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Revisiting Our Offseason Plans

Posted by Eric Seidman, Fri, September 13, 2013 09:00 AM | Comments: 9
Acquisitions, Commentary

Last November, Pat Gallen, Corey Seidman, Ian Riccaboni and I separately presented our roster plans for the 2013 Phillies. None of us truly believed the Phillies were a contender, but with our suggested acquisitions and some positive breaks, they might have a shot. With only a few weeks left in the season it seems as good a time as any to review our plans.

It’s interesting to note that the four of us agreed on an awful lot – we collectively selected 17 of the 25 roster spots. This was indicative of the few areas the Phillies could toy with. On one hand, agreement on 68% of the roster could suggest that the Phillies didn’t need to alter chunks of the roster or dole out even more lucrative deals. On the other hand, several of those 17 players were already signed to lucrative deals that could have prevented the team from properly filling the remaining spots.

Our starting rotations were identical across the board: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley. These plans were published prior to Worley’s trade to Minnesota, but, at that time, we all felt the Phillies rotation was set. They didn’t need to go out and sign a Dan Haren or Ryan Dempster. If the big three were healthy, and Kendrick continued improving, the rotation was solid.

We also agreed on Carlos Ruiz as the primary catcher with Erik Kratz backing him up. Chooch was coming off of his best season and it was a no-brainer to exercise his meager club option. Kratz, while not that solid of a defender, had hit for enough power to merit the backup role. It didn’t make sense to have one of the prospects back Ruiz up since consistent playing time is integral to their development.

Though there were question marks surrounding the infield triumvirate’s ability to remain both healthy and effective, we all agreed on Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins at their respective positions. Freddy Galvis, Domonic Brown, Darin Ruf and John Mayberry all made our teams as well, with Brown as a clear starter and Ruf getting more playing time than Galvis and Mayberry. It was also abundantly clear that Jonathan Papelbon wasn’t going anywhere, and our bullpens all included Antonio Bastardo and Jeremy Horst.

Third base, however, was the first area in which we really presented different plans.

Third Base: Youkilis, Chavez, Theriot, Keppinger, Frandsen

We agreed that Kevin Frandsen had earned a larger role on the team and “signed” our third basemen under the mindset that he would work out of a platoon. Cody Asche‘s time was coming so doling out long-term deals to third basemen didn’t seem prudent.

Corey signed Kevin Youkilis to a 2 yr/$17 mil contract to improve the Phillies on-base percentage. Youkilis tallied -0.5 WAR in an injury-plagued season with the Yankees. I signed Eric Chavez to a 2 yr/$6 million contract since he had been crushing righties in his career resurgence. His defense isn’t what it used to be, but the funds were minimal and a Chavez/Frandsen platoon figured to produce around 2 WAR for $4 million. Chavez has been knicked up of late, but in 241 PAs, he has a .290/.342/.498 batting line and 1.1 WAR.

Pat originally wanted to sign Maicer Izturis, but he literally signed with the Blue Jays halfway through the article. His attention then turned to Ryan Theriot, not as the starter, but as a member of a platoon of some sort. Theriot is not going to play for a major league team this year, so I’m sure Pat would like his 2 yr/$4 million deal back!

Ian opted to sign Jeff Keppinger for 2 yrs/$8 mil coming off of his stellar season with the Rays. It was a solid idea at the time, but Keppinger has had practically the worst season of any everyday player. In 430 PAs, he has a .244/.271/.303 line, with negative fielding and baserunning marks. All told, he has been worth two wins below replacement. The Phillies would have been better off playing Michael Martinez for 400+ PAs than signing Keppinger, and in no universe should Martinez ever come close to 400+ PAs.

Outfield: Upton, Bourjos, Swisher, Span, Ross, Hamilton, Morrison

We all knew Brown was worthy of one starting spot, but the other two were up for grabs. Ruf was worth playing in a platoon, if he could handle a corner spot defensively, but only Corey and Ian viewed him in the platoon role from the start. Ian paired him with Logan Morrison, figuring that he could be had for a young, controllable reliever, like Josh Lindblom. Morrison hasn’t had the bounceback season that many expected, as his below average fielding and baserunning have pushed him just south of the replacement level line.

