Phillies Nation

The Phillies are getting absolutely nothing out of their outfield. In 183 at-bats, Phillies outfielders are batting .219 with five home runs.

Ben Revere hasn’t gotten off the ground, Laynce Nix and John Mayberry are doing pretty much what you’d expect in one outfield corner and Domonic Brown remains the wildly inconsistent, baseball version of Evan Turner.

The Phillies’ outfield is as unsettled as it was months ago when the offseason was just underway. Of these four players, Revere has the longest track record as a starter and that was one full season in Minnesota. So it is odd today — as it was months ago — that the Phillies so easily gave up on Nate Schierholtz.

Schierholtz is hitting .350 with eight extra-base hits for the Cubs, who are paying him a measly $2.25 million. The Phillies had a chance to offer him arbitration but instead non-tendered him at the end of November.

It was a curious move at the time. The Phils had no regular outfielders, had to know a platoon would be utilized in one corner, and yet still parted ways and got nothing for Schierholtz. This despite his well above-average defense, his .287 batting average vs. righties since 2011 and his overall superiority to Nix.

The Phils’ reasoning? Nix was under contract already for $1.35MM in 2013. High-priced outfielders were still on the market, and they were still “players” for guys like Angel Pagan, Cody Ross, etc.

But it’s not as if the Phils have never eaten the final year of a bad, unnecessary contract. They did it in Danys Baez’s second year. They did it in Adam Eaton’s third year. If you didn’t want both players on the 25-man roster, Nix could have been moved or cut. To keep him over Schierholtz just because Nix had a small guarantee … well, that’s the kind of move that has gotten the Phillies to this place. It’s poor talent evaluation. Had Schierholtz not gotten hurt after being traded to the Phils, they probably would have kept him. But instead his track record was dismissed, and Ruben Amaro chose to go with Nix, the guy who has some power but never walks, plays worse defense than Schierholtz and doesn’t put the ball in play as much.

It just made no sense, and it continues to make no sense as the Phillies’ outfield gives them nothing. This is a poorly assembled team. Schierholtz isn’t some sort of savior, but he has 2.5-WAR potential as a platoon outfielder getting 70% of at-bats in a given season.

This 6-10 record, this pathetic offense, these situational struggles, they just feel like the culmination of years of myopic moves and strict adherence to an organizational philosophy that doesn’t mesh with winning in this day and age. Schierholtz is yet another example.

Amaro expressed shock on Monday that the Phillies had gone three (now four) games without a walk.

Why is he shocked? This is the only organization in baseball that doesn’t employ an advanced stats department, and he’s the one who built the team.

It was a historic outing for Kyle Kendrick. It was an even more historic outing for Homer Bailey.

And they’ll both have to wait until Wednesday afternoon to see if it means anything for their team.

The Phillies and Reds will resume Tuesday’s game at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday, prior to the series finale. The game is scoreless and will begin in the bottom of the ninth with Zack Cozart, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips due up.

The teams had two hits apiece in a game that started 90 minutes late and had rain throughout.

For the first time in his career, Kendrick allowed no runs and two or fewer hits over at least seven innings. His final line was: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K. He induced 13 groundouts — two in every inning except the sixth. KK held Votto, Phillips and Jay Bruce hitless in seven at-bats, with four groundouts and three strikeouts.

Bailey was even better. He became the fifth pitcher in the history of baseball to strike out 10 batters and allow two or fewer hits in under 90 pitches. The last pitcher to do it was David Cone, in his perfect game in 1999. Jim Bunning did it, as well, in his 1964 perfecto.

The offense

Ben Revere continues to struggle mightily at the plate. He was 0-for-4 with his 10th strikeout of the season, putting him on pace for 115. Revere has 10 Ks in 63 plate appearances. His 10th strikeout last year came in his 174th plate appearance.

Revere just isn’t getting it done at the top of the order. He’s batting .207/.258/.207. His on-base percentage is 97 points lower than the National League average for leadoff batters.

Domonic Brown and Ryan Howard each came within feet of home runs on flyouts to the warning track.

The Phillies have scored in seven of their last 53 innings.

The offense has been absolutely pitiful after the third inning of games. In innings 4-9, the Phils are hitting .184/.241/.297. I don’t even know how that’s possible.

The Phillies announced their 25-man roster Saturday morning and it includes Rule 5  pick Ender Inciarte as the fifth outfielder, Phillippe Aumont as the final reliever and Humberto Quintero as the backup catcher.

Inciarte’s roster spot is tenuous, as the Phillies could choose to snag a more productive, proven fifth outfielder cut by another team before Sunday’s deadline to submit Opening Day rosters. Ryan Sweeney is one name to watch. He probably isn’t in the Red Sox’s plans. Casper Wells of Seattle is another.

