Hamels pitched eight shutout innings as the Phillies won, 4-1, in the final game of a three-game home series with Washington. The Phils will now travel to St. Louis for four games.

Some observations from Wednesday’s game:

- The Phillies have won two games against the Nationals since last August 20, and both of them have been gems pitched by Hamels. He beat the Nats on May 6 in a game remembered more for his plunking of Bryce Harper than his eight innings of one-run baseball.

- Hamels is obviously very, very good. He carried a no-hitter into the sixth and looked absolutely dominant in all but one inning.

- Hamels leads the majors with seven wins.

- Carlos Ruiz had three hits in his first-ever appearance in the four-hole. So it doesn’t look like his spot in the batting order will affect a swing that refuses to go cold.

- In the last four or five days, Shane Victorino has looked the best he has all season. He homered and doubled to drive in two on Wednesday and is now batting .267/.330/.439.

- The Phillies bunt a lot and run a lot. Maybe it’ll end up being a positive. Maybe it won’t net them anything. Wednesday’s suicide squeeze was exciting, as Juan Pierre sacrificed in Mike Fontenot from third base. But Pierre was also easily out at first base earlier in the game retreating after a hit-and-run resulted in a shallow flyout. That’s the danger of playing too much small ball.

- Jonathan Papelbon is filthy. The Phillies shouldn’t have committed that much to a closer, but if you’re going to, this was the guy. His fastball and splitter can disappear in any count to seemingly any batter.

- It’s pretty amazing that the Phillies have ONE complete game this season, and it was from Blanton.

(AP)

It could have been their ninth straight win over the Braves. It could have been their first three-game winning streak of the season. It could have been Roy Halladay’s 108th win without a loss when pitching with a four-run lead.

It could have been a victory that put the Phillies over .500 for the first time since the first game of the season, and it could have moved them to within one game of the Braves for second place in the NL East.

But instead, the Phillies blew a six-run lead with Halladay on the mound, came back on Carlos Ruiz’s indescribably satisfying bat-flip three-run homer, melted down behind Jose Contreras and Michael Schwimer, tied the game in the ninth off Craig Kimbrel, but eventually lost on Chipper Jones’ walkoff two-run bomb in the eleventh. (See Ian Riccaboni’s full recap below.)

It was a hard loss to take, sure. But I don’t know… for some reason this didn’t hurt as bad as it should have.

Maybe because it felt kind of historic. Ruiz set the single-game franchise record for RBI by a catcher. Halladay was yanked in the middle of an inning for only the second time since June 2008. It sucked to blow numerous opportunities, for a team built on pitching to blow two leads of four or more runs. It sucked to watch a usually anemic offense score 13 runs and lose.

But really, if you’re a fan of baseball, you loved this game. Chipper narrowly missing a walkoff homer and then coming back a few pitches later to seal the deal. It wasn’t a walkoff, but I remember when Jimmy Rollins did the same thing in 2007. It’s cool, and you had to expect it with Brian Sanches in his third inning on the mound.

There are certainly things for fans to be upset over. Bullpen usage was not one of them. Chad Qualls was unavailable after pitching three times in four days. If you bring Jonathan Papelbon in for Sanches in one of those innings, you’re down to just Kyle Kendrick.

Sure, Papelbon gives you a better chance of prolonging the game, but pitching Kendrick or even Joe Blanton there changes the next few days. And as much as I hate when people say, “It’s only [insert month],” it really makes little sense to redirect the course of the next few games when it could or could just as easily not mean an extra-inning win on May 2.

I’m a die-hard Phillies fan who refuses to hide that fact even as I attempt to make a professional career out of this. But I’m a die-harder baseball fan, if that makes any sense, and Wednesday night’s game was tremendous theater for anyone who loves this game.

Twenty-eight runs on 36 hits in a game billed as a pitcher’s duel? Eight half-innings of multiple runs? A game-tying grand slam off the era’s most dominant pitcher? A game-tying infield single off one of the game’s most dominant closers? Perhaps the last walkoff home run of Chipper Jones’ career?

If I told you that you could watch all of that on a Wednesday night in exchange for a Phillies loss, I think you’d take it.

Or maybe you’re a bigger fan of the team and the city than the sport. There’s nothing wrong with that.

I’d personally just give up one game in the standings for 11 innings I’ll always remember.

- Vance Worley struck out a career-high 11 and allowed seven baserunners in seven innings as the Phillies won, 2-0. He struggled with command to the first three batters of the game then threw his two-seam fastball anywhere he wanted against an overmatched Padres lineup.

Worley is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 21 Ks in 19 innings.

- The Phils scored a first inning run when Juan Pierre took an extra base after walking. Placido Polanco hit a line drive to left field and when Will Venable bobbled the ball, Pierre reacted quickly enough to slide safely into third. Jimmy Rollins followed with a sacrifice fly. The second run scored on a passed ball in the ninth inning.

- The win was the Phillies 12th in a row at PETCO Park, where they are 13-1 since 2008. The Phillies are 22-7 against the Padres overall in that span.

- Worley said to Gregg Murphy on CSN after the game, “It was good to get that win after what Cliff [Lee] did last night. That was ridiculous, I’ve never seen anyone do that.”

- No offensive issues were rectified in this game. The Phils went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded six.

- John Mayberry has overtaken Polanco as the Phillie struggling most. He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and since Opening Day has nine strikeouts, eight groundouts, seven popouts and four flyouts to go with four singles. (h/t: David Hale (@DavidHaleTNJ)

- Cole Hamels faces Edinson Volquez Friday night at PETCO Park at 10:05 p.m. on Comcast SportsNet. Hamels in his last start struck out 10 Mets — three on fastballs, three on changeups, two on cutters and two on curveballs. He had everything working last Sunday, in case you were busy watching the wild instant classic in Game 3 between the Flyers and Penguins.

Placido Polanco is batting .179 this season.

The Phillies had a chance to win their second straight series at AT&T Park on Tuesday night, but that’ll have to wait 24 more hours. The Giants were victorious, 4-2, as Joe Blanton lost his second game of the season.

- The Phillies’ struggles with runners in scoring position reared their ugly head again. The Phils were 1-for-11 with RISP, delivering only one run in such situations despite having runners in scoring position in six different innings.

- Placido Polanco continues to look like he’s completely done. In the top of the fifth inning, Polanco came to the plate with Freddy Galvis on second base with two out. It was the kind of situation in which you used to feel confident in Polly. Now, not at all. He can’t drive the ball, he can’t make solid contact of any kind. Another 0-for-4 night dropped his average to .179, and he has just five line drives in 33 balls put into play. It’s gotten so bad for Polanco that he did his little “home run hop” on a fly ball to center field in his fourth at-bat. He’s so unused to good swings right now that he thought THAT was a real charge.

- John Mayberry hasn’t been much better than Polanco. The power we saw in 2011 is nowhere to be found, but it would be nearly impossible for Mayberry not to run into 8-10 homers as the season goes on. So at least with him, there’s a bit of room for optimism. His swing is just too long right now. When the Phillies loaded the bases with no outs in the sixth inning, Mayberry weakly popped out to first base on a fastball right down the middle. His head wasn’t on the ball.

- The Phillies stole two more bases Tuesday. They are 12-for-13 swiping bags.

- Madison Bumgarner was hittable and this game was winnable. These are the ones that frustrate you… not because the Phillies fell to 5-6, but because this looked like the kind of game they could lose in the playoffs. Starter gives up three or four runs, offense can’t capitalize on opportunities.

It’s a familiar formula. And it can happen easily when a team refuses to walk (they had one on Tuesday) and seldom produces extra-base hits.

Courtesy AP

The Phillies offense finally came to life Wednesday night in a 7-1 win over the Miami Marlins.

Here are some assorted notes on the win…

• Roy Halladay out-dueled Josh Johnson to even up their personal Phillies-Marlins series, 2-2. His other win over Johnson came in that little perfect game thing he threw on May 29, 2010.

