Phillies Nation

The Phillies released Dontrelle Willis on Friday.

The Phillies released Dontrelle Willis Friday morning, per the team’s official Twitter account.

Willis, who allowed five runs in 2.2 innings this Spring against 12 righties and just four lefties, was on a non-guaranteed deal.

While it was a good idea by Ruben Amaro to try to convert a deceptive pitcher on the down-swing into a left-handed specialist (lefties hit just .127 off Willis last season and .216 the year before), the plan didn’t work out as expected.

Maybe it’s for the best, as Dontrelle’s departure clears the way for a young, cheaper Phillies reliever to make the team. And Willis would have likely continued to be misused on the Phils anyway. Last season J.C. Romero faced 27 more righties than lefties. Willis is similarly ineffective against opposite-handed batters.

By cutting Willis prior to Opening Day, the Phillies save just over $700,000, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

PHOTO: AP

A stir was created when, following his 2.2-inning, 7-hit, 5-earned run start against the Twins Wednesday, Ken Rosenthal reported that Roy Halladay‘s velocity was down to 89 miles per hour. Here’s how Rosenthal told it:

One scout said Halladay topped out at 89 mph Wednesday against the Minnesota Twins, threw from a lower arm angle and lacked bite on his changeup and sinker. Another said that Halladay does not resemble the same pitcher who comes out “like gangbusters” every spring.

Rosenthal spoke to Ruben Amaro before publishing the piece and Amaro downplayed the situation, saying he wasn’t concerned.

“I’m not worried about his arm strength,” Amaro said. “He’s only throwing 89 mph. He usually throws 91 to 93. It’s really not that much different at this stage of camp.

“If it was March 25 and he was still throwing in that range and not locating, then I’d be concerned. Right now, he’s just working on command. I don’t have any concerns. He’s throwing a lot of off-speed pitches, working on his changeup, different things.”

Halladay then came out and, as Deadspin labeled it, “accused Rosenthal of throwing some [fecal matter] at the wall.”

“Yeah, I heard about that,” said Halladay. “Poor reporting on the extreme end of poor reporting. It couldn’t be further from the truth.”

Two quick points:

• Halladay’s average fastball is just over 92 mph. A drop to 89 isn’t precipitous, and furthermore, Halladay is far from a hurler who relies on velocity. His pitching blueprint is very similar to Greg Maddux‘s old approach. Command, movement and intelligence are all more critical to Halladay’s success than velocity.

• That being said, if Halladay’s fastball loses some speed we could see an increase in his foul balls, which is usually the best way to knock Doc out of a game. You get the feeling that when Halladay finally does wind down, he won’t be bashed around the yard but will instead give up a ton of foul balls that lead to longer, more successful at-bats and earlier exits.

I’ve gotten a few questions on Twitter since Wednesday from fans feeling all different levels of concern. Most are brushing it off as a one-time occurrence. Some are scared. One wrote to me that if Halladay keeps it up, the Phillies should trade Cole Hamels and start a rebuilding process.

My reaction after the initial “Uh-oh” was, “Wow, how freaking good is Halladay that this is only the first or second negative report we’ve heard about him in three years.”

Just remember the date Amaro used, March 25. Comments like these are typically forgotten, and if Halladay tops out at 89 instead of 92-94 in the final week of March, words will be twisted in a new way. But just keep 3/25 on your calendar, just in case.

If his velocity is still down, then maybe we worry.

This week on Phillies Nation TV, Pat and I dive into possible trades for Joe Blanton. The Blue Jays interest seems to have cooled but we look at whether or not moving Blanton makes sense to begin with.

We also examine Dontrelle Willis’ odds of making the team and why Charlie Manuel might be to blame for his early struggles.

Later in the show we talk teams to fear in the National League, and why Roy Halladay struggles so much in the first inning of games.

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

Chase Utley may or may not be able to go by Opening Day.

The picture got no clearer Wednesday, when Charlie Manuel said of Utley potentially playing in a Spring Training game: “It’s coming up pretty soon, it’ll be a few days yet, but then he’ll start pushing his workouts up. He’ll get going pretty soon. We’ll get him some live pitching and see where he’s at.”

But even still, Manuel’s phrasing and several signs Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com points out leave room to believe… maybe Utley won’t be ready.

Sources tell CSNPhilly that the Phillies are looking for infield help. And Salisbury points out that Freddy Galvis has played second base upwards of 30 innings in the Phils’ past five Spring Training games. Galvis figures to see more time there while Michael Martinez heals his bruised elbow.

Galvis is hitting .308 this Spring in 26 at-bats and leads the Phillies with 7 RBI. Two stats you’ll either be impressed by or say “meaningless sample” to.

He’s 22 and has played 33 games at the Triple-A level. Letting him develop offensively is the plan. He hit well, by light-hitting, glove savvy middle infielder standards, last season at Lehigh Valley… .298/.315/.324. But his OPSs from 2007-09 were .507, .588, .568, all at Single-A. In the National League in 2011, the lowest player OPS was .615 by Jason Bartlett.

