Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly reports that Utley’s condition has not improved in the five days since its initial diagnosis, and the team has upped the ante, administering a cortisone shot to the ailing knee. Just like Brad Lidge, Roy Oswalt and Placido Polanco before him, Utley now has a corticosteroid trying to soothe his wound.

As Salisbury notes in his article, no improvement in five days isn’t good. It’s not necessarily catastrophic or even indicative of Utley missing regular season time, but it’s certainly not encouraging.

Talks of Michael Young are sure to kick up again, but at $16M annually through 2013, he’s not a fit unless his salary is paid nearly in full. And maybe not even then. What seems most likely is more playing time for Wilson Valdez, should Utley miss time.

Does this latest news set you to worrying yet? Were you already there? Or are you still confident that Utley will be fine in 2011, and that this will prove to be nothing but a small nuisance, a speed bump?

“It’s funny to me because everyone talks about my power numbers,” Howard said. “‘Oh, Ryan, your power numbers were down.’ I think everybody forgot I was out for a month, that I was hurt. I was right there with everybody on the leaderboard in home runs and RBIs. I don’t really think that was an issue.”

Gelb notes in the next paragraph Howard’s drop in slugging percentage from before (.528 in 407 AB) and after (.441 in 143 AB) the injury that cost him time.

Was Howard just unlucky; victim of a one-off fluke that shouldn’t hamper him in 2011? Is it a result of being pitched differently? Or, pessimistically, is Howard just declining, as early-30s sluggers are wont to begin doing? Dissection after the jump.

In the middle of last season, about two weeks prior to his injury, I noted that Ryan Howard’s power seemed diminished. Yes, even though he was slugging just below .540 at the time of that post, something seemed off. Indeed, when your career slugging percentage is closer to .600, these are the criteria by which you are judged.

It’s true, as Gelb notes, that Howard was putting more pitches in play that weren’t going over the fence. Howard has always had a particularly high BABIP, in spite of the shift, so last year’s .332 BABIP holding hands with his .276 average doesn’t necessarily foretell a tremendous drop in batting average.

One thing that does appear to be a trend, however, is the falling rate at which Howard’s fly balls are reaching the seats. Per Fangraphs, here are Howard’s home-run-to-fly-ball ratios, from his MVP campaign in 2006 through last season:

• 2006: 39.5%
• 2007: 31.5%
• 2008: 31.8%
• 2009: 25.4%
• 2010: 21.1%

Is it that he’s not squaring up the ball as well, preventing him from getting the proper charge in a pitch? Is it the the drop in fastballs seen since 2006, and the consequential rise in sliders? Using the BaseballAnalytics heatmap tool, there seems to be another potential culprit lurking.

Take a look at Howard’s slugging percentage on balls in play by the location in the strike zone at which Ryan made contact from 2008-2010, and the corresponding plots of his hits.

2008

2009

2010

The two most notable holes that seem to have developed over the past two seasons are pitches middle-in, and those down-and-away. Howard built a reputation on having extraordinary opposite-field power, being able to launch outer-half pitches into the left field bleachers with such casual effort that it was almost a bit stunning. The past two years have seen a drop in those hits.

2008

2009

2010

See what I see? Not only has the pure volume of homers to left dropped – understandable, given the lower total in 2010 with little help from the injury – but the spray has a more distinct pull feel to it, as well. That’s subjectivity at its finest, so if you don’t necessarily see the hit plots the way I see them, that’s understandable. To compensate, an interesting number I derived from the same Analytics tool: on pitches on the outside half of the plate and in the strike zone, Howard’s in-play slugging went from .852 in 2008 to 1.043 in 2009 to .796 in 2010, across a fairly consistent – if still small – sample of 137 to 159 pitches in that area those years. It’s also worth noting that, prior to his injury, Howard was slugging .784 on those outer-half pitches. Those are all big numbers, and a near-.800 SLG on anything is good, but a drop-off is noticeable.

Is it too soon to cite decline? Maybe. It could be that Howard is trying to compensate his approach to attack the shift, trying more to exploit the left side of the infield than the left side of the bleachers (an approach I prefer less than whichever one he used to help him hit 58 home runs). It could be, again, that 2010 was a one-off fluke, and Howard still has a couple of years of good power left in his bat.

Or, worst of all, Ryan Howard could be dead red in decline, with a year to go before his five-year, $125 million extension kicks in.

Let’s hope it isn’t that.

The problem that comes attached to every premier player is, of course, money. There’s no sense of panic in Hamels’s case, as he and the Phillies still maintain an arbitration-eligible year of control in 2012, but as Cole continues to perform, his price continues to go up. Among a roster that already features multiple large contracts that go beyond 2012, will the Phillies have room in the payroll for Hamels, and still be able to field a full, competitive roster?

