Phillies Nation

Has Papelbon been the best free agent closer pick up? Photo (AP)

Jonathan Papelbon sits atop the Major Leagues as its saves leader, closing the door in 9 out of 9 save opportunities. Papelbon is sporting a miniscule ERA, a strikeout per inning pitched, and has provided a stop-gap solution in the back end of the bullpen.

In the off-season, Papelbon received the second-highest salary per year a closer has ever received. A lot of folks, both Phillies Nation commentators and commentors a like, were critical of the move. The money spent on Papelbon, they argued, would be better spent addressing shortstop, left field, and finding a viable fill-in for Ryan Howard at first base. And at the time, and even now, it is argued that the money spent on Papelbon would prohibit them from extending Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, and/or Hunter Pence or finding a 3rd baseman for 2013.

Yet, Papelbon has delivered. Among NL relievers whose primary job description is closer, Papelbon is tops in ERA and has yet to blow a save. While his peripherals, particularly FIP, xFIP, and K/9 IP, put him in the upper-middle class of NL closers, Papelbon has gotten the job done. Was the decision to sign Papelbon wise? Let’s compare his performance to other current closers who were available free agents in the off-season. Continue reading Hindsight, Foresight Favorable to Papelbon Acquisition

Will Herndon's absence create an opportunity for Diekman or Sanches? Photo (AP)

According to Todd Zolecki, David Herndon is headed to the DL with right elbow inflammation. Herndon has pitched to a career high 4.70 ERA but is also posting a career high in K/9 IP and low in BB/9 IP. At best, Herndon has been a reliable reliever whose peripherals (1.95 xFIP, .391 BABIP) indicate that luck has not been on his side. At worst, Herndon has been ineffective. No corresponding roster move has been announced.

My take: Herndon was showing flashes of effectiveness in some appearances but looked rocky in others. Jake Diekman (0.82 ERA in 11 IP, 17 Ks) has pitched his way into the conversation for a call-up but is a lefty. If the Phils are looking to replace Herndon with a similarly-handed pitcher, former Phil Brian Sanches (3.21 ERA in 14 IP, 12 Ks) has been pitching well for the Pigs. After a hot start, righty Phillippe Aumont is struggling (6.48 ERA in 8.1 IP, 13 Ks against 9 walks) and likely will not be considered to replace Herndon.

Halladay looked great early but received no help from the Phils' offense. Photo: AP

Roy Halladay had electric stuff early but was done in by a combination of base hits and walks, surrendering 3 ER in 7 IP on 2 BB, 6 hits, and 5 Ks. Michael Schwimer looked effective before Hunter Pence misplayed a sinking liner to right leading to two in the 9th and a 5-1 Phillies loss.

Not delivering with RISP: The Phillies went 0-6 with runners in scoring position, most notably in the first inning when back-to-back singles led to first and third no outs led to no runs.

Middle of the order does not deliver: Jimmy Rollins’ struggles continue, as he, Pence, and Victorino combined to go 0-12 from the 3-4-5 spots. Teams won’t win many games with 0-12s from the heart of their line-ups.

8 hits, 0 walks: Most important part of playing small ball? Getting on base. The Phillies did not walk tonight and it certainly limited their opportunities to score. Of those 8 hits, only Carlos Ruiz’s 2nd inning ground-rule double and Ty Wigginton’s 7th inning home run went for extra bases and only Wigginton and Juan Pierre in the first reached third base or further.

Polanco finding his swing?: Placido Polanco went 2-4 tonight with two singles. Is he getting his stroke back? Tough to tell. His first inning hit was more of the pre-2011 Polanco we’re used to seeing while his 8th inning base hit was a bit of a lucky bleeder. He’ll need to start hitting some more line drives before we’ll know for sure but he is making better contact.

The Phils look to bounce back tomorrow with Joe Blanton on the hill facing the Cubs Randy Wells at 7:05 at Citizen’s Bank Park and on the Comcast Network.

