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Free Agent Pass or Play: Joe Nathan

Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Fri, November 01, 2013 09:36 PM | Comments: 9
Acquisitions, Analysis, Features, Free Agency, Free Agent: Pass or Play 2013, Offseason, Opinion, Transactions

Each day until free agency begins, we at Phillies Nation will take a look at a player who will become a free agent five days from the conclusion of the World Series. We will explore potential performance, fit, cost, and feasibility. We continue today with right-handed closer Joe Nathan. And a reminder: you can check out all the “Pass or Play” posts by clicking on the category hyperlink.

Performance

Wow – if someone would have told me in between the 2011 and 2012 seasons that Joe Nathan would put up an All-Star campaign in 2012 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.057 WHIP, I would have said you were crazy. If you would have told me that Nathan would improve upon that season in 2013 at age 38, 1.39 ERA and a 0.897 WHIP, I would have tried to get you committed. But that’s what happened – Nathan defied the odds and became one of the few non-team-controlled closers to actually be worth their salary (worth $20.2 million in 2012 and 2013 v. a $14.5 salary).

Nathan has fairly even splits with a moderate platoon split found in OBPa and has maintained a K/9 rate over 10 in seasons where he has been fully healthy. The red flag for me comes in his BABIP: despite the near point-and-a-half drop in ERA and a drop in WHIP, Nathan’s BB/9 IP rate actually was his highest since 2003, jumping almost a full walk per 9 IP. So how did Nathan lower his WHIP? His BABIP was a career-low .224, indicating that Nathan got rather lucky against his BAA of .159. Definitely a lot of skill, but the sharp increase in walks with a dropping WHIP indicates he had his fair share of balls that were hit right at his defense.

Fit

As mentioned earlier today when talking about Jose Veras, the Phillies’ bullpen was ranked 14th out of 15th in ERA, FIP, and xFIP in the National League last season and there are not a ton of promising bullpen arms that the Phillies haven’t yet seen in the Majors. Like Veras, Nathan is a fit performance-wise, however, Nathan will be 38 on Opening Day.

Cost

This is where it gets crazy – the Rangers picked up his $9 million option for 2014 but Nathan declined his half, effectively risking leaving $9 million on the table as a 38-year old reliever. That’s guts.

With this in mind, Nathan is likely looking for more than $9 million or something like $15 million over two years. FanGraphs’ crowdsourcing efforts has Nathan at a $8-10 million per year deal for two years.

Feasibility

As much is made about, and joked about, the so-called “closer’s mentality”, Nathan held out for the right opportunity before 2012, i.e. the opportunity to close, before signing. While the cost and performance issues should be red flags, I don’t see Nathan coming to the Phillies but instead going somewhere to close or going to a contender as a set-up man to chase a ring. I don’t think Nathan would come to Philadelphia.

Verdict: Pass, Don’t Think Twice

Nathan’s age is a significant risk in it’s own right but with performance concerns, the fact that the Phillies already have two relievers making a combined $22 million, and the simple fact that the Phillies could plug a hole in the outfield with a pretty solid player for the same price, Nathan is among the easiest passes of the series.

Avatar of Ian Riccaboni

About Ian Riccaboni

Ian Riccaboni has written 848 articles on Phillies Nation.

Ian's athletic achievements include getting stuffed by NBA center Aaron Gray in high school and hitting .179 over four years for NYU against D-III, NAIA, JuCo, and NCBA schools. Ian hopes his athletic successes will help him achieve his dream of becoming the underground Bob Uecker.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 CS

    He’s an easy pass on age yes. But the phillies need to s

     
  • Posts: 0 CS

    Sorry. They need to spend on at least one arm, if not a second via trade. Well done cranking these stories out.

     
  • Posts: 0 Keith

    I don’t know if there’s any reliever out there that would be a play unless they want less than $2M a year

     
  • Posts: 0 ZachL

    The biggest issue would be cost to come here specifically. Nathan is at an age and in a mentality where he wants to play for a real contender, and I don’t want to think about what we would have to add to the deal to compensate for the fact that we almost certainly won’t be one.

     
  • Posts: 2 pread71

    Avatar of pread71

    play.. pen was a major issue this year….

     
  • Posts: 0 Bart Shart

    Nathan needs to play for a contender. He would not be motivated with a rebuilding team like Philly. In fact, playing here at his age and with his experience would be a disaster for him and the Phils……..PASS

     
    • Posts: 0 hk

      Agreed. Plus, he’s a closer and the Phils are already paying $12.5M per year to Papelbon for 2014, 2015 and probably 2016. The shame of it is that the Phillies played the PASS or PLAY game with closers two years and overpaid for Papelbon (and squandered a 1st round pick for the right to do so) while Texas got Nathan on a shorter, cheaper deal and got more production from him.

       
  • Posts: 0 wbramh

    Talent-wise Nathan is hard to beat even at age 38 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has Rivera-like longevity. I’d take him in a New York minute over Papelbon but the die has been cast. Unless they can dump Papelbon’s whole salary I don’t think it’s going to happen.
    Too many sore spots that don’t involve taking a beating on preexisting mistakes.

     
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr

    Pass to expensive they have Papelhead. Unless they can somehow trade him. Also iffy on his age. Seems like we dont have much luck with these older guys.

     
 
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