These and other concerns discussed after the jump.

Right now, there are more pressing contractual issues for the Phillies to handle. Hamels having an extra year of control means Charlie Manuel, Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson get more attention in their respective potential walk years. We can expect Manuel back, as many indications seem to be that, even as spring approaches with no new deal in hand, Cholly and the Phillies will work something out.

Cole Hamels will need to get paid soon. What's his worth?

As for the remaining three, some questions remain. Rollins, in the middle of what appears to be a precipitous offensive decline, is making $8.5 million in 2011. Should his bat continue to evaporate – .875, .786, .719 and .694 have been J-Roll’s OPSes since 2007 – Rollins may be perceived as a rather noticeable offensive liability. The thing that sets Rollins apart, though, has been and always will be his stellar defense. As long as he performs at an elite level at short, his disappearing bat can actually be tolerated. Compounding that issue, of course, is a lack of near-ready shortstop prospects. Right now, it’s either Rollins or a free agent in 2012, and judging by the list of projected free agents next winter, I think Jimmy is the best fit. I’d expect him back, but he’ll probably fetch $9-10 million annually. Add that to the tab.

One of Lidge/Madson will not be back in 2012. This team operates under the typical sense of bullpen management, with one pitcher designated for close games in the ninth inning, and Madson’s rising star may not fit in any other role for much longer. He’s making less than $5 million this year, and agent Scott Boras may look for something more along the lines of $7+ million per season for Madson’s next deal. This much is guaranteed: whether it’s for the Phillies or some other team, Ryan Madson will be a closer next season. If both he and Lidge leave – Lidge’s $12.5 million option for 2012 seems unlikely to be exercised at this point – there may be added financial flexibility for a new Hamels deal, but the bullpen’s depth takes a dramatic dive.

Taking a step back from the micro issues for a second, these are the positions that will be open after the World Series ends:

• Shortstop: Rollins, as mentioned.
• Left Field: Raul Ibanez‘s three-year deal expires after this season, and he’s unlikely to return.
• Starting Pitcher: If Roy Oswalt isn’t healthy, isn’t effective or is deemed too expensive for his $16M club option – for which the Phils are receiving no money from Houston – he may not be back. Or, as some light speculation suggests, he may retire.
• Bullpen Depth: Madson, Lidge, Danys Baez and J.C. Romero are in the final years of their deals (plus Lidge’s noted option). As much Doc, Lee, Cole and Joe can eat innings, the club will actually need relievers.
• Bench Depth: Including backup catcher Brian Schneider, two bench spots will likely need to be replaced. Schneider and pinch-hit specialist Ross Gload are approaching free agency.

Some spots could be filled internally, of course, but Domonic Brown looks to be the only young prospect set to be ready to contribute at a potentially high level in the next two season. Others may emerge as being potentially ready, but right now, most of the big help – Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, et. al – is multiple years away.

Bringing this all back to the issue at hand: how much can the Phillies afford to pay Hamels? Or, better yet, can they afford not to pay him? Should Hamels and the Phillies go to arbitration next February, the likelihood of a new deal is sure to decrease. Arbitration hearings are notorious for alienating players, and when they don’t, they can end up resulting in massive overpays.

Rest assured, Cole Hamels on the open market will be one of the most highly sought players in the league. Luckily, Cliff Lee‘s new contract seems to bust the conventional wisdom held in the Phillies’ front office that deals longer than three years for pitchers are taboo. Now, Lee could be the exception to the rule instead of the bearer of change, but if another exception is to be made, Hamels looks to be as prime a candidate as any. Among an aging – albeit still effective – roster, Hamels is the front-runner to be the best player on the Phillies over the next five years, Halladay and Lee included. This young, homegrown talent has already accomplished so much, and is just entering his prime. He appears in line to receive – and is, for all intents and purposes, deserving and worthy of – a five- or six-year deal worth around $90 million.

The Phillies have entered a new era; they’re willing to pay lots of money to acquire (or retain) players they see as building blocks to a championship. Before various arbitration cases, potential option pick-ups and supplemental free agent signings, the Phillies have approximately $112 million committed to 11 players in 2012, and at least $50 million to as few as two (!) players in each of the next four years. That’s a lot of money. Luckily, people want to see this team play. Citizens Bank Park will almost certainly sell out for the 200th straight time later this season, and merchandise sales never seem to slip, especially when trademarkable phrases seem to continuously come into play (see: “funner,” etc.). The Phillies will need to rely on their fanbase – hey, that’s you! – and a competitive team to be able to afford these mega-contracts. If it becomes a struggle to afford these deals, players like Hamels may leave for greener pastures. Almost literally.

