Quantcast


Which Phillies Player Will Have a Big Season?

Posted by Pat Gallen, Tue, January 15, 2013 08:03 AM | Comments: 48
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts

Don't forget about Doc. (AP)

We’ve gathered all of our Phillies Nation contributors in one room and figured out which players will have the biggest seasons. If they all come true, the Phillies should have no problem winning 100 games.

Seriously, we’ve got our opinions on who will be come up large this year for the Phils. What say you?

————————–

“I expect a big year from _____________”

Corey Seidman: Michael Young, who I don’t think is as “done” as some. Young still had an elite line-drive rate last season and I could see him hitting something like .282/.338/.415 for the Phillies, which would be quite valuable compared to the ugly third-base offense they’ve gotten since Scott Rolen left.

Ian Riccaboni: Phillippe Aumont, who enters 2013 as a player for the first time healthy with a defined role at a defined level. When Aumont was acquired in December 2009, Aumont was a starter-turned-reliever who was about to become a reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever in 2010. He has faced unfortunate luck health-wise but enters 2013 with health and continuously improving control on a crazy curve that he has started to throw for strikes. Just turning 24, Aumont will become a premier reliever for the Phillies in 2013.

Eric Seidman: Roy Halladay. A 30 GS, 225 IP, 2.60 ERA, 5+ K/BB year. Because he’s Roy Halladay, I love him, and the Phillies won’t go anywhere if he isn’t Halladay-esque.

Jay Floyd: Phillippe Aumont. With his high-90′s fastball and filthy slider, this imposing 6-foot-7-inch hurler, building off of his success at the big league level last year, will get his control under wraps, lower his walks issued and could become a challenger for the set up role out of the bull pen.

Jon Nisula: Domonic Brown. I think this is finally his time to shine and show Phillies fans why he was a top prospect and why he was an untouchable trading piece in the deal for Roy Halladay. I think he has the capability of hitting around 25 home runs and driving in 90 RBIs this year.

Don M.: Antonio Bastardo. Bastardo had a great 2011 season (.264 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 146 in 64 appearances), but struggled to live up to his lofty expectations last year. Newly-signed free agent Mike Adams is penciled-in for the setup role, meaning Bastardo will be a vital weapon in navigating the all-important and overlooked 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Bastardo’s career mark of 11.6 SO/9 will be what the Phillies need when it’s time to stop a rally, and help get the ball into Jonathan Papelbon’s hands.

Ryan Dinger: Chase Utley. After missing a large chunk of games for the second year in a row last season, Utley came back and posted a .365 OBP, a .793 OPS and continued to post elite numbers on the bases and above average numbers in the field. Reports have Utley being in good shape for the start of 2013, and, assuming those are accurate, his numbers should be even better with a full season of plate appearances. Plus, there is the little matter of a contract year for Utley, which has proven to be a great motivator for players in the past.

Brian Michael: Ryne Sandberg. I want to believe the hype surrounding our rookie third-base and infield coach, but I’d like at least see something in 2013 that shows he’s ready to take the reins. It could be improved base-running, a higher fielding percentage, even a well-managed game after Charlie gets tossed.

Amanda Orr: Cole Hamels. Even though he already has his contract, he will show that it was well deserved. He will show that he can be the ace of the staff even with Halladay and Lee in the rotation. I think he will make a push for the Cy Young Award, assuming he’s healthy. But he has proved that he can still pitch well even if he isn’t quite 100%. I predict 2013 will be his best season in the majors to this point in his career.

Pat Gallen: Domonic Brown. Let’s face it, he has to break out or those grumblings of him being a bust will grow so loud, the Phillies might be forced to give up on him. I’ve been saying for two-plus years now that Brown needs time and needs a full season before we truly know what he is. But if he can’t stay healthy or doesn’t cash in on his opportunity, then the Phillies, and the fans, will be disappointed. If Dom hits 18+ homers and sports an .820+ OPS, the Phils may have a solid right fielder.

