Based on the way the 2012 schedule is set up, it is imperative that the Phils start strong — perhaps even stronger than last season’s 57-34 first-half record — and avoid the familiar April malaise and June swoon.

The post-All-Star break schedule is grueling.

To start the season’s unofficial second half, the Phils play 41 consecutive games and 53 of the first 56 against teams figuring to be in contention.

Included in that stretch are nine games with the Braves and six with the Nationals and Marlins. In fact, 33 of the Phils’ 54 meetings with Atlanta, Washington and Miami come after the break.

Building a comfortable NL East lead over the season’s first three months won’t be as easy as it would have been with Ryan Howard in the lineup. Despite his well-documented inefficiencies, Howard is still capable of carrying an offense for two weeks in a way that Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix are not.

With Howard out of the lineup until perhaps mid-to-late May, Wigginton and Nix will be much more than just role players.

Laynce Nix is one of several Ryan Howard replacements who must hit well early against weak competition.

It is believed that Wigginton will see the bulk of time at first base and Nix and Mayberry will platoon in left field, but all three men can play both positions. In a perfect world, Jim Thome should also see a game per week at first base.

Pitching will lead the Phils against a slew of weak first-half opponents (12 games vs. the Mets, seven vs. Pittsburgh, seven with San Diego, six with the Cubs, three with Baltimore and Minnesota, two with Houston), but the offense can’t sputter in the early-going, allowing inferior teams to stay in games in hopes of stealing bullpen victories. Anything less than a 26-15 record against these flawed foes would be a disappointment.

Fortunately, Ruben Amaro has designed a deep team built to play specifically to certain players’ strengths.

Nix, lifetime, has hit .253 with a .451 slugging percentage against righties and .181 with a Wilson Valdez-esque .271 slugging percentage vs. lefties. But because of the many platoon options at first and left, he’ll likely face fewer lefties than Greg Dobbs ever did.

On the flipside, Wigginton gets on base four percent more and has an OPS 64 points higher against lefties than righties.

The right-handed Mayberry hit .250 with a .785 OPS against righties last season and .306 with a .953 OPS vs. lefties. He faced 56 more righties than lefties, a split we can expect to see reversed.

If Nix faces only righties and Wigginton and Mayberry see as many southpaws as same-handed pitchers, all three should enter the break with nice numbers.

Amaro’s low-priced moves have set the Phillies up to succeed in the short-term against weak competition. And it will need to play out that way, because once Howard gets his legs under him, the schedule doesn’t give the Phils a chance to relax.

The Phillies' Tuesday signing of Chad Qualls shows that not every cheap deal is a good deal.

Ordinarily, complaints about a one-year, $1.15 million deal would be silly. But when you consider how Chad Qualls’ presence will affect the short-term growth of Michael Stutes, Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus, the Phillies’ Tuesday signing of the 33-year-old journeyman reliever carries with it as many negatives as positives.

At some point, you need to see what the young guys have.

The Phillies did that with Stutes in 2011 out of necessity, and only because he immediately succeeded did they continue to put him in high leverage situations. The (good) problem with having such lofty team expectations is that you cannot give young players on-the-job training. If the Phillies were the Pirates, or even a team like the Reds, Domonic Brown would probably be working through his troubles at the major-league level.

The same goes for the Phils’ young crop of relievers, which doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A.

Stutes showed at age 24 that his fastball-slider combo is good enough to miss bats in The Show.

De Fratus stormed through the minors, dominating at every level and deserves a spot on the Phillies’ Opening Day roster.

Schwimer struggled in the majors, but he too sped through the minors with high-strikeout, low-walk rates and whatever assessment is made of his 2011 performance is incomplete based on the way he was used. At 25, Schwimer already understands and talks about pitching at an advanced level.

Aumont struck out 78 batters in 53 innings last season for Reading and Lehigh Valley and he’s probably the furthest one away.

It’s not that bringing in Qualls is a bad move. He has a rubber arm and a sinker-slider combo that induces plenty of ground balls (57.5% career GB rate). But since entering the league, 13 percent of Qualls’ fly balls have been home runs, a number only one reliever – Brandon League – has topped. And he’ll be pitching at Citizens Bank Park, a stadium which has only seen its home run percentage drop because of a rotation full of aces.

Unless the hops really go way Qualls’ way in 2012, he’ll again be a middling reliever worth 0.3 to 0.7 wins … which is fine for $1.15 million, and would be a welcome upgrade if he were stepping into the Danys Baez spot.

But Qualls won’t be used in that role. He’ll be used in one that takes opportunities away from the Phillies’ quartet of young, potential “stud” relievers.

The bullpen has been an organizational strength for the Phils in recent years and in order for the young righties to continue to progress they’ll need to pitch in high-pressure situations, not in the sixth or ninth innings of a blowout.

Hometown boy Jesse Biddle of Germantown Friends was the Phils’ lone pitching representative on Mayo’s list. The 6-foot-4 lefty struck out 124 batters in 133 innings last season at Lakewood, serving up just five home runs en route to a 2.98 ERA. Referring to his mid-90s fastball, mid-80s changeup and low-70s curveball, Mayo describes Biddle as “having a chance to have three above average-to-plus pitches when all is said and done.”

Baseball America ranks Biddle the Phils’ No. 2 prospect behind righthanded pitcher Trevor May, who struck out 208 batters in 151 innings last season at Clearwater. May didn’t crack Mayo’s list for righties.

