Phillies Nation

From 2007-10, the Phillies had a .573 overall winning percentage despite going 100-101 in eight combined Aprils and Junes. Last season, they sprinted out of the gate and neither month was a problem.

Based on the way the 2012 schedule is set up, it is imperative that the Phils start strong — perhaps even stronger than last season’s 57-34 first-half record — and avoid the familiar April malaise and June swoon.

The post-All-Star break schedule is grueling.

To start the season’s unofficial second half, the Phils play 41 consecutive games and 53 of the first 56 against teams figuring to be in contention.

Included in that stretch are nine games with the Braves and six with the Nationals and Marlins. In fact, 33 of the Phils’ 54 meetings with Atlanta, Washington and Miami come after the break.

Building a comfortable NL East lead over the season’s first three months won’t be as easy as it would have been with Ryan Howard in the lineup. Despite his well-documented inefficiencies, Howard is still capable of carrying an offense for two weeks in a way that Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix are not.

With Howard out of the lineup until perhaps mid-to-late May, Wigginton and Nix will be much more than just role players.

Continue reading With Schedule, Howard Fill-ins Must Succeed Early

The Phillies' Tuesday signing of Chad Qualls shows that not every cheap deal is a good deal.

Ordinarily, complaints about a one-year, $1.15 million deal would be silly. But when you consider how Chad Qualls’ presence will affect the short-term growth of Michael Stutes, Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus, the Phillies’ Tuesday signing of the 33-year-old journeyman reliever carries with it as many negatives as positives.

At some point, you need to see what the young guys have.

The Phillies did that with Stutes in 2011 out of necessity, and only because he immediately succeeded did they continue to put him in high leverage situations. The (good) problem with having such lofty team expectations is that you cannot give young players on-the-job training. If the Phillies were the Pirates, or even a team like the Reds, Domonic Brown would probably be working through his troubles at the major-league level.

The same goes for the Phils’ young crop of relievers, which doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A.

Continue reading Qualls Signing Will Stunt Growth of Young RPs

A team that has stripped significant young talent four times since July 2009, the Phillies still have a handful of desirable prospects. According to MLB.com’s draft and prospect expert Jonathan Mayo, the Phils currently have baseball’s ninth-best lefthanded pitching prospect and catching prospect.

Hometown boy Jesse Biddle of Germantown Friends was the Phils’ lone pitching representative on Mayo’s list. The 6-foot-4 lefty struck out 124 batters in 133 innings last season at Lakewood, serving up just five home runs en route to a 2.98 ERA. Referring to his mid-90s fastball, mid-80s changeup and low-70s curveball, Mayo describes Biddle as “having a chance to have three above average-to-plus pitches when all is said and done.”

Baseball America ranks Biddle the Phils’ No. 2 prospect behind righthanded pitcher Trevor May, who struck out 208 batters in 151 innings last season at Clearwater. May didn’t crack Mayo’s list for righties.

Catcher Sebastian Valle also checked in at No. 9 overall on Mayo’s list for his respective position.

Mayo says, of Valle: “[He] has good bat speed and should grow into more power, especially if he can learn better plate discipline. He’s very agile behind the plate and throws well, giving him all the skills to be an excellent all-around catcher in the future.”

The Phils are likely thrilled to still have a catching prospect as highly regarded as Valle, as they traded the No. 3 catcher on Mayo’s list just two winters ago. Though no matter how successful a major leaguer Travis d’Arnaud becomes … Roy Halladay is Roy Halladay.

With Ryan Madson in Cincinnati, Francisco Cordero remains the only healthy, available closer in a market that opened the winter with 13 savers looking for 15 jobs.

The 36-year-old Cordero manned the ninth for the Reds from 2008-11, saving 38 games per season with a 2.96 ERA. His WHIP with Cincy was a mediocre 1.30 and his ratio of strikeouts-per-nine (7.6) to walks-per-nine (4.1) wasn’t close to the level of a Madson or Jonathan Papelbon, but Cordero is a solid short-term reliever who could get a look from the Phillies, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.

The Phils are looking around for relief help to supplement the setup trio of Antonio Bastardo (late-season struggles), Mike Stutes (youth) and Jose Contreras (health issues). They were unable to lure Madson back on a one-year deal and it appears that Kerry Wood, who the Phils were also eyeing, is headed back to the Cubs.