It's early but Nix and Wigginton have been among the Phils' brightest spots. Photo: AP

It’s early in the season. In fact, it’s really early, 19 games early. But one of the most surprising, and interesting, developments is the success of the first base position of the Phillies.

Perhaps success is not the word, but rather improvement. Over the Winter, I speculated that a platoon of any combination of John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Jim Thome, and Ty Wigginton may perform at or better than the level of Ryan Howard. The surprising news is: they’re doing it. Continue reading Evaluating the Success of the 1B Platoon

Galvis has lead one of the best defenses in baseball. Photo: AP

There is nothing worse for a fan than watching your team lose to a team that is, in every way shape and form on paper, the worse team. While a 2-2 split in a four game set is usually satisfactory for any ball club thousands of miles from home, the Phillies could have, and should have, swept away the lowly Padres. Yet, as Phillies’ fans, we wake up confused and wondering what can be done.

By no means is it time to raise the white flag, but it may be time to reassess what we thought we knew as fans when the season started. Here are few preseason expectations with their corresponding readjusted realities and what that means for the Phillies.

Warning: Reading this may induce banging your head into the wall in frustration and calling into talk radio yelling about the need for “run producers”. The Phils have better than anticipated pitching and defense and are seemingly wasting it. If you read through the end, hopefully I will have convinced you, Phillies Nation reader, that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel.

Continue reading The Phillies’ Mediocrity Unique in Readjusted Reality

Halladay's velocity is down, should we worry? Photo: AP

There is very little to say about Roy Halladay that hasn’t been said. Halladay is the staff ace of a staff with three aces, the go-to arm that is all but guaranteed to keep the Phils in the ballgame. Halladay was again masterful last night in a 5-2 victory. Carson Cistulli at FanGraphs wrote a truly amazing piece examining Doc’s performance last night; Halladay was able to transform himself from a masterful contact artist into a dominant strikeout reliever during his performance against a batter that rarely strikes out and with pitches that weren’t strikes.

One of the concerns heading into 2012 was that Doc’s arm was beginning to show signs of aging. I should clarify: One reporter, Ken Rosenthal, speculated that Halladay was having arm issues. Our own Corey Seidman wrote about this at length, noting that there was about a 2 MPH difference from what Halladay was throwing in camp and what he normally throws but that Ruben Amaro was not concern and neither was Halladay. Deadspin reached Halladay for comment: “Poor reporting on the extreme end of poor reporting. It couldn’t be further from the truth.”

One of the concerns in this young season, however, has been the actual decline in velocity for Halladay. Across Halladay’s repitoire, he has lost some velocity: -2 MPH for his cutter, -1.9 for his four-seamer, and -0.7. At age 34, is it time to hit the panic button? Continue reading Time To Panic About Doc’s Velocity?

Cole Hamels looked great as Phils cruise late. Photo: AP

The Phils were on the doorstep all day. The Fightins put together 8 hits and 2 walks through 6 before a little bit of luck and some good hitting put them ahead for the first time in 24.2 innings. Jimmy Rollins and Hunter Pence singled back to back and advanced to third and second respectively on a Ramon Ramirez wild pitch. A Ty Wigginton sac fly tied it before Laynce Nix put them ahead for good with a 2-out double in the 7th.  The Phils blew the barn doors off in the 8th with a Wigginton bases-clearing double and closed out a laugher 8-2.

Continue reading Nix Delivers, Phils Pile On, Preserve Great Hamels Outing

Jose Contreras may be available from the bullpen starting tomorrow. Photo: AP

Jose Contreras completed back-to-back appearances for Class A Clearwater Thursday and Friday and could be activated soon, says Paul Hagen of MLB.com. Contreras, 40, threw in five games posting an 8.31 ERA striking out 7. Those numbers, no doubt, are a bit misleading. In his Thursday outing outing, Contreras ran into some trouble, giving up 3 hits while striking out 2 in a Clearwater loss. On Friday, Contreras threw a 1-2-3 inning with one K. Contreras was reportedly in Philadelphia as of this morning and speculation of his activation has ran rampant all day. Ryan Lawrence is reporting that Contreras will travel with the team on their West Coast swing and should be activated at some point today.

