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Ken Giles, And The Battle For Closer In 2015

Posted by Jonathan Nisula, Fri, August 29, 2014 11:00 AM | Comments: 7
Analysis, Opinion, Posts, Statistical Analysis

PHOTO: (AP/Chris Szagola)

PHOTO: (AP/Chris Szagola)

Ken Giles has been good this year. Really good. The 23 year old, flamethrowing reliever was called up on June 8 after Mike Adams was placed on the disabled list with shoulder issues. Giles had a 1.88 ERA and 12 saves in the minors for Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley prior to the call up.

He was only expected to fill in for Adams and provide some spark in the late innings ahead of Jonathan Papelbon.

But he’s done so much more.

In 32 appearances and 33.2 innings, Giles has given up just six runs–five earned, good for an ERA of 1.34. He doesn’t give up many home runs (0.27 per 9), and doesn’t allow much contact–battersare making contact at a rate 67.4% against him, 4th in the NL. He has a 5.33 K/BB ratio, which is 8th in the NL (relievers, min 30 IP), and largely due to his absurd amount (48) of strikeouts. Among NL relievers with at least 30 innings pitched, both his K/9 (12.83) and his K% (38.1%) are in the top five. An interesting and unrelated note–Jake Diekman is right up there with Giles in both those categories.

Giles has an average velocity of 97.1 on his fastball, second in MLB to only cyborg Aroldis Chapman of the Reds. He also throws a nasty slider, and, according to PITCHf/x data, is the 16th most valuable in the league. 32 of his 48 strikeouts (two thirds) have come via the slider, and opponents are hitting just .137/.154/.157 against it. He’s given up just one extra base hit in 208 sliders thrown (0.48%).

The fastball-slider combo reminds me of another Phillies closer–Brad Lidge. His fastball velocity hovered around 95 MPH before he began to lose it (the average fell to about 89 MPH by 2011) and his slider was valued at 4th in all of baseball from 2007-2011. About 81.8% of his strikeouts came via his slider, and opponents hit just .190/.251/.301 against it. They’d only make contact on 54.8% of swings against it, and hit just 35 extra base hits in 2202 total pitches seen (1.6%).

PHOTO: (AP/Laurence Kesterson)

PHOTO: (AP/Laurence Kesterson)

The current closer for the Phillies–Jonathan Papelbon–has been as good as ever in 2014. He has an ERA of 1.60 (11th in NL), a K/BB ratio of 4.15 (21st in NL, and a fastball valued at 4th best in the NL. Many of his numbers this year are somewhere near his career bests, even though his fastball velocity is down. I should also mention that a few of his numbers are somewhere near his career lows as well. He gets a lot of flack for his comments to the media and his slow pace on the mound, but there’s no denying he’s been good this year.

But what about next year? The Phillies have been openly trying to trade Papelbon, or “Cinco Ocho”, as he likes to call himself–no no avail. In that article, Ken Rosenthal ponders that the lack of interest in Papelbon might be due to his falling velocity and his personality, but that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn’t think so.

Regardless, the Phillies will have to make a decision on Papelbon for next year, because Giles seems ready to take over at closer and I don’t think it’s likely that Papelbon can continue to pitch at this level. If they want to go with Giles, they will have to get rid of Papelbon in some capacity, whether it be via trade or release, because Papelbon will not want to be a setup man, even though he’s really helped groom Giles this year.

I think Giles deserves it, and I think Papelbon will regress next year, and has rubbed Phillies fans the wrong way too often for the Phillies to sell him as the closer over Giles in 2015.

Avatar of Jonathan Nisula

About Jonathan Nisula

Jonathan Nisula has written 239 articles on Phillies Nation.

Just a regular guy writing his thoughts for Phillies Nation. Grew up in Yardley, PA and current student.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Bob D

    Giles may very well be the best reliever on the team, but keeping Papelbon for next year I feel just makes the relief corps all the much stronger. 2015 could be a dominate year in the bullpen with Papelbon, Giles, Defratus, Deikman, Hollands, and maybe Gonzalez and Martin if they are not put into rotation. Jimenez also has been solid and would be great to see him return.

    This bullpen is now turning into a home grown bullpen which helps save money to improve elsewhere. Which if they traded Papelbon without paying for some of his salary then they may save more money. But as a fan I don’t care how much he is getting paid, I just want the best set of relievers on the team. Now the question is, will Papelbon be able to be as good next year?

     
    • Posts: 0 Jonathan Nisula

      In an ideal world, the Papelbon and Giles can coexist at the closer spot. Papelbon can’t pitch every day, so on the days he can’t, Giles fills in and vice versa. I just don’t think Papelbon would go for that, and I’m not so sure he can keep pitching at this level, either.

       
  • Posts: 0 PaMikeyDC

    Hoping that KG can keep this up for a few years. Has to be tough on the arm.

    And why no love for the hair stylist in AAA? He’s been pretty nasty in AAA. my guess is there’s no room for him in the Pen. Which is a very good thing actually.

     
  • Posts: 0 Carmen Rizzo

    Who is the hairdresser in AAA?

     
  • Posts: 0 CK12380

    There is only one reason that Papelbon doesnt want to be a set-up man or a “Non” Closer, as he was so animate about at the trade deadline. His contract RAJ famous Vesting Option is based on Games Finished. The best way for him to close enough games for his option to vest is to be a closer. Id want to be a closer too if there was $12M on the line. its this simple, Giles is going to be our closer, you have 2 choices Paps, you can pitch out of the bullpen in the 8th or whenever we call your number or we can send you to AAA and you can become a minor leaguer. Of course I have this thing that our GM does not and its brains. Our manager doesnt have the power to make that decision either, as we have already seen in the Howard as a platoon player (by Sandberg) turned back into everyday starter after RAJ made his remarks about 6 being the everyday first baseman this year and next. RAJ is pulling all the strings on the lineups, and probably everything else.

    My opinion, the only way Paps isnt the closer next year, is if RAJ is canned.

     
  • Posts: 0 Hogey's Role

    Yeah, time to start easing Giles into the closers role this year and let him take over next year, do not let papelbons option vest, that would be a 12 million dollar mistake on our part….. Papelbon doesn’t control this team so he doesn’t get to decide where he pitches in games, so too bad for you pap… Hopefully we can deal him over the winter months and he won’t be our problem anymore

     
 
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