• Freddy Galvis is now tied for the team-lead with four RBI.

• Hunter Pence just keeps on raking. He’s 7-for-19 (.368) with a team-high 11 total bases, and he continues to scald singles up the middle.

• Speaking of raking, how about Carlos Ruiz? He’s 6-for-13 on the season with a double and a homer, and was 23-for-48 in the spring. Add it all together and Chooch is 29-for-his-last-61 for a .475 batting average.

• How amazing is Halladay, seriously? He’s allowed one run in 15 innings this season. Last year, he allowed one run in his first 21 innings. The season prior, he allowed one run in his first 19 innings as a Phillie. Talk about hot starts…

• The Phillies’ big inning was due mostly to errors. An error by the second base umpire calling Juan Pierre safe, an error by Giancarlo Stanton, poor fielding in left by Logan Morrison. There was also the lucky bounce off Johnson’s leg that gave Placido Polanco an RBI single to start the rally. But whatever, a scuffling offense’ll take it.

• The Phillies have a major league-high eight stolen bases and haven’t been caught once. Only one other team in baseball (Toronto) has one steal without being caught.

• Johnson is just off right now. He’s allowed 21 hits in 9.2 innings after allowing just 18 hits in 41 innings last April. The pitcher the Phillies faced Wednesday is not the man that has stifled them with a hard, heavy sinker in years past. Have all of the injuries sapped a bit of his effectiveness?

The saga continues Thursday as Joe Blanton makes his first start of the season against Marlins lefty Mark Buehrle. Only five Phillies have ever faced Buehrle. Polanco is 14-for-35 (.400) lifetime against him, as the two faced off quite a bit in the AL Central.

Buehrle has never pitched at Citizens Bank Park.

Antonio Bastardo was a prime reason the Phillies blew so few saves in 2011.

The Phillies’ opening series at PNC Park drew up a very specific formula for the season.

The big strength was starting pitching — Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Vance Worley combined to produce this line: 20 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 14 K.

The big weakness was offense — the Phillies hit .204/.264/.255 with three extra-base hits.

The unit that blew Sunday’s series finale, however, was the bullpen. Say whatever you want about offense, when you allow seven baserunners over the final 2.2 innings, that is the root cause of a loss.

In Sunday’s game, the Phillies used Michael Stutes in the seventh inning (allowed two runs), Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo in the eighth inning of a one-run game (blown save) and David Herndon in the ninth, with the score tied 4-4.

This type of setup could be used in many games this season, especially those started by Worley or Joe Blanton. The Phillies right now don’t have a specific eighth-inning reliever. They don’t have a Mike Adams or a Ryan Madson of old.

They have an Antonio Bastardo who has lost velocity and may have to nibble more, leading to even worse control. They have Stutes, who is coming back from shoulder soreness in the spring and may have had his best success before the league knew what to expect from him. They have Kendrick, a career starter/long-man who has the exact skill set you don’t want coming out of the ‘pen late. They have Herndon, a groundballer who leaves too many pitches high in the zone and routinely allows early baserunners.

All of these pitchers could have good seasons. All of these pitchers could struggle mightily. No conclusions are being formed after three games, these are simple facts.

What it boils down to, however, what we saw first-hand in the three games at PNC Park, is that the Phillies will be playing in so many one-run games that the bullpen’s success or failure will determine the season. If the bullpen is as good as it was last season, the Phils can win 94-96 games. If it’s average or worse, they could win 88.

I don’t think many folks realize just how critical the bullpen was to the team’s 102 wins last season. The Phillies’ bullpen, as a unit, blew just three saves in the first 110 games of 2011. That’s not just ninth-inning blown saves, either. That’s blown saves in any inning.

It is unrealistic to expect that sort of effort this season. It’d mean the Phillies would allow the tying run(s) to score after the starter exits in just 1.9% of the next 107 games.

But this was the missing piece of the discussion when comparing last year’s team to this year’s. Yes, last season the Phillies were without Chase Utley until May 23, and the second base fill-ins combined to hit .211 with no home runs. Yes, last year’s team began the season without Hunter Pence.

But last year’s team also saw a mixture of solid bullpen work and incredible late-inning luck that doesn’t figure to carry over. Getting leads will be one hardship for this team. Maintaining them will be another.

Are the Tigers the best in baseball with Fielder and Cabrera?

With Opening Night minutes away and the first slate of games set for a glorious Thursday afternoon, now is a good time to rank the 30 offenses in major league baseball. This isn’t a formal ranking of teams, but a ranking of starting lineups.

There just seem to be many misconceptions out there about certain teams. People are praising the Rays and Angels as two of the top-five teams in baseball, ignoring the fact that both have relatively poor lineups. So without further ado…

30) Houston Astros

Carlos Lee is the only power bat and Jordan Schafer strikes out way too much to be a leadoff batter. There’s no way he lasts in that role all season. Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez could surprise some people, but overall this lineup is young and full of easy outs. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Jamie Moyer toy with it on Friday.

29) Oakland Athletics

Yoenis Cespedes certainly helps, but you know you have very little offense when Coco Crisp and Seth Smith are batting in prime run-producing spots. Both are nice players. But they aren’t No. 3 and 4 hitters.

28) Chicago White Sox

Eww. Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko batting third and fourth but a series of black holes elsewhere. Nobody else gets on base with any regularity. Not A.J. Pierzynski, or Alex Rios, or Alejandro De Aza, or Alexei Ramirez. Gonna be a rough year on the south side of the Chi.

27) Chicago Cubs

Just not much there. The Cubs are probably OK with not competing this season. The projected 1-2-3 of David DeJesus, Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro might hit 400 singles and make 1,200 outs. None of them walk. None of them are overly fast. Unless Alfonso Soriano and Bryan LaHair combine for 125 extra-base hits, this team will struggle mightily to score runs.

26) Pittsburgh Pirates

Andrew McCutchen is an incredible talent and the type of player all 30 teams covet, but he’s not a game-breaking offensive talent. He can hit doubles, steal bases and work the count but he doesn’t yet have 30-home run power and he is a lifetime .276 hitter. There simply isn’t enough protection around him. Neil Walker is productive but fits better as a fifth or sixth batter than a cleanup hitter. And the Pirates are again planning to give Garrett Jones close to 500 plate appearances. Jones’ power is overrated — 20 home runs over a full season isn’t as valuable as you may think, especially when it’s packaged it with a low batting average (.254 career) and OBP (.323).

25) San Diego Padres

Partly because of the ballpark, partly because of poor roster construction, the Padres have been nightmarish at the plate in recent years. This season they could take a step forward. Cameron Maybin finally came into his own last season and will lead off for San Diego. On-base machine Chase Headley is back and healthy, as is catcher Nick Hundley. Yonder Alonso is a top NL Rookie of the Year candidate who will bat fourth or fifth. Jesus Guzman has big-time power potential, even if he hasn’t realized it through his age-27 season.

24) Seattle Mariners

Like the Padres, the Mariners figure to be better with the sticks. A 2-through-5 of Dustin Ackley, Ichiro, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero has the chance to be very good. Montero is my AL Rookie of the Year pick. I could see him hitting .291/.385/.500 with 20-22 homers.

23) Baltimore Orioles

You can do worse than J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters in the heart of your order, but a 7-8-9 of Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis and Robert Andino will strike out far too much, leaving a lot of importance on leadoff batter Nolan Reimold to set the tone for the Orioles’ run producers.

22) Kansas City Royals

More teams need to lead off a hitter like Alex Gordon, who can hit, walk, hit for power and run a little bit. This isn’t 1975. Your leadoff batter doesn’t have to be a fast guy who gets on base 33 percent of the time.

KC can do some things at the plate this season. A 3-4-5 of Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas could prove to be fearsome for the next decade. But as of now, the Royals have too many lineup holes.

