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Morgan, Biddle Sneak into Law’s Top 100

Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Tue, February 05, 2013 04:02 PM | Comments: 25
Minor Leagues, Prospecting

http://mobile.milb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_605388.jpgLeft-handers Adam Morgan and Jesse Biddle were the only two Phillies in Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospect List (Insider Only) released today. The big surprise? Law ranked Morgan higher than Biddle.

Law ranked Morgan #92, stating:

He’s also shown he can win games with any of those three pitches as his go-to pitch in pitchers’ counts, with impressive feel and command of all three offerings.

and

I see a solid No. 4 starter here very soon with the upside of a good No. 3.

While Law placed Biddle at number 95, having this to say:

Biddle’s stuff will be good enough that he should be a back-end starter even if his command never quite gets to average, but has the potential to be a No. 2 if it develops into a real strength.

and

Biddle is the projection guy to complement fellow lefty Adam Morgan’s higher probability in the Phillies’ system, which has some depth but doesn’t have a lot of guys close to the majors who will make an impact.

Discuss!

Avatar of Ian Riccaboni

About Ian Riccaboni

Ian Riccaboni has written 867 articles on Phillies Nation.

Ian's athletic achievements include getting stuffed by NBA center Aaron Gray in high school and hitting .179 over four years for NYU against D-III, NAIA, JuCo, and NCBA schools. Ian hopes his athletic successes will help him achieve his dream of becoming the underground Bob Uecker.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

    This, he guessed, is off topic.

    Ryan Braun’s name is in Biogenesis records and MLB will investigate his association with PED clinic.

    And the hits just keep on comin.’

     
  • Posts: 0 Jaron B

    Law’s ranking of Morgan higher than Biddle… very intriguing, with the tiebreaker as “probability of success at the ML level.” After yesterday’s post that Law ranks our farm system as 27th out of 30 teams, I don’t put much stock into Law’s rankings. However, I still would rank Biddle no. 1 on my list of top Phillies prospects even if I agree with Law’s conclusion. Only time will tell and ANYTHING can happen in baseball.

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    Farm does not have much.

     
    • Posts: 0 Double Trouble Del

      How are they supposed to have much when you finish at the top of your division for five years
      lose draft picks for signing FAs and trade pieces away for needs, real or perceived? Not only should the farm provide major league ready players for the team but also provide pieces to acquire existing MLB talent. The Phillies chose to use the farm system to acquire Pence and Oswalt which were nearly universally applauded at the time the trades were made.

       
      • Posts: 0 JMills

        The Phillies should sign Cubans that’s how. Cespedes and Solar cost nothing but money which the Phils have plenty of.

         
      • Posts: 0 Steve Bosell

        The Cardinals are perennial contenders, and were Law’s top rated farm system. I don’t remember the Oswalt or Pence deals being “universally applauded”. In fact, there were plenty of detractors on this very blog. It’s one thing to trade a package of players for a guy you’ll have under team control for three or four seasons, but when you’re receiving a short term rental like Oswalt and Pence it becomes a risky proposition.

        The net return for Jonathan Villar, Anthony Gose, J.A. Happ, Domingo Santana, Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, and Josh Zeid is now just Seth Rosin and Tommy Joseph.

         
      • Posts: 0 Double Trouble Del

        Only on this web site where negativity generally rules were those signings not welcome.

         
      • Posts: 0 hk

        Those deals were met with a mix of positive and negative reviews – probably more negative than positive – on Crashburn Alley and the website formerly known as Brotherly Glove.

         
      • Posts: 0 Steve Bosell

        Exactly. Statements like the “Oswalt & Pence deals were universally applauded” or the mantra of “everyone liked the Howard contract at the time” are just flat out disingenuous. I think some people just have selective memories.

         
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        In reply to Steve Bosell’s comments…

        “The Cardinals are perennial contenders, and were Law’s top rated farm system.”

        As recently as either 2 or 3 years ago, the Cardinals farm system was considered pretty shot, aside from young pitcher Shelby Miller. Maybe that speaks to better running of their organization than the Phillies the last couple years, but it bears pointing out that their last 2 years of contending and improving their farm system is rare.

        ” I don’t remember the Oswalt or Pence deals being “universally applauded”.

        I don’t remember much criticism of the Oswalt trade, particularly since part of the agreement was for Houston to pick up a lot of Oswalt pay.

         
      • Posts: 0 Steve Bosell

        They really slipped in 2010, but I like the way they run their organization. They seem to have a couple of new kids contributing at the big league level just about every season. Going by Law’s rankings:

        2009: 6th
        2010: 29th
        2011: 14th
        2012: 4th
        2013: 1st

        The Cardinals have proven that winning at the big league level and maintaining a good farm system don’t have to be mutually exclusive. Some readers seem to believe that it can’t be done – obviously it can.