On a one-year deal, Cordero would add stability to the eighth inning, put less pressure on Bastardo and Stutes and allow Contreras to ease his way back. The last full season in which Cordero wasn’t a primary closer was 2003, but at 36 with so few suitors, he may have to take a setup role.

Heyman’s tweet was pure speculation and the Phils haven’t otherwise been directly linked to Cordero, but the fit is natural. One hindrance to signing Cordero would be his financial desires. The bigger problem would be the willingness of a team like the Angels or Cardinals to offer Cordero at least the hope of closing. Whereas the Phillies are locked in to Papelbon in the ninth, the Angels have a young incumbent in Jordan Walden who could struggle and give way to Cordero, and the Cardinals, too, have inexperienced options.

If you were Cordero, would you take the job where you know you won’t close, or the one that offers a chance?

Keeping that in mind, the only way the Phils can make a legitimate run at Cordero would be to offer more than other teams are offering on a one-year deal. But we’d imagine it would have to be a considerable amount more, since the opportunity of closing offers Cordero more future dollars than would setting up for the Phillies.

Earlier in the off-season, Matt Capps signed a one-year, $4.75 million deal with the Twins and Frank Francisco signed in Flushing for two years and $12 million. Cordero’s annual average salary figures to be in that vicinity, somewhere between $5.5-$6.5 million. For it to make sense for Cordero to forego the opportunity to close, the Phils might have to offer something like $8 million for one year, which, from many indications, is too much given the team’s proximity to the luxury tax threshold.

So while the idea of Cordero setting up for Papelbon makes sense, it doesn’t when you take into account what Cordero is likely seeking.

In a move that increases the Nationals’ odds of signing Prince Fielder — thereby decreasing the Phillies’ chances of winning the NL East so comfortably next season – the Padres on Friday traded mega-prospect first baseman Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs for righthanded fireballer Andrew Cashner and slap-hitting 19-year-old South Korean outfielder Kyung-Min Na.

The Cubs were believed to be in the running for Fielder, but Theo Epstein’s acquisition of Rizzo gives Scott Boras one fewer team to use as leverage. Boras recently met with the Nationals’ brass in Washington D.C. about Fielder, and according to multiple sources, the strong contenders for Fielder prior to the Rizzo trade were the Nats, Cubs, Mariners and Rangers. Removing one team from the equation could significantly change the terms of a Fielder deal and the aggressiveness of the still-interested parties.

Fielder would be an obvious boost to the Nationals, who could threaten in the NL East even without him in 2012. Fielder the last three years has been worth just over five wins above replacement, and the man he’d be replacing, Adam LaRoche, was worse than replacement-level in 2011. The trio of LaRoche, Chris Marrero and Matt Stairs were worth 1.5 wins below replacement last season, with Mike Morse getting the lion’s share of work at first base. If Fielder signs, Morse would move to a corner outfield spot, and if Morse maintains his offensive dominance from 2011 the Nationals would figure to net five-to-seven wins.

Fielder would be a large-scale addition on par with the Phillies’ signing of Cliff Lee last winter. It would be a move that could redirect the course of the National League East over the next handful of seasons.

What removes the Cubs from the Fielder sweepstakes is Rizzo’s big-league readiness – in 2011 he hit .331/.404/.652 with 26 homers and 101 RBIs in just 413 plate appearances for Triple-A Tucson. He struggled mightily for the Padres, hitting .141 with one home run in 153 plate appearances, and some have questioned whether or not his bat speed can play at the major league level.

But keep in mind that San Diego’s PETCO Park is death to lefthanded batters. According to StatCorner.com, lefties hit home runs with 41 percent less frequency at PETCO than everywhere else. At Wrigley Field, lefties hit home runs 19 percent more than the league-average park, making for a 60 percent swing in park factor for the power-hitting first baseman.

Bell and Reyes will make things interesting in the NL East. (Photo: Bocaratontribune.com)

Since Sept. 27, the Marlins have signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and Aaron Rowand, traded for Carlos Zambrano and re-signed Omar Infante and Greg Dobbs.

The Nationals have traded for Gio Gonzalez, signed Mark DeRosa and Mike Cameron and re-signed Chien-Ming Wang.

The Braves have made one major league move – on Halloween morning they exercised Eric Hinske’s $1.5 million option.

Exciting, right?

The Marlins are building for right now and, while it is trendy to say things like “those Nationals could contend in a few years,” the truth is that Washington is just as prepared for 2012 as it is for the Bryce Harper era.