21) Cleveland Indians

Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana are all standouts, but like a lot of these teams in the lower half, there is little else in the lineup. If Grady Sizemore can return at some point and Travis Hafner can stay healthy, the Indians have a chance to be much more dynamic offensively. But those are two huge “ifs.”

20) Washington Nationals

Might be a surprising choice to appear this low, but the Nationals just don’t have enough OBP. Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa will likely bat first and second, and plate discipline is the worst quality of both. Desmond has a .304 career OBP. Espinosa is at .316. Yuck.

Ryan Zimmerman is obviously a stud, but he’s missed an average of 36 games the last three seasons. Jayson Werth has to be better than he was last year, but there is no guarantee Mike Morse will be as good. Morse is starting the season on the DL, by the way. The Nats improved their pitching, but all that means is that they might lose more one-run games.

19) New York Mets

Mets ahead of the Nats just because David Wright should go back to being a 25-30 home run hitter in the shortened dimensions of Citi Field, Ike Davis has Mark Grace-like potential (.300 BA, .385 OBP) and I have faith in Ruben Tejada growing into a productive middle infielder. Tejada is Freddy Galvis with a better batting eye.

18) Minnesota Twins

It all depends on Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but I have a feeling Mauer reverts to his .320/.400/.470 form. Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit give M&M protection. Speed is a big issue and the 7-8-9 is ugly. But this just feels like a team that will vastly improve upon 2011′s offense. Leadoff batter Denard Span should be back and ready to go, too.

17) Los Angeles Dodgers

Shaping up to be another year of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and nothing else. I expect the Dodgers to be better than they were last year, but you can’t succeed with two hitters and a bunch of less-than-league-average re-treads like Juan Rivera, James Loney and A.J. Ellis. Dee Gordon won’t be able to steal first.

16) San Francisco Giants

Lineup will be better. Angel Pagan is a legitimate upgrade from Andres Torres from a speed, contact, discipline and power standpoint. Buster Posey is back. Pablo Sandoval is back to being a .300 hitter. Melky Cabrera didn’t fluke his way to 44 doubles and a .305 batting average last season. Better offense but still not top-tier. Though I do expect the Giants to win the NL West by more than five games.

15) Los Angeles Angels

The Angels having “one of the best lineups in baseball” is such a ridiculous misconception. Has anyone who has said that actually looked at the team? Yes, they signed Albert Pujols, but they have less protection for him than the Cardinals ever did. Outside of Pujols, nobody in this lineup has big-time power. Mark Trumbo hit 29 homers as a rookie last season but how many games will he actually play in 2012? He was converted to third base, where he had a horrible spring with the glove. Kendrys Morales had a big offensive year before getting hurt, but again, how much can you realistically expect from him after badly breaking his ankle?

Howard Kendrick can hit. Alberto Callaspo is a good hitter for a utility infielder. Chris Iannetta can get on base. But that’s it. Nothing else. The Cardinals lost Pujols and somehow ended up with a better lineup than the Angels.

***14) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES***

Middle of the pack. A lot depends on Juan Pierre, which nobody thought when the Phillies signed him to a minor-league deal on a quiet Friday at the end of January. Bad feeling about Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix. Slightly less bad feeling about John Mayberry. Good feeling about Shane Victorino having a big offensive season. Good feeling about Hunter Pence being Hunter Pence and nothing more or less. No idea what to expect from Jimmy. Predicting Polanco hits .294.

The offense won’t be as bad without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley as you might think, but there are just a lot of teams with better lineups.

13) Tampa Bay Rays

I guess because they have young talent, are exciting and had a wild finish to the 2011 season, people thought it was no issue overrating them heading into 2012. But do you realize that the Rays have a projected 5-through-9 of Matt Joyce, Luke Scott, Jeff Keppinger, Sean Rodriguez and Jose Molina? The only reason I have the Rays ahead of the Phillies is because Evan Longoria is a game-breaker and Desmond Jennings has a chance to hit like Victorino.

12) Atlanta Braves

Go ahead and write off Jason Heyward. Let’s just ignore that he had a chronic shoulder problem last  season, tried to play through it, saw the condition worsen and had a bad year at the plate.

My only concern with Atlanta’s offense is that it centers around Brian McCann, and you never want to base your lineup around a catcher. They break down. Power gets sapped as the year goes on. McCann the last three seasons has hit .236 with a .750 OPS in August and September.

11) Colorado Rockies

Top-heavy, like many other teams, but I’ll take the top-heavy team that has Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Michael Cuddyer moves  from the worst hitter’s park to one of the best. Todd Helton could slow down to a crawl and still kill the Phillies and get on base 38-40% of the time.

10) Arizona Diamondbacks

The D’backs are going to take a step back this year. I’m only ranking them so high because Chase Field is a bandbox and Paul Goldschmidt could hit 40 home runs. Jason Kubel is an upgrade in left field. Justin Upton has more measurable talent than the entire Astros team. Willie Bloomquist and Aaron Hill suck as 1-2 batters. The Diamondbacks could probably be lower. I’m 1,700 words in and am too lazy to move them.

9) Cincinnati Reds

These final nine teams could be ordered in many ways. I’m going with the Reds here because I just don’t trust Scott Rolen and am not as high on Jay Bruce as some people are. Joey Votto is a stud. And I don’t have a huge problem with that 10-year, $225 million contract, because the Reds are never going to lure a top free agent to Cincy. So why not lock up the best player the franchise has had in quite some time?

8) Toronto Blue Jays

Predicted record: 86-76, third place in the AL East, one game ahead of the Rays. GM Alex Anthopoulos has stolen Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus the past two seasons. If both finally put it all together in 2012, Toronto can be a top-3 offense. Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia are going to combine for 75 home runs even if they do nothing else. Jose Bautista is going to finish with an on-base percentage over .400 and hit 42-47 homers. Brett Lawrie is going to struggle defensively at third base but nobody is going to care because he’ll hit .285/.370/.500 with 27 home runs.

7) Miami Marlins

It literally all depends on Jose Reyes. If he misses 40 games, like he’s averaged since 2009, it’s a powerful offense that won’t get on base enough to be in the top 5-7. Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton are going to have monster years but still do nothing against the Phillies’ three aces.

6) Milwaukee Brewers

Like the Cardinals, the Brewers lost their superstar first baseman but will still remain competitive offensively. Aramis Ramirez is almost a carbon copy of Victor Martinez. Think about the Tigers offense with Miguel Cabrera and Martinez last year. That’s what the Brewers will be with Ryan Braun and Ramirez. Plus there’s Rickie Weeks and a full season from Corey Hart. The Brew Crew won’t struggle to score.

5) St. Louis Cardinals

I’ve already mentioned how much I like the Cards’ offense. They lost Pujols to Anaheim and still have a better lineup than the Angels. Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman are an OBP nightmare, and all three could hit 25 home runs. Jon Jay is a dangerous hitter at the bottom of the lineup. Yadier Molina alternates between very good and mediocre offensive seasons. David Freese won’t be a star in this league but he’ll hit .280 with 23 home runs.

4) New York Yankees

Not on the level of the top-three, but still an offense you don’t want to face. Jeter-Granderson-Cano-A-Rod-Teixeira. Not only is that incredibly difficult to maneuver through, but it’s R-L-L-R-S.

3) Texas Rangers

Once you get down to these three, any choice is the right one. Texas has the most power, top-to-bottom, of the final three, but also has the most injury concerns with Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz always missing time. I expect less from Mike Napoli but more from Ian Kinsler. Those Rangers-Angels games are going to be great. LA’s stellar pitching and Texas’ near-unstoppable offense. Hot diggity.

2) Boston Red Sox

A 7-8-9 of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Cody Ross and Mike Aviles isn’t top-five worthy, but Boston’s first five batters are Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. If Carl Crawford is even 85% of the player he was in Tampa Bay, the Red Sox could win 97 games.

