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Trying to Untangle the 2014 Phillies Roster

Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Thu, September 05, 2013 07:00 AM | Comments: 62
Analysis, Blueclaws, Fightins, IronPigs, Minor Leagues, Threshers

The Phillies currently have 46 players on their 40-man roster. This in itself is not strange – with the advent of the 60-day disabled list (DL), teams can carry up to 25 active players and 15 players in the minors as reserve, with any player who is anticipated to miss 60 days or more not counting against the final 40.

The Phillies currently have six players on their 40-man who are on the 60-day: Mike Adams, Ryan Howard, Jeremy Horst, John Lannan, Jonathan Pettibone, and Michael Stutes. Adams and Howard have guaranteed contracts for 2014, while Horst and Pettibone have cheap, renewable contracts, and Lannan and Stutes are arbitration-eligible.

These six players will all count toward the Phillies 40-man sometime shortly after the World Series concludes, making the 40-man roster 46 deep. Uh oh.

Where do you even start in a situation like this? In addition to the six players coming off of the 60-day DL, there are an additional 11 players (12 including Lannan) that are arbitration eligible, at least 19 players eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if not added to the 40-man roster, and at least five minor leaguers that can opt out of their contracts to become Minor League free agents.  Oh, and you’ll have to make room for any free agent or trade acquisitions.

Good luck, right?

As impossible as it may seem, this situation happens yearly for most MLB teams and there are usually very few surprises. Let’s review what the Phillies are faced with.

The Expendables

No, not the Sly Stallone movie. Instead, this is the group of players that you would be able to Designate for Assignment and have clear waivers or release and have a pretty good shot at re-signing them to a Minor League deal. Michael Martinez and Pete Orr fit this bill perfectly – light-hitting infielders that a team could pass through waivers but re-add to their squad in the event of an emergency. Or in the case of Martinez, the team having a bizarre fetish with one of baseball’s worst players. Add to this group Joe Savery and you have three folks off the 40-man.

The Non-Tenders

Including Lannan, the Phillies have 12 arbitration eligible players for the 2014 season. They are: Antonio Bastardo, Roger Bernadina, Kevin Frandsen, Kyle Kendrick, Cesar Jimenez, Martinez, John Mayberry Jr., Zach Miner, Ben Revere, Raul Valdes, and Casper Wells. Mayberry Jr., Miner, Valdes, and Wells very nearly made my expendables list: two below-replacement level outfielders and two below-replacement level relievers. None of these four players have any value to any other team, so you could not trade them.

Non-tendering or DFA’ing, my choice for Mayberry, those four, plus non-tendering or DFA’ing Martinez and Orr gets the 40-man roster to 39. Hooray! That was easy!

Protecting Your Prospects

Wrong.

By my count, the Phillies have at least 17 players they must protect in the Rule 5 draft. There are no-doubt-about-it additions to the 40-man roster like Kelly Dugan (20 HR, .291/.352/.506 across Clearwater and Reading in 2013), athletic projects like Aaron Altherr (.275/.337/.445 with 12 HR and 23 SB for Clearwater in 2013), minor league successes like Mike Nesseth (2.50 ERA in 68.1 IP across Clearwater, Reading, and Lehigh Valley) and David Buchanan (4-2 in 6 GS for Lehigh Valley after being called up from Reading), and former top prospects like Brody Colvin (6.40 ERA in 21 G, 14 GS for Reading). Oh, and don’t forget catching prospect Tommy Joseph. At age 22, question marks surround the former blue chipper’s health and ability to catch again.

Dugan, Altherr, and Nesseth seem to have the inside track at 40-man roster spots, or at least their ability to play themselves into one, after being invited to represent the Phillies in the Arizona Fall League. With the lack of depth in the outfield, the Phillies will likely want to keep Dugan and Altherr, so look for the Phillies to protect them by adding them to their 40-man roster. Buchanan and Nesseth wouldn’t surprise me as additions, either, and would be slam dunks in years where the 40-man is a little thinner. It would be quite surprising to let the bounty of the Hunter Pence trade go after just one bad-luck, injury filled season after a promising Spring with the big club and equally surprising to let the return for Michael Young, Rob Rasmussen walk.

Let’s say Dugan, Altherr, Rasmussen and Joseph are locks – Dugan and Joseph are slam dunks to be, at worst claimed in the Rule 5 and Altherr is the speedy pinch runner/defensive replacement type outfielder that is perfect for a team to hide on their roster for a year. The 40-man roster is back up to 43, eh?

Other notable players that are Rule 5 eligible: Seth Rosin, Kyrell Hudson, Steven Inch, Nick Hernandez, Perci Garner, Mario Hollands, Tyler Knigge, Carlos Alonso, Bob Stumpo, Ethan Stewart, Nefi Ogando, and Art Charles.

