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Gameday: Phillies (40-45) vs. Pirates (52-31)

Posted by Brian Michael, Thu, July 04, 2013 01:18 PM | Comments: 37
2013 Gameday

Philadelphia Phillies (40-45) vs.Pittsburgh Pirates (52-31)images

LHP Cole Hamels (2-11, 4.58 ERA) vs RHP Gerrit Cole (4-0, 3.70 ERA)

TIME: 1:35 ET, PNC Park
TV:
Comcast SportsNet
Weather: 79, partly cloudy
Media: Twitter and Facebook

Happy Independence Day, America!

The Phils and Bucs celebrate the birth of our fine country with an afternoon game along the banks of the Allegheny River.  Cole Hamels looks to once again avoid a career-worst 12th loss of the season.  He is pitted against righty Gerrit Cole who, on the flip side, is without a loss in his young career.

vet10021

Lineup: Revere CF, Utley 2B, Rollins SS, Howard 1B, Brown LF, D. Young RF, Fransden 3B, Ruiz C, Hamels P

Gameday Beer: Yuengling Lager

Phillies Nation Gameday Beer RecommendationThere’s a good chance you’ll be trying a variety of summer beers today, as you should on a warm and festive day such as this.  Yet at the end of the night when all those beers are gone, it’s time to dance with the girl that brought you.  We all know the Yuengling story and how it pairs well with everything - so pop a can or bottle and celebrate America’s long standing traditions of freedom and beer with a cold one from its oldest brewery.

 

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Brian Michael has written 1163 articles on Phillies Nation.

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  • Posts: 0 Pamikedc

    Leggggo!!! C’mon Phils, lets win in this park!

    No excuses for Hamels

     
  • Posts: 0 Pamikedc

    Caught stealing 2xs in one inning!!!! Really?

     
  • Posts: 0 teejvee

    Typical Hamels inning.

     
  • Posts: 0 G7

    Great job by Hamels today, and Delmon Young is having an excellent road trip at the plate..heating up!!

     
  • Posts: 0 Joshua

    Just saw a typical phillies inning. Utley leads off with a triple. Rollins pops up Howard strikes out. They walk brown and Mayberry hits a weak ground ball. Is it that hard to hot a fly ball ?

     
    • Posts: 0 G7

      I don’t know..have you faced 95+ mph fastballs before..

       
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        he doesn’t get paid to hit 95 mph fastballs

         
      • Posts: 0 G7

        Ok, I understand the job thing, but that doesn’t make it routine for a professional hitter..

         
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        That’s true.. but that’s baseball

         
  • Posts: 0 DavidE

    As hot as the Pirates were coming into this series, 2 out of 3 is pretty good. The Pirates are an interesting team but I think they will come up short against both the Reds and the Cardinals. The team really relies on what has been a very effective bullpen that wasn’t that solid in this 3 game series and especially today. If Gerrit Cole was pitching for the Phillies, there is no way that he comes out of the game in the 6th inning having made fewer than 80 pitches and only given up one run. Charlie would just hope that he can pitch his way out of it. Today, the Pirate relief pitchers not only allowed the 2 runners on base to score, they allowed 3 additional runs. When you take good starting pitchers out like Locke and G. Cole in the 6th inning, you are relying on several pitchers to be very effective. Today, they weren’t. But the depth of their bullpen certainly is impressive.

     
  • Posts: 0 DavidE

    First inning shows how much the team misses Davey Lopes coaching first base. Revere has been thrown out 8 times and Rollins has been thrown out 6 times on attempted base steals.

     
    • Posts: 0 George

      Actually, the Phils’ success rate on stolen bases was still the best in the league even after Lopes left.

      Though this year hasn’t been good, I wouldn’t blindly blame that all on missing Lopes. Rollins has slowed, Victorino is no longer on the team, and Revere is still pretty inexperienced, especially in a new league. Last season with the Phils, Pierre had his best rate ever without Lopes to help him.

       
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        and Juan Samuel is pretty good

         
  • Posts: 204 loupossehl

    Avatar of loupossehl

    Wben I look at today’s lineup and I see a Ben Revere at .290 and inexorably (ahem) moving toward .300, a healthy (for now) Utley at .282 and hitting well, D. Brown being D. Brown and on course to hit 35-40 dingers; Michael Young at a solid .285, Ruiz at .278 and coming along, Delmon Young (who could always hit) heating up at .273 …

    And Cole looking today like Cole of “old”, and sure not to have 11 losses in the second half, and the possibility of Halladay coming back while Pettibone and Lannan hold the fort, and the possibility of Kendrick continuing to be just being the Kendrick he’s been for about a year now …

    And given that there are only a couple of really, really good teams in either NL or AL – is this Phillies group, therefore, not a dangerous bunch that, if the stars align, could indeed make a run at a playoff spot? Or is it just me?

     
    • Posts: 5400 Lefty

      Avatar of Lefty

      It’s not impossible Lou, the odds aren’t good though. And you didn’t mention the bullpen. You’d need galaxies to align to help this bullpen. And yet, they keep me coming back to the tube every night just in case. Oh hell, I’ve been through so many horrible seasons I’d come back no matter what, I’m just hopelessly hooked.