1) Detroit Tigers

Boston, Texas, and the Yankees are more complete 1-through-9, but I have no idea how a pitcher is going to convince himself to pitch around both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder and not have a subsequent single put a wrench in his plans.

Cabrera and Fielder are two of  the top-five hitters in baseball. Cabrera is simply better than Braun, and that 3-4 in Milwaukee was the best in the game as it was. Cabrera and Fielder hit for power, hit to all fields, have tremendous plate discipline and don’t strikeout often. They each have the complete package Phillies fans wish resided inside Ryan Howard.

Matt Cain

Cain signed a five-year extension Monday worth a guaranteed $112.5 million and a potential for $126 million. It is the largest deal for a righthanded pitcher in major league history.

Underrated no longer, Cain’s deal sets the tone for Cole Hamels’ impending mega-deal. It’s a semi-disastrous precursor for the Phils. Cain is 11 months younger than Hamels and has had a similarly dominant postseason run to a World Series title. After that, though, the similarities start to sway strongly in Hamels’ favor.

Hamels has averaged one more strikeout-per-nine innings over his career than Cain, as well as one fewer walk. That is significant. Over a full season that’s 20-22 more strikeouts and 20-22 fewer walks. Hamels also has a six percent edge on Cain in groundball rate – 43% to 37%.

Cain’s only real advantage on Hamels is his microscopic home run rate, which is due in large part to the monstrous confines of AT&T Park. Giants pitchers have annually maintained home run rates lower than league-average under pitching coach Dave Righetti, and Cain is perhaps the best example.

If Cain is worth a guaranteed $112.5 million, or $22.5MM per year, what does that make Hamels worth?

On top of all of the statistical advantages, Hamels being a lefty adds further value. Prior to Cain signing Monday, all of the top pitching contracts in history – CC Sabathia, Barry Zito, Cliff Lee – went to southpaws because it’s simply harder to find a great lefty.

I wrote in this space last week that if the Phillies offered Hamels five years, $105 million with a $20 million sixth-year option that carried with it a $7.5 million buyout, he’d likely sign. It’s eery how close those numbers are to what Cain signed for. The proposed $105MM deal plus the $7.5 million buyout equals exactly what Cain was guaranteed by the Giants, and if the Phillies were to pick up that $20 million option the total money would be only a million bucks less than what Cain can potentially earn. (I may not be able to change a tire, but I won’t apologize for saying I can predict contracts.)

And that’s why the Phillies needed to get this done before Cain signed, even if they thought Hamels and John Boggs were asking for an overpayment. Cain set Opening Day as a deadline for negotiations because he needed to scare Brian Sabean and maximize his value. Hamels set no deadlines, partly because he cares more about pitching and partly because he figures that only a bad injury can derail his hopes of a husky nine-figure deal.

What was an over-payment to the Phillies two days ago is a deal they may wish they’d have offered. Because if Cain’s worth $22.5 million per season, Hamels can’t possibly be worth less.

I’ve been documenting Hamels’ contract status for almost a year. It began last May with a comparison of a Hamels deal and the contract signed by Tigers ace Justin Verlander. It continued in late-August after Jered Weaver signed a team-friendly pact with the Angels.

As time has worn on, those two deals have become less and less meaningful with regard to Hamels’ impending payday. We aren’t looking at numbers like $85 or $90 million. We’re looking more so at a figure close to $120 million.

I wrote several months ago that a five-year, $100 million contract with a sixth-year team option at $22 million (with a $12 million buyout) would likely get Hamels signed. He gets his $20 million per season but the Phillies avoid handing out a six- or seven-year deal. The contract would be worth, at most, $122 million and at least $112MM.

On Wednesday, CSNPhilly.com Phillies insider Jim Salisbury reported that talks between the Phillies and Hamels have progressed, especially in the wake of the Dodgers being sold for $2 billion to an ownership group that will seek to make a splash in the coming years.

“One person with knowledge of the situation says the Phils know how much Hamels will cost – $20 million or more per season – and are set to pay it,” wrote Salisbury. “The person said the length of the deal is an issue, that the Phillies would like to do a four-year deal and Hamels wants more.”

The Phillies are offering four years like Jimmy Rollins wanted five in free agency. It’s unrealistic. Hamels would likely find a seven-year deal in free agency. Four is absurdly low for a pitcher of Hamels’ caliber. Four-year deals work for pitchers like Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Ryan Dempster. Not for a 28-year-old former World Series MVP in the prime of his career. Not for a pitcher who has a 2.92 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 300 more strikeouts than walks the past two seasons.

It’s a negotiation tactic. Start at four years and maybe you avoid six.

Salisbury said in both print and in a phone interview on “Daily News Live” that the Phillies feel optimistic and confident that a deal can be reached sooner rather than later.

It makes sense for the Phillies to get a deal done quickly — Hamels’ value will only increase with another brilliant season.

But a quick agreement also makes sense for Hamels himself, especially after watching his close friend Ryan Madson suffer a season-ending elbow injury that will likely forever derail Madson’s hopes for a huge payday.

Madson signed for $8.5 million this off-season with plans to re-test the market and secure a pricey multi-year deal this winter. But after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Madson will have to re-prove himself on an incentive-laden one-year deal that likely hovers around $4 million.

For Madson, a catastrophic injury will cost him approximately $25 million. For Hamels, it could easily be worth three-times that.

If the Phillies make an offer of five years, $100 million — guaranteeing Hamels at least $112 million and as much as $120MM — I don’t see how that offer gets left on the table.

The Phillies can afford it. Even if they give Hamels as much as $22 million per season, their 2013 payroll would be under a luxury tax threshold which then increases by $11 million in 2014.

It’s just going to come down to how long the Phillies stick to this artificial four-year offer before succumbing to the best homegrown pitcher they’ve ever developed.

In the last episode of Phillies Nation TV, Pat asked why Utley hadn’t yet seen an inning in the field or a plate appearance against live pitching. It was a valid question that offered more and more room for pessimism the longer you thought about it.

Sure, resting Utley was logical. But if he was going to be OK, why not give him an inning a week or a few at-bats just to catch him up to speed? Jimmy Rollins has dealt with plenty of injuries to his lower-half and he’s been out there regularly this Spring. It just didn’t bode well and on Monday, Phillies Nation (the collective, not the site), awoke to a nightmarish scenario that may turn out to be passable, but may usher in the end of the Chase Utley era in Philadelphia.

That’s the longer-term scenario we’re looking at here. Utley is 33 with a contract that expires after next season and knees that will never get better. The last part of that sentence has been stated both subtly and explicitly by Charlie Manuel and Ruben Amaro.

Utley is missing cartilage in his knee, and as Amaro put it Monday, “you just can’t grow back cartilage.” There is likely bone-on-bone friction in Utley’s knee(s), and all you have to do is imagine the feeling of moving laterally with bones rubbing each other to understand why such a cautious approach is necessary and why Utley is probably destined for DH-duty in his next deal.

This isn’t a curable condition, it’s one you attempt to manage, but the fact remains that nobody in the Phillies organization knows what is going to happen with Utley in 2012, much less 2013 and beyond. I can guarantee you that nobody in the front office is thinking about how to approach Utley’s next contract because no one knows what he’ll be 18 months from now.

It’s an incredibly sad situation. Utley was on a Hall-of-Fame pace through the end of 2009, when he was averaging a .301/.388/.535 slash-line with 32 homers and 43 doubles in full seasons while playing elite defense (top-1 or top-2 in the sport) at a premium position.

Utley was the player that separated the Phillies from other teams.

This was before Roy Halladay, and for half of 2009, before Cliff Lee. It was after Cole Hamels’ stellar postseason run but before he turned into a four-pitch demon. Utley was what was different about the Phillies. A patient hitter who could hit the ball anywhere, for power and average, reach balls to his left and right that 25 second basemen can’t glove and run the bases exceptionally.