What impact will the improvements in Miami and D.C. have on the rest of the division?

Continue reading NL East Shaping Up As Baseball’s Best Division

Few fits are as natural as Carlos Zambrano playing in Miami for fellow Venezuelan Ozzie Guillen. The connection was made in early October when the two spoke over the phone about Zambrano potentially joining the Marlins, and Guillen and Big Z got their wish Wednesday when the Marlins and Cubs agreed to swap Zambrano and Chris Volstad. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the sides were close and Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago later confirmed an agreement had been reached.

In Zambrano, the Marlins obtain a decent, 31-year-old mid-rotation righthander. Injuries, run-ins with Cubs management and a 2010 switch to the bullpen have prevented Zambrano from reaching 170 innings more than once since 2007, but he’ll improve Miami’s rotation even if he fails to reach that mark in 2012.

Zambrano replaces Volstad, the definition of a replacement-level starter. Since 2009, only three starting pitchers to amass 400 innings have been worth fewer wins above replacement – the all-encompassing stat that uses controllable peripheral numbers to compare a player to a fungible, 4-A replacement player – than Volstad. (Those pitchers: Bronson Arroyo, Jon Garland and Kevin Correia.)

Continue reading Marlins Acquire Carlos Zambrano

On Thursday we outlined Ryan Madson’s limited options in the wake of Boston’s trade for Andrew Bailey. The conclusion drawn was that Madson’s best opportunity to land a multi-year deal would be with the Reds, the only team known to be still in the hunt for a closer.

But John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported Friday afternoon that the Reds haven’t even spoken with Madson’s people, and that the team prefers to bring back Francisco Cordero on a one-year deal. Cordero turned down a two-year offer from Cincy earlier this off-season, which Fay conjectures was worth approximately $14 million in total. Reds GM Walt Jocketty’s hope is to sign a closer to a cheap deal, saving money for a hitter.

Just about every bit of information in the Fay piece suggests that the Reds, like the Red Sox before them, aren’t interested in Madson.

Well, that’s an incomplete assessment. The Red Sox were, in fact, interested in Madson. But, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, it became apparent to Boston that Scott Boras was not backing off his demands for Madson, and the Red Sox could no longer wait to make a move on Andrew Bailey with the Rangers looming.

Continue reading Reds Haven’t Spoken With Madson

Four of five rotation spots are set for the Phillies heading into 2012 — it’s hard to envision Vance Worley being asked to do anything but pick up from where he left off.

Joe Blanton, however, has a small chance of losing his starting job to Kyle Kendrick or one of the many depth-starters the Phillies signed this off-season.

It is unlikely, but if Blanton shows up to Spring Training out of shape or still feeling pain in his elbow, he could quickly become an unusable and untradeable asset.

Ricky Bottalico touched on this subject Tuesday on Comcast SportsNet’s “Phillies Hot Stove.”

“[Blanton’s] gotta come in there, prove that he’s healthy, make sure he’s coming into Spring Training at 100 percent,” Bottalico said. “If he does not do that, I think there could be problems for the Phillies. You’re basically in a situation where you may have to eat $8 million.”

Continue reading Can Blanton Bounce Back in 2012?

The connection of Jorge Posada to the Phillies was difficult to understand when first reported (literally), but that doesn’t necessarily make it false. There would be room for suspicion had Posada’s agent listed teams interested in his client, but information from the ESPN Deportes story was obtained from Posada’s father.

Though no matter where the info was gathered or how much interest Ruben Amaro has expressed in Posada’s services, this would be a questionable fit.

Posada, at 40, can no longer catch – he was behind the plate for six innings last season. Posada would be relegated to a pinch-hitting role on a bench filled with older, slower, poor fielding players. The Phils already have an experienced hitter with no true position in Jim Thome. No team can afford to spend two bench spots on players too old and worn down to field, no matter their offensive prowess.

Posada, a switch-hitter, has hit .265 with an .841 OPS against righthanded pitching since 2009, but Thome and Laynce Nix were brought in, in part, to come off the bench to face righties.

The only way a Posada signing would make sense for the Phils is if they thought he could still catch, in which case he’d be a clear offensive upgrade from Brian Schneider. But as pointed out at Brotherly Glove, the Phils could have signed Posada or Jason Varitek months ago when they chose to bring Schneider back on a cheap, one-year deal. If the interest in Posada was derived from the thought that he could catch, the Phils certainly would have taken more time deciding on a backup catcher.