Catcher Sebastian Valle also checked in at No. 9 overall on Mayo’s list for his respective position.

Mayo says, of Valle: “[He] has good bat speed and should grow into more power, especially if he can learn better plate discipline. He’s very agile behind the plate and throws well, giving him all the skills to be an excellent all-around catcher in the future.”

The Phils are likely thrilled to still have a catching prospect as highly regarded as Valle, as they traded the No. 3 catcher on Mayo’s list just two winters ago. Though no matter how successful a major leaguer Travis d’Arnaud becomes … Roy Halladay is Roy Halladay.

The 36-year-old Cordero manned the ninth for the Reds from 2008-11, saving 38 games per season with a 2.96 ERA. His WHIP with Cincy was a mediocre 1.30 and his ratio of strikeouts-per-nine (7.6) to walks-per-nine (4.1) wasn’t close to the level of a Madson or Jonathan Papelbon, but Cordero is a solid short-term reliever who could get a look from the Phillies, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.

The Phils are looking around for relief help to supplement the setup trio of Antonio Bastardo (late-season struggles), Mike Stutes (youth) and Jose Contreras (health issues). They were unable to lure Madson back on a one-year deal and it appears that Kerry Wood, who the Phils were also eyeing, is headed back to the Cubs.

On a one-year deal, Cordero would add stability to the eighth inning, put less pressure on Bastardo and Stutes and allow Contreras to ease his way back. The last full season in which Cordero wasn’t a primary closer was 2003, but at 36 with so few suitors, he may have to take a setup role.

Heyman’s tweet was pure speculation and the Phils haven’t otherwise been directly linked to Cordero, but the fit is natural. One hindrance to signing Cordero would be his financial desires. The bigger problem would be the willingness of a team like the Angels or Cardinals to offer Cordero at least the hope of closing. Whereas the Phillies are locked in to Papelbon in the ninth, the Angels have a young incumbent in Jordan Walden who could struggle and give way to Cordero, and the Cardinals, too, have inexperienced options.

If you were Cordero, would you take the job where you know you won’t close, or the one that offers a chance?

Keeping that in mind, the only way the Phils can make a legitimate run at Cordero would be to offer more than other teams are offering on a one-year deal. But we’d imagine it would have to be a considerable amount more, since the opportunity of closing offers Cordero more future dollars than would setting up for the Phillies.

Earlier in the off-season, Matt Capps signed a one-year, $4.75 million deal with the Twins and Frank Francisco signed in Flushing for two years and $12 million. Cordero’s annual average salary figures to be in that vicinity, somewhere between $5.5-$6.5 million. For it to make sense for Cordero to forego the opportunity to close, the Phils might have to offer something like $8 million for one year, which, from many indications, is too much given the team’s proximity to the luxury tax threshold.

So while the idea of Cordero setting up for Papelbon makes sense, it doesn’t when you take into account what Cordero is likely seeking.

The Cubs were believed to be in the running for Fielder, but Theo Epstein’s acquisition of Rizzo gives Scott Boras one fewer team to use as leverage. Boras recently met with the Nationals’ brass in Washington D.C. about Fielder, and according to multiple sources, the strong contenders for Fielder prior to the Rizzo trade were the Nats, Cubs, Mariners and Rangers. Removing one team from the equation could significantly change the terms of a Fielder deal and the aggressiveness of the still-interested parties.

Fielder would be an obvious boost to the Nationals, who could threaten in the NL East even without him in 2012. Fielder the last three years has been worth just over five wins above replacement, and the man he’d be replacing, Adam LaRoche, was worse than replacement-level in 2011. The trio of LaRoche, Chris Marrero and Matt Stairs were worth 1.5 wins below replacement last season, with Mike Morse getting the lion’s share of work at first base. If Fielder signs, Morse would move to a corner outfield spot, and if Morse maintains his offensive dominance from 2011 the Nationals would figure to net five-to-seven wins.

Fielder would be a large-scale addition on par with the Phillies’ signing of Cliff Lee last winter. It would be a move that could redirect the course of the National League East over the next handful of seasons.

What removes the Cubs from the Fielder sweepstakes is Rizzo’s big-league readiness – in 2011 he hit .331/.404/.652 with 26 homers and 101 RBIs in just 413 plate appearances for Triple-A Tucson. He struggled mightily for the Padres, hitting .141 with one home run in 153 plate appearances, and some have questioned whether or not his bat speed can play at the major league level.

But keep in mind that San Diego’s PETCO Park is death to lefthanded batters. According to StatCorner.com, lefties hit home runs with 41 percent less frequency at PETCO than everywhere else. At Wrigley Field, lefties hit home runs 19 percent more than the league-average park, making for a 60 percent swing in park factor for the power-hitting first baseman.

Bell and Reyes will make things interesting in the NL East. (Photo: Bocaratontribune.com)

Since Sept. 27, the Marlins have signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and Aaron Rowand, traded for Carlos Zambrano and re-signed Omar Infante and Greg Dobbs.

The Nationals have traded for Gio Gonzalez, signed Mark DeRosa and Mike Cameron and re-signed Chien-Ming Wang.

The Braves have made one major league move – on Halloween morning they exercised Eric Hinske’s $1.5 million option.

Exciting, right?

The Marlins are building for right now and, while it is trendy to say things like “those Nationals could contend in a few years,” the truth is that Washington is just as prepared for 2012 as it is for the Bryce Harper era.