"I expect a big year from ________________"

View Results

Avatar of Pat Gallen

About Pat Gallen

Pat Gallen has written 1675 articles on Phillies Nation.

Pat is Editor-in-Chief of Phillies Nation. He also covers the Phils for 97.5 FM in Philly.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 JMills

    I think Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will have good bounce back years but I predict Darin Ruf will win ROY with .280 32hr 108 rbi.

     
  • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

    How the mighty have fallen. Looks like the nominees are ones chosen to be big year candidates from the staff which reduces Ryan Howard to the other category. If you asked in advance if 1 of the 10 staff writers would have selected Howard, I’d have avoided maybe and no. What a resounding level of lowered expectations.

    Two of the last 3 years, I’ve had a sense of which Phillie would have a markedly up trend year. Didn’t have one last year, same this year. So that in mind, I’d be more prone to think in terms of out of the if candidates, and there are several, who is it most important that they have a big year. Even that’s a tough call, particularly since if Chase has a Chase year, and Doc isn’t even on a par with last year, it likely doesn’t matter a whole lot.

    Reactions to some of the selections….

    Young…all of Corey’s points on Young are offensive. It’s not fair to not give a long time professional a chance, but objectively, what amount of offense will be given back defensively is the question. If one expects a big year out of him, which isn’t impossible, it has to overcome the unlikely area of defensive performance. .320 and poor range only goes so far.

    Roy Halladay…Maybe it’s not an oversimplification to pass judgement on one’s personality based on their view of Halladay. These negative fools running around chanting Halladay’s done oughta take a look at how he’s recovered from past injuries. I get the 35/36, which shouldn’t be confused with 38/39, and realize he might not be a level 2 CY guy (Stras and CK are level 1′s as rare examples), but it shouldn’t be shocking to see him reach Eric’s goals, although 2.6 is probably optimistic. 225 IP’d be sweet.

    Cole…Amanda says push for the CY. It’d be a thrill and a half to watch this guy start to finish grow to a CY winner, and at least become a debatable HOF candidate. He sort of reminds me of John Smoltz. Smoltz is a more realistic HOF candidate because he had a couple years of terrific pen work which helped amplify his story, and diversify his stats. Keep him in the rotation, and a lot of good years, but only 1 truly spectacular one reduce him to the Blyleven, Morris, Cone Mussina level of debate. I just wonder if Cole can breakthrough to an even higher level and really kick ass on a multiple year level. Chances are not great. In the discussion is plenty good, mind you, but that extra step is still to be taken.

    Final thought, nobody picked Cliff, who could/should/ will win 3 times as many games and hit the over on “whatevers” as he gets sick of questions on the difference in years 12 and 13. Nobody picked Jimmy, who, if he somehow, some way finally had a good H1, like last year’s H2 would lose a lot of nicknames. I suspect both have bigger years than most of the nominees. Most, of course, is a gray term. But within that gray is a lot of likely.

     
    • Posts: 0 George

      “.320 and poor range only goes so far.”

      Maybe so, but those kinds of numbers have kept players on the field a long time, and they’d certainly beat a platoon of great range, not bat Galvis and so-so range, maybe bat of Frandsen. I just wish Young played a less important position than 3rd.

      Otherwise, your comments about certain others like Lee, Rollins, and Halladay are very valid. (I, too, think the projected (by some) demise of Halladay is premature, and that Lee will certainly get better run support and more wins.

       
      • Posts: 0 George

        Should read “…no bat Galvis. Not sure how that “t” snuck in there at the end of “no!”

         
      • Posts: 1135 EricL

        Avatar of EricL

        No one position is really more important than any other. The Phillies won the World Series in 2008 with Pedro Feliz hitting an anemic .249/.302/.402, which was about 20% worse than the league average.

        And I’m not sure why you think all defense, weak bat is worse than all bat, no defense. If you produce a run offensively that’s basically the same as preventing one defensively. There really isn’t a reason why one would be more important than the other.