Time remains for the Phillies to decide if they can afford yet another large contract on their books. In Hamels’s case, he happens to be worth it, at least as we sit here today at the dawn of a new slate of spring training games. He’s proven durable enough to make 30-plus starts per year, and effective enough to have the 15th-most strikeouts of any pitcher in his first five seasons since 1901.

Cole Hamels is good. Real good. He was drafted and groomed by the Phillies, and rewarded the club by being a key part of a championship team. He’s done his part. Will the Phillies do theirs?

I suppose it was only fitting that, in a Phillies/Reds series populated by walk-off wins, this one would need a couple of extra frames to be decided, too.

Through eight innings, Travis Wood had absolutely baffled the Phils. His performance seemed to be the latest in a string of average-or-worse lefties throwing gems against Philly hitters (at least, that’s how it looked. Whether the Phils really struggled so mightily isn’t really known for sure), but another perfect game in 2010 on top of Halladay’s and Dallas Braden’s? That seemed a bit excessive, and Ruiz seemed to agree.

With Wood’s perfecto/no-hitter attempt neatly filed away in the trash, the Phils turned their attention to actually winning the game and getting Halladay his 11th win of the season. Alas, a curious strategic decision (having Wilson Valdez bunt) failed, and Chooch would not score.

At least, not in the ninth.

In the 11th, Chooch hit another double, this time with one out. After an intentional walk to Valdez (thanks, Dusty) and a fly out from Ross Gload, Jimmy Rollins came to the plate looking to give the Phils their third straight, extra-inning walk-off win against Cincy. And he would deliver. Chooch had no problem scoring from second base here (nudge, nudge, Cholly), and the Phils prevailed. They would cap off a four-game sweep the following day, and head into the all-star break on a roll. Fitting bit of symmetry that we near our own half-way point of this countdown on a bit of a roll ourselves! Keep your eyes peeled for TM #13.

Cole Hamels’s bouncing back from a rough 2009 was one of many welcomed surprises in 2010. While a few different things were to blame for Cole’s rough ’09 – be it his slow, injured start to the year or plain old bad luck at times – there seems to have been a noticeable change in his approach and, consequently, a change in his pitches’ locations.

That’s a statement that seems sort of obvious in its elemental nature; Cole had a better season and, at its core, that was because he made better pitches. That’s something we saw throughout the 2010 season, but not something we could tangibly see in detail. Well, until now, anyway.

After the jump, let’s take a look at two of Cole’s pitches and how they differed in 2009 and 2010.

Fastball vs. LHB

A big part of Hamels’s 2010 success was his improved performance against left-handed batters. Back in 2009, lefties hit Cole at a .242/.295/.416 clip, for an about-average .711 OPS. In 2010, that line changed across the board (.196/.305/.340), showing an increased propensity for walks, but more restraint on hits and damaging extra-base hits in nearly identical sets of plate appearances.

One factor for this improvement is Hamels’s supercharged fastball. Fangraphs says Cole averaged nearly two extra MPH on his fastball for the season, a large bump up from ’09. Add to that the refinement on his cutter, and Hamels had two plus (or near-plus; the cutter improved, but isn’t quite as good yet) pitches to use against same-handed batters.

Hamels's FB vs. LHB, 2009

Hamels's FB and CUT vs. LHB, 2010

The most immediately noticeable difference is Cole’s extended plate coverage. Instead of simply relying on painting the outside corner – with the occasional jammer – Cole used his heater and cutter across the breadth of the plate, and trusting his stuff enough to throw out of the zone and have hitters chase.*

* And chase they did. Hitters swung at 29.7 percent of Cole’s out-of-zone pitches, a large increase from 2009′s 26.8 percent figure in that department

Changeup vs. RHB

Cole’s best pitch has always been just that, and rarely in his career has it let him down. While the change to RHB wasn’t exactly ineffective in 2009, Cole nevertheless changed its use when dealing with opposite-handed batters.

In 2009, opposing righties hit .256/.275/.405 against the change, with that line changing to .244/.280/.383 in 2010. Again, we see a pattern similar to that of the fastball, where Cole limited had reduced hits against, but also saw his walk tendency rise a bit in the meantime. The positive to that is that the walk rate never got to a damaging point, and a .280 opposing OBP is quite tidy.

Hamels's CH vs. RHB, 2009

Hamels's CH vs. RHB, 2010

These two alterations in approach – compounded with whatever intangible changes in attitude may or may not have occurred – Cole Hamels was able to return to his true form in 2010.

Thanks as always to BaseballAnalytics for their wonderful analytical tool.

(Originally posted Jan 25 at 10:40 pm.)

In case you missed it….

Furnished by MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com’s Top 50 Prospects list features two Phillies farmhands this season.

