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Dom’s Swingin’ Good

Posted by Pat Gallen, Thu, June 06, 2013 12:11 PM | Comments: 9
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts

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(AP Photo)

Domonic Brown is not taking walks. Nobody seems to mind. Brown’s power has been off the charts, obviously, as he leads the National League in home runs. How is he doing it? A few ways.

According to Fangraphs, Brown is getting balls inside the zone at a rate two percent less than the average major leaguer. However, the percentage of pitches inside the strike zone that he’s swinging at is more than 11 percent better than average. What’s that say? Well, that Brown’s got a solid eye and is whaling on his pitches.

Outside of the strike zone, Brown is swinging at more pitches than the mean. The average MLB’er hacks at 29.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, while Dom swings at 33.6 However, with the keen eye he has shown this year, he actually has connected on 70.2 percent of those balls, whereas the rest of the league makes contact at 66.3 percent.

So, not only is Domonic Brown burying mistakes left out over the plate, but he’s using his confidence and plate coverage ability to destroy pitches out of the zone too. He’s seeing less than usual inside the zone, but is making just about everyone pay when it the baseball is in that area.

This is the evolution of Domonic Brown. He’s always had solid plate discipline, which previously meant a good amount of walks and solid OBP without tearing the cover off the ball. Now, the difference is his plate discipline is still present, despite the lower walk rate and OBP. Dom’s discipline has morphed into solid plate coverage, and he’s benefiting greatly from it.

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About Pat Gallen

Pat Gallen has written 1667 articles on Phillies Nation.

Pat is Editor-in-Chief of Phillies Nation. He also covers the Phils for 97.5 FM in Philly.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

    The self proclaimed world wide leader’s stats folk tell us Dom is way down the list on distance of homers. The naked eye tells us his homers offset that travelling at pace well above any speed limit. Pure rockets. A much, much better sign longer term, evidence of a shorter stroke.

    I know Joyner and Henderson have both been credited with the massive uptick.

    I suspect the former Cub 2B has a lot to do with it. But only 1 guy can execute the plan.

    .

     
  • Posts: 0 ken stfu

    ^ you

     
  • Posts: 0 Ankit

    His slugging % on pitches outside the zone is around .169 as opposed to something .700+ when in the zone. So, though he is making above average contact on pitches outside the zone, its weak contact and something that can be exploited. See: http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2013-06-05/domonic-brown-phillies-nl-player-of-month-homer-hot-rbi-walk-aggressive

     
    • Posts: 0 George

      Yet another instance of an incomplete analysis. One can’t really know just how bad that .169 is unless it’s compared with the rest of the league. There are probably very few players who manage to whack out-of-the-zone pitches with much power. It also seems obvious that his rate right now is unsustainably high even for a guy like Ted Williams, so that claim of the article is just silly.

      I also believe that Brown is selective enough these days to adjust to what pitchers will be throwing him. He’ll get his walks.

       
      • Posts: 0 Ankit

        The .169 is bad no matter who/what you compare it with. My point is that Brown will have to adjust his approach once the league adjusts and hopefully he can lay off a few more of those pitches out of the zone. He is capable of taking walks and now shown that he is capable of hitting for power. Hopefully, the two converge and he becomes the player we all hoped for, for a long time…

         
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr

    Yea i read that to Ken and before it was mentioned i noticed some his HR where not of the 450ft variety. However they are still HR that leads to scoring no matter if its 500 or barely clearing our band box. He did crush one into the bay in San Fran.

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      “our bandbox” — It may look small, but it’s about as neutral as any park in baseball for home runs overall.

      It helps lefties, but hurts righties. And it doesn’t help all lefites — it seems to have helped Brown (21 home, 9 away), but not Howard (155 home, 152 away).

      Overall, in 2008-2012, there were 2.17 home runs per game by both teams at CBP, and 2.10 home runs per game by both teams in the Phillies’ road games in the other parks, against the same teams. That’s less than a 4% difference, and makes CBP the park that’s 3rd closest to perfectly neutral in all MLB.

       
      • Posts: 0 Dave P

        I always tell people this when they call CBP a small home run friendly park.

        Anyway, Dom is crushing it. It’s nice to have a player on the very top of an offensive category again.

         
  • Posts: 0 Phil

    Brown’s walk rate will skyrocket once pitchers get smart and stop throwing him anything to hit

     
 
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