What impact will the improvements in Miami and D.C. have on the rest of the division?

Atlanta won 89 games in 2011, when the Nationals finished 80-81 and the Marlins 72-90. The Braves were a comfortable 21-15 against the two division rivals and, after May, never had to worry about a third place teams on its heels.

That will change next season.

If key pieces like Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg can stay healthy in 2012 – a big if, seeing as how all four missed ample time in ’11 – the Nats and Marlins figure to battle with the Braves throughout the summer.

If you assume that roughly the same number of wins come out of the NL Central and NL West (where, aside from maybe the Reds and Diamondbacks, no team made moves to drastically improve itself), what does that mean for the NL East?

Could the division have four teams win 85-or-more games?

The answer is yes.

The Mets were 77-85 last season but would be lucky to win five fewer games in 2012. They’ll be playing the “nobody believes in us” card all season long, but New York doesn’t have the talent to win a season series with any of these teams.

The other side of it, the one that may not be music to the ears of Phillies fans, is that the Phils should see a handful of wins chopped off their 2011 total. Teams just don’t win 100-plus games in consecutive years. The last club to do so was the Yankees, who went an identical 101-61 in 2003 and 2004. But if you look at the context surrounding those back-to-back 101-win seasons, you see that Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Toronto were all punching bags of the Yankees and Red Sox, especially in 2004 when the unholy trinity was 215-269 (.444 winning percentage). The NL East will be much more competitive in 2012 than the AL East was in 2004.

It won’t just be the improvements of the Nationals and Marlins that cost the Phils a few wins, though. The Phillies blew just eight saves last season. The next closest NL team had 13. That number figures to increase next season because Jonathan Papelbon isn’t the only reliever capable of blowing saves. Last year’s total of eight also included saves blown in the seventh inning, the eighth inning and so on. The Phils’ obscenely low total speaks to the bullpen’s success, but also to an uncontrollable luck factor that evened out as the season wore on.

When you add it all up, the Phils will still be favored to win the National League East in 2012, and anything less than a sixth straight division crown will be a major disappointment to the organization and the city.

But if you see “93” followed by numbers like “90,” “88,” and “86” in the 2012 NL East win column, don’t be surprised.

In Zambrano, the Marlins obtain a decent, 31-year-old mid-rotation righthander. Injuries, run-ins with Cubs management and a 2010 switch to the bullpen have prevented Zambrano from reaching 170 innings more than once since 2007, but he’ll improve Miami’s rotation even if he fails to reach that mark in 2012.

Zambrano replaces Volstad, the definition of a replacement-level starter. Since 2009, only three starting pitchers to amass 400 innings have been worth fewer wins above replacement – the all-encompassing stat that uses controllable peripheral numbers to compare a player to a fungible, 4-A replacement player – than Volstad. (Those pitchers: Bronson Arroyo, Jon Garland and Kevin Correia.)

One of Miami’s biggest issues in 2011 was a lack of starting pitching once Josh Johnson went down with a season-ending injury after nine starts. Ricky Nolasco (4.67 ERA, 3.36 strikeout-to-walk ratio), Anibal Sanchez (3.67 ERA, 9.3 strikeouts-per-nine) and the recently retired Javier Vazquez held down to the fort to a certain extent, but the rest of the staff was a disaster. Fifty-four starts were given to Volstad, Brad Hand, Clay Hensley, Alex Sanabia, Jay Buente and Elih Villanueva.

That won’t be the case next season. Zambrano will round out a rotation including the returning Johnson, Nolasco and Sanchez and the always productive Mark Buehrle, making for one of the best one-through-fives in either league.

The Phillies made necessary tweaks this off-season, but reaching 97-or-so wins will be difficult based on how much the NL East has improved heading into 2012. The Marlins and Nationals will have significantly better rotations and offenses (especially if Washington signs Prince Fielder) and the Braves will be healthier. As for the Mets… Terry Collins’ club might need a healthy supply of luck to go 72-90.

But John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported Friday afternoon that the Reds haven’t even spoken with Madson’s people, and that the team prefers to bring back Francisco Cordero on a one-year deal. Cordero turned down a two-year offer from Cincy earlier this off-season, which Fay conjectures was worth approximately $14 million in total. Reds GM Walt Jocketty’s hope is to sign a closer to a cheap deal, saving money for a hitter.

Just about every bit of information in the Fay piece suggests that the Reds, like the Red Sox before them, aren’t interested in Madson.

Well, that’s an incomplete assessment. The Red Sox were, in fact, interested in Madson. But, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, it became apparent to Boston that Scott Boras was not backing off his demands for Madson, and the Red Sox could no longer wait to make a move on Andrew Bailey with the Rangers looming.

Speaking of those Rangers, they remain a dark-horse candidate for Madson, as do the division-rival Angels. But Texas is working toward signing Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish. Exclusivity to sign Darvish cost the Rangers $51.7 million and a deal must be reached by Jan. 18. It is thought that if Texas cannot sign Darvish, it will shift gears in an attempt to sign Prince Fielder.

The Angels could sign Madson, but after the signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles is pushing $171 million on player payroll for 2012. The Pujols deal is backloaded, but his $25.4 million average annual salary is what matters for luxury tax purposes, not the varying yearly values.

The only other team that might make sense is the Cardinals, who have not been linked to Madson at all this off-season. St. Louis projects to enter 2012 with Jason Motte in the closer’s role, but as we wrote Thursday, Motte is not a highly-experienced, immovable ninth-inning pitcher. Bringing in Madson would simultaneously boost St. Louis’ options for the eighth and ninth innings. The Cardinals have gone closer-by-committee often in recent years, but that idea may have left with Tony La Russa.