       
      • Posts: 0 G7

        Nothing wrong with that Lefty..

         
      • Posts: 204 loupossehl

        Avatar of loupossehl

        What got me thinking about this was looking at the Pirates’ lineup … you know, the team that some are now actually calling “the best in baseball.” Yes they have a good guy here and there but – I’m sorry – I can’t get excited about what I see … and then I compare it to the Phillies’ position players and I figure WTF we can match up with that.

        As to the bullpen … for sure, but while we’re not a perfect team, almost no one else is, either. I do a lot of “stuff” in the stock market and with it a fair amount of trend following – trying to find situations where it seems like nothing much is going on, but underlying trends have turned favorable. With the Philiies I see on the surface a .500 club, but with the trends for Revere, Utley, M. Young and now Ruiz and D. Young being “up” – and D. Brown maintaining his high-level performance. I’m not a statistician but if all of that improving offense translates in the second half of the season to an additional 1 to 1.5 runs per game – and even with NO improvement in the pitching area – I’ll bet the Phillies could play .600 ball. And that would mean 46-30 going forward, and an overall 87-75 … and that could mean playoffs.

         
      • Posts: 44 artemis

        Avatar of artemis

        Lou, I’m not a statistician either but I’ve seen this trend, while our team suffered losses and setbacks this first half, they somehow always managed to get on their feet ,get up, and avoid being disaster, aka the cellar. The way things are moving so far, the trends you mentioned, the second half looks good moving onto October.

        Lefty, you are not alone. There’s a whole nation of Phaithful Phillies Phans who stick with our team no matter what through all these years. After being there in 80 and 08 and all the years in between, It is UNIMAGINABLE to root for any other team.

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        Lou, you’re right — the Pirates’ lineup is no better than that of the Phillies, and it shows in their runs scored: Pirates 3.94 (11th), Phillies 3.88 (12th). Where the Pirates’ position players are better is in the field, where they are one of the better defensive teams in the NL, while the Phillies are one of the worst.

        But the big difference between the two teams is the pitching. The Pirates have the _lowest_ ERA in the NL, while the Phillies have the 3rd _highest_ ERA.

        As for there still being a chance that the Phillies could contend, as Lefty says it’s possible, but very much a long shot. It would be one of the more improbable comebacks in recent history. Stranger things have happened, and even the bullpen could somehow suddenly become one of the best in the league over the last 2-3 months, just as they did last year. But I certainly wouldn’t bet anything of value on that comeback.

         
    • Posts: 0 c. schreiber

      Just you and the Schmidt’s in your hand.

       
      • Posts: 2005 Brooks

        Avatar of Brooks

        Its good to have dreams – and Schreiber is spot on – in order for this club to contend, say win 90 games they would have to win 49 and lose 27. Seriously folks at this point haven’t we seen where the leaves are falling yet? Winning nearly 2/3 or 66% of the remaining games?
        Even with Young (both of them), Brown, Revere, Choochie (who may or may not hit a hr this year) and Utley batting close to their career averages – do you see Ryan Howard being able to turn it on? Accept it – the team may reach 80 to 84 wins but in my best Mora impersonation – “Playoffs?”

        The whole they dug is too deep. “Wait until next year”

         
  • Posts: 0 teejvee

    I’d just like to see them play solid baseball for a couple weeks straight.Every time they play a couple good games in a row, they seem to follow it with a couple garbage games.

     
    • Posts: 2005 Brooks

      Avatar of Brooks

      That is all I am asking at this point too Tee – my expectations, hopes are just for some good ball the rest of the way. Hey, I have about 14 games left on my plans..

       
    • Posts: 0 G7

      Is it a whole hole or half a hole?

       
  • Posts: 5400 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    IMO- The next seven games are the key to the season.

    3 v the Braves, and 4 v the Nats, all at home. This is the head to head opportunity I’ve been talking about. These are the games that decide whether the Phils are a contender or a pretender. They also could be the games where they decide if they are buyers or sellers.

    Can this pretty bad bullpen somehow hold up? Can the offense score enough runs that it doesn’t matter how bad the pen is? Will the Starters keep us in these games for long enough? I think this is the week that we get many questions answered.

     
    • Posts: 2005 Brooks

      Avatar of Brooks

      What could you possibly expect Lefty?
      A sweep? 6 out of 7? Even 5 wins still gets them under .500 and probably 6 games out of first place.
      Just hope for some decent baseball and some significant moves by the front office!

       
      • Posts: 5400 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        I hate to say it, but I think they have to sweep the Braves and win 3 out of 4 from the Nats. Doesn’t seem possible, but we’ve seen stranger things happen. First order of business is win tonight, worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Howard always hits Hudson well, maybe he gets us started tonight.

         
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        a sweep of the braves puts us at 5.5 back and 3 of 4 vs the nats could bring us closer… I’d be real happy with that… then I say we’re buyers and lets win this thing!!!

         
  • Posts: 0 Fritz

    If these guys keep hitting then screw selling. Get some bullpen help.Let them play it out and see what happens.Go Phils!