The Minor League Fun Doesn’t Stop There

No, no – there are more minor leaguers to make decisions on!

After sneaking them both through the Rule 5 draft last season, the Phillies must decide whether or not to offer Major League contracts to outfielders Leandro Castro and Jiwan James. Castro hit .256 with 8 HR and 20 SB in his first year with Lehigh Valley while James hit .270 with career-lows zero HR and eight SB, repeating High-A Clearwater. Castro is an intriguing name but his ceiling is likely that of a fifth outfielder in the Majors so I do not see the Phillies signing him to a Major League deal. And James? James had his second consecutive hugely disappointing season. I will pass on both.

Steve Susdorf saw a cameo with the big club but can also elect to become a minor league free agent. The popular Susdorf may, and likely will, be brought back on a separate minor league contract.

The two names that intrigue me from this pool are two players Joe Jordan lured away from the Orioles organization: Justin Dalles and Tyler Henson. Dalles, 24, has big arm behind the plate and hit well in a small sample against pitching that he was about two to three years older than in Clearwater and Reading. Henson ended the season on a hot streak after being called to Lehigh Valley to replace the promoted Cody Asche, hitting .316/.376/.526 with 8 2B, 4 HR, and 3 SB in 111 PA. With renewed catching depth in their system, Dalles will likely not be protected but will likely be a target to bring back on a Minor League deal with the third baseman Henson had the kind of season scouts expected from him after his 2007-2010 ascension from Low-A to Double-A.

Henson’s primary position is third base but is blocked by Asche and, presumably, Maikel Franco but his bat could play well in the outfield. It is truly doubtful the Phillies protect Henson but they may have found a diamond in the rough. Henson will get a longer look in 2014 from a Major League team after bouncing back at age 25.

There are no names from this group, but Henson really makes me pause. The 40-man roster stays at 43.

The Free Agents – Both Coming and Going

Because we’re still stuck at 43, we have to revisit the non-tender group and make some of them free agents. With Adam Morgan, Jesse Biddle, and possibly Austin Wright manning the IronPigs starting rotation in 2014 and Tyler Cloyd either making the team or being shuttled back and forth again, Kendrick becomes expendable, as does Lannan. With these two moves, the 40-man roster is back down to 41.

Don’t stop there, though. Even with Roy Halladay‘s encouraging performance last night, I wouldn’t bring him back. Without Halladay, Kendrick, Lannan, the 40-man roster is down to 40 with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Jonathan Pettibone, and Ethan Martin as your presumed 2014 rotation, with a pinch of Morgan and Cloyd. It would not surprise me if Morgan beat out Martin for the final spot in the rotation or if the Phillies signed an additional starter. In this scenario, Morgan or the free agent starter becomes your 41st on the 40-man.

Whether or not Chooch is resigned, the Phillies will sign a catcher. Chooch’s spot behind the dish is a net zero.

While the Phillies outfield may look set with Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, and Darin Ruf, don’t be surprised if the club signs a starting-caliber outfielder, bumping the 40-man up to 42. This is where the first semi-surprises would come: the Phillies would designate Sebastian Valle and J.C. Ramirez for assignment to get back down to 40. If the Phillies choose to sign another player, here are, in order, my choices to designate for assignment to get them back under 40: Tyson Gillies and Jeremy Horst. Designate one of those two and the Phillies are at 39 – designate them both and you have room for a free agent pitcher AND Morgan as well as two other players.

Under these circumstances, the 40-man would look like this for 2014:

Pitchers: Adams, Aumont, Bastardo, Cloyd, De Fratus, Diekman, Garcia, Gonzalez, Hamels, Jimenez, Lee, Martin, Papelbon, Pettibone, Robles, Rasmussen, Rosenberg, Stutes, Free Agent Signing

Catchers: Chooch/FA, Kratz, Rupp, Joseph

Infielders: Asche, Frandsen, Galvis, Hernandez, Howard, Rollins, Utley

Outfielders: Altherr, Bernadina, Brown, Collier, Dugan, Revere, Ruf, Free Agent Signing

Free spaces: 2

Tough Calls:

Not on 40-man: Castro, Henson, Horst, Kendrick, Knigge, Lannan, Nesseth

Keeping on 40-man: Hewitt, Jimenez, Rasmussen Stutes

Internal Candidates for 2014 that do not need to be protected: Biddle, Franco, Morgan

This has the makings of being one of the most important winters in Phillies history – it also has the possibility of being one of the most hectic and confusing.