Where do the Phillies fit into all of this? Is there any way they could bring Madson back on a one-year deal, allowing him to make a nice 2012 salary before testing a thinner market next winter?

There have been no links of late, but one would think Madson would take the Phils’ offer of arbitration if he had another chance (which he doesn’t). Madson’s projected salary through arbitration was $8 million, so the Phils could always offer something like $6.8-7 million if they see fit. It would probably prevent the team from signing a fifth outfielder, but Madson would be more important anyway.

A 7-8-9 combo of Antonio Bastardo, Madson and Jonathan Papelbon? If that wouldn’t be the best back-end of a bullpen in baseball, it would certainly be in the top-three.

The thought of Madson accepting a one-year deal or an offer to set up rather than close was ridiculous several months ago. But as his options continue to decrease by the day, he and Boras are approaching pride-swallowing time.

Joe Blanton, however, has a small chance of losing his starting job to Kyle Kendrick or one of the many depth-starters the Phillies signed this off-season.

It is unlikely, but if Blanton shows up to Spring Training out of shape or still feeling pain in his elbow, he could quickly become an unusable and untradeable asset.

Ricky Bottalico touched on this subject Tuesday on Comcast SportsNet’s “Phillies Hot Stove.”

“[Blanton’s] gotta come in there, prove that he’s healthy, make sure he’s coming into Spring Training at 100 percent,” Bottalico said. “If he does not do that, I think there could be problems for the Phillies. You’re basically in a situation where you may have to eat $8 million.”

Trade talks surrounded Blanton from the day after the Phillies signed Cliff Lee last winter until Blanton went on the shelf for the first time with a sore elbow. At one point, Blanton’s three-year, $24 million contract looked appealing to teams in need of a middle-of-the-rotation starter. But now, he’ll have to come back and make a handful of quality starts to generate any real trade value. Without doing so, no team will be willing to take on a significant portion of Blanton’s salary or part with an attractive enough minor leaguer to make a trade worthwhile.

“If he does come back healthy, either you give him a job as a fourth starter, or you throw him out to the wolves and see what you can get for him,” Bottalico said.

Of course, it’s a bit of a catch-22, because while you can’t trade Blanton without him proving his value, if he does come back and pitch well, the Phils might not have a reason to deal him. The upcoming season is Blanton’s last under contract with the Phillies.

Bottalico thinks Blanton can bounce back, but it should be noted that Blanton wasn’t all that effective even when healthy in 2010. In that season, Blanton had a 4.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 176 innings. His control was very good, but his strike-throwing came at the expense of allowing 10.6 hits per nine innings, one full hit over his career mark. He was a bit unlucky, stranding two percent fewer baserunners than usual and seeing his balls in play drop for hits 32 percent of the time rather than 29 percent. But it wasn’t as if his high ERA could have been blamed solely on misfortune.

Blanton has been with the Phils since midway through the 2008 season, but he is still one of the toughest players to predict moving forward. His National League resume includes one impressive season in which he struck out five percent more batters than ever before (2009), one slightly less than mediocre year (2010) and one season riddled with injuries (2011).

What stood out during that 2009 season was Blanton’s changeup. Whether it was the result of a full season under changeup-maven Rich Dubee or just a fluke, Blanton that year saved 1.98 runs on every 100 changeups. Since the start of 2010, the pitch has cost Blanton 8.1 runs.

The Phils won’t need a ton from Blanton next season… 175 innings with a 4.40 ERA would suffice based on the context of Charlie Manuel’s team. Unfortunately, there is nothing to go on but “feel” when trying to predict whether he’ll reach those goals.

What is your 2012 projection for Blanton?

Though no matter where the info was gathered or how much interest Ruben Amaro has expressed in Posada’s services, this would be a questionable fit.

Posada, at 40, can no longer catch – he was behind the plate for six innings last season. Posada would be relegated to a pinch-hitting role on a bench filled with older, slower, poor fielding players. The Phils already have an experienced hitter with no true position in Jim Thome. No team can afford to spend two bench spots on players too old and worn down to field, no matter their offensive prowess.

Posada, a switch-hitter, has hit .265 with an .841 OPS against righthanded pitching since 2009, but Thome and Laynce Nix were brought in, in part, to come off the bench to face righties.

The only way a Posada signing would make sense for the Phils is if they thought he could still catch, in which case he’d be a clear offensive upgrade from Brian Schneider. But as pointed out at Brotherly Glove, the Phils could have signed Posada or Jason Varitek months ago when they chose to bring Schneider back on a cheap, one-year deal. If the interest in Posada was derived from the thought that he could catch, the Phils certainly would have taken more time deciding on a backup catcher.

Why would a team so close to making the playoffs in 2011 spend the ensuing off-season watching others around it improve and not act? Are the Braves worse off for it, or is it a case where more is less?

Let’s examine both questions…

Frank Wren and the Braves have made just one major league move this off-season.

As David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution pointed out in the comments section of one of his recent articles, the Braves have very little financial flexibility.

The Braves have saved about $12.5 million by trading Derek Lowe and mercifully reaching the end of the Kenshin Kawakami contract. Nate McLouth’s $6.5 million salary is gone, he signed with the Pirates. Atlanta saved $2 million by declining to bring back Scott Linebrink, $1.2 million by letting George Sherrill walk and another $2 million by non-tendering solid but oft-hurt reliever, Peter Moylan.