Aumont makes the team over Mike Stutes, who did very little this spring and will go back to the minors to regain his form following shoulder surgery last season.

Quintero gets the backup catcher nod over Steven Lerud, who was reassigned to the minors along with Pete Orr and pitcher Zach Miner.

Delmon Young was placed on the DL retroactive to March 22. He likely won’t be ready until the end of April.

Here is a look at the full 25-man roster …

Starters: Revere, Rollins, Utley, Howard, M. Young, Brown, Mayberry, Kratz

Pitchers: Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Kendrick, Lannan, Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo, Durbin, Aumont, Horst, Valdes

Bench: Nix, Galvis, Frandsen, Quintero, Inciarte

Darin Ruf is hitting .130 this spring and seemingly every time he comes to the plate, he faces an 0-2 or 1-2 count. The man we had such high expectations for has fallen out of favor because of his inability to hit through 10 games, but more so because of his poor defense in left field. Ruben Amaro admitted Wednesday that Ruf will need to improve to make the team.

I joined Rhea Hughes this morning on CSNPhilly.com’s “Lunch Break” to discuss Ruf’s diminishing chances of making the team. We also looked at the most optimal Phillies lineups (Chase Utley batting second) and argued that the Phillies shouldn’t have let Ryan Howard play in the WBC even if he was selected.

Oh, and we delved into the Phillies National Female Co-host Search, as well.

The Phillies added some depth to their spring roster by signing veteran right-handed reliever Juan Cruz to a minor-league contract, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Championship.

Cruz, 34, had a 2.78 ERA last year but was wild and when he refused to accept a demotion to Triple-A, the Pirates released him.

He’s pitched for seven teams in 12 years. He has a 4.05 career ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and has struck out four more batters than innings pitched. He has a mid-90s fastball, and also uses a cutter, slider and changeup.

Cruz’s best year was 2008 with the Diamondbacks, when he pitched to a 2.61 ERA in 51.2 innings, with 71 strikeouts.

He’s also made 10 postseason appearances and finished two games. When the Phillies were swept in the 2007 NLDS by the Rockies, Cruz — pitching for Arizona — held Colorado hitless with eight strikeouts in four appearances in the next round.

The only other notable thing to add is that Cruz was part of the package the Athletics sent to the Braves in December 2004 for Tim Hudson. It was Cruz, reliever Dan Meyer and outfield Charles Thomas for Hudson. Thomas had upside but never realized it.

Really points out how long Hudson has been with the Braves. Can you believe he’s made 50 more appearances for Atlanta than Oakland?

Mike Adams’ third-year option with the Phillies can be voided if he suffers an elbow or shoulder injury in 2014 that prevents him from starting the 2015 season, according to the Inquirer.

Adams is set to earn $12 million over two seasons from the Phillies. If he makes 65 appearances in 2014 — as he’s done just twice in eight seasons — his $6 million option for 2015 vests. If Adams combines for 120 appearances over 2013 and 2014, the 2015 salary increases to $6.5 million. It means that Adams’ deal can be worth up to $18.5 million over three years.

John Lannan, signed to a one-year, $2.5-million deal, can earn up to $5 million through incentives. Raises of $200,000 a pop kick in at 150, 160, 170, 180 and 190 innings. If Lannan eclipses 200 or 210 innings, he earns separate bonuses of $250,000. He also would earn a quarter of a million dollars for each start from 31-34. If Lannan makes 34 starts and pitches 210 innings, he’d reach the full value of his contract and earn $5 million. His career-highs in starts is 33 (reached twice) and innings is 206 1/3.

Luxury tax calculations aren’t made until the end of the season, once player bonuses are taken into account, and Lannan’s effectiveness will impact the Phils’ payroll. Though if he reaches the full value of his deal, it will mean that he averaged more than six innings per start and didn’t miss any time with injury, in which case the Phillies will be glad to pay out the extra $2.5 million.

Raise your hand if you thought Ruben Amaro‘s first big move of the offseason would be trading for Ben Revere.

Over at CSNPhilly.com, Jim Salisbury and I did a 20-man series on Phillies offseason targets and he wasn’t on the list. ‘Tis the beauty of the winter meetings.

Let’s break this Revere trade down bit-by-bit, because there are so many components to it.

Did the Phillies give up too much? Did they get enough? Where does Revere hit? How do they replace Vance Worley? What is the next move? Does this open the door for a Josh Hamilton signing? (Yes, and I’ll explain why…)

But before getting to those questions…

Ben Revere hit .294 with 40 steals last season for the Twins.

Who is Ben Revere?

He’s a 24-year-old outfielder who spent most of last season in right field for the Twins, but is unquestionably fast enough to handle everyday CF duty. He’s played over 1,100 innings in center and is regarded as a very good defender with an incredibly weak, Juan Pierre-like arm.