(Edited at 4:33 PM to address additions of Rob Rasmussen and Nefi Ogando, who were originally missed in the Rule 5 eligible count)

Avatar of Ian Riccaboni

About Ian Riccaboni

Ian Riccaboni has written 848 articles on Phillies Nation.

Ian's athletic achievements include getting stuffed by NBA center Aaron Gray in high school and hitting .179 over four years for NYU against D-III, NAIA, JuCo, and NCBA schools. Ian hopes his athletic successes will help him achieve his dream of becoming the underground Bob Uecker.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

    I would dfa Rosenberg, Garcia, bernadina, and j.c Ramirez before valle… I keep halladay and valle, I would move Martin to the bullpen, so the rotation is hamels Lee Gonzalez halladay pettibone….

    I would look into signing saltalamacchia at catcher and maybe resign chooch for backup, if Rupp or valle or Joseph isn’t ready to at least backup….

    I would also look into Beltran, Morse, or Cruz as our third outfielder spot, because we need right hand power, and barring a trade they are options…

    It is gonna be tough but interesting offseason

     
  • Posts: 0 Jaron B

    I’m keeping Mayberry & K.K. Good breakdown. Please check out mine: http://jbreezyphillies.blogspot.com/

     
  • Posts: 0 Cs

    Thanks Ian! I love the Hot Stove just as much as the regular season.

     
  • Posts: 3085 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    In re: Mini Mart … “bizarre fetish” …. That’s the best way to describe this particular situation.

    —————

    As for Halladay…if he continues to have nights like last night for the next 3 weeks then I definitely enteretain the idea of bringing him back on a cheap, team-friendly, incentive-laden deal. I’m thinking that a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Gonzalez and Pettibone wouldn’t be all that shabby.

     
  • Posts: 0 hk

    With the exception of Hamels, the roster is a mix of older players with question marks about age and declining skills and younger players with question marks about potential and/or health. Even Dom Brown has yet to prove that he can play 150+ games per year. As such, I have no problem with the front office’s stated mandate that they should compete each year as long as trying to compete in 2014 does not hurt the team in 2015 and beyond. To me, this means that they should do the following:

    1. Avoid all free agents who would cost them their 1st round pick and only sign a free agent who would cost them their 2nd round pick if the deal for that free agent is too good to pass up.

    2. Limit the length of any free agent deals they sign to the latter of 2 years or through the player’s age 33 season. For example, I’d sooner see them sign Chooch to a 1 year deal with a vesting option than Brian McCann to a 5 year deal and/or overpay (in $) Carlos Beltran on a 1 year deal with a team option rather than sign a Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury for 5+ years. I’d also be okay with them signing Matt Garza, but only for 4 or fewer years.

    3. Take some shots in free agency on players who are trying to restore their value following a bad and/or injury plagued year like Pittsburgh did with Francisco Liriano this past off-season. Roy Halladay would seem to fit this description, as would Josh Johnson and maybe even Grady Sizemore if the contract terms were such that they only paid big money if he reached certain incentives.

    4. Avoid all urges to trade any of the team’s legitimate prospects unless the player coming back was a similarly rated prospect.

     
    • Posts: 3085 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      Totally agree on the Chooch-McCann comparison. Plus, McCann is better suited for an AL team that may want someone who can catch some in the beginning of his deal but then transition to a !B/DH. As much as all of us might salivate over his bat, the Phillies are NOT a good fit for his services.

       
      • Posts: 5532 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        Plus, McCann bats left-handed, the addition of a lefty batting catcher to a heavily left side hitting order, especially if they go with Asche next year, would make them pretty vulnerable in the late innings IMO.

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        Along the same lines Lefty, Saltalamacchia is a FA and is a switch hitter, but he can’t hit lefties, which is the issue. McCann is better than Salty vs LHPs, but still not great, esp. the last two years (100 wRC+ vs. LHPs for his career, 81 the last two years).

        Chooch is probably the better fit for this lineup, if he can hit anything close to what he has the last month-plus (.905 OPS since 7/30), which granted might be a big if.

         
      • Posts: 5532 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        At this stage, I’m not too concerned about having a great hitting catcher. We need a great defensive catcher first and foremost. We have over 50m invested in two pitchers, they need a reliable catcher that they can count on to block breaking balls and change ups, frame the ball well, and call a good game. If that’s Chooch, and the hitting lately is just a mirage, then that might still be the way to go.

        It’s interesting that Saltalamacchia doesn’t hit lefties, because he hit a decent amount of HR”s this season to right field. I just have no interest in McCann at all based on age and projected contract.