So a backup plan is likely in order.

And that would be trading for a middle infielder. The name that jumps out at me is Alberto Callaspo.

Continue reading Should Phils Trade Joe Blanton for Alberto Callaspo?

Joe Blanton's trade stock: rising.

Let’s talk Joe Blanton.

Coming off a 40-inning 2011 season filled with elbow problems, the 31-year-old righty had little trade value from November-to-February. His $8.5 million salary for 2012 appeared too pricey for a pitching-hungry team to bite on, given the health risk and his impending free agency. Why trade anything of value for someone who hadn’t yet conquered injury scares at the most important part of a pitcher’s body? Why take on salary?

That was then. This is March 12. Blanton has made clear that he feels healthy, and more importantly, he has had immediate Spring success after describing the comfort in his elbow. Blanton has pitched five scoreless innings in two starts, which most of us view as a minute sample in relatively meaningless games. But scouts don’t always see things that way.

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos — one of the game’s most creative minds — was reportedly at Blanton’s start last Saturday, and sources told FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi that Anthopoulos left directly after Blanton exited the game.

Are the Blue Jays interested in Blanton? It would make sense.

Toronto’s rotation is captained by Ricky Romero, but the 2nd-through-5th starters are all question marks. Brandon Morrow has exceptional stuff and has proven he can maintain high-strikeout numbers, but a piece of his game is missing. Brett Cecil has had an up-and-down career, experiencing early success then struggling and spending time in the minors. Dustin McGowan has made four starts since 2008. Henderson Alvarez is 21 years old with the chance to be a plus-control fourth starter.

The Blue Jays need a pitcher like Blanton, a steady, reliable mid-to-back end rotation pitcher. It’s cliche to use those adjectives for Blanton, but it’s what he is… a 2.0-to-2.5 win starter from whom you know what to expect from start to start. Blanton isn’t boom-bust, he’s a 6-7 inning, 3-run pitcher. Some teams need that more than others. Toronto is one of them.

What has transpired early in the Spring is a blessing for the Phillies. Blanton being healthy and looking productive gives Ruben Amaro choices and it returns the leverage of a Blanton trade to the Phillies’ side. A few months ago, we were looking at salary relief as the best-case scenario in a trade of Blanton. Now, with another solid exhibition outing, Blanton could fetch a decent prospect and $5-7 million of freed payroll.

David Murphy wrote Monday morning that Blanton is perceived to be available by folks in baseball. Should the Phillies listen? Should they actively shop Blanton? Or should they keep a healthy Kentucky Joe for themselves?

Continue reading Could the Phils, Should the Phils Trade Blanton?

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

I’ve wanted to address this for several weeks because as more and more Phillies fans begin to understand the concept of Major League Baseball’s luxury tax, more and more tend to misunderstand it.

The luxury tax this season is $178 million, same as it was last season. It will be $178 million in 2013. In 2014, it increases to $189 million.

The luxury tax is not a salary cap. Ruben Amaro and the Phillies are not obligated to keep their payroll under $178 million. They would very much like to, because the first time you exceed it, you pay 22.5 cents for every dollar over the tax threshold.

So, for example, if the Phillies exceed the threshold this season by $3 million (spending $181MM) they would be on the hook for an additional $675,000 of “dead money.” Continue reading Settle Down About the Luxury Tax

The Nix/Wigginton platoon might not struggle like Ryan Howard in early-May of 2011, but it won't flourish like Howard in mid-June.

I think we’re all getting a bit too comfortable with the idea of Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix playing first base every day while Ryan Howard is out.

With Howard’s latest setback — which I’m glad we all realize now is a setback, even if the word “setback” isn’t used — the possibility exists that The Big Piece doesn’t return until late-June, early-July, perhaps even after the All-Star break. Just think about it… it’s an infection on an incision on his Achilles’. He’ll be in a walking boot for the next 10-or so days, and after that you’d imagine the rehab process either starts over or moves slower than it was in the opening days in Clearwater.

What it means is a whole lot more Wigginton and Nix than we originally anticipated.

Now, I for one have made it clear that I’m a believer in the first base platoon, that it’s a good idea to put two players in situations where they can succeed and refrain from playing them in scenarios where the degree of failure is high.

But what if Wigginton, who hasn’t truly had an above-average offensive season since the year the Phillies won the World Series, is just no longer effective at age 34? What if Nix, who had a .299 on-base percentage last season, doesn’t perform against right-handed pitching?

Continue reading What if the First Base Platoon Fails?

(This article is just over 1,000 words, but I promise you that they’re all worth it in understanding exactly how much money the Phillies will and can commit to Shane Victorino.)

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

A benefit to the Phillies having the second most wins in baseball since 2007 (473, the Yankees have 479) is that few players want to leave.

Going back to that first playoff season since 1993, every free agent the Phillies let walk — save for Jayson Werth — found work elsewhere because the team decided to move on.

Shane Victorino is the latest in a series of players who have expressed their desire to remain in Philadelphia, but his words were a bit more direct than most. Victorino explicitly used the words “hometown discount” this week, which was sonic beauty to Phillies fans and torture to his agents, the Levinson Brothers.