Top Philly prospect Domonic Brown comes in at No. 4 on Mayo’s list, behind the Angels’ Mike Trout, Rays’ Jeremy Hellickson and Nationals’ No. 1 pick Bryce Harper. First baseman Jonathan Singleton, who burst onto the scene with a strong first half in 2010, came in at No. 30.

Across Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, Brown, 23, hit .327/.391/.589 with 20 HR in 389 plate appearances. Brown retains his “prospect” – and rookie – eligibility by accruing fewer than 130 at-bats and 45 days of service before the September 1 roster expansion date. Singleton, 19, hit .290/.393/.479 with 14 HR in 450 plate appearances for Single-A Lakewood in 2010. Singleton will reportedly see time in left field this season.

Full top 50 list after the jump.

The, the ninth inning rolled around, and things began to get interesting. Placido Polanco led off by reaching on a Hanley Ramirez error. Ross Gload followed with a single off Marlins reliever Leo Nunez, and Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth chipped in with their own RBI hits to tie the game.

So, with runners on first and third with no one out, the Phillies looked primed to take the lead. A series of baserunning gaffes, however, curiously ended the threat. If you don’t want to subject yourself to the highlight video, the blow-by-blow was as follows:

• Raul Ibanez is caught between third and home on a grounder to first, one out.
• Jayson Werth is picked off second, two out.
• Domonic Brown, who reached on Ibanez’s fielder’s choice, is caught stealing second with Chooch up, three out.

So, with a combination of two mental errors and a suspect strategic decision, the Phillies had squandered a chance to take the lead in the ninth. The Marlins, looking to capitalize, had Hanley Ramirez leading off against Ryan Madson. Madson plunks Hanley, strikes out Logan Morrison as Hanley steals second, and settles in to face Marlins rookie first baseman Gaby Sanchez. Then, on a 1-1 pitch, Madson threw a fastball that Sanchez appeared to pull a should-have-been game-winning hit down the third base line.

Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. The “hit” was deemed foul, Sanchez proceeded to strike out, and Madson escaped trouble. Fittingly, Ruiz, still at-bat after being at the plate when Brown was caught stealing, led off the tenth with a laser home run, a solo shot that proved to be the deciding margin in a wacky late-inning affair. Some saw it as karmic payback (albeit a month-and-a-half late) for a Braves win against the Tigers in June that had its own curious circumstances.

Whatever the case, with a little help, the Phils had stretched out a four-game winning streak, and remained hot on Atlanta’s heels.

It started out innocently enough, with the pesky Astros coming to town to pit Bud Norris against Cole Hamels. Cole entered the game looking to bounce back from a subpar start against the Giants in his last outing, and the Phillies were just hoping to keep pace with Atlanta in the East.

As has been common throughout his career – at least, it seems – Cole had a great outing with no run support, throwing seven innings of two-run ball with eight strikeouts, but left the game trailing 2-1. The Phils had opportunities in the eighth and ninth to tie the game, but a bad caught stealing by Jimmy Rollins and a RISP flyout from Carlos Ruiz ended those chances. Things looked bleakly frustrating as the Phillies entered the bottom of the ninth, still down 2-1 with Ruiz, a pinch-hitter and Jimmy Rollins due up. Chooch and PH Mike Sweeney both grounded out to short, leaving J-Roll as the last hope.

Jimmy made up for his baserunning error by delivering a game-tying homer to right field on a 3-1 count, tying the game and kicking off what would become an epic string of extra innings.

Jose Contreras escaped a jam in the eleventh by getting a pop fly double play with two on and one out. Madson escaped similar trouble in the twelfth, retiring Michael Bourn with two on and two out. Ryan Howard struck out with the winning run on third in the fourteenth.

Well, there’s a little more to the story than that.

Howard was called out on the swing by third base umpire Scott Barry – remember him? – and was ejected right after that for tossing his bat, sending the Big Man into a frenzy. It was difficult to blame Howard for this. Sure, he probably could have stood to not toss his bat away, but Barry was obviously on a short fuse for whatever reason, mimicking Howard’s hands-on-hips initial reaction, then wasting no time in ejecting him despite the situation.

With Howard gone and the bench empty, Charlie Manuel had to get creative. He moved Raul Ibanez in from left field to play first, a position he hadn’t played since 2005, and brought in Roy Oswalt to play left field. It was pretty obvious where the balls in play were going that inning, wasn’t it? Oswalt made the most celebrated, routine fly catch in history. Ibanez made a great play at first on a Bourn bunt, and the train kept on rolling.

Unfortunately, with the bullpen and bench exhausted, Oswalt was pressed into duty with the bat in the sixteenth, after the Astros took a two-run lead in the top half. The Cinderella story ends with a weak grounder to third, but the legend lives on, as this game goes down as one of the strangest in recent memory.