He hit .294/.333/.342 last season with 40 steals in 49 attempts. He has no home runs in 1,064 plate appearances at the major-league level, and he barely hits any doubles.

Last season, 66.9% of Revere’s balls in play were ground balls. Not only did that lead the majors easily, it was the highest groundball rate any qualifying player has posted since 2002, when the data first became available. This is a good thing … speedsters should be putting the ball on the ground and trying to leg out singles. Revere led the AL in 2012 with 32 infield hits and finished third in baseball with nine bunt singles.

At 24, he probably hasn’t yet hit his ceiling, so it is pretty silly to see some outlets analyzing the trade from the standpoint of “this is who Revere is, and he will never be better.” The Phillies are hoping Revere turns into the next Michael Bourn. Revere over the next handful of years will probably cost less than Bourn does in 2013 alone. Continue reading Revere the First Step to a Successful Offseason?

Michael Young hit .277/.312/.370 last season for the Rangers.

Apparently so, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

A trio of sources tell Grant that the teams are in “advanced talks” on a deal that would send a young, major-league reliever and a low-level prospect to Texas for the 36-year-old Young.

Grant reports that Texas would likely pick up “more than half” of Young’s $16 million salary for 2013 in the deal. They better pick up more than “more than half” … Young was 125th out of 143 qualifying players last year with a measly .682 OPS.

This would “solve” the third base problem, but who knows how much Young actually has left. He played 2012 in an extreme hitter’s park surrounded by offensive talent and didn’t produce a lick. The Rangers batted him everywhere — 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th — and nothing. He had 27 doubles and 26 GIDPs. He had a .291 OBP against righties.

Then again, if all the Phillies would be giving up is a non-prospect and an expendable reliever, it’s probably worth it to see if Young can recapture a morsel of what he had in 2011, when he hit .338/.380/.474. Or even what he had the eight prior seasons, when he hit .308 with a .814 OPS.

Young has complete no-trade rights because he’s a 10-year veteran who has spent at least the last five seasons with one team. But that shouldn’t be an issue … his playing time is sure to decrease in Texas as Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt get closer to everyday duty.

Stay tuned, we’ll have more in the morning…

The Phillies are in serious talks with the Houston Astros and may be on the verge of trading for 29-year-old righthanded reliever Wilton Lopez, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

If the Phils pull this off, it would be a great, under-the-radar trade. Many baseball fans haven’t heard of Lopez because he’s been trapped under the weight of the 100-loss Astros, but he’s actually been one of the game’s more reliable late relievers in recent seasons.

Since 2010, Lopez has a 2.64 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’s walked just 31 batters in 204.1 innings, and his strikeout rate has increased in each of the last three seasons. He’s in his prime at 29, and would come very cheap. He made just $515,000 last season and figures to make between $1-1.5 million in 2013.

This news comes a day after Ryan Madson agreed to a deal with the Angels and Jonathan Broxton re-upped with the Reds for three years and more than $20 million. For a team so close to the luxury tax, it makes sense for the Phillies to pursue a trade for a reliever than pay $8 million per year for one.

It will be interesting to see what the Phillies give up if they acquire Lopez. Last year at this time, the Astros fleeced the Red Sox by selling high on reliever Mark Melancon to acquire shortstop Jed Lowrie and pitcher Kyle Weiland.

UPDATE: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the deal is agreed upon. But there is no word that Lopez, who is reportedly in Philadelphia, has passed his physical. Stay tuned.

UPDATE (3:30 p.m.): Salisbury reports that the two sides are exchanging physicals and that the Phillies will trade “two players who have played in the upper levels of the minors if the deal is finalized.”

(More coming…)

My offseason plan looks different than Pat’s and Eric’s. They each outlined under-the-radar solutions to the Phillies’ problems, moves that could make the team younger and not put the Phils over the luxury tax.

Despite his deficiencies, B.J. Upton is worth a five-year deal for the Phillies.

I took a different approach. The Phillies need to improve, and I’m more concerned with upgrading the offense and bullpen than I am with getting the most bang for the buck. I see Eric’s points about what Peter Bourjos adds, but I don’t think he’s a big enough offensive upgrade. I agree that Ryan Theriot is a serviceable platoon option at third base, but he’s not much more than that and he’s very similar to Kevin Frandsen.

Here is my offseason wishlist:

B.J. Upton – five years, $78 million
Even if the elder Upton doesn’t realize his potential and has five more seasons like his previous five, he’ll be worth this type of contract. It may seem like a ton, but it’s what you pay in today’s world for a power-hitting, defensively sound everyday centerfielder.

I know about Upton’s deficiencies, his .298 OBP last season, his average of 162 strikeouts per season since 2009. But I care more about the 28 home runs he hit last season at a park that suppresses homers, the 40 steals he’s averaged over the last five years. Continue reading Phillies Offseason Plan: Corey’s Version