         
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        Success isn’t solely a luck factor, but perhaps the Cardinals have combined the 2. They positioned themselves to have 5 of the first 59 picks in last year’s draft, that probably helped their cause, and the year they won it all, you talk about a maligned trade, when they dealt Colby Rasmus, the wolves were hollering from all corners of the world, and with the bullpen help they got, it was critical to stepping from hardly a contender at mid year, to a parade. Many different plots could, and still might develop, but having the balls to let Pujols go secured one of those 5 picks, I assume enabling a strengthening of their farm system. Now, they might go after Bud Norris to replace Carpenter. He wouldn’t be the first to carry a completely different looking back of the baseball card after donning a Cardinal uniform. Contending and carrying a well thought of farm system can indeed be done, but it ain’t easy. And the Cardinals are a long standing model organization (with blips, mind you), so using them as a standard is something many clubs relate to as a foreign language. At least the Phils have had a good run while other historic non gold performers have less to show for it.

        Atlanta, the last couple decades is another terriifc example of a club that contends frequently, and traditionally carries a well thought of system. So now we have twice as many examples of clubs that do it.

         
      • Posts: 0 George

        To JMills:

        The Phils were in on both Cespedes and Soler, from what I’d read. Sometimes it isn’t just money, but where the player wants to be. Also, Cespedes wanted a ML spot right away, and not many teams had a place for him, and many scouts didn’t think he was ready.

        One other thing: an ML contract for either of those guys would have pushed the Phils past the luxury tax limit. They have money, but not unlimited money.

         
    • Posts: 0 George

      To Ken Bland:

      Perhaps the Cards positioned themselves well because they realized that 29th wasn’t a very good rating.

      I also think that’s why Amaro has done things differently since last trade deadline. He traded four players for prospects, (Thome, Victorino, Blanton, and Pence) and in the offseason didn’t go after any free agents tied to draft pick compensation. Those prospects are some of the reasons they have anyone decent in their system.

       
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        Here’s why the Cards 5 in the first 59 picks last draft, or certainly a lot in early rounds if that isn’t the actual exact amount..

        The Cardinals received pick No. 36 for losing Pujols, No. 52 for losing reliever Octavio Dotel and No. 58 for losing Jackson to the Nationals. Plus they got the number 19 pick from the Angels for losing Pujols.

        So the Phils have followed similar course with the guys they’ve lost, suggesting their is ample room for a quick turnaround with successful drafting. On paper, they have a shot at matching St. Louis’s contend and build a system if they can contend this year with those accumulated picks.

        And it’s important to remember this isn’t exact science. Ratings are opinionated projections, albeit by qualified people. But even within that framework, as I mentioned a couple days back, Sickle and Law had the Phils and Braves flipped between 20 and 27. That’s really a serious percentage gap. A successful 2013, however it’s defined, and one guy ranking the Phils about 6, the other 11 a year from now, and there’s niot much to complain about.

         
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr

    Maybe im reading this wrong. He ranks Morgan higher but then says he can be a back end starter. He then says Biddle has potential to be a # 2 starter. Therefore by logic shouldnt Biddle be ranked higher than Morgan in his rankings?

     
    • Posts: 0 hk

      Law probably feels there’s a greater likelihood that Morgan achieves both his expected level and also his upside whereas Biddle, in part because he’s one year younger and has pitched a one level below Morgan, has more variability (a chance to be better but also, in Law’s opinion, a chance to be worse) to his possible results.

      Let me put it to you another way. If I was comparing the prospects this year for two common stocks and I told you the following, which would you choose?:

      Company A: There’s a 10% chance, if everything goes right, that the stock will grow by 50% this year and a 90% chance that the stock will grow by 4%.

      Company B: There’s a 20% chance, if everything goes right, that the stock will grow by 25% this year and a 80% chance that the stock will grow by 6%.

       
  • Posts: 71 RatBastardNJ

    Avatar of RatBastardNJ

    Not a big Keith Law fan here. I kind of group him in the same category as Mel Kiper Jr. Both are extremely arrogant and come off as feeling that their opinion is the only one that counts and waves off anyone else who may have a different perspective. Law is purely sabermatrics and I just don’t know if he looks at the minor league players with the eye of a MLB scout. I would trust other judgements way before I would trust the view point of Keith Law.

     
    • Posts: 443 Ian Riccaboni

      Avatar of Ian Riccaboni

      You’d be interested to read his Top 100, then. He has really insightful things to say about Biddle’s arm angle among other things, much more like a traditional scout.

       
    • Posts: 385 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      The dude literally watches dozens, if not hundreds, of minor league and fall league games a year. You can’t judge prospects on stats but on their tools, which rely a lot more on seeing guys in person. He’s worked in the front office before (Blue Jays) and has numerous other job offers on MLB clubs, so *they* obviously value his opinion.

      Also, what the hell does “purely sabermetrics” even mean?