Now, he’s a shell of that.

If Utley misses several weeks or several months, the Chase that returns won’t be the one who hit five homers against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series. It’ll be the Zombie Utley we’ve seen in 2010 and 2011 that hits .278 with a .800 OPS.

We’ll delve into the analysis of what Utley’s absence means in the coming weeks. Hopefully Freddy Galvis proves in early-April that his Spring success was just minimally fluky. Hopefully Galvis gets off to a hot enough start that we don’t have to hear about why the Phillies traded the eminently replaceable Wilson Valdez.

In the meantime though, the real story is how quickly and unfortunately a Hall-of-Fame career was derailed.

Chase Utley could have been one of the all-time greats. Instead, I fear he’ll be viewed outside of Philadelphia as one of many players who merely had a great five-year peak.

The Phillies released Dontrelle Willis on Friday.

The Phillies released Dontrelle Willis Friday morning, per the team’s official Twitter account.

Willis, who allowed five runs in 2.2 innings this Spring against 12 righties and just four lefties, was on a non-guaranteed deal.

While it was a good idea by Ruben Amaro to try to convert a deceptive pitcher on the down-swing into a left-handed specialist (lefties hit just .127 off Willis last season and .216 the year before), the plan didn’t work out as expected.

Maybe it’s for the best, as Dontrelle’s departure clears the way for a young, cheaper Phillies reliever to make the team. And Willis would have likely continued to be misused on the Phils anyway. Last season J.C. Romero faced 27 more righties than lefties. Willis is similarly ineffective against opposite-handed batters.

By cutting Willis prior to Opening Day, the Phillies save just over $700,000, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

PHOTO: AP

A stir was created when, following his 2.2-inning, 7-hit, 5-earned run start against the Twins Wednesday, Ken Rosenthal reported that Roy Halladay‘s velocity was down to 89 miles per hour. Here’s how Rosenthal told it:

One scout said Halladay topped out at 89 mph Wednesday against the Minnesota Twins, threw from a lower arm angle and lacked bite on his changeup and sinker. Another said that Halladay does not resemble the same pitcher who comes out “like gangbusters” every spring.

Rosenthal spoke to Ruben Amaro before publishing the piece and Amaro downplayed the situation, saying he wasn’t concerned.

“I’m not worried about his arm strength,” Amaro said. “He’s only throwing 89 mph. He usually throws 91 to 93. It’s really not that much different at this stage of camp.

“If it was March 25 and he was still throwing in that range and not locating, then I’d be concerned. Right now, he’s just working on command. I don’t have any concerns. He’s throwing a lot of off-speed pitches, working on his changeup, different things.”

Halladay then came out and, as Deadspin labeled it, “accused Rosenthal of throwing some [fecal matter] at the wall.”

“Yeah, I heard about that,” said Halladay. “Poor reporting on the extreme end of poor reporting. It couldn’t be further from the truth.”

Two quick points:

• Halladay’s average fastball is just over 92 mph. A drop to 89 isn’t precipitous, and furthermore, Halladay is far from a hurler who relies on velocity. His pitching blueprint is very similar to Greg Maddux‘s old approach. Command, movement and intelligence are all more critical to Halladay’s success than velocity.

• That being said, if Halladay’s fastball loses some speed we could see an increase in his foul balls, which is usually the best way to knock Doc out of a game. You get the feeling that when Halladay finally does wind down, he won’t be bashed around the yard but will instead give up a ton of foul balls that lead to longer, more successful at-bats and earlier exits.

I’ve gotten a few questions on Twitter since Wednesday from fans feeling all different levels of concern. Most are brushing it off as a one-time occurrence. Some are scared. One wrote to me that if Halladay keeps it up, the Phillies should trade Cole Hamels and start a rebuilding process.

My reaction after the initial “Uh-oh” was, “Wow, how freaking good is Halladay that this is only the first or second negative report we’ve heard about him in three years.”

Just remember the date Amaro used, March 25. Comments like these are typically forgotten, and if Halladay tops out at 89 instead of 92-94 in the final week of March, words will be twisted in a new way. But just keep 3/25 on your calendar, just in case.

If his velocity is still down, then maybe we worry.

We also examine Dontrelle Willis’ odds of making the team and why Charlie Manuel might be to blame for his early struggles.

Later in the show we talk teams to fear in the National League, and why Roy Halladay struggles so much in the first inning of games.

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

Chase Utley may or may not be able to go by Opening Day.

The picture got no clearer Wednesday, when Charlie Manuel said of Utley potentially playing in a Spring Training game: “It’s coming up pretty soon, it’ll be a few days yet, but then he’ll start pushing his workouts up. He’ll get going pretty soon. We’ll get him some live pitching and see where he’s at.”

But even still, Manuel’s phrasing and several signs Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com points out leave room to believe… maybe Utley won’t be ready.

Sources tell CSNPhilly that the Phillies are looking for infield help. And Salisbury points out that Freddy Galvis has played second base upwards of 30 innings in the Phils’ past five Spring Training games. Galvis figures to see more time there while Michael Martinez heals his bruised elbow.

Galvis is hitting .308 this Spring in 26 at-bats and leads the Phillies with 7 RBI. Two stats you’ll either be impressed by or say “meaningless sample” to.

He’s 22 and has played 33 games at the Triple-A level. Letting him develop offensively is the plan. He hit well, by light-hitting, glove savvy middle infielder standards, last season at Lehigh Valley… .298/.315/.324. But his OPSs from 2007-09 were .507, .588, .568, all at Single-A. In the National League in 2011, the lowest player OPS was .615 by Jason Bartlett.

So a backup plan is likely in order.

And that would be trading for a middle infielder. The name that jumps out at me is Alberto Callaspo.

David Murphy made the connection Wednesday. My brother Eric is writing something up on it today at Brotherly Glove.

Callaspo just fits this team. He’d add offense at second and third base, two positions plagued recently by injuries. Callaspo, according to Fangraphs, was worth 6.8 runs offensively and 7.6 runs defensively (accounted for position) last season.

6.8 + 7.6 = 14.4 runs for Callaspo.

Placido Polanco was worth 14.0 runs defensively but cost the Phillies 5.5 runs with the bat.

14.0 – 5.5 = 8.5 runs for Polanco.

From 2009-11, Callaspo hit .285/.341/.404 with full-season averages of 34 doubles and 10 home runs. He’s played about 1,700 career innings at second base and 1,300 at third base. He’s also played shortstop sparingly and both corner outfield positions on rare occasions.

Callaspo would be a perfect middle infield super-sub, he just hasn’t realized that role yet. Callaspo plays for the Angels, a team with a lot of positional redundancy heading into 2012.

Callaspo projects as the Angels’ Opening Day starter at third base, but he’s only started 3 of the last 7 games there for the Angels. Mark Trumbo — who hit 29 homers and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting last season but must leave first base because of Albert Pujols — has played 3 of the other 4 at third base, and Jorge Cantu started the other game.

The Angels also have Maicer Izturis — another player Murphy mentioned as a possibility — to play third base. Callaspo is far from a need for Los Angeles. He’s making $3.15 million this season. His final year of arbitration is 2013.  And at $146 million, the Angels’ payroll is the highest it’s ever been.

Earlier this off-season, the Angels reportedly tried to land Joe Blanton in a three-team deal that would have sent Bobby Abreu to the Yankees and A.J. Burnett to the Phillies.

So… why not trade the Halos Blanton for Callaspo, straight up? A good old-fashioned baseball trade. Need for need. Redundancy for redundancy.

(To be clear, I’m not calling Blanton a pure redundancy, just recognizing that the Phils have Vance Worley, Kyle Kendrick, Joel Pineiro and Dave Bush immediately available for two spots. Pineiro and Bush have pitched this Spring but haven’t yet started. They figure to get starts as camp wears on. So far, the Phillies have given all 13 starts to the projected starting rotation, with one from Kendrick.)