Francisco hit .268/.327/.441 in 197 PA in 2010, and has a .272/.323/.471 line in 301 Philly PA since coming over with Cliff Lee from the Indians in July 2009. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2011, and his signing leaves Kyle Kendrick as the lone unsigned arb-eligible player. Francisco figures to see a bump in playing time this season, being a right-handed complement to both Raul Ibanez and top prospect Domonic Brown in left and right field, respectively.

Robinson Cano is a very good player. Chase Utley is a very good player. If you want the second-baseman who will put the ball in play more and make flashier looking plays with the glove, then you take Cano. If you want the second-baseman who will make fewer outs and save more runs defensively, then you take Utley.
…
If Utley doesn’t bounce back at the plate – while Cano maintains his production from 2010 – then we’ll need to revisit this and perhaps give the Yankee the edge. If someone wants to take up the banner for Cano right now though, I’d be glad to hear the arguments.

And Mr. Baer’s conclusion rings out resoundingly in favor of the Philly.

Right now, I take Utley without hesitation. Last year in what was a career year for Cano, he was worth 6.4 fWAR. Utley, in a career-worst year, was worth 5.2. Utley at his worst is still very close to Cano at his best — that’s just how good Utley is.

Advanced metrics favor Utley by a fair margin, especially when defense is factored in. Cano has built a reputation of making plays with a splash, flashing a strong arm or quick pivot. Utley, meanwhile, has recently been maligned for a couple of poorly timed playoff errors, but has been about as reliable a second baseman as you could find in the game today.

Really, this is a comparison of two different styles. Cano is a contact specialist with improving power, while Utley is a disciplined hitter with established (some may say declining) four-corner power.

Both players have contracts that could run as long as through the 2013 season. Here’s how they break down.

• Cano: $10M in 2011, $14M in 2012 (club option), $15M in 2013 (club option)
• Utley: $15M in 2011, 2012 and 2013 (all guaranteed, with partial no-trade and award incentives)

The biggest edge Cano has is that he’s about four years younger than Utley, so if asked which second baseman they would prefer to start a franchise with, I’m sure plenty of executives would pick Cano. Given his age and combined $6M in savings over Utley through their concurrent contract years, there’s probably enough there to sway votes.

But for one year – namely, 2011 – who would you rather have? Would you rather have Cano’s contact, and hope his power makes up for his lack of elite on-base skills, or Utley’s eye and defense, banking on a rebound from an injury-shortened 2010?

Given this is a Phillies blog, I expect the answers to lean a certain way. All the same, who’s your pick?

It sure felt like a dream when the news first broke of the Phillies’ imminent acquisition of Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. Dreams of sugarplums and a 2011 rotation highlighted by Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were kicking off the two-week countdown to Christmas with a lion’s share of bliss. Those dreams, short-lived as they were with the subsequent trading of Lee, were reignited on opening day in Washington.

7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K.

And Doc was off and running on what would become a historic season. A 1.45 ERA through his first seven starts; a perfect game May 29; nine complete games and four shutouts, including one to clinch the division; a playoff no-hitter; a Cy Young Award.

So much can be made of the awesome numbers Halladay posted: 250.2 IP, 219 K, a 2.44 ERA, a 7.3 K:BB ratio, all of which combined to form a legitimately historic season. Since 1901, there have been two pitcher seasons of 250-plus innings, 200-plus strikeouts, 30 or fewer walks with a 2.50 or lower ERA. Roy Halladay has one, Cy Young has the other. The award seems even more fitting, now.

Sure, he had his hiccups. The mess in Boston following his 130-pitch outing against the Pirates, the struggles against the Yankees, Cubs and Rockies. Hey, the guy’s human after all, which is good, because I think using a real robot would be cheating.

Even in the playoffs, Halladay was nearly unstoppable. A no-hitter against Cincinnati, a close loss against Tim Lincecum, and a tough performance with a strained groin muscle.

I could wax poetic about Halladay’s 2010 from now until kingdom come. It was everything any of us could have hoped for and more, piled on top of enormous expectations. Doc made it publicly known that he wanted to come to Philadelphia, left money on the table, crushed most of his competition, won a major award and made more history beyond that.

I can only wonder what the coming years will bring.

PAUL’S GRADE: 10

PAT GALLEN’S GRADE: 10 – He came. He saw. He conquered. Roy Halladay was everything Phillies fans dreamed of, and more. Doc put together a historical season and we were lucky enough to have witnessed it here. Thanks, Toronto.

AMANDA ORR’S GRADE: 10 – He deserves a number higher than 10.  Work horse. Complete Games. Shutouts. Perfect Game. No-hitter in the playoffs. Cy Young.  Team MVP.  What more can you ask for?

KIERAN CAROBINE’S GRADE: 10.1 - (Gotta be different).

NICK STASKIN’S GRADE: 11 – Awesome.