Add up all of those savings and you get $24.2 million. But raises are due to Michael Bourn, Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, Eric O’Flaherty, Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Tommy Hanson, Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman, effectively canceling out almost every dollar saved.

It is for that reason that Atlanta has been so silent in free agency, and it is for that reason that GM Frank Wren is trying so hard to trade one or both of Jurrjens and Prado.

Jurrjens and Prado are due to make a combined $9.5 million through arbitration, according to Matt Swartz’ projection system.

The Braves have enough rotation depth to sell high on Jurrjens, who had a 1.87 ERA through the second week of July until his batted ball luck ran out. Jurrjens allowed 23 earned runs in 14 starts through July 6, then allowed 27 earned runs over his final seven starts.

It is difficult to tell why the Braves want to move Prado so badly. Yes, he hit just .260 with a measly, Pedro Feliz-esque .302 on-base percentage in 2011, but the 28-year old Prado hit very well in 2008, ’09 and ’10 at six different positions. If the Braves move him for the sake of moving him, or just to save four million dollars, it’s a bad move that makes them worse in the short term.

Can Atlanta match or improve upon its 89-73 record given what has happened in the division this winter? Maybe. The Braves will theoretically get 10-12 more starts from Hanson and about 60 more games from prime bounce-back candidate, Jason Heyward. They will also have Bourn’s services in center for a full season. Atlanta’s lack of speed and historically porous base stealing prior to the Bourn trade cannot be understated… he’ll continue to make an impact.

Much will depend on the trio of Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and O’Flaherty. The back-end of Atlanta’s bullpen in 2011 was one of the best in recent memory and will need to be as successful next year to maintain the same record while playing against improved opponents.

Gio Gonzalez now resides in the NL East. (MLB.com)

Another day, another big move in the NL East. The Washington Nationals on Thursday acquired lefthanded starting pitcher, Gio Gonzalez, from the Oakland Athletics for four prospects.

Gonzalez, 26, was a one-time Phillies farmhand. The Phils obtained him as a player to be named later in the 2005 trade that sent Jim Thome to the White Sox, before sending Gonzalez back to Chicago 363 days later as part of a deal for Freddy Garcia.

In Gonzalez, the Nationals get a legitimate front-line lefty starter who is entering his prime but hasn’t made more than $420,000 in a season. His first year of arbitration will be 2012, and because he was a Super Two, Gonzalez gets an extra year of arbitration. Over the next four seasons, the Nats will get roughly 200 innings per year from a healthy Gonzalez while paying him a total of $15-20 million.

It isn’t easy for a team to pluck away a skilled, valuable, team-controlled player, much less a lefthanded starting pitcher. So in any way this trade is examined, it has to come out as a win for Washington. By adding Gonzalez, the Nats have set up a 1-2-3 punch for years to come of he, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. Chien-Ming Wang and John Lannan will round out Washington’s 2012 rotation.

Acquiring the third piece of a formidable, young rotation cost the Nationals four prospects: catcher Derek Norris and starting pitchers Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole and Tom Milone.

Peacock, Cole and Norris ranked third, fourth and ninth, respectively, on Baseball America’s list of Nationals’ prospects. Cole was thought to have the best fastball on the Nats’ farm, while Milone had the top changeup and best overall control.

Norris has an already storied batting eye. He has a .403 on-base percentage in five minor league seasons and has shown 20-home run power. Norris strikes out a lot, but a high OBP and slugging percentage from a catcher is extremely valuable. For almost all of his career with the Angels, that’s what Mike Napoli was: a high-power, high-strikeout catcher who could take a walk. It all came together for Napoli in 2011 in one of the best offensive seasons a catcher has ever had relative to his active peers.

The Nats gave up decent talent to bring Gonzalez on board, but the context of the trade made it a no-brainer for GM Mike Rizzo. Washington already has a catcher of the future in Wilson Ramos, making Norris expendable. It also has a multitude of quality young pitchers, so the Peacocks and Coles of the world weren’t as important to a team trying hard to dethrone the Phillies in the NL East as was a plug and play starter.

By adding Gonzalez, the Nats will make an already tough division even more difficult for the Phils, who remain the favorites but must deal with many added threats in 2012. On top of having to face healthier versions of Josh Johnson, Stephen Strasburg, Tommy Hanson, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Wright and Ike Davis, the Phils now must deal with lefties Mark Buehrle and Gonzalez.

Don’t expect Gonzalez to make the cross-country trip and be every bit as effective as he was in Oakland, though. His ERA the past two seasons at spacious Oakland Coliseum — where balls go to die in the outfield and in massive foul territory on both base lines — is 2.63. His ERA everywhere else is 3.78.

For Gonzalez to mitigate the effects of the ballpark switch, his control will need to improve. No American League pitcher walked more batters from 2010-11 than Gonzalez.

Vance Worley's first 11 starts last season looked much different than his last 10.

There are no real reasons to expect Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels to regress in 2012. The peripherals of Lee and Hamels (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) fell in line with their ERAs last year, and in Halladay’s case, his supporting numbers actually outperformed his ERA. Doc finished with a 2.35 ERA that easily could have been 2.20.

