Rapid Reaction: “Blow Up the Phillies!”
Posted by Alex Lee, Wed, March 13, 2013 08:16 AM | Comments: 16
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts
Doc was crushed on Tuesday. He could be part of the “blow up” eventually. (AP)
From an injury standpoint, this spring has gone about as well as the Phillies could have hoped (except for Roy Halladay getting crushed on Tuesday by the Tigers). After a disastrous 2012, optimism has begun to regenerate throughout the Delaware Valley and beyond, with a handful of national baseball pundits adjusting their previously underwhelming expectations for this team accordingly. The key word there is some.
Perhaps by now you’ve read Jonah Keri’s scathing take on the Phillies from Grantland.com – titled “Blow Up the Phillies!” – which from a timing standpoint, almost seems like an intentional attempt at pouring cold water over the collective hopes of Phillies faithful. Keri takes a big-picture look at the Phillies, but his question basically boils down to the following:
“Four months from now, if Philly appears on its way to another mediocre season, should the team cash in their biggest trade chips for younger players who could help build a winning team for 2014 and beyond?”
Keri’s answer to that question is an emphatic yes – so much so that he implies that, in Ruben Amaro Jr.’s shoes, he would even consider moving the non-expiring contracts of Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee in addition to Halladay and Chase Utley, who will be free agents after this season.
Essentially, should the Phillies disappoint, Keri is advocating a July fire sale – not a retool, but a rebuild, citing the age of the team’s core and a dearth of near-ready prospects as the reasons why. Using historical examples, he says any other decision could be catastrophic for the competitive future of the team. In doing so, Keri is undoubtedly a little harsh on the Phils. But is he wrong? The answer, as usual, is a little complicated.
While Keri doesn’t mention it, it is important to note the Phillies have already shown that they won’t hesitate to cash in their trade chips when a season’s outlook is gloomy. Last year the team moved Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton once it realized the playoffs were an improbability.
But a fire sale is a whole different animal, especially in a baseball-crazed market like Philadelphia in which the home team is on the brink of a television deal that should boost their payroll for the foreseeable future. If July rolls around and the Phillies are floundering 10 games below .500, they should absolutely look to cash in their trade chips, as Keri suggests, but they need to be strategic in doing so.
With names like Utley, Halladay and Carlos Ruiz in the final years of their contract, cutting ties with those organizational mainstays will be particularly painful. But it might be necessary. If it becomes clear this current roster won’t cut it from a performance standpoint, the Phillies need to carefully identify the veterans that are part of the future and sell the rest, regardless of sentimentality or name power.
That is where Keri’s logic is questionable. A fire sale, from a public relations standpoint, would undoubtedly be a disaster with the fan base, particularly with the television deal looming. The Red Sox did it last year – moving Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford – but that clubhouse situation was as toxic as any in recent memory. The Phillies situation is a little different.
Players like Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee are still performing at levels that justify their contracts. Assuming the health and production we’re seeing from Ryan Howard this spring proves real, he is also still a valuable centerpiece, albeit overpaid. If 2013 goes wrong, and the Phillies sell the right pieces, they can supplement their existing veterans with an infusion of young talent and go into free agency with money to spend.
The result could very well be a competitive future in the near-term. But most important, it would be a competitive future that doesn’t involve devastating a fan base that still desperately seeks a follow-up performance to 2008. Keri is correct in pointing out that the path the Phillies took to get here is similar to that of many successful teams with financial resources at their disposal (a path which ESPN’s Jayson Stark recently advocated). But using the same logic, there is also a path suitable for those types of teams to retool their roster after the previous regime falls short. The fire sale that Keri calls for is not it.
Posts: 0 George
Everyone seems to think the Phils are ancient; they aren’t, and have lately edged toward getting younger. The current outfield has Revere and Brown. Galvis’ bat seems to be improving. The bullpen is mostly young. The farm system is not entirely devoid of talent, and some of it, like Valle, Joseph, or Asche might be ready sooner than everyone seems to think.
Then there’s this: if the current team falters, it’ll be mostly because the vets have completely tanked or gotten injured. You don’t get much for a bad-kneed 2nd baseman in the final year of his contract, nor do you get much for a starter with no velocity left, also in his final year. And you’d have to eat too much money to move Lee or Howard. Tearing down the house isn’t the answer.
Posted: 11:04 AM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 239 Jay Floyd
Nice first contribution by Alex Lee. Nice work and welcome, once again.
Posted: 12:41 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 3476 Lefty
I like Keri’s writing, I think he’s a bright guy. I don’t think he’s so far off on this piece. He has always subscribed to the “Branch Rickey” theory. And he’s not just a guy that looks back and says they should have done this and that after the fact.
He actually wrote that it wouldn’t be a bad idea to start slowly remaking the Yankees a month after they won the World Series in 09. He writes that standing pat doesn’t give usually net good results and proves it with stats. He wrote this November 21 , 2009 – He doesn’t mention the Phils specifically in this piece but you could apply the same theory.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/sports/baseball/22score.html?_r=0
Posted: 03:42 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 George
Big deal. So Keri stated what was obvious to everyone: that the Yanks should slowly remake themselves.
Even Cashman probably realized that, because the team is currently chockful of players they didn’t have back in 2009. There are a few obvious holdovers, but for the most part those Rivera and Jeter types have been pretty darned good, and probably better than what the Yanks could have replaced them with.