Romero, who made $4.5 million in 2010, is expected to take a significant paycut to rejoin the Phils. Signed during the 2007 season after being released by the Red Sox, Romero has compiled 123 strikeouts and 105 walks in 148.2 innings in red pinstripes. Though he’s enjoyed success against lefty batter in two of his three full seasons in Philadelphia, problems with righties and his control have limited his effectiveness. He is expected to be used in a specialist role.

There may have been more graceful ways to start this homage to the Mad Dog’s 2010 campaign, but none seem quite as necessarily to-the-point. It’s a reflection on the seven-year pro’s promotion from “pretty good” to “elite,” a sudden transition that we probably could have seen coming.

Still, it was a pleasant surprise. Madson, who had ERAs of 3.05 (twice) and 3.26 in the last three seasons, posted or equaled career-bests in H/9, K/9, WHIP, HR/9, BB/9 and K:BB. A rather ridiculous foot injury – sustained in a moment of frustration, kicking a chair following his appearance in a wild game in San Francisco – forced him to miss a big chunk of the season and limited his total workload to 53 innings, a career-low.

In the nine games Madson appeared in prior to the injury, things hadn’t gone so well. The strikeouts were there, but the hits (and runs) were pouring in. A 7.00 ERA was left to linger for more than two months, and that, apparently, didn’t sit very well with Madson. In the 44 innings he threw after his return from the DL, Madson’s line looked like this:

44.0 IP, 54 K, 10 BB, 1.64 ERA, with a .182/.249/.245 opponents’ batting line.

In those 46 appearances, opponents recorded earned runs on Madson just six times, and only twice in 35 August/September appearances. Paired with a buoyed Brad Lidge late in the season, Madson was almost untouchable. For comparison’s sake, stacked up against the rest of the league, here’s where some of Madson’s numbers rank among relievers with at least 50 IP last season:

• 14th in K/9 (10.87)
• 17th-lowest BB/9 (2.21)
• 8th in K:BB (4.92)
• 18th in WHIP (1.038)
• 13th in xFIP (2.89)
• The 10th most-effective changeup, according to Fangraphs. BaseballAnalytics has opponents hitting just .161/.199/.257 against it in 2010.

He may not be Mariano Rivera or Billy Wagner, but all of those ranks place him in the upper echelon of relievers for 2010. Madson’s contract expires after the 2011 season, and he’ll certainly be due for a raise. His magnificent 2010, though abbreviated, played a huge part in that. Injuries and a sluggish start to the year, paired with a regrettable injury, are the only things weighing this grade down.

GRADE: 8.6/10

MICHAEL BAUMANN’S GRADE: 8.3/10 – Just like missing 4 or more classes in a semester, breaking your foot on a chair in the middle of the season drops you a full letter grade. Outside of that, he was nothing short of spectacular.

For the second straight year, Brown was named the organization’s best, topping a list of prospects that has seen its share of turnover in recent years. Brown, who hit .327/.391/.589 in the minor leagues in 2010, is the favorite to inherit the starting right fielder’s spot for the big league club out of spring training.

Second on the list was teenaged rising star Jonathan Singleton, who turned heads with a white-hot start to his 2010 season. In fact, spots two through seven on the list are all guys who played on the Lakewood BlueClaws in 2010, further cementing that team’s stacked legacy.

Jesse Biddle, the team’s first-round draft pick this past June, debuted at number eight. None of the prospects from the Cliff Lee trade made the list.

The entire list can be found after the jump, as well as BA’s “Best Tools” picks and 2014 projected lineup.

Best Tools

Best Hitter for Average: Domonic Brown
Best Power Hitter: Jonathan Singleton
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Jonathan Singleton
Fastest Baserunner: Jiwan James
Best Athlete: Jiwan James
Best Fastball: Jarred Cosart
Best Curveball: Phillippe Aumont
Best Slider: Josh Zeid
Best Changeup: Austin Hyatt
Best Control: Justin DeFratus
Best Defensive Catcher: Tuffy Gosewich
Best Defensive Infielder: Freddy Galvis
Best Infield Arm: Freddy Galvis
Best Defensive Outfielder: Jiwan James
Best Outfield Arm: Domonic Brown

Projected 2014 Lineup

Catcher: Sebastian Valle
First Base: Ryan Howard
Second Base: Chase Utley
Third Base: Placido Polanco
Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins
Left Field: Jonathan Singleton
Center Field: Shane Victorino
Right Field: Domonic Brown

No. 1 Starter: Roy Halladay
No. 2 Starter: Cole Hamels
No. 3 Starter: Roy Oswalt
No. 4 Starter: Brody Colvin
No. 5 Starter: Jarred Cosart

Closer: Ryan Madson

While it may still be safe to say the Phillies are in their “golden age,” it’s always prudent to keep a diligent watch on the team’s future. How will the aging core of veterans hold up? Is there really anything wrong with Domonic Brown? Are Jarred Cosart and Jon Singleton for real? We can speculate all we like, but to get a professional opinion, I asked Mr. Law for his take on a few things.