        I don’t know if this will copy properly, but all of Jarrod’s long balls went out of “the CBP overlay”.

        http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2013_275&type=hitter

         
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        unlikely chooch will continue with a .905 ops… I’d expect him to stay around .800 or a little lower, his career average is .774 so I think he’s not gonna go to far up from that…. that being said he’s one of the best defensive catchers in the game, but right now I’d really like to see what Rupp could do…

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        Hogey, agree, and McCann/Salty aren’t going to hit much better than that, if at all.

         
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        I agree there schmenkman, just saltalamacchia is under 30 and Ruiz is 35…. however out of those three Ruiz is probably the best defensively… I wouldn’t mind bringing chooch back for maybe 5 million with an option for a second year, maybe have Rupp be backup next year and learn everything possible from chooch so he can eventually take over

         
    • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

      Hopefully we lose enough to protect our first round pick

       
      • Posts: 0 hk

        I agree with this. Even so, they should be very judicious with signing someone that will cost them their 2nd round pick and the slot money that comes with the pick. They need to rebuild the farm system and a pick in the 40′s has some value.

         
      • Posts: 0 Alex M.

        hk,

        I completely agree on that, we need to sign players that are not going to cost us any picks and if we can find ways to gain picks we need to do that as well. I mean look at this past year Austin Wilson was a late 40s pick and there were a ton of other players that would be great for the Phils 2nd round pick. Thats why I said Morse or Hart, both will likely not cost the Phils a pick.

         
  • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

    While I found a lot of what was written pretty easy to agree with, I don’t see how you/they can have Ethan Martin penned in as 1 of the 5 starters. Counting on him, even just to start the year is really risky. It’s a command thing with him, and while I don’t know too much about Pettibone’s exact situation with his shoulder, the potential tenuous nature of that makes the 5 a little more important. Plus, while he continues to pitch well, it’s a little presumptuous to think Cliff has his usual vintage stuff all year as he’s getting up there.

    They got gaps in several spots, but the rotation should NOT be ignored. Even if Gonzalez does a good job, they need another dependable starter that is more likely to contribute than Martin in 2014.

     
  • Posts: 0 Eric

    I can’t believe no one is suggesting it’s time to cut ties with Aumont.

    So I will: Cut this dead weight. It’s also time for Savery and Ramirez to go, too.

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      No, Aumont has too much talent to just give up on so quickly. They can give him years to figure it out in the minors, and they probably should, unless someone offers value in a trade.

       
    • Posts: 0 Alex M.

      Why would you get rid of Aumont? There is no incentive to cutting him lose, you currently have no right handers out of the pen that are worth anything other than Pap and Adams and maybe De Fratus. Why not keep him around and see if he can turn things around? In his last 10 games with LHV this season he had an ERA of 1.35 with 15 Ks in 13 innings. Now he did have high numbers of walks but those numbers are encouraging and should not be ignored. He is the only righty that we have that can throw 97mph and up. I agree that Savery and Ramirez should go but Aumont is too talented to just give up on when he is only 24.

       
  • Posts: 0 Ian Case

    I just don’t see how Martin can be penciled in. He’s been awful. Send him back to LV if they really think he just needs more work, but he’s almost a guaranteed 4 runs over 5 innings.

     
  • Posts: 0 Tom H.

    I would bring Doc back on a very incentive laden deal. Ditch Kendrick, Aumont, Mayberry, Garcia, Gillies and Ramirez.

     
  • Posts: 0 Alex M.

    Nice Artilce Ian the only complaint I have is that you ignored both Rassmussen and Ogando who will be Rule 5 eligible.

    When looking at the rotation I see Hamels and Lee and after that a lot of question marks. Gonzalez looks like a great talent, but putting a player that has never pitched in the US and has injury concerns and making him a rotation lock is insane. He has to prove he fits first. As for Kendrick and Lannan, both should have been aggressively shopped at the deadline when they were pitching well, now they both should be non-tendered. Kendrick has not proven that he is worth more than $7M a season, if he is willing to take a discount then fine keep him but he just has too many question marks. Lannan should not be brought back, period. Other options are Pettibone, Martin, Morgan, Cloyd and Free Agents.