Ian had the Phillies going all out and signing Josh Hamilton for 4 yrs/$104 million, with a fifth-year vesting option. Hamilton has turned it on in September, but it’s too little, too late. His 1.5 WAR isn’t awful, but when you hope for 2 WAR out of a $25 million player, it’s a bad sign. Ian’s outfield of Hamilton, Brown and Ruf/Morrison has tallied 3.9 WAR to date.

Corey figured Ruf would platoon with Mayberry and Laynce Nix, and focused his outfield efforts on B.J. Upton, signing the former #1 pick for 5 yrs/$78 million. Upton has been a disaster in his first season with the Braves and it’s a wonder how that team has played so well with a -0.4 WAR player in center field. Corey’s outfield of Upton, Brown and Ruf/Nix/Mayberry has produced 1.2 WAR to date.

I took a different route, opting to trade for a young, controllable centerfielder while spending some money in one of the corners. My offseason plan saw the Phillies trade for Peter Bourjos of the Angels while signing Nick Swisher for 4 yrs/$56 million. Bourjos, I reasoned, profiled as an average-ish hitter if completely healthy, who also offered elite fielding and baserunning. This also made him very valuable to the Angels. The Phillies did end up trading for a young, controllable centerfielder in Ben Revere, but elected against a big-ticket corner outfield signing. Bourjos, Brown and Swisher have played decently this season through health problems, combining for 4.6 WAR.

Pat assembled the most productive outfield, pairing Brown in the corners with Cody Ross on a questionable multi-year deal, and trading for Denard Span. The Phillies opted for the other Twins centerfielder after the Nationals acquired Span for arguably less than the Phils gave up. Span started out slowly but figures to finish the season at 3+ WAR. Span, Ross and Brown add up to 6.6 WAR.

Bullpen: Uehara, Madson, Adams

While we only agreed on Papelbon, Bastardo and Horst, there was a less specific agreement that the Phillies should fill at least two of the other bullpen spots with their young, cheap arms. Corey called on Justin De Fratus and Lindblom. I had Phillippe Aumont, Michael Schwimer and Lindblom. Pat had Jake Diekman, Aumont and De Fratus. Ian had Tyler Cloyd, Aumont, Diekman and De Fratus.

In fact, Ian’s bullpen was devoid of free agent relievers and has totaled 2 WAR to date. Now, 20% of that figure comes from Cloyd’s starts, but Papelbon, Bastardo and Diekman have pitched well. Both Pat and I re-signed Ryan Madson to an incentive-laden deal. That obviously looks silly in hindsight as he won’t pitch at all this season. Then again, his 0 WAR is better than the negative numbers from Horst and De Fratus. Both our bullpens have produced 1.6 WAR to date.

Corey took a different approach, signing Koji Uehara and Mike Adams to reasonable contracts. The Phillies did sign Adams and, while he looked decent through his first few outings, his health impacted his effectiveness and eventually shut him down for the season. The injury is serious enough that Adams legitimately may never throw another major league pitch. Uehara, on the other hand, has produced 3 WAR on his own, outperforming all of our bullpens by himself! Corey’s bullpen has produced 4 WAR, twice the production of Ian’s and 2.5 times more than the reliever corps Pat and I put together.

Overall

Pat’s team has produced 24 WAR to date. Mine is at 23.2. Corey’s is at 20.1. Ian’s is at 18.9.

What does this mean? Well, consider that a fully replacement-level team would win around 45-46 games in a season. A decent analog for team success is to add the team WAR of the prominent contributors to this figure. In that case, our teams should be at around 65-69 wins right now. The actual Phillies are now 68-78, which is spot on. So what does this mean? It means that none of us really assembled that great of a team. Some are better than others, but none of our rosters have produced any better than the current Phillies team.