Traveling back in time to June for a second, we remember the Phillies having the 27th overall pick in the Rule 4 Amateur Draft. At the time of their pick, a few high-profile picks had slipped and remained available. The Phillies bypassed those players, including LSU righty Anthony Ranudo, picking local high-school left-hander Jesse Biddle instead.

“[Ranaudo] cost twice what the Phillies were going to pay at their slot,” Law said. Ranaudo, being a Scott Boras client, came with the stigma (of sorts) of having his representation be one of the most powerful men in sports. “When you draft a Boras player, you don’t immediately get the player, you get Boras.”

For a team that deals mostly in young, projectable talent with raw tools, Biddle seemed to be the more natural fit. After signing for $1.16M, less than half of Ranaudo’s $2.55M bonus from Boston 12 picks later, and posting some solid appearances in rookie ball, Biddle looks to be a very early bargain.

That wasn’t always meant to be, though. The hometown kid has a chance to play for the local club, but he wasn’t the Phils’ first choice.

“I know for a fact the Phillies wanted [Westlake H.S. 1B/OF Christian] Yelich. If the Marlins didn’t take him a few picks before, the Phillies were going to,” Law said. Yelich, who went 23rd to Florida for $1.7M, hit .362/.400/.468 in 47 professional ABs in 2010.

As for the most popular Phillies prospect, things have been a bit rougher. Domonic Brown was recently shipped back stateside after batting an ugly .069/.182/.103 in winter ball, though in just 29 ABs. Coupled with similarly lackluster play in an equally small sample at the Big League level, this cold streak of Dom’s has caused some panic, in spite of its relative lack of meaning, but Dom’s early departure from the winter league is not all that uncommon or damning.

“It happens all the time,” Law said. “There’s nothing to worry about.

“You get these sorts of struggles with power hitters…The guy is still a top-five player. He has a swing that should produce 20-plus homers.”

At just 23, Brown is easily the youngest position player on the projected 25-man roster for 2011. His struggles, while not good, certainly don’t spell doom-and-gloom for what should be a very bright future.

“He’s so gifted, and if he were 25 or so, it may be different,” Law said. “But at 22-23, it’s far too early to think about writing him off.”

Speaking of youngsters, teenage sensation Jon Singleton turned heads this summer when he hit .423/.494/.704 for Lakewood in May, and wasn’t going to turn 19 until the middle of September.

“I like his swing,” Law said. “I think it will produce contact and power, and he has the potential to be a well-above-average Major League player.”

The big question surrounding Singleton, though, is where he’ll fit on the Big League club, should he still be around when the time comes for his promotion. Ryan Howard’s contract extension carries him through the 2016 – and possibly 2017 – season, so Singleton would need to learn a different position if he were to be ready for a call-up before age 26. Can he handle the outfield? Law thinks so.

“I like to think he can handle left field. He’s young and athletic enough.

“He could probably handle right field, too, but the Phillies probably won’t try him there because they’ll have Domonic Brown.”

So, for a couple of players, at least, the future still seems bright. As for one member of the core, things may need to change in order for him to stay on the field and stay effective.

Chase Utley has now endured two hand injuries – including one that needed surgery – and hip surgery since 2007, two vital components in a hitter’s swing and power stroke. Utley, when healthy, is likely to still be an elite player in 2011. Even when he’s been dinged up in the past, Chase has found a way to remain among the top position players in the league. As Utley turns 32 this month, his health becomes even more of a concern than it has in the past, and handling his workload becomes critical.

“Maybe he should only be playing 130-135 games in the field,” Law said. “They should take the approach that the club should decide when he gets time off, not his body, and consider giving him one game off per week, minimum.”

That strategy seems a little jolting, considering how accustomed Phillies fans have become to seeing Utley in the starting lineup every day he’s healthy, but seems prudent upon reflection. Perhaps Charlie Manuel has ridden Utley so hard because of the lack of a suitable backup in the past, but even if that remains the case in 2011, the preservation of Utley’s career should be a priority.

“I don’t know if we’re past the point of calling him a top-five player,” Law said. “But there are questions about being able to keep him on the field.

“I’d like to say he could bounce right back and have an MVP season, but I’m trying to be realistic.”

Things look a bit brighter for another star, 2010 N.L. Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay. Though Halladay will turn 34 next May, there seems to be little thought that he’ll be slowing down soon. For starters, his legendary work ethic and conditioning programs seem to have Doc set up for a continued run of success.

“He’s durable and he’s athletic, but his body control is even better than his athleticism,” Law said. “He knows and controls every muscle in his body.”