The Phillies know what they’ll get from Halladay, Lee and Hamels. These are three pitchers with track records as defined as their pitching identities. Halladay is the craftsman with a killer instinct that supersedes the skill-set of whoever he faces. Lee is the pinpoint lefty who, when on his game, is better than anyone in the sport. Hamels is the ever-evolving “stuff” guy who transformed from a two-pitch pitcher into one with four weapons.

The question mark is Vance Worley. We spent the majority of 2011 waiting for the other shoe to drop … and it never really did. Does that mean we can expect him to roll right along in 2012?

Not quite.

After a complete game in San Francisco in late July, Worley improved to 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA. To that point Worley had a .199 opponents’ batting average, a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2-to-1 and only three home runs allowed in 11 starts.

Over his next 10 starts, Worley had a 4.18 ERA in 60 innings, allowing the opposition a .278 batting average. One looks at that and forms the opinion that Worley’s numbers regressed to his true talent level. But that isn’t exactly the case.

Worley’s K/BB ratio actually improved over those 10 starts. The 2-to-1 figure from the first 11 starts jumped up to nearly 3.5-to-1. Worley kept getting better, but we’re a results-based society so we noticed the increasing ERA rather than the 24-year-old’s developing process and prowess on the mound.

How can it be that Worley had a 2.02 ERA with mediocre command through the first 11 starts, then a 4.18 ERA with much-improved command over the next 10?

Two reasons: worse luck with fly balls and a higher line drive rate.

Through 11 starts, Worley allowed three home runs on 180 fly balls. The average home run per fly ball rate is around 10 percent, or one homer per 10 fly balls. Worley was at 1.6 percent, allowing one homer every 60 fly balls.

Worley wasn’t drinking a magic potion that made his fly balls die in the outfield. Some pitchers excel at keeping batters off-balance and jamming them, inducing weaker fly balls, but even they don’t sustain obscenely low home run per fly ball rates. Remember how good Halladay was his first year with the Phillies? His HR/FB rate that year was 11.3 percent.

Sure enough, seven of Worley’s next 60 fly balls left the yard to balance out his home run rate.

So that was reason No. 1 for Worley’s ERA increasing despite his better command. Reason No. 2 was an uptick in his line drives allowed.

Worley allowed line drives on 18 percent of balls in play through his first 11 starts. In his next 10, it was 26 percent. Line drives are the hardest balls to field because they travel and fall rapidly. Thus, line drives fall in for hits at a much greater rate than grounders or fly balls. Liners are hits, league-wide, about 73 percent of the time. Ground balls go for hits 23 percent of the time.

An eight-percent increase in line drives is significant, and was one of the root causes of Worley’s opponents’ batting average going from .199 to .278.

Despite those added homers and line drives during the second half of Worley’s season, we should be confident that he can be a successful major league pitcher moving forward. As mentioned several times, his command only got better as his 2011 season went on. His batting average on balls in play was reasonable, as was his strand rate.*

*BABIP and strand rate are usually the two telltale signs that a pitcher was lucky and/or underperformed despite his ERA. J.A. Happ is the best case in recent memory. Happ’s ERAs were always low in Philly despite every other number suggesting they should be high. Look what’s happened for Happ in Houston as things have balanced out.

Worley has shown that he can strike batters out. The league will catch up a bit to his two-seam fastball, but even when it does it is very hard for a right-handed batter to pull the trigger when it is running back across the plate. Any successful starter needs a go-to pitch. That two-seamer is a weapon.

Can we expect Worley to finish 2012 with an ERA of 3.01? No. But we shouldn’t expect him to have a 4.18 ERA, either. Something between 3.50 and 3.70 is reasonable. Any team would love that production from a cheap fourth starter.

Miami Marlins

The Phillies won 102 games last season because they were a very, very good team. You know this, we know this.

But lost in that .630 winning percentage was the simplicity of the NL East, made possible by a rash of injuries to the division’s most important players.

Hanley Ramirez missed 70 games. Jason Heyward missed 62. Ryan Zimmerman missed 61. David Wright missed 60. Jose Reyes was out for 36, Jason Bay for 39 and Ike Davis for 136. That’s 464 games missed by the best hitters on the Marlins, Nationals and Mets, and the budding superstar for the Braves.

For good measure, let’s throw in the missed starts of aces Tommy Hanson, Stephen Strasburg, Josh Johnson and Johan Santana, which add up to exactly 100.

Sure, the Phillies played a few months without Chase Utley and had the usual supply of 15-day DL trips. But they didn’t play three-quarters of a season without Roy Halladay like the Marlins did without Johnson. Or spend a half-season without Utley like the Fish did with Ramirez.

Would the Phils still have won the division in 2011 if everyone was healthy? Most likely. But the NL East is going to be one tough place to play next season, not only because of new faces but because of returning ones.

He inked Jonathan Papelbon for more than $50 million a week before any other free agent closer signed.

He locked up Ryan Howard in early 2010 when the writing was on the wall that Howard was set to be the third-best free agent first baseman in the winter of 2011.

In Dec. 2008 Amaro gave a 36-year-old Raul Ibanez three years and $31.5 million two months before the patient Nationals signed 29-year-old Adam Dunn, then an outfielder, for two years and $20 million. Bobby Abreu, coming off a superb season, signed a one-year, $5 million deal that winter. Heck, Milton Bradley, six years younger and coming off three superb seasons, signed for $1.5 million less than Ibanez.

These were all situations in which Amaro’s impatience led to immediate criticism and, in the second and third cases, rather frustrating contracts.