         
      • Posts: 0 George

        Eric, you should tell that “No one position is really more important than any other” stuff to those folks at FanGraphs. I don’t disagree on an offensive basis, but when it comes to defense, I’d rather have the main strength on the infield if the team as a whole isn’t strong. Especially with guys like Lannan on the pitching staff.

         
  • Posts: 25 BeyondInfinity

    Avatar of BeyondInfinity

    i say ben revere will continue is ‘getting better’streak and will hit .315/.341/.362

     
  • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

    Top to bottom, this team is due. The roster is aging, for sure but you have to feel pretty good about this team’s chances because last year was so bad.

    Halladay… at 36 (in May), you have to wonder how long he’ll hold up but Greg Maddux won 98 games after his age 35 season so I think Halladay is certainly capable of a 16 win season, which is find by me.

    Howard… I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about him. Under normal circumstances, I’d be optimistic because he has always been a hard worker (showing up early and in shape) but he’s a newlywed building a big house which means his focus is probably a bit fractured. That being said, he can hit .260/35HR in his sleep, which is fine by me.

    Young… something to prove. An opportunity to extend his career – he has an outside chance to reach 3,000 hits and I think he has a real chip on his shoulder (he was unappreciated in Texas, in my opinion).

    Ruf/Brown… why not be excited? An infusion of youth is never a bad thing.

    Revere… a real threat to steal 40-50 bases. At CBP, his defense will look awesome. Maybe a GG… maybe a stolen base crown.

    Lee/Hamels… as solid as they come.

    Back end of the bullpen… insured by Adams and Papelbon, LLC.

    Aumont/Bastardo/et. al… we should be pretty good in 6th-7th.

    Utley… if not Utley, Galvis. I want to believe Utley can pull a rabbit out of his hat in the final guaranteed year of his contract but I can’t. But even if he can’t, Galvish is a nice replacement, right? Maybe Utley figures out how to handle the offseason better… we can hope.

    Chooch… he took adderall. Are we supposed to be down on him because he took adderall? Is anyone really surprised? Kratz will be fine.

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryne Duren

    chuck i couldn’t agree more with you pal! i think you’re dead on. i’ve been down for quite a while after this last season, and predicted at best a third place finish. however the closer spring training gets, my optimism starts to increase.the brave will be the braves. they haven’t improved that much. yeah they gor upton but he’s not willie mays! and chipper is gone and they’re usually not the same without him. their pen is great, yes but can it perform as great as the previous 2-3 years? that is tough to do. there has to be some kind of tail off. the starters are good, but so are ours and our pen looks to be much better. now the nats? we all know they’re good. but repeating to win the division two straight years is tough for any team. so with that all said i’ve now with my optimism soaring predict that the division is up for grabs by us the nats and the braves!

     
  • Posts: 0 joecatz

    I have four predictions for 2013.

    1. The Phillies pitcher that will have the most “all star buzz” at the break will be Kyle Kendrick.
    2. The player with the most trade value on the major league roster at the deadline will be Dom Brown.
    3. Michael Young will put up a 300/350/440 line with 30 errors. people will scream to resin him after Asche has a subpar season at Lehigh
    4. By October, ben revere will be the most popular figure in Philly sports.

     
    • Posts: 0 Ryne Duren

      yo joe!i’m not a big KK fan, but i like your prediction. i hope you’re right. i’m not predicting him to be that good, what i’m hoping for is that he’s good enough along with pettibone pitching great in the minors that they can use KK for bait to get something they need. and as far as brown goes. i’m not a big fan of his either but again i hope you’re right. however just the opposite of KK. since we don’t have a lot of depth at the minor league level in outfielders i hope he’s doing good as to the point of keeping him. unless of course he becomes a package with KK to get us a really good right fielder. but hey if they’re both doing as good as we would like then there’s no reason to trade them anyway. besides if young doen’t work out and asche is doing good there’s no reason to trade for a 3rd baseman.