       
  • Posts: 0 Righteous Robert

    Tribute to Harry Kalas as Why would anyone Close a Comments section ?

    HARRY got #1 for His Day from Total PHILLY Phan:

    My #1 Celebrity Birthday person for March 26th is
    Harry Kalas (Would have been 76 in 2012) 1936
    Born: Napierville, Illinois / Nickname: Harry the K
    Spouse: Eileen (198? – present) 3 children
    Trade mark: Known for home run call, “That ball’s outta here!” / Narrator for NFL Films.
    Two movie roles: 1st at age 48 in ‘The Bear’ (1984) as Commentator,
    & next at age 62 in ‘Express: Aisle to Glory’ (1998) as the Narrator.
    Baltimore Bob states “I consider the 2 Philly guy Harry Kalas & John Facenda
    (born 8 August 1913, Portsmouth, VA & died 25 September 1984, Philadelphia, PA) along
    with Rod Serling as being the 3 Greatest All-Time voices in Entertainment/Narration History”.
    As you know Harry is the Narrator for NFL Films after John Facenda had passed in 1984.
    Baltimore Bob also states “Well I guess we can also add actor James Earl Jones
    who as you know first started as the voice of Darth Vader in ‘Star Wars’ (1977).”
    Baltimore Bob talked to Harry on a few occasions.
    28 July 2002: Inducted into the Baseball Hall Of Fame at Cooperstown, NY.
    Summary of Accomplishments:
    Called first game at Houston’s Astrodome: 4-12-65 (as Baltimore Bob watched on TV) ,
    Kalas made his major-league debut in 1965 with the Houston Astros,
    replacing Al Helfer and working alongside Gene Elston and Loel Passe.
    Phillies pitcher Chris Short getting the win with the aid of a Dick Allen HR.
    Called first game at Philadelphia’s Veterans Stadium: 4-10-71 (& Baltimore Bob was there),
    2002 Ford C. Frick Award winner,
    (presented to a broadcaster for major contributions to baseball).
    Called last game at Philadelphia’s Veterans Stadium: 9-28-03 (& Baltimore Bob was there),
    Also attended by both of Baltimore Bob’s brothers and his one nephew.
    Called first game at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park: 4-12-04,
    Baltimore Bob did not win Lottery drawing but him and brother Andrew did attend
    1st non-official game against Cleveland a few days earlier.
    Broadcast Pioneers of Philadelphia 2004 Person of the Year,
    Called six no-hitters,
    Called six National League Championship Series,
    Called three Phillies World Series (& Baltimore Bob attended two of them 1983 & 1993),
    Named Pennsylvania Sportscaster of the Year 18 times.
    2009 Update: Died at age 73 on April 13th 2009.
    Baltimore Bob attended Tribute at CBP on Saturday April 18th 2009.
    Following Kalas’ death, fellow Philadelphia Phillies announcer
    Scott Graham took over his Inside the NFL duties.

    Jessica McClure (26) 1986
    - Born: ?, Texas.
    - Jessica McClure became famous at 18 months after getting herself trapped in a
    - Midland, Texas well in October 1987.
    - She had been left unattended for just a moment in the backyard of her
    - aunt’s daycare center when she fell into 8-inch wide pipe that was 22 feet below ground.
    - Rescuers worked for almost 3 days to free her.
    - The story gained worldwide attention and she was dubbed ‘Baby Jessica.’
    - Her frantic parents and an army of 400 rescue workers
    - and volunteers attempted to rescue her while a nation waited.
    - Jessica was finally pulled out on Oct. 16, 1987, amid a sea of cameras and onlookers.
    - After five weeks of recovery and six surgeries, Jessica entered a media maelstrom,
    - including press conferences, meeting President Reagan, and the establishment of a
    - multi-million dollar trust fund (to remain untouched until she turns 25).
    - Her parents have kept her away from the media since she was rescued.
    - 2011: She gets her money – lucky broad.

    Adrian Peterson (27) 1985
    – Born: Palestine, Texas) / Height: 6 ft 1 in (1.85 m) – Weight: 217 lb (98 kg)
    – Birth Name: Adrian Lewis Peterson / Nickname: “A.D.”(for “All Day”) or “Purple Jesus”,
    – American football running back for the Minnesota Vikings of the National Football League.
    – NFL 2012 MVP.

    Interesting Group of people born March 26th.

    Reparations for Vietnam Vets
    Righteous Robert
    Baltimore Bob

     
    • Posts: 2896 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      I need more time to read a post such as this.

       
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        I empathize with your plight. I’ll suggest a quicker time comittment to getting the point. Go rent the movie Forrest Gump. Rather similar themes in some ways.

         
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr

    Thanks HK i think i understand now just the wording seemed off to me…(:

     
  • Posts: 0 Steve Bosell

    BTW, this first word of this post is incorrect.

     
 
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