    In terms of free agents at all positions of need looking at catcher the obvious option is Jared Saltalamacchia. Signing him to a deal that is only 3 years or to a one year contract that is 10M+. The whole catching discussion could actually be decided in September, if Rupp comes out and shows he belongs I think he is starting in spring. In the outfield there are not a ton of options that would not cause us to lose picks some options are….Corey Hart, Michael Morse, Nate McLouth, Curtis Granderson and Marlon Byrd. Of those options only Hart and Morse would actually fill needs with right handed bats. Both would be looking for a chance to redeem themselves so an incentive laden contract could be possible. Finally in the rotation with two dominate lefties we need a constant right handed pitcher some options Arroyo, Burnett, Feldman, Garza, Hammel, Haren, Hughes, Johnson and Lincecum. Out of those options Arroyo and Burnett are 37. Feldman, Hammel and Hughes are fringe starters. Haren, Johnson and Lincecum are all struggling and Garza is going to command $100M. Out of all of those options Bronson Arroyo makes the most sense for the Phillies, he is a good veteran righty that has shown consistancy his entire career and keeps his team in games. I think this season the Reds have won 16 of the games that Arroyo has started and the guy does not walk many players. I think a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Arroyo, Gonzalez and Pettibone would be formidable. I would have no problem offering Arroyo $22M for two seasons. Not a lot of risk and if your looking to contend it is a solid deal.

    The bullpen is going to be crazy and honestly I think that the Phillies need to use September as a tryout for bullpen pitchers. Papelbon should rarely pitch because we know he will be here next season. Let everyone else take a shot, I am a little upset that RAJ did not call up Aumont, Friend and possibly Rassmusen because they all should be trying to see if they have what it takes in the majors. Also moving Ethan Martin to the pen could be a huge boost and honestly the kid has closer type stuff, what is the harm in giving it a try in September? Let Cloyd start in Martin’s spot and let Martin pitch out of the pen.

     
    • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

      I agree Rupp should get a look this month to see if he’s ready, however they need to put him in the f.n lineup for that to happen..

      Agree with moving Martin to the bullpen and bringing up Rasmussen to try him out

       
    • Posts: 454 Ian Riccaboni

      Avatar of Ian Riccaboni

      Thanks for the heads up on Rasmussen and Ogando! I used the draft lists and trade results to compile but somehow forgot the two most recent! There were also players like Albert Cartwright who missed the cut on purpose because there would have been entirely too many to write about from the potential MiLB FA pool so I limited it to Castro, James, Dalles, Henson, etc.

       
      • Posts: 0 Alex M.

        I agree I would not have included Cartwright either but Rassmusen and Ogando look like decent prospects that the Phils would like lose in the the Rule 5 draft

         
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        Y not bring up Rasmussen and ogando now to see what they’re capable of before we have to make all these decisions on people we have no idea what they can do??

         
    • Posts: 0 wbramh

      I like your starting 4 rotation of Hamels, Lee, Arroyo and Gonzalez and I suppose Pettibone is as good a bet right now for #5 as anyone in the system. I fear Doc is likely cooked and neither Lannan nor Kendricks can cut it.
      I also agree with you that Arroyo is the right guy to pursue in terms of need, cost and steadiness. If they can’t sign Bronson I’d take a hard look at Lincecum. Garza is a decent pitcher but will be way overpriced for a #3. I realize it’s a big gamble (despite the no-hitter) but I think Lincecum could still be a #3 or #4 guy in this rotation. I mean, we just signed a pitcher who’s never thrown a pitch in MLB AND is coming off an arm injury to a pretty hefty contract based on his limited resumé and assume he’s going to be our #3 starter (if Ruben ignores FA candidates).
      Of course Gonzalez and Lincecum could both be in rehab (and Doc retired) by May 1st.
      Sign Arroyo, Ruben!
      Make an old man happy.

       
      • Posts: 0 Alex M.

        Thanks for the reply, I would agree that Lincecum would be a decent target if Arroyo is not possible. The only thing with him is that SF can retain him for $14M and they are likely going to do that, it would be a decent one year gamble to see if he can return to his Cy Young form.

         
  • Posts: 3085 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Yeah, I’m certainly no expert but it does seem as though Martin’s not starter material. The pen may be where he really shines. Not convinced that Rich Dubee is the right man to make those decisions though. I would imagine that he’s gone after this year anyway?

     
    • Posts: 0 Alex M.

      Chuck, I am not an expert either but Martin has future closer written all over him. He throws a hard fastball that reaches 97mph and in a bullpen role it would not surprise me if he got it up closer to 99mph. His slider is really solid with great movement and a great curveball that just freezes hitters. He is at his best in the first couple of innings during his starts because he can throw his fastball at 95, but the 6th inning that same fastball is down to 91mph with less movement. He could be something special out of the pen.

       
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        “He is at his best in the first couple of innings during his starts because he can throw his fastball at 95, but the 6th inning that same fastball is down to 91mph with less movement ”

        This is where people rushing Martin to the bullpen are looking at things through what I perceive as the wrong angle.

        They seem to have a tendency to think that because Martin throws hard early, and doesn’t last, it’s because of some inability in his approach.