Posted: 05:01 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 George
Lefty: Your Utley example isn’t exactly a good one. After the “5 home run World Series,” Utley was still rather young, good and playing at a level indicative of a lot of way-above average seasons. He would have been traded more like five seasons to early had his knees not given out. I’ll agree that he would have brought in a huge haul, but trading a premium player in his prime is,in my opinion, not the road even Branch Rickey would have taken. Other players Amaro did dump weren’t exactly been great for their new teams; Burrell, Brett Myers, for examples (and possibly Pence and Victorino, too), and many of the prospects traded have been less than stellar. This appears to be an area people ignore when trashing the man. He gets no credit for relieving the roster of mediocrity, but gets blamed for injuries beyond his control or playoff losses that are products of what is essentially a crapshoot.
As far as reading the supposedly erudite Keri, I’m going to pass. I simply do not like his writing style or his backhanded slaps at baseball organizations that were so evident in this”Blow Up…” piece.
Posted: 09:27 AM on March 15, 2013
Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
I am surprised at the reaction to what was essentially a reasonable argument based on facts (the Phillies are OLD) and historical trends as to what happens to old teams. Simply put these players are not what they were and they cannot be expected to regenerate their youth. Sooner or later you have to move on and we are now reaching “later”.
I won’t complain of the risks taken by Amaro but we traded away our good prospects and now we have to pay the piper. It will do no good to trot out the same old, same OLD year after year. We will have to rebuild and that starts with cutting the payroll.
To me Halladay and Utley have to go to make room for younger players or potential free agents. That is $35 million. I would not spend it all. We are not going to be able to catch the Nationals for a few years. Howard probably can’t be moved. The only one who has to stay is Hamels.
I will still root for them but the window has closed. Let’s hope for 2020.
Posted: 06:18 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 413 Publius
…how exactly have they “turned a corner?” Or are you just talking in terms of salary/financial concerns? Because there is no way anyone can look at the moves of this past offseason and breathe easy, knowing that this team is better in terms of on-field talent.
Also holy smokes do you seriously think that Mike Adams went “wow, the Phillies have a lot of young mediocre prospects! I better sign with them post-haste!” Yeesh, talk about delusional. Young only signed here because no-one else wanted an anti-semitic, overhyped DH. Young and Paps got paid like crazy, Lee and Halladay signed because they thought they could win with the current team (which were accurate assessments 2 years ago).
A firesale doesn’t preclude decades in the wilderness like the Pirates, Astros or Royals have gone through. Between Hamels, Rollins (overpaid though he is), Utley (who I would re-sign with the oodles of money this team has) and Brown, there’s enough talent on this team to contend very quickly, especially given the vast financial reserves this team has and the strong FA market next year. By 2014 they could probably field a better team than 2013 just by selling and signing.
Posted: 12:07 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 Justin McElroy
It would not be a “Marlins type fire sale”. The Marlins dumped expensive players who were statistically considered to still be in their prime seasons. The Phillies would be trading players who are statistically in their decline seasons, and in many cases at the end of their contracts. If the Phillies are out of contention at the trade deadline again, I think the best thing to do would be move Utley and Ruiz to contenders and try to beef up the farm system. There’s a shelf life to the 2008 nucleus and I think we’re pretty close to the expiration date.
Posted: 12:56 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 413 Publius
Just spitballin’ here, but I doubt he takes anything less than 3 years guaranteed, probably around 16-18mil range
Posted: 12:27 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 George
Has it actually been a trend, or are the popups a one year anomoly? I don’t recall any complaints about Rollins’ popups until 2012.
I’ll have to see if his swing actually does slow down or if he continues the “alarming trend,” or stops stealing bases, or loses most his range these next two years before I’ll ever make such a brash statement that he’s overpaid.
Posted: 01:43 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
What is your problem, Chuck?
Keith told us “The Phillies severely overpaid for him. No other team was going to give J-Roll more than 2 years. The Phillies were bidding against themselves.”
Here you have a guy who obviously had to be a fly on the wall in all negotiations Jimmy’s agent had with any club, is gracious enough to break the news of the results to us, and you offer an opinion, versus what is presented as indisputable fact.
My, oh my.. Let’s work on that reading ability.
When you are exposed to facts, and can’t learn from it, and we both know we’ve had plenty of recent opportunity to do that on this site, it is a sad day.
Love,
Ken
Posted: 01:45 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
It’s actually a pretty fair statement, and the word alarming is not out of place.
Here is Jimmy’s year by year infield fly ball percentage for his seasons in the bgs since 02.
02 – 12
03 – 10.3
04 – 10.3
05 – 9.9
06 – 9.7
07 (MVP) – 7.5
08 – 11.8
09 – 13.7
10 – 10
11-10.1
12 – 19.0
Those numbers from Fangraphs.
It should be noted that Jimmy hit a popup in a WBC game I saw a couple pitches of the other night, so his infield flyball percentage for 2013 is already in positive territoey. That’s called a firesale red flag, I guess.
Posted: 02:06 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 schmenkman
Huh? That was not sarcasm. That was giving you the benefit of the doubt.
Posted: 05:16 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 2537 Chuck A.
Let’s just see how they do this year before we decide whether or not to “move on.”
Posted: 02:47 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 0 Justin McElroy
I’ve never advocated trading anyone right now. However, if they’re not in contention at the trade deadline (a very real possibility), it becomes a much different scenario. At that point, if you can get a decent prospect for a 35 year old catcher or second baseman, why wouldn’t you do it? Holding on to guys for sentimental reasons is absolutely the worst thing they can do.
Posted: 03:11 PM on March 13, 2013
Posts: 413 Publius
Defensive WAR measures are terrible, and I say this as a huge WAR advocate. We can’t simply look at those and declare Rollins elite because of one-year defensive WAR measures.
Posted: 03:36 PM on March 13, 2013