“I’m willing to give up free agency,” Victorino told ESPN’s Jayson Stark at the beginning of the final week of February. “A lot of guys won’t. In the game of baseball, free agency is what every major league player dreams of. You want to maximize your value, and of course I do, too. But what’s important to me is, I want to be here. I love playing here. My family loves the city. I love the city. So when I made that statement (to Todd Zolecki, that I’m not going anywhere), that’s what I meant.”

Victorino likely realized after those comments that no matter how badly he wants to stay in Philly, it isn’t worth making public comments and losing so much leverage. He clarified things a bit for CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury Thursday morning.

“I look at it this way, if it’s a significant difference, I have to weigh my options,” Victorino told CSNPhilly.com. “I obviously love playing in Philly. They made me who I am. That sits in the back of my mind. But I also understand there’s a window in this game. Age and time comes into play. When I say I don’t want to go anywhere — yeah, I call this home and I want to finish my career here — but we’ll see how it goes.

“I won’t say I won’t take a hometown discount, but I also will say I want to maximize my opportunity with not only what I’ve accomplished as an individual, but as part of a team.”

Victorino then made his first public request for five years, the same contractual length Jimmy Rollins sought at the outset of his own free agency.

“I’ll be 32 on the market,” said Victorino. “I can go another five years. I would think even more. I want to go until I’m 40. My agents say I can get a five-year deal on the market. Why not trust them?”

Here’s the part where we examine whether or not five years is a realistic length for Victorino.

Continue reading Phils Can Afford Victorino & Hamels, But Not a 3B

Jose Contreras may be ready for Opening Day after season-ending elbow surgery in 2011.

It seemed that every time Jose Contreras’s name was mentioned last summer, it preceded the word “setback.” That he arrived in Clearwater last week feeling good and has taken legitimate steps toward recovering from a balky elbow has been an extremely pleasant surprise for the Phillies, who suddenly have a wealth of late-inning relief options.

Contreras threw again Monday after two days of rest and signs were positive enough that there is now a chance he could be ready for Opening Day. When asked about Big Truck, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said “He’s where we hoped he’d be at, that’s always good to see.”

What does a healthy Contreras mean?

Well, should Contreras make the Phils’ Opening Day 25-man roster, he, Chad Qualls and Antonio Bastardo figure to fight for a setup role that would probably be best served going to the hottest hand or the best matchup.

A side effect of Contreras being ready for April 5 in Pittsburgh would be fierce competition for the final bullpen spot among the Phillies’ plethora of young relievers. Prior to the ink drying on Qualls’ one-year deal, it looked as though Michael Stutes and Justin De Fratus were locks for the Opening Day roster and Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont, Joel Pineiro and David Herndon would compete for the 12th spot on the pitching staff.

With Contreras healthy, Stutes, De Fratus, Schwimer, Aumont, Pineiro and Herndon would all be competing for one spot. All of this assumes the Phillies begin the season with 13 position players and 12 pitchers.

Though Contreras’s presence might stunt the short-term growth of the Phils’ young arms, this isn’t a Danys Baez-type of situation where an older, lesser option is being given a roster spot simply because of his price tag. Contreras is due $2.5 million in 2012 and either $2.5 million in 2013 or a $500,000 buyout, but when healthy he has been worth every penny.

In 2010, Contreras struck out almost four times as many batters as he walked, limited the opposition to a .249 batting average and induced a swing-and-miss on 10.5 percent of his pitches. Those were elite numbers that appeared to carry over into 2011 until elbow problems took miles per hour off Contreras’ fastball and messed with his previously pinpoint control.

Contreras’s presence at the back-end of the bullpen wasn’t something many Phillies fans were expecting in 2012, and too often since 2009 have Phillies injury updates been negative. It’s nice to get a positive report every once in a while.

Juan Pierre was voted the second-best minor-league signing of the off-season by MLB Trade Rumors.

The Phillies enter Spring Training with arguably more depth, both positionally and in the starting rotation, than any team in baseball. It doesn’t mean Ruben Amaro assembled the most talented bunch, pound for pound, but the Phils have enough quality bodies (really, Corey?) to push each other in an attempt to make the 25-man roster.

Two of Amaro’s better signings this Winter were Juan Pierre and Joel Pineiro to minor-league deals. MLBTradeRumors released its Top-10 Minor League Deals of the Off-season on Tuesday and Pierre and Pineiro checked in at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. Fronting the list is Reds left-hander Jeff Francis.

As MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes notes, Pierre has declined but is still valuable, more so than Nate McLouth or Mark Kotsay, who were each given major league deals. And Pineiro, despite his ineffectiveness in Anaheim last season, is only a season removed from posting a 2.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a 55% ground ball rate, a 3.84 ERA and 2.5 wins above replacement in the tougher league.

Before the off-season started, MLBTR recognized Pierre as the 43rd-best available free agent and Pineiro as the 46th.

Continue reading Pierre, Pineiro Were Top-3 Minor League Signings