     
  • Posts: 0 teejvee

    MY prediction. They’ll go 4-3 or 3-4. Just so poor RAJ won
    t know if he should buy or sell.

     
  • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

    Last year, we something like 37-50 at the break… Finished .500. It is very likely that this team will play much better in the second half. Now, I will admit that I’m very sentimental towards this team and will hold out hope longer than I should BUT I want to see this team get a chance to go for it one more time. We are 3 games into a 13 game death march- -13 games without a day off. If we can rifle off 9-10 wins, I’d say we have a good shot of putting some real pressure on the Braves. The key to this whole thing and the one guy that everyone counted on is/was Cole. He needs to be as good as he was tonight… If he can be that guy consistently, we might have enough. If we are trading Utley, I want nothing less than Zack Wheeler… That’s what the Mets nabbed for Beltran. I want Amaro to be smart but don’t sell short just to appease the masses.

     
    • Posts: 0 c. schreiber

      chuck P, If Amaro was going to trade to appease the masses he already (last yr) would have been doing that and would have had Cholly making different lineups (Howard) out versus LH P’s or batting 6th or below that. Howard not only can’t hit LHs anymore but he clogs up the basepaths big time. Just to let you know I have been “Big piece” s biggest fans all these years and I know he hates what’ s happening to his skills but he can’t run, at all, has lost his power and can’t hit to left against that shift cause if he did he’d be hitting .400. I’m sure a lot of these problems have to do with the achilles and now his knee but RAJ/Cholly need to admit its over for him with the P’s and platoon him and not be afraid to pinch hit for him in critical game situations and for god sakes pinch run for him anytime in important situations. RAJ needs to figure out a way to get him to an AL team where he could be an DH. Yeah I know about his salary but if he has all the faults I mentioned for the sake of the team he needs to go and RAJ needs to eat whatever salary is necessary to make it happen.

       
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        Lord knows there’s plenty to disagree with in Amaro’s moves, but trying to appease the various whims of the masses would be a D I S A S T E R.

         
  • Posts: 204 loupossehl

    Avatar of loupossehl

    Shmenkman, for sure there’s a whole lot more to a club’s winning and losing than team batting average. But I’ve been exasperated – and what Phillies fan hasn’t been – by our club’s failure to win games not because of pitching shortcomings, but because of the club’s inability to provide adequate run support. Hence my observation on recent trends, and my surmise as to how enhanced run support might favorably impact the Phillies, going forward.

    My guesstimate that an added 1-to-1.5 runs per game could push this .500 club to a .600 win-loss record – all other things being equal and even forgetting about a Hamels turnaround – was strictly a wild-ass guess. I don’t know if there are any stats on that particular subject; if anyone would know, you are certainly that guy. But since that .600 record would place us at 87-75 – a record good enough on many occasions to slip into the playoffs – I wouldn’t categorize that result as “one of the more improbable comebacks in recent history.” A few years back, the Diamondback went on some kind of ridiculous run over the last 20-or-so games to make the playoffs – that was improbable. What we did to the Mets a couple of years ago to overhaul them in the last week of the season – that was improbable. What we did to ourselves in 1964 over the last week of the season – that was improbable. And let’s not forget that, in 1980, if my memory serves me correctly, over the first 107 games we were 55-52.

    This is all to say that, IMHO, the odds of this particular version of the Phillies making the playoffs are not good. But the odds for a 87-75 scenario – even given the club’s various shortcomings – really shouldn’t be that long, and the more optimistic among us sense some positive rumblings afoot …

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Lou, there’s a fairly reliable formula for a team’s total runs scored and runs allowed, and predicting how many games that team will win.

      With, as you say, all else being equal, meaning the pitching is no better than it’s been so far (terrible bullpen, mediocre Hamels, but also excellent Lee), the Phillies would need to increase their runs scored from the 3.9 per game they’ve averaged so far, to about 5.5 the rest of the way (an improvement of 1.6 per game) in order to win 60% of their games and finish with 87.

      If the pitching does improve some, it would mean the offense can improve less, but the improvement needed in the run differential would remain about 1.6. So if they allow 4.0 instead of 4.4 the rest of the way (0.4 per game less), then the scoring would need to improve by only 1.2, from 3.9 to 5.1.

      Now there’s the element of how those runs are distributed across all the games, which evens out in the long run but wouldn’t necessarily over 76 games. So by winning a lot of 1-run games, for example, (the kind they’ve been losing a lot of in very frustrating ways), then they wouldn’t have to improve their run differential by quite that much.

       
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        *…formula for _taking_ a team’s total runs scored and runs allowed, …

         
      • Posts: 204 loupossehl

        Avatar of loupossehl

        Thank you, Shmenkman, for giving some statistical structure to my WAG – which now doesn’t seem quite so “WA”, after all. I’d now say that if recent hitting trends are more than a head fake or flash in the pan … and Hamels has a second half reflective of his capabilities … and Lee remains Lee … then based on the info you’ve provided, the Phillies have a fair chance at 87-75, and a so-so chance of qualifying for the playoffs.

         
 
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