        Since watching him only since he got to the Phils, and only on TV, I’ve developed 2 “theories on him.

        One, there’s something wrong with his approach. Or the coaching he’s getting. If he’s learn to take something off his pitches, and pace himself a little, he’d perhaps have better command and endurance. That might have something to do with why a Justin Verlander, excepted by this season gets stronger as his games go on. I’ll admit that in his 2nd from last assignment, a home weekday day game (Mets?), he threw in the low 90′s the first2 innings (90-92) and while those innigs went well, it turned into the same old same old. But I don’t know if he intentionally threw slower, or if it was another factor.

        Secondly, if Martin simultaneously improved his fastball command, and upped his use of the changeup, you’d see about 2 more innings per start. Not to mention more confidence, which, to some additional extent, predicts even better results.

        It’s still a good year or so too early to just throw him to the pen, and expect him to blossom there because he throws hard. Let alone just because of the reasons he hasn’t cut it as a starter. But, then again, while no team runs perfect on trades, the Dodgers dealt him for 2 months of Sterling Joe Blanton, so maybe he’s a little hyped by Phillie fans and followers.

         
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        Pretty sure we got him for victorino

         
      • Posts: 0 Alex M.

        Ken, the major knock on Martin has always been his command. Command is something that is tough to teach and if he has not mastered it already it may be tough for him to ever get there. Martin was always thought of as a starter that would likely have to make the move to the pen at some point just because he just cannot maintain the performance past a certain amount of innings. Even in LHV this season he averaged 5.5 innings an appearance. Can he possibly improve, yeah maybe but the other factor in this decision is where does he fit? Next season the rotation will have maybe 1 spot open for competition between Cloyd, Pettibone, Morgan and Martin all fighting for that spot. Honestly I would rather have Pettibone go out there as our 5th starter because he is much more consistent and to me can still get better and improve his solid command. That leaves Morgan, Cloyd and Martin all in AAA, well Buchanan and Biddle are going to be in AAA next season and Rosin, Garner, Holland and Gonzalez are right there too. Do the math it is going to be very difficult for Martin to start next season. On the other hand look at the bullpen, in terms of prospects in AAA you have Nesseth and Johnson(lefty) both of whom have MLB potential but likely wont be on the active roster for 2014. After that you have Simon and Knigge who are okay but may never amount to anything. You have to go to Clearwater till you get to some legitimate relief prospects like Child, Giles, Inch and O’Sullivan. Look at the current Phils pen, Pap will be here unless they trade him, Adams has one more season on his deal and they may resign him if he improves. Bastardo is a mystery, it would not surprise me if Amaro got rid of him at some point for his dishonesty. Other options Horst is 27(28 in October) and eligible for Arb in 2015, Stutes is also 27 and is arb eligible this year, Diekman is 26 and is arb eligible till 2016, De Fratus is 25 and arb eligible next season, Rosenberg will be 28 this month and is arb eligible in 2016 and the list continues. Other than De Fratus none of these guys have done enough to ensure themselves a spot for next season or the future. Not to mention, other than Diekman, none of these guys has dominating stuff. Martin would be great in the pen and the fact that our farm system has really struggled to produce a solid reliever in recent memory could force this move.

        Do you really want to sit here and play wait and see with Martin? If we wait your two years he will be 26 and arb eligible, what happens if he has done nothing? It will be a complete waste. My idea is for the rest of this season have him pitch out of the pen, what have we got to lose? He is already closing in on 150 innings for the season, why not give him a shot out of the pen, if he falters then move him back to the rotation in spring. If he excels why not keep him there? Martin even said it himself, when he hits the 60 pitch mark he starts to struggle. Why not let him go as hard as possible for one inning and see what happens?

         
  • Posts: 0 Bart Shart

    Key question: Do you trust the decision-making ability of Ruben Amaro, Jr. to make the most of this upcoming offseason?

     
    • Posts: 0 Alex M.

      No, ive said it before if we get a protected 1st rounder do not be surprised if Hunter Pence is back in Phillies pinstripes. Amaro loves the guy and he is arguably the best outfielder on the market. As much as I love Pence it would be a mistake to sign him.

       
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Bart, I am probably not as pessimistic about him as some people, but I suppose that’s neither here nor there. He’s the GM, there is no indication his job is in danger, and we have to hope he makes decent decisions.

       
    • Posts: 0 c. schreiber

      I can live with just about anyone on the 14 roster as long as NEVER see MiniMart in Phillies red.

       
      • Posts: 0 wbramh

        MiniMart would make an easily reusable crash test dummy since he rarely makes contact with anything.