       
    • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

      It’s impossible that Young have 30 errors. The question with him is range. I’m a little hesitant to form too specific an image of how he’ll do defensively without allowing for the benefit of some steady work at 3rd, but in general, I’d expect him to be relatively good on balls he gets to. To commit 30 errors, you need to have very good range, and an inaccurate throwing arm.

      Didn’t agree with any of your predictions, but should they all come to fruition, the Phils will be a solid contender. So I hope you’re right..

       
  • Posts: 0 Bart Shart

    Dom Brown will make the All-Star team this year and bat about .309 with 28 homers.

    Ben Revere will bat over .300 and lead the league in steals, while playing immense defense.

    Ryan Howard will be back full-force, with 44 homers, 128 RBI’s and a .282average.

    Darrin Ruf will hit 26 homers , drive in 88 runs and bat .312.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Next year’s 3b crop will have Michael Young, Youkilis (again), … Martin Prado (if you call him a 3b), Alberto Callaspo, and Wilson Betemit ………….. there are at least some options there for 1-year-deals if Asche isn’t ready for MLB

    Kyle Kendrick has been pretty good the past two years.. I’d love to see him have a breakout season, giving the Phillies the confidence to run him out there every 5th day with a chance to win

     
    • Posts: 1135 EricL

      Avatar of EricL

      If that’s what there is to choose from and Asche isn’t ready just give me Frandsen. He’s not going to be great, but grandpas Young & Youkilis do nothing for me and I doubt Prado or Callaspo sign a one year deal, and there’s a reason Betemit, for his career, averages about 230 PA a year, and it’s not because he’s good.

       
  • Posts: 1135 EricL

    Avatar of EricL

    I predict a big year from Freddy Galvis.

    Various injuries to Utley, Young and Rollins will force Freddy into something like 400 ABs, in which he actually shows he’s capable of batting at the major league level. Not that he’ll add much with his bat, but it’ll be good enough. Expect line of .250/.300/.420, with stellar defense, which makes him a passable daily player at the major league level, especially facing righties, against whom he shows a significant platoon advantage.

     
    • Posts: 0 Don M

      I was more than impressed with how Galvis played at 2B last year … i’d love to see him hit the slash lines you put out: .250/.300/.420 !

       
      • Posts: 1135 EricL

        Avatar of EricL

        Me too,although the unspoken downside here is that Utley, Rollins and Young all miss significant time.

        Also, let’s drop that SLG down to like .400, to be a little more realistic.

        Through nearly 60 games in Venezuela he’s batting .300/.351/.432, so we can’t really expect him to match that against major league pitchers.

         
    • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

      i”nto something like 400 ABs, in which he actually shows he’s capable of batting at the major league level.”

      hmmmmmm….I believe I’ll take the under on 335 plate appearances. Not that I’d throw out risk management thinking if I really made a wager on that, but being as it’s the optimistic time of year, I’d guess he gets more like 250, and I might even add if that. We’ll see.

       
  • Posts: 2974 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    I’ve been saying for awhile now that if both Utley and Howard play for a full year that the Phillies will win 90 games and get to the playoffs. Of those two, I think Chase will have the bigger year….at least by the standards that we as a fanbase expect. But I fully expect Howard to hit 30+ bombs and drive in 100+ runs. … which is fine by me.

     
    • Posts: 1135 EricL

      Avatar of EricL

      90 wins (and I think that’s at the top end of what this team is capable of) is no guarantee of a playoff spot. Tampa Bay won 90 games last year and was on the outside looking in, and it would have had them in third place in the NL East last year.

      The thing is, their offense really didn’t change after Utley and Howard returned last season. The big difference between the first half and the second half was that the pitching staff dramatically improved over the 2nd half. See this: http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/8/3850240/what-do-we-make-of-the-phillies-95-win-pace-in-the-second-half-of-2012

       
      • Posts: 2974 Chuck A.

        Avatar of Chuck A.