But when it came to the polarizing case of Jimmy Rollins this winter, Amaro exhibited enough patience to turn an easily over-payable situation into a team-friendly deal for a valuable shortstop.

As Rollins continued to push his demands for a five-year contract this winter, his looked like a scenario that could have been resolved with a three-year, $39-42 million deal and a mutual or vesting option. The Brewers, who needed both an offensive boost with Prince Fielder gone and a shortstop with Yuniesky Betancourt being Yuniesky Betancourt, looked like a natural fit. For a while it appeared that Milwaukee was in position to offer Rollins something like four years, $50 million. Based on Rollins’ comments after re-signing Saturday, it is possible the Brewers did offer something in that contractual vicinity.

But Amaro refrained from swooping in and fearfully topping Milwaukee’s offer. He waited it out, knowing that it would take an above-and-beyond offer to pry Rollins away… the kind of offer Doug Collins feared Thaddeus Young might find.

By taking it slow and eventually signing Rollins to a three-year deal worth $33 million (and a fourth-year option worth another $11 million), Amaro paid the right price for an important player when all signs pointed toward an overpay.

To put Rollins’ deal into better context, let’s look at some of the other shortstop deals given in recent years.

Jose Reyes – six years, $106 million ($17.67 million per year)
Derek Jeter – three years, $51 million ($17 million per year)
J.J. Hardy – three years, $22.25 million $7.4 million per year)
Rafael Furcal – two years, $14 million ($7 million per year)
Marco Scutaro – three years, $17 million ($5.7 million per year)
Jason Bartlett – two years, $11 million ($5.5 million per year)
Alex Gonzalez – one year, $4.25 million (two years, $8.25 million if option vests)

Rollins’ per-year terms fit in between the deals of Scutaro/Bartlett and Jeter/Reyes, and the total value of his pact is much closer to Hardy’s deal than to Jeter’s.

Remember that, for a time, $12 million per year for Rollins seemed like a certainty. After Reyes signed, $14 million began to look reasonable because it was hard to label Reyes $6 million better per year than Rollins.

But as Amaro continued to wait and the market continued to shrink, every number involved in a deal for Rollins dropped, until the Phillies found a price they were willing to pay.

And now a team that had major work to do this off-season finally has a clear picture for 2012. Plugging the holes of a 102-win team while avoiding crippling deals and saving dollars for future contracts is no small task.

Amaro’s patience made it work.

Dontrelle Willis's numbers against lefties last season were better than either of these men's.

What triggered when you heard the Phillies signed (lefty starter reliever) Dontrelle Willis? Did you start visualizing the herky-jerky, moving parts windup – a trademark that has changed out of necessity over the years – and seeing exactly how it could be so deceptive to a lefthanded hitter?

If utilized properly, Willis has a real shot to succeed as a bullpen arm. His control finally dropped to a manageable level in 2011, and for one more year than that he’s been retiring lefties at will.

Lefthanded batters have hit .178 off Willis since 2010. The deeper you dig, the more evidence you find that Willis doesn’t just have a chance to be elite in left-on-left situations… he already is.

Let’s take a look at the 2011 seasons of Willis, Antonio Bastardo and Jonny Venters against strictly lefthanded batters. Column one is batting average and column two is OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).

Column three is strikeout percentage (how many plate appearances ended in a strikeout?) and column four is walk percentage (total batters faced divided by plate appearances ending in a walk).

The final three columns are balls thrown, strikes thrown and the percentage of pitches which went for strikes.

Willis had the same opponents’ batting average vs. lefties as Venters, a better opponents’ OPS than either Bastardo or Venters, a significantly lower walk percentage and higher strike percentage.

This isn’t a comparison of Willis to two run-of-the-mill lefty relievers, it’s a side-by-side look at Willis and a pair of southpaws who stifled the league in 2011 and utterly dominated same-handed hitters. It’s a one-year sample, sure, but if the Dontrelle Experiment works at all it will be because he carried his improved command into 2012.

The skill is already there. If the utilization is on point, Willis has a chance to not only reinvent himself but emerge as one of the best at his new craft.

It would be tough for Jim Leyland's Tigers to afford

UPDATE, 4:22 pm: Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says the rumors that the Tigers were involved in talks for Rollins are untrue. Hilarious tweet from Heyman:

“Not sure where rollins/tigers rumor got going but not happening. theres only a chance in jim carrey/dumb and dumber sense”

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As with seemingly every big-name free agent nowadays, a mystery team has emerged for Jimmy Rollins’ services. Is this one legit, like it was with Cliff Lee last winter and Albert Pujols this winter? Or is it a hoax, designed by agent Dan Lozano to give off the perception of leverage?

On “Phillies Hot Stove” Tuesday on Comcast SportsNet, Jim Salisbury recounted a story from the Winter Meetings involving he, Larry Bowa and Tigers’ manager, Jim Leyland. Bowa asked Leyland “what are you doing?” and Leyland replied “We don’t have any money.”

The Tigers have so many young, cheap, team-controlled players on their roster that it may seem strange that they don’t have financial flexibility. But Detroit cut back its spending in 2011 from $134 million to $107 million.

As it stands today, Detroit has just over $90 million committed to a dozen players. After the arbitration cases of Max Scherzer, Delmon Young, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke and Don Kelly, that number will rise to almost exactly $107 million, per Matt Swartz’ arbitration projection system.