         
  • Posts: 0 Mike in NJ

    What’s it going to take to get rid of Michael Martinez? He is so terrible offensively you can’t justify keeping him for his glove, even if it was gold glove caliber (which it isn’t). He’s not even all that fast, and not really a good PR because he’s not a SB threat. I’d keep Bernadina over Martinez, and I don’t want him back either. Are you telling me we have no other minor leaguer deserving of a Sept cup of coffee over this stiff? I wouldn’t keep Martinez if we had a 100 man roster.

    I don’t see how anyone can pencil in Martin as a starter at this point. He seems to have good stuff, but not enough quality pitches for a starter. He belongs in the BP if anywhere, IMO.

    I love McCann’s bat (especially in this ball park), but he’s already breaking down physically, and is yet another LH bat. If they signed him, you’d likely have 6 of your starting 8 as LH bats. Personally, I don’t think it’s that big of a deal in a league where 72% of pitchers are RH, but it still seems to go against conventional wisdom.

     
  • Posts: 0 TID

    Totally unrelated to this topic, but very poignant for a topic I discussed a few weeks back with people here, and those thinking the 2015 Phils TV deal will be huge…

    http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/53498716

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Along these lines, there is a good two-part overview of the issue and how it relates to the Phils (published Tuesday and today), over at the good phight.

       
      • Posts: 0 TID

        Perfect. This is what I was saying. Essentially, going forward MLB teams should sign shorter-term deals when their team sucks and longer-term deals when they’re good. Let’s hope for the latter, but it probably ain’t happenin.

        The Phils success came juuuussst a bit too early.

         
  • Posts: 0 Greg Sampson

    No Halladay? I really think you have overthought this into a mess.

     
  • Posts: 0 Erik Diem

    When it comes to the proposed roster posted above. There is definately 1 mistake up there….. Bastardo WILL NOT be back next year. There is no way the Phils are bringing him back. They will Non-tender his contract and he ‘s gone. That opens up a another roster spot.

     
    • Posts: 454 Ian Riccaboni

      Avatar of Ian Riccaboni

      He was their most effective left-handed reliever statistically (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=26&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0) and will cost under $2 million for next season.

      He will absolutely be back – the Phillies have no aversion to players that are or have been suspended for PED use: http://philliesnation.com/archives/2013/08/them-cheatin-phillies/

       
      • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

        Bastardo is one of our best if not our best reliever… releasing him would be the stupidest thing anyone has done to date for the Phillies

         
      • Posts: 0 devin

        That may be true, but I definitely remember him blowing at least one game. If I can remember him blowing at least one game, imagine how many games that means he must have blown? Countless. You can keep your fancy stats, Bastardo is a bum who has blown countless games because that is what I remember and I am far too stupid to try and interpret any other sources of information.

         
      • Posts: 3085 Chuck A.

        Avatar of Chuck A.

        So he’s a bum just because he got caught taking PEDs?? Does that mean you think Chooch is a bum as well? Please.

        Bastardo should and will be back. Yes, he’s blown some leads. They all do. But he IS and has been one our most effective bullpen pieces.

         
    • Posts: 0 devin

      Chuck: If you were responding to me, I’m not sure you read my comment all the way through. Otherwise, carry on.

       
  • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

    Masahiro Tanaka

    now 19-0. Now with an ERA of 1.20.

    And oh, by the way, with 6 complete games.

    And he’ll be posted for next year.

    You never ever see any reports of Phillie interest in him. Not that I expect them to corner the foreign market off the Gonzalez signing, but I’d like to know why there aren’t reports of Phillie interest or put the question to Ruben as to why that is.

    Spare me the Japanese lesser talent higher risk horseshit. This guy looks like he’s got some serious tools.

     
    • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

      I don’t remember hearing anything about the Phillies interest in Gonzalez before we signed him….

      I will say one thing for Ruben, he is the master at keeping things underwraps until the deal is agreed to…

      Anything is possible, it could happen

       
    • Posts: 0 wbramh

      I think the Yankees are going to go after Tanaka, aggressively.
      He doesn’t have quite the numbers Darvish had coming out of Japan but they’re close, plus Tanaka throws hard enough (around 94 mph) and more importantly has some really nasty breaking stuff. He’ll make some team very happy.

      I’m guessing he’ll land a 6 year contract in the $45-55 million range.
      $55 if the Yankees really want him.

       
      • Posts: 2071 Brooks

        Avatar of Brooks

        I knew someone would mention Toro Tanaka eventually!
        How would it be to have someone like this roaming either CF or RF?
        (based on 162 games)
        On a pace to hit almost 20 hrs
        Hitting over .290
        On a pace to score over 100 runs & have more than 30 doubles and by the way, has been on the AS team, with experience.
        Yes, I am talking about (soon to be) 33 year old Shane Victorino who is having what used to be a typical season for him up in Boston – btw – with 20 SB.