        Never said it was a guarantee…nothing is. But I DO think that, while it may seem as though 90 wins is at the top end, as you say, that it’s very possible. And, you can’t discount the fact that your #3 and #4 hitters being out of the lineup until June and July (late July for them BOTH to be in there) had a major impact.

         
      • Posts: 1135 EricL

        Avatar of EricL

        No, I don’t disagree, 90 wins is certainly possible. A little BABIP luck, both from their hitters and pitchers, a relatively injury-free year, and some HR/FB luck and they can win 90 games.

         
  • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

    I’m not afraid of the Braves… they have a couple of young guys in Freeman and Heyward who are going to be very good but their rotation consists of Medlen (very good), Hudson (ehh), Minor, Maholm and three other guys who have proven nothing at the big league level. They just don’t do it for me and BJ Upton is not the savior. The Nats are clearly the team to beat right now but they’re young and under a lot of pressure. Their lineup is really good but LaRoche regresses and without him, they don’t really have an RBI “fear” guy. Their rotation is really strong… again, clearly the team to beat but anything can happen.

     
    • Posts: 1135 EricL

      Avatar of EricL

      “their rotation consists of Medlen (very good), Hudson (ehh), Minor, Maholm and three other guys”

      The Braves have a 7-man rotation?!

       
      • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

        Check their depth chart… they have seven names listed. It’s a pick one of three guys (none of which should scare anyone unless Julio Teheran figures things out).

         
    • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

      “The Nats are clearly the team to beat right now but they’re young and under a lot of pressure.”

      Couple months ago, I read a post by a guy who federal law should require they post under the name of looney tune. Guy said Washington might fall victim to complacency. Now this particular foool, though I’m no closer to inside their heads showed what I perceive as a misunderstanding of the Washington club.That ain’t no set up for complacency roared the crowd, strike 3, the umpire said.

      And not that this point is even on the same side of laughable, but I do think there’s a misconception implied. The under a lot of pressure has truth in it, although one could flip a coin as to wheteher they are under more pressure than a good number of teams around The Game. Essentially, they still have nucleus beyond this year, and don’t appear strapped for cash if they need to add.

      But the point I might contest more is that they are young. There’s some valuble experience on the books for several of their young players that applies to the more proper perspective of experience than age.

      Under pressure? Yes. But not in a lot of unique ways. Young? Not to my way of thinking.

      That said, they aren’t a lock division pick to me. Favorites, but not locks.

       
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        “That said, they aren’t a lock division pick to me. Favorites, but not locks.”

        Care to revise your statement, sir?

        Perhaps. The Nats just inked Raffy Soriano for 2 years, 28 mil. Those boys sure are going after it.

         
      • Posts: 5020 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        The Nats you say? Don’t you mean the Boras’s? Holy conspiracy Batman!

         
  • Posts: 0 Floyd

    Michael Young did not have to leave Texas. I think he wanted to come here to prove a point. I also believe that his presence/attitude win energize the club.

     
    • Posts: 0 hk

      He came here because Texas had no place for him to play.

       
  • Posts: 5020 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    My pick is Josh WIllingham. I realize that they haven’t actually traded for him yet, but let’s not let minor details get in the way. I expect a big year from Josh when he gets here.

     
  • Posts: 120 Dave P

    Avatar of Dave P

    Not quite related, but here’s some good news – fangraphs article talking about Roman Quinn being a better prospect than the highly touted speed demon Billy Hamilton. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/roman-quinn-a-better-billy-hamilton/

    So maybe Roman Quinn will have a big year. :P

     
  • Posts: 1 cos7

    Avatar of cos7

    I expect a big year from Brown its now or never for Brown in this town. As for all the articles in the papers stating how inexperienced and disappointing our OF is going to be not sure I agree I’m actually excited to see what Brown, Revere, and Ruf can do..It’s been awhile since this organization has handed the keys to a position over to a minor leaguer..I feel a healthy Brown will have a productive season and Ruf has shown he can hit throughout the minors the past 2 seasons and winter ball I think it will carry over into the majors defense is going to be the issue there