With a crowded bullpen, who stays and who goes? My answer may differ from who the Phils actually select. Continue reading Who Goes, Who Stays When Contreras is Activated?

The Vanimal allowed the Mets to score early today. Photo: AP

The Metropolitans got to the Vanimal early, plating four runs in the first four innings on two home runs en route to blanking the Phils 5-0. David Wright hit a first inning bomb to straight away center on the first pitch he saw from Worley answering any questions about the health of his pinky. Lucas Duda added a two run shot in the fourth and the Mets never looked back. It’s early, but the Phillies are now 3.5 games back of the Washington Nationals and 3 games behind the Mets, with whom they wrap up a three game set with tomorrow.

Storylines:

- Good but not great: Worley surrendered 8 hits over 6 innings, which isn’t horrible, but the 4 walks added some extra pressure. Only one of the walked runners scored and one was intentional, but it was clear Worley did not have his best stuff. On the positive end, Worley struck out nearly a batter an inning (5 Ks in 6 IP).

- Power outage: The Phillies’ hardest hit ball all night was from the ageless Brian Schneider in the bottom of the second. Mets CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis made a great play that robbed Schneider of at least a double and prevented Freddy Galvis from scoring.

- Good starts, bad endings: Phillies hitters were able to start innings with a base runner three times. All six Phillies hits were singles. The Phillies managed to turn three of those singles into GIDPs.

- Nothing from the heart of the line-up?: Phils 1-5 hitters were 3-15 today (.200) and only put back-to-back hits together once (first inning).

- In a pinch? Juan Pierre’s 8th inning pinch hit single was the first for a Phillie all year. Phillies pinch hitters are now 1-9. Is it too late to call Ross Gload?

- Bullpen success: David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo combined for two excellent innings. Herndon lowered his ERA to 3.00 with an inning a third of scoreless ball with a strikeout and a hit given up. Bastardo K’ed both batters he faced.

- Bullpen failure: Mike Stutes, on the other hand, looked particularly shaky in his inning of work. A pinch-hit, one-out walk from Brian Baxter started a big 9th for the Mets. Baxter stole second and scored on a single from Ruben Tejada. Stutes walked two, allowed one hit, and gave up an earned run. It took Stutes 30 pitches (17 strikes) to get through the 9th. Stutes may be the odd man out should Jose Contreras be activated from the DL; no inside information but there will be a Phillies Nation post shortly detailing some reasoning.

The Phillies wrap up their three game set with the Mets tomorrow at 1:35 at the Bank before headed on a 10 game, West Coast Road Trip with sets against the Giants, Padres, and Diamondbacks.

Laynce Nix made just his seventh career start at first base last night. He also laid down only his fifth career sacrifice bunt attempt. There were a number of things in that sequence that made me scratch my head, perhaps the least of which was the actual Nix bunt.

As it played out in real time, I was conversing with Bill Baer (@crashburnalley) of Crashburn Alley. Bill is a man of numbers, truth and justice. I suggested the move that ended up playing out, minus the bunt, and Bill quickly pointed something out:

I was surprised but Bill was probably right: Nix is .253/.296/.450 against righties and John Mayberry Jr. .232/.313/.438. Mayberry gives you a slightly better chance of getting on base if you keep him in while Nix gives you a slightly better chance of hitting a double or HR. Since Nix was in front of Mayberry, the decision should have been predicated on what Nix could do and it should not have been a reactionary decision based on what Nix did. Perhaps the most perplexing decision of the night, having Nix bunt, was made further confusing to have Pence steal, bringing the Phillies to the exact outcome they would have had had they just let Nix take a pitch or two, had Pence run on the slower-than-normal to the plate Hanrahan, and fired away from there. Continue reading Charlie Tries Something New