         
      • Posts: 0 George

        I don’t see what Victorino has to do with Tanaka, and I also don’t see what he has to do with the current Phils roster.

        Sure, it’d be nice to have that sort of production. It’d also be nice to have Babe Ruth’s production, or Mickey Mantle’s. But as far as the Phils are concerned, they’re both history, and shouldn’t figure into the roster conversation whatsoever.

        If you’re trying to say that this is an example of one of Amaro’s errors with roster construction, I’d have to disagree. Victorino is making way more money for more years than he should be. Given his age and his declining production in 2011 and 2012, I think the Sox will regret the move eventually. This is Vic’s rebound year, but it’s also probably going to be the only one.

         
    • Posts: 0 George

      The biggest problem with Japanese imports isn’t the contract. It’s the posting fee. If the bid isn’t high enough, someone else gets the guy or his Japanese team just keeps him. If you have to pay $40M to win the negotiation rights, a $50M contract actually costs $90M.

      There are many, many teams that won’t get involved in such a risky mess, because even though a bad contract can sometimes be traded, you can never recover the posting fee. That could be money used to find someone just as good. $40M would have paid two Halladay for both of his best seasons as a Phillie. Even if the posting fee is a paltry $15M it would have been enough to get multiple seasons out of Brown, Asche, and Cesar Hernandez.

      A Tanaka would have to be slam-dunk fabulous to even think about risking that kind of money.

       
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        George,

        This posting situation’s being renegotiated with the intent of it being completed by this year’s Japanese free agency.with the idea being that the player gets more of the money.I guess Lincoln just freed the slaves over here. Yu at 10 mil for another 3-4 years is pretty funny. But for sure, that posting fee is in Howard’s, wa…. ooops, I mean killer stuff. Damn keyboard.

        I’m not trying to be obnoxious here, especially since it’s not like his whole year has been bad, but we had a discussion months ago about KK, and you had some positive things to say about him. Where you at on him now?

         
      • Posts: 0 George

        I know the posting situation is being negotiated, but but the final outcome is an unknown in both what will be done and when it will be done.

        As far as KK goes, my positive position has perhaps taken a hit, but please remember that those comments were made about a 4th starter. He’s hit a bad stretch, yes. But he’s also headed for another whole year of not missing an assigned start and not landing on the DL. Not a lot of #4′s can say that, and not a lot of #4′s can put up the kind of numbers he did earlier in the season.

        I’ll never claim he’s an ace, but I will say he’s likely to right the ship somewhat, and that he still has value.

         
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        It’d be nice to see him right it instead of going out with a string of consecutive crummy starts I’ve almost forgotten he can be enjoyable to watch when he’s on. Quite so, in fact.

        I guess the reason I asked was I recall several people expecting some good things for the year, and it’s not like he’s completely failed. But I am tired of watching him not pitch well so often of late.

        I didn’t say much there, I was more interested in how you saw things. Better things to come.

         
    • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

      fwiw…AS OF fRI AFTERNOON….

      Ken (Bay Area)

      What is your take on the ceiling for Tanaka? Most seem to think he can be a #2, not quite Darvish, but still a high level SP, what say you?

      Klaw
      (1:44 PM)

      I have not seen him myself. What I have heard from scouts is that he’s less than that.

       
  • Posts: 0 George

    I really don’t think some of the so-called obvious moves people are proposing are based on much more than raw numbers. I’d like to see some of these minor leaguers play. An “AA” talent can sometimes post great numbers there but be a bust at the next level, and many times scouts and coaches can see this whereas the average fan cannot. Watching a player everyday is what development departments do; fans can’t because of ticket costs, family obligations, and what-have-you.

    A few moves might be obvious, like getting rid of Martinez and other filler, but saying that a Valle should go before a Gillies, or picking between any two players who’ve posted similar stats is something I’m simply not prepared to do. The scouting staff is paid to make the right decisions and they’re way more experienced at doing so.

    If any minor leaguer who looks like a decent player is not put on the roster, I think I’d be presumptuous to complain without having seen that player in action nearly every day, watched his behavior in the clubhouse, and seen his reactions to coaching suggestions.

     
  • [...] Phillies Nation tries to untangle the headache that is the Phillies’ 40-man roster.’ [...]

     
  • Posts: 0 Jar

    One thing to remember for the young players that need to be added to the 40 man is that any of them taken in the rule 5 draft would have to stay on the other teams big league roster for the entire year, or be offered back. Most of them would not be able to hold down that spot.

     
 
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