It wouldn’t accomplish the goal of giving the Angels salary relief, but it would subtract a redundancy of theirs for a need. The Angels’ projected fifth starter is 29-year-old journeyman Jerome Williams.

Williams has been hurt for a few weeks and in his place, 24-year-old Garrett Richards has been given the opportunity to make the team. Richards pitched well in Double-A last season but has never pitched at Triple-A, and even if he makes  the team and has early success, the Halos would be one starting pitching injury away from having to turn to a replacement-level starter.

The Phils could trade Blanton and his $8.5MM pricetag for Callaspo at $3.15 million. The Angels would pick up their fifth starter and trade away a player they don’t need. The Phillies would get injury insurance in a super-sub that has played every day for three straight seasons, and save $5.35 million if the Angels pay Blanton’s full salary. It isn’t unreasonable to think an Angels team that spent more than $300 million this off-season but isn’t convinced it can win its own division in 2012 would pay an extra $5 million to give 180 innings to Blanton rather than to Williams or Richards.

Win-win-win.

At least I see it that way. How about you? Who says no first, and why?

Joe Blanton's trade stock: rising.

Let’s talk Joe Blanton.

Coming off a 40-inning 2011 season filled with elbow problems, the 31-year-old righty had little trade value from November-to-February. His $8.5 million salary for 2012 appeared too pricey for a pitching-hungry team to bite on, given the health risk and his impending free agency. Why trade anything of value for someone who hadn’t yet conquered injury scares at the most important part of a pitcher’s body? Why take on salary?

That was then. This is March 12. Blanton has made clear that he feels healthy, and more importantly, he has had immediate Spring success after describing the comfort in his elbow. Blanton has pitched five scoreless innings in two starts, which most of us view as a minute sample in relatively meaningless games. But scouts don’t always see things that way.

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos — one of the game’s most creative minds — was reportedly at Blanton’s start last Saturday, and sources told FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi that Anthopoulos left directly after Blanton exited the game.

Are the Blue Jays interested in Blanton? It would make sense.

Toronto’s rotation is captained by Ricky Romero, but the 2nd-through-5th starters are all question marks. Brandon Morrow has exceptional stuff and has proven he can maintain high-strikeout numbers, but a piece of his game is missing. Brett Cecil has had an up-and-down career, experiencing early success then struggling and spending time in the minors. Dustin McGowan has made four starts since 2008. Henderson Alvarez is 21 years old with the chance to be a plus-control fourth starter.

The Blue Jays need a pitcher like Blanton, a steady, reliable mid-to-back end rotation pitcher. It’s cliche to use those adjectives for Blanton, but it’s what he is… a 2.0-to-2.5 win starter from whom you know what to expect from start to start. Blanton isn’t boom-bust, he’s a 6-7 inning, 3-run pitcher. Some teams need that more than others. Toronto is one of them.

What has transpired early in the Spring is a blessing for the Phillies. Blanton being healthy and looking productive gives Ruben Amaro choices and it returns the leverage of a Blanton trade to the Phillies’ side. A few months ago, we were looking at salary relief as the best-case scenario in a trade of Blanton. Now, with another solid exhibition outing, Blanton could fetch a decent prospect and $5-7 million of freed payroll.

David Murphy wrote Monday morning that Blanton is perceived to be available by folks in baseball. Should the Phillies listen? Should they actively shop Blanton? Or should they keep a healthy Kentucky Joe for themselves?

It obviously depends on the return, but I say trade him.

It really comes down to what the Phils value: trade deadline flexibility and the chance to upgrade offensively or a steady fourth starter for the course of a 162-game season in a tougher National League East.

Since the Phillies are playing for October more than May and June, that deadline flexibility is so much more important than the 1.5 wins a healthy Blanton would give them over Kyle Kendrick, Joel Pineiro or Dave Bush. The ability to bring in a bat if the first base platoon fails or if John Mayberry can’t cut it every day in left field exceeds the need for a fourth starter, especially in the playoffs when that pitcher might be needed for a grand total of three starts.

This obviously assumes rotational health come playoff time, but what would you prefer in October, Blanton for those three starts and the same offense you see now, or Vance Worley in that role and the chance to bring in another hitter?

It’s far too early to speculate as to what bats would be available by the deadline, but thinking ahead wouldn’t hurt a team with such a high probability of making the playoffs.

The perception of Blanton has changed quickly. His $8.5 million salary went from a hindrance to an attractive one-year pricetag for a team looking to make a short-term upgrade.

The Phillies have a chance to act while Blanton’s stock is rising. The fans and front office say they want to replenish the minor-league cupboard… this is a way to do that. The prospect wouldn’t be a major difference-maker, but he could be a solid mid-level starting pitcher or infielder who could help two or three years from now.

But most importantly, it would give the Phillies the ability to transfer Blanton’s value to the offensive side of the ball come July.

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

I’ve wanted to address this for several weeks because as more and more Phillies fans begin to understand the concept of Major League Baseball’s luxury tax, more and more tend to misunderstand it.

The luxury tax this season is $178 million, same as it was last season. It will be $178 million in 2013. In 2014, it increases to $189 million.

The luxury tax is not a salary cap. Ruben Amaro and the Phillies are not obligated to keep their payroll under $178 million. They would very much like to, because the first time you exceed it, you pay 22.5 cents for every dollar over the tax threshold.

So, for example, if the Phillies exceed the threshold this season by $3 million (spending $181MM) they would be on the hook for an additional $675,000 of “dead money.”

Yeah, $675,000. Just a little bit more than they paid Pete Orr last year.

As much as a team like the Phillies would want to stay under the tax threshold so as not to set a precedent, do you really see $675,000 or a number similar to it standing in the way of keeping all of Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino?

I ask because that seems to be the growing sentiment. Maybe it’s because fans misunderstand the luxury tax as a salary cap, maybe it’s because the Phillies were perceived as cheap for so many years, or maybe it’s just because it’s easy to regurgitate what you hear people say.

But seriously… pay $675,000, or let a key member of the team walk. Which option do you think a major market GM in a sports-crazed, win-now city would choose?

This topic is especially appropriate since the tax threshold increases by $11 million the season after next. The season the Phils have the best chance of going over would be next year, when you still have players you need to pay and the tax threshold hasn’t yet increased.

In a perfect world, the Phillies extend Cole Hamels before he hits free agency this winter and find a common ground with Victorino either during the season or after it.

If they sign both, then pay Pence $15-16 million in his final year of arbitration next season, and also pick up Carlos Ruiz‘s 2013 option, they’d owe roughly $150 million to 10 players. They’d need 15-to-20 more major-league ready players and have about $28 million free.

But 8-10 of those 15-20 players can come from the low-cost, team-controlled guys like Mayberry, Brown, Worley, Stutes, Herndon, Schwimer, De Fratus, Aumont, etc.

Add in those cheapies and you have about $23 million under the tax for 7-10 players.

Will the Phillies cut it close this season, next season and the one after? Yes. But they won’t wake up and start spending $215 million like the Yankees, who have exceeded the threshold every year since 2003 and, because of which, pay a whopping 40% for every dollar over… 40% on almost $40 million.

The Yankees have spent $200 million on luxury tax penalties alone since 2004, or about $25 million per season.

And we’re talking about $675,000. $25 million vs. $675,000.

A goal is to stay under. A larger goal is to keep fans happy and keep the most competitive product possible on the field. Amaro wants to avoid it like you or I want to avoid a speeding ticket on the way to work when we’re 15 minutes late. It would be great if we could get there on time going 65, but if it takes 88 miles per hour to be in by 9:00, well, that’s just the cost of business.

The Nix/Wigginton platoon might not struggle like Ryan Howard in early-May of 2011, but it won't flourish like Howard in mid-June.