So the Tigers will already be matching last year’s payroll and that doesn’t take into account other tinkering that must be done to finalize the 25-man roster. Signing Rollins would put the Tigers well over last year’s mark and all but ensure that they do nothing else this offseason.

Realistically, the Tigers are the only team that could use a shortstop and might spend. So it made sense that dots were connected once a mystery team was mentioned.

But the more you look at it, the more it appears that this is just an example of a desperate agent trying one last time to win back leverage in a market that has completely disappeared.

During the four-year span lefties hit just .183 with a .294 on-base percentage and .268 slugging percentage off Romero. That .562 OPS from lefties meant that Romero turned all same-handed hitters into the 2011 version of Miguel Tejada or Brandon Inge. Righties fared much better, hitting .229/.399/.361. If lefties were Tejada or Inge, righties were to Romero the equivalent of Yunel Escobar or B.J. Upton.

So it made no sense that in 2011 Romero faced 70 righties to just 46 lefties. The righties destroyed Romero, going 19 for 59 with eight doubles, a homer and ten walks to just five strikeouts. Lefties, of course, struggled, going 9 for 39 (all singles) with five walks and 14 strikeouts.

The way Romero was used in 2011 was a mistake. Charlie Manuel cannot make that mistake with Dontrelle Willis.

Since 2009, the league has hit .282 with a .395 on-base percentage against the wild Willis. But those numbers are skewed because of how dreadful Willis is against righthanded batters.

Willis has walked 40 more righthanded batters than he has struck out since 2009… and has struck out 40 more lefties than he’s walked.

For Willis to adapt to a role out of the ‘pen, he cannot face righties. It’s easy to say now, but if Manuel calls upon Willis in the eighth inning of a game to face a lefthanded batter, the opposing manager could always counter with a righty pinch-hitter. Those are the scenarios Manuel needs to avoid, only bringing Willis in when it is clear that a pinch-hitter won’t be used.

History tells us that Willis against a righty is a coin-flip situation. You need better odds than that late in the game.

By trading Ben Francisco to Toronto on Monday, the Phils opened up a spot on the 40-man roster and saved the approximate $1.5 million they would have been forced to pay him through arbitration.

But the Phils could now use a righthanded hitting bench bat. And one conveniently non-tendered player is the perfect solution.

The Phils have been linked to Ryan Spilborghs in each of the last several seasons. They’ve needed an extra outfielder or righthanded bench bat and Spilborghs, when he’s on, is the prototypical fourth outfielder.

The 32-year-old Spilborghs, non-tendered by the Rockies Monday, hit. 280 with a .354 on-base percentage and a .447 slugging percentage from 2006-10 with Colorado. His OPS is significantly higher at Coors Field (.862) than everywhere else (.679), but even if that balances out to .750 with the Phils, he’s worth a look at $2 million.

Spilborghs can take pitches, hit both lefties and righties and play all three outfield positions. Foot problems made 2011 Spilborghs’ worst year, but he’s going hard at Winter Ball in Mexico in hopes of getting his career back on track.

At that aforementioned $2 million – which is what Matt Swartz projected Spilborghs would have made through arbitration — he is a relatively low-risk, high-reward option.

As John Finger pointed out yesterday, the trade of Francisco gives the Phillies only one righthanded hitting bench bat – Ty Wigginton. If Wigginton and John Mayberry start on the same day, the Phils will be in a predicament in pinch-hitting situations against a lefthanded specialist.

You gonna’ pinch-hit Michael Martinez or Wilson Valdez there?

Spilborghs would fill the need admirably.

Watch List
Another name to watch for is Reed Johnson, a lefty-crushing 35-year-old who can also play all three outfield spots. From 2008-10, Johnson (mid-.800s OPS) hit lefties extremely well. In 2011 he hit all pitching well.

Johnson is 33 months older than Spilborghs.

The most recent impact signing for the rechristened Marlins franchise was Mark Buehrle, signed Wednesday to a four-year, $58 million contract.

In Buehrle, the Fish get a seasoned pitcher who has been on the hill for at least 30 starts and 200 innings for 11 straight years. The Marlins needed a lefthanded starter to go along with a righthanded 1-2-3 of Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco, and Buehrle was the second best southpaw available through free agency.

This is a lot of money for a 32-year-old starting pitcher, but seeing as the signing probably prevents the Marlins from overpaying C.J. Wilson, the financial aspect isn’t as bad as it could be. There were reports Wednesday afternoon that the Fish had also made a six-year offer to Wilson, the de facto ace of the free agent starting pitching class. Miami was ready to sign whichever lefty agreed first.

Multiple reports had the Marlins out of the running for Wilson after signing Buehrle, but Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times wrote that Miami’s offer to the former Rangers hurler is still on the table.

Either way, the Marlins have filled a big rotational hole. Buehrle is a quick, efficient worker with five quality pitches… matchups between he and Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee could realistically result in sub-two hour games. Buehrle won’t blow hitters away or rack up strikeouts with his 85 mile per hour fastball and he isn’t an extreme groundball pitcher, but he does a good job of limiting walks. Only four active pitchers have walked fewer batters per nine than Buehrle, who is right at 2.0 for his career.

In addition to needing a lefty, the Marlins badly needed a consistent starter. Johnson has made 30 starts only once in his seven-year career and Nolasco is notoriously boom-bust – last season he allowed eight or more earned runs in a game three times and one or fewer runs nine times.

By penciling Buehrle into its rotation in place of a Chris Volstad or Wade LeBlanc, Miami should add between three to four wins to its 2012 total.