Our big-ticket free agent signings haven’t really worked out, several notable players were hit by injuries, and others, like Rollins, simply played below their established norms. Since so much money was tied up in injured or ineffective players – Howard, Halladay, Rollins – the Phillies lacked the financial flexibility needed to truly improve. This isn’t to say that we should give Amaro some slack, as his past decisions have hamstrung the team, but rather that the actual Phillies and all of our teams utilized the lipstick-on-a-pig approach. The Phillies are standing by Ruben Amaro as GM, as they trust his work ethic and unwavering ability to make decisions, but this organization really has its work cut out for it.

Avatar of Eric Seidman

About Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman has written 64 articles on Phillies Nation.

Eric offers his unique analytical perspective to Phillies Nation and is a regular contributor on FanGraphs.com.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Pamikedc

    Good work guys! Respect all of your writings!

    Off to Italy for 3 weeks. Back in time to hopefully read that the Phils are .500 and the Birds beat Andy Reid and are 4-0.

    Lots of PN news to catch up on in 3 weeks- but I will, as always, read every article. Bc you guys ARE that good

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryan

    It basically goes to show that Amaro was in a no win situation. There was no way to build a winner out of this team in free agency this off season if you assumed that the team would get so little out of Halladay and Howard. Here are four different scenarios, several of which would tie up a bunch of money in aging players long term (Hamilton, Swisher, Madson, Span, Upton, Ross, Keppinger, Youkilis)–more so than what Amaro did. This would’ve put the Phillies in a worse position than they currently are in.

    The best way to go about rebuilding the roster is to build from within and then re-sign your own players to team friendly deals when they’re young. When you get close to being a contender or are a contender, then you sign the free agent or trade for the veteran (i.e. Cliff Lee, Halladay, etc.) to put yourself over the top.

     
    • Posts: 0 Carlos Danger

      I agree, free agency is definitely not the way to build a team in this day and age. You only end up with expensive players who have most likely peaked in their previous organization. Free agency should only be used to fill in the occasional hole. The Phillies should really take a close look at how St. Louis runs their organization and evaluate their entire scouting and player development process.

       
  • Posts: 0 Ryan

    I agree wholeheartedly. The Michael Young signing actually looks good to me in hindsight. He wasn’t a good player, but he was A LOT better than Youkilis or most of the other external options. Who knows if Frandsen/Galvis does well or not, but that would’ve certainly hurt or depth/bench.

     
    • Posts: 0 hk

      It’s pretty pathetic when the best thing you can say about a move is…at least the GM didn’t make a worse move.

       
  • Posts: 5229 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    68% agreement? Why that’s unheard of. David Montgomery would be very pleased. You beat the baseball .300 standard by more than double. “/s”

    BTW- I have an unwavering ability to “make decisions” too, like whether to spend my money on the Phillies or elsewhere. The answer Montgomery gave Gelb may be the single most moronic quote I’ve ever read. If he’s telling the truth, it looks like Ruben Amaro Jr. is our GM for a long, long time, like it or not.

     
    • Posts: 0 George

      That was a moronic quote, but I don’t think Montgomery meant it in the way it came out. I think he was most likely trying to indicate that a great baseball performance is .300, but he should have left the number out and only siad that he felt Amaro was performing like a valuable hitter. A GM’s decision making abilty can’t easily be put into numbers, and it was really dumb of Montgomery to even attemp to do so.

      Whether or not the proposed rosters are indicative that being a GM is really difficult is highly debatable. If no one else can put a roster together any better than the one which was ultimately assembled, I think it shows that it’s not such an easy job, even without the other pressures a real GM must face, like justifying budgets, facing the press and fans, and trying to convince rival GMs to make certain trades. An armchair GM can make lots of proposals, none of which might be accepted by another team’s management, and he can do it without a team president eyeing the bottom line.

       
      • Posts: 5229 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        Agreed, it’s definitely not an easy job. Sometimes you can’t get your primary target, and have to take what you can get.

         
  • Posts: 0 Joey Spagna

    Dump Chooch and bring back Darnaud.

     
 
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