I think we’re all getting a bit too comfortable with the idea of Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix playing first base every day while Ryan Howard is out.

With Howard’s latest setback — which I’m glad we all realize now is a setback, even if the word “setback” isn’t used — the possibility exists that The Big Piece doesn’t return until late-June, early-July, perhaps even after the All-Star break. Just think about it… it’s an infection on an incision on his Achilles’. He’ll be in a walking boot for the next 10-or so days, and after that you’d imagine the rehab process either starts over or moves slower than it was in the opening days in Clearwater.

What it means is a whole lot more Wigginton and Nix than we originally anticipated.

Now, I for one have made it clear that I’m a believer in the first base platoon, that it’s a good idea to put two players in situations where they can succeed and refrain from playing them in scenarios where the degree of failure is high.

But what if Wigginton, who hasn’t truly had an above-average offensive season since the year the Phillies won the World Series, is just no longer effective at age 34? What if Nix, who had a .299 on-base percentage last season, doesn’t perform against right-handed pitching?

I know, I know… what if the moon were made of cheese… but these are legitimate questions. There is just as much likelihood in the failure of the first base platoon as there is of success. It’s a good idea on paper, but these aren’t exactly the best options against opposite-handed pitching.

Nix had a .475 slugging percentage against righties in 2011 but his OBP against them was .306.

Wigginton from 2009-11 hit .248 with a .700 OPS against lefties, numbers worse than the ones he put up against same-handed pitching.

What happens if one or both of these acquisitions turn into Wes Helms? When the Phillies signed Helms before the 2007 season, he was coming off of two very impressive campaigns as a part-time player in Milwaukee and Florida. He came to Philadelphia and made an out more than 70% of the time and slugged .368, or just a little bit higher than Wilson Valdez in 2010 and 2011.

If the first base platoon doesn’t work, you’d imagine action wouldn’t be taken until mid-May at the earliest. A lack of production in April would just be seen as an early-season slump, as an adjustment period. It would take something like six weeks for Charlie Manuel to stop giving these guys chances to build up confidence.

So what you’d be looking at is a situation in mid-May where John Mayberry shifts from left field to first base and Juan Pierre/Scott Podsednik begins playing three out of every four games.

Pierre is a nice piece, especially in a bench role for few relative dollars, but the Phillies’ everyday lineup isn’t really built to incorporate a player like him.

What would it even look like? My best guess would be: Rollins-Pierre-Utley-Pence-Victorino-Mayberry-Polanco-Ruiz-Pitcher.

No, batting Pierre second isn’t optimal, but that’s what I realistically expect Charlie Manuel to do. I mean, this is the same manager who gave Michael Martinez 98 plate appearances in the two-hole last season and made clear early in Spring Training that he’s looking for a greater emphasis on bunting.

I know what you’re thinking at this point… if the platoon flops, why not just move Mayberry to first and bring up Domonic Brown to play left field? But while that’s the easy option for a fan to make, it’s time to let it sink in that those who watch him every single day believe that Brown is not yet ready for everyday action. And even though it may seem hard to believe, Brown hasn’t yet had a full season at Triple-A. The best-case scenario for all parties involved here would be to leave Brown at Lehigh Valley all season and let him build up enough confidence so that when he returns to the majors, he really believes he can do it. Unless, of course, Brown just absolutely tears the cover off the ball and forces a call-up.

I’m not convinced the first base platoon will fail. But I’m not convinced it will succeed, either. I could see Wigginton and Nix flourishing as interchangeable parts in the six-hole just as easily as I could see either one being booed like Helms in the summer of 2007.

The point is, I think we’re all just a little bit too comfortable with the notion of the Phillies being OK with Ryan Howard out of the lineup.

There are two- to three-week periods during each season when any pitcher, lefty or righty, rookie or veteran, power or finesse, can retire Howard with ease. Periods like May 4 to May 20, 2011, when Howard went 7-for-56 with 23 strikeouts and drove in six runs in 16 games, struggling against lefties like Jorge De La Rosa, C.J. Wilson and John Lannan, nibbling righties like Ricky Nolasco and Jason Marquis, young power arms like Jhoulys Chacin and top-tier guys like Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Howard was awful during that 15-game span and the Phillies went 7-8.

But there are also periods where Howard carries the Phillies’ offense on his back the way a Wigginton or Nix cannot… periods like June 12 to June 23, 2011, when Howard went 15-for-36 with as many walks (8) as strikeouts, a good supply of power (five extra-base hits) and more RBIs (12) than games (11). And that stretch came against lefties like Jason Vargas and Doug Davis, top-tier pitchers like Felix Hernandez and (to a lesser extent) Anibal Sanchez and middling righties like Kyle Lohse. Howard was great over that 11-game span and the Phillies were 8-3.

The first base platoon might work, it might not. It was a good idea by Ruben Amaro to cheaply stem the tide until Howard returns by obtaining two players who should theoretically succeed.

But don’t let an interesting, efficient idea fool you into thinking that it can’t fail.

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

A benefit to the Phillies having the second most wins in baseball since 2007 (473, the Yankees have 479) is that few players want to leave.

Going back to that first playoff season since 1993, every free agent the Phillies let walk — save for Jayson Werth — found work elsewhere because the team decided to move on.

Shane Victorino is the latest in a series of players who have expressed their desire to remain in Philadelphia, but his words were a bit more direct than most. Victorino explicitly used the words “hometown discount” this week, which was sonic beauty to Phillies fans and torture to his agents, the Levinson Brothers.

“I’m willing to give up free agency,” Victorino told ESPN’s Jayson Stark at the beginning of the final week of February. “A lot of guys won’t. In the game of baseball, free agency is what every major league player dreams of. You want to maximize your value, and of course I do, too. But what’s important to me is, I want to be here. I love playing here. My family loves the city. I love the city. So when I made that statement (to Todd Zolecki, that I’m not going anywhere), that’s what I meant.”

Victorino likely realized after those comments that no matter how badly he wants to stay in Philly, it isn’t worth making public comments and losing so much leverage. He clarified things a bit for CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury Thursday morning.

“I look at it this way, if it’s a significant difference, I have to weigh my options,” Victorino told CSNPhilly.com. “I obviously love playing in Philly. They made me who I am. That sits in the back of my mind. But I also understand there’s a window in this game. Age and time comes into play. When I say I don’t want to go anywhere — yeah, I call this home and I want to finish my career here — but we’ll see how it goes.

“I won’t say I won’t take a hometown discount, but I also will say I want to maximize my opportunity with not only what I’ve accomplished as an individual, but as part of a team.”

Victorino then made his first public request for five years, the same contractual length Jimmy Rollins sought at the outset of his own free agency.

“I’ll be 32 on the market,” said Victorino. “I can go another five years. I would think even more. I want to go until I’m 40. My agents say I can get a five-year deal on the market. Why not trust them?”

Here’s the part where we examine whether or not five years is a realistic length for Victorino.

The short answer is absolutely.

In sitting down to write this, I thought comparing Victorino to Torii Hunter was a novel idea, but as often happens, it’s just an idea that independently hit me two days after it hit David Murphy and 10 hours after it hit Zolecki.

Anywho, Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the Angels prior to the 2008 season, when he was 32, the same age Victorino turns in November.

And Victorino hasn’t just out-produced Hunter in the years leading up to his free agency, he’s blown him out of the water.

In the four seasons before Hunter went on the market, he compiled 11.3 WAR, or an average of 2.8 wins above replacement per season. In his last four seasons, Victorino has totaled 18.0 WAR, or 4.5 per season.

Whether you believe in WAR as an all-encompassing stat or not, the market value for one win above replacement is around $4-4.5 million. That is, a league-average player who is worth 2.0 WAR per season could realistically command a two-year, $9 million deal.