     
  • Posts: 0 Betasigmadeltashag

    A big year is relative I have my hopes for guys like Ruf and Brown. For Brown to have a big year it gave to consist of avg to above average defense and play most days no matter who is pitching with an avg of .270-.300 23-28 HRs 80-100 RBIs Ruf just has gone decent in the field .265-.280 15 HRs 75 RBIs and show he can play every day. But the two I expect to have good years are Doc and Howard because I think they are going to be healthy and have something to prove that they are still elite

     
  • Posts: 1190 Manny

    Avatar of Manny

    ‘m also expecting Dom Brown to break out into a solid corner outfielder this season. But I think the key to it all will be Doc. If he can get close to 2010/2011 form, then we’re in good shape –and even if our lineup is banged up at times– solid pitching can hold us up. However, if Doc doesn’t bounce back, odds are that what whatever Howard, Utley, J-roll, and Brown do won’t matter. We won’t get a playoff spot with a bad version of Doc, KK, and Lannan starting 3 out of every 5 games.

     
    • Posts: 0 brooks

      Your point about Doc is well heeded. Regardless of how well the offense does (I think Bart was probably the most optimistic but his post was strictly offensive if you will), without pitching the Phils will not be serious contenders. Doc, Lee, Hamels all need to win in double figures with KK and the bottom of the BP keeping pace and keeping games close enough for the offense to strike.
      My big hope is that Howard will hit 40 (+) hrs again with a decent BA, Ruf, Revere and (gulp) Brown do solidly stack up in the OF, Utley, Young and Jimmy have average years for them – which coupled with a decent staff would give us the 90 (+) wins and at least a WC
      Lets just get it started already..

       
  • Posts: 0 Wade Foraker

    I see Darin Ruf coming back and having much of the success he had at the end of last year

     
  • Posts: 0 Wade Foraker

    I see Darin Ruf coming back and continuing the success he had at the end of last year. A .280 something average with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I think people need to realize that if Ruf hit 30 HRs last year, that would’ve been good for 10th overall in the NL ………

    especially if he’s part of a platoon, I think we need to limit expectations for him a little, as he won’t get as many ABs as some people think, unless he proves early that he can handle RHP ……….he doesn’t have much experience above the AA-level …..so i’m a little surprised to see so many people basically expecting to see him produce at an ALL-STAR level

     
    • Posts: 1190 Manny

      Avatar of Manny

      Agreed! I don’t get where all these lofty expectations for Ruf are coming from. I mean, they’re even more extreme than those who expected JMJ to replicate his 2011 and Francisco to be the next Werth… Both of them had more experience in the majors than Ruf… yet somehow we’re expecting Ruf to be amazing, ROY, etc.

      Wouldn’t say it’s impossible, but folks here need to recalibrate their expectations when it comes to Ruf.

       
  • Posts: 0 click through the next web site

    Appreciate the recommendation. Will try it out.| click through the next web site http://dlkfsldkflksdlk.com

     
  • Posts: 0 pay day loans uk

    If you are going for most excellent contents like me, only pay a visit this website everyday since it presents feature contents, thanks| pay day loans uk http://instantpaydayloansuk.webeden.co.uk

     
  • Posts: 0 payday loans

    Your mode of explaining all in this paragraph is truly nice, every one can without difficulty be aware of it, Thanks a lot.| payday loans http://instantonlinepayday.co.uk

     
  • Posts: 0 campus book rental coupons

    hi amazing topic campus book rental coupons http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/2/prweb10468724.htm

     
  • Posts: 0 bh cosmetics coupon

    hi wonderful article bh cosmetics coupon http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/3/prweb10431320.htm

     
  • Posts: 0 fabric.com discount

     
  • Posts: 0 http://www.prweb.com/releases/Shutterfly/Coupons/prweb10850147.htm

     
 
Leave a Comment

>> Create a new Phillies Nation account.
>> Already registered with Phillies Nation? Log in here.
>> Comment without logging in:






Please ensure your comments comply with our Comment Policy.