In a perfectly fair world, Victorino would have made $81 million for his high level of production the last four seasons — 4.5 WAR x $4.5MM = $20.25 million per season. Moving forward, we could realistically peg Victorino as a 4.0-WAR player the next four seasons. His blend of power, elite baserunning and solid defense at one of the sport’s toughest positions will prevent him from falling off a cliff from a value standpoint.

So, assuming he’ll produce 4.0 WAR each season for the next four or five years, a five-year deal for Victorino belongs precisely at $90 million, the same as Hunter’s terms.

But not all free agent cases are created equal. Hunter was probably overpaid by the Angels, but Los Angeles needed an outfielder and middle-of-the-order bat to complement Vladimir Guerrero, and needed to make a splash. Hunter felt loyalty to the Twins, but not enough to disregard an offer that would set his family up for generations.

Victorino is a different story. He clearly wants to stay in Philly, and the circumstances surrounding the Phils’ extremely high payroll dictate that if staying means as much to Victorino as he says it does, he’ll need to take that hometown discount.

In a quick poll on Twitter, I found that Phillies fans are seeing this situation in an unrealistically optimistic light. One fan said he’d go no further than $10 million per year for Victorino. Another said $11 million. Another said $12 million.

Average annual salaries ranging from $10-12 million are too low. When Victorino said “if it’s a significant difference, I have to weigh my options,” this is likely what he meant. There is a huge difference between $12 million and the $18 million per season that he deserves. Over a four- or five-year deal, that is a total of $24-30 million, which was the inheritance distributed to Michael Jackson’s children.

In situations like this, compromising by bridging the gap is often the best course of action in getting a deal done. And Victorino wants to get that deal done quickly.

The middle-ground between $12MM and $18MM is $15 million. So that’s our annual average value.

But five years, at $15MM a pop? That’s where that “hometown discount” comes back to play a role. The Phillies should give Victorino four years with a team or mutual option, but not five. To make him feel a little better about the non-guaranteed fifth year, they can boost the value of the deal slightly by throwing in an extra $2.5 million.

The end result? A four-year, $62.5 million contract extension for Victorino.

Is $15.625 million per season affordable for the Phillies?

Yes.

Signing Victorino to that annual average value and signing Cole Hamels for roughly $21 million per season would put the Phils’ 2013 payroll at $149 million, for 10 players. That leaves 15-20 open roster spots and about $30 million before the luxury tax kicks in.

Between 8-10 of those open spots will be filled by cheap, young guys like John Mayberry, Domonic Brown, Michael Martinez and the plethora of impressive home-grown relievers. Add in those salaries at an average of $500,000 and the Phillies would be at $154 million for 20 players. Hunter Pence‘s final year of arbitration would brings that number to about $168 million. Picking up Carlos Ruiz‘s option would bring it to $173 million.

The end result is that, yes, the Phillies can afford to extend both Hamels and Victorino (and eventually Pence, just not until next year). The casualty is that they won’t be able to sign a top-tier third baseman.

So I guess the question you must ask yourself is, “Do I want Victorino in center, or do I want a top-tier third baseman?”

The only player who will be both worth it and available next winter — if his option isn’t picked up or he is traded before-hand — is some guy named David Wright.

Jose Contreras may be ready for Opening Day after season-ending elbow surgery in 2011.

It seemed that every time Jose Contreras’s name was mentioned last summer, it preceded the word “setback.” That he arrived in Clearwater last week feeling good and has taken legitimate steps toward recovering from a balky elbow has been an extremely pleasant surprise for the Phillies, who suddenly have a wealth of late-inning relief options.

Contreras threw again Monday after two days of rest and signs were positive enough that there is now a chance he could be ready for Opening Day. When asked about Big Truck, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said “He’s where we hoped he’d be at, that’s always good to see.”

What does a healthy Contreras mean?

Well, should Contreras make the Phils’ Opening Day 25-man roster, he, Chad Qualls and Antonio Bastardo figure to fight for a setup role that would probably be best served going to the hottest hand or the best matchup.

A side effect of Contreras being ready for April 5 in Pittsburgh would be fierce competition for the final bullpen spot among the Phillies’ plethora of young relievers. Prior to the ink drying on Qualls’ one-year deal, it looked as though Michael Stutes and Justin De Fratus were locks for the Opening Day roster and Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont, Joel Pineiro and David Herndon would compete for the 12th spot on the pitching staff.

With Contreras healthy, Stutes, De Fratus, Schwimer, Aumont, Pineiro and Herndon would all be competing for one spot. All of this assumes the Phillies begin the season with 13 position players and 12 pitchers.

Though Contreras’s presence might stunt the short-term growth of the Phils’ young arms, this isn’t a Danys Baez-type of situation where an older, lesser option is being given a roster spot simply because of his price tag. Contreras is due $2.5 million in 2012 and either $2.5 million in 2013 or a $500,000 buyout, but when healthy he has been worth every penny.

In 2010, Contreras struck out almost four times as many batters as he walked, limited the opposition to a .249 batting average and induced a swing-and-miss on 10.5 percent of his pitches. Those were elite numbers that appeared to carry over into 2011 until elbow problems took miles per hour off Contreras’ fastball and messed with his previously pinpoint control.

Contreras’s presence at the back-end of the bullpen wasn’t something many Phillies fans were expecting in 2012, and too often since 2009 have Phillies injury updates been negative. It’s nice to get a positive report every once in a while.

Juan Pierre was voted the second-best minor-league signing of the off-season by MLB Trade Rumors.

The Phillies enter Spring Training with arguably more depth, both positionally and in the starting rotation, than any team in baseball. It doesn’t mean Ruben Amaro assembled the most talented bunch, pound for pound, but the Phils have enough quality bodies (really, Corey?) to push each other in an attempt to make the 25-man roster.

Two of Amaro’s better signings this Winter were Juan Pierre and Joel Pineiro to minor-league deals. MLBTradeRumors released its Top-10 Minor League Deals of the Off-season on Tuesday and Pierre and Pineiro checked in at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. Fronting the list is Reds left-hander Jeff Francis.

As MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes notes, Pierre has declined but is still valuable, more so than Nate McLouth or Mark Kotsay, who were each given major league deals. And Pineiro, despite his ineffectiveness in Anaheim last season, is only a season removed from posting a 2.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a 55% ground ball rate, a 3.84 ERA and 2.5 wins above replacement in the tougher league.

Before the off-season started, MLBTR recognized Pierre as the 43rd-best available free agent and Pineiro as the 46th.

Pierre’s contract is non-guaranteed, though the expectation seems to be that he’ll make the Phils’ final roster as a fifth outfielder. Either way, the Phils snagged a useful bench piece for minimal risk, especially in comparison to Endy Chavez, McLouth and Kotsay, who each signed one-year deals for between $1.25-to-1.75 million.

Pineiro, meanwhile, probably won’t make the team unless a pitcher gets hurt in Spring Training. The Phils figure to carry a 12-man pitching staff of: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton, Papelbon, Bastardo, Stutes, Qualls, Kendrick, Dontrelle and either Justin De Fratus or Jose Contreras.

When a semi-productive veteran can’t make a team out of camp, the two typical scenarios are:

A) He is cut and allowed to catch on with another team, or
B) An out-clause in his contract states that if he isn’t called up to the majors by a certain date, he is free to explore other opportunities.

It would probably behoove Pineiro to accept a starter’s role at Lehigh Valley if he doesn’t make the team, building up his arm strength and pitching regularly. If a Phillies starter goes down, he would get the first call. If the Phils’ staff maintains its health through the middle or end of May, he could be free to replace the injured starter of another team.

The fact that these scenarios even invite discussion is a good thing, it means that an older team like the Phillies is equipped to weather the injuries that have plagued them annually since 2009.

Just remember next time you bring up the two-year contracts of Danys Baez and Laynce Nix that Amaro also signed two of the top-50 free agents this off-season to the deal he wanted.