It’s not every day you hear talk of pitchers being in such advanced command not only of their stuff, but of their bodies. Halladay, in his 250.2 innings pitched this season, walked just 30 batters. He’s just the seventh pitcher since 1901 to pitch at least 250 innings in a season and walk 30 or fewer batters in the process, and it’s all a result of this sort of “total command” Doc seems to have.

Halladay and his shiny, new Cy Young Award are two of the bright spots for this coming Phillies season. In a season that’s sure to have its questions – surrounding Brown, Utley or others – and celebrations – another “H2O” year of Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt in the starting rotation – the Phillies will look to retain their hold on the N.L. East as the teams around them make moves to catch up.

You can read more from Keith Law on his Insider blog on ESPN, as well as his (mostly) weekly chat archive. You can also check out some non-baseball thoughts and musings on food, music and board games at his personal blog, The Dish. Our thanks to Keith for his time and answers.

The Winter Meetings double as a job fair. We all know that players, agents and club executives are all present for negotiations, but the jobs available aren’t restricted to the ones on the field. I spent this past season working for Baseball Info Solutions, a company that converts every single pitch from every single game of a full season into data and numbers that can be used to evaluate pitchers in new ways. Now, as I look to move forward in my career, I’m talking with clubs and teams and their representation at the Major/Minor League job fair. It isn’t glorious, and few posted jobs are for immediate work at the Major League level, but it’s already a rewarding experience.

Across the way, in the second half of the two-hotel resort, there’s even more activity. The MLB Network, MLB.com and ESPN have all set up shop for live, on-site broadcasting, delivering news when it happens from where it happens. Not only that, the sight of reporters, players, agents, managers and broadcasters is constant. Charlie Manuel made an appearance, as did White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, superagent Scott Boras, national and Phillies reporters like Ken Rosenthal and Todd Zolecki.

I’ve yet to see Cliff Lee, sadly.

There is a palpable sense of excitement all throughout the resort area. Maybe it was just me soaking in every aspect of the scene that I could, but there’s a feeling in the air not unlike the one you get when you go to your seat at an actual ballgame. The pace is frenetic, and the news is constant. Even better, nearly everyone is accessible. In the course of one day, I managed to shake hands with everyone from Giants manager Bruce Bochy to former Philly and current broadcaster Mitch Williams to ESPN columnist Keith Law (who, by the way, I should be having a conversation with for PN this week. More on that another time). The entire baseball world is here, and it’s awesome.

The coming days should, hopefully, yield even better things. I’ll be tweeting as I go, but I won’t be there to break news; I’ll leave that to the professionals. There may not be much Phillies news to break this year, at least in relation to recent offseasons (unless, of course, you consider Jeff Francoeur newsworthy), but there will still be plenty of exciting things to come, and I hope to share them with you all.

UPDATE, 8:48 pm (Pat Gallen): Mike DiGiovana of the LA Times is reporting the Phillies have interest in trading for Juan Rivera of the Angels. With LAA serious about Carl Crawford joining an already deep outfield, the 32-year old could be on his way out, and at a friendly price to the Phillies.

Rivera hit 15 home runs and knocked in 55 runs a year ago in only 124 games (455 plate appearances).  Two seasons ago he was a major power source for the Angels, hitting 25 home runs. He’s in the final year of a three year deal which will pay the outfielder $5.5 million. It’s expected the Angels would pick up some of that salary making him another decent platoon option.

They’ve already shown plenty of interest in Jeff Francouer (perhaps too much) and have been linked to Matt Diaz.

The requirement is at least 40 innings pitched, and we’ll be using run value per 100 pitches to level the playing field among starters and relievers while ranking the three best pitchers per pitch.

Fastball

1. Roy Oswalt (opponents hit .126/.184/.214)

2. Ryan Madson (.231/.314/.308)

3. Cole Hamels (.246/.307/.401)

Changeup

1. Roy Oswalt (.138/.186/.237)

2. Ryan Madson (.127/.148/.241)

3. Chad Durbin (.156/.282/.188)

Slider

1. Brad Lidge (.148/.216/.222)

2. Jose Contreras (.200/.233/.200)

3. Roy Oswalt (.289/.302/.500)

Curveball

1. Roy Halladay (.188/.213/.312)

2. Chad Durbin (.125/.160/.250)

3. Joe Blanton (.193/.202/.349)

Cutter

1. Roy Halladay (.244/.257/.373)

2. Jamie Moyer (.244/.250/.488)

3. Joe Blanton (.233/.271/.300)

For a “quilt” of sorts comparing the top three pitchers for each pitch, click the corresponding thumbnails below.

Fastballs

Changeups

Sliders

Curveball

Cutter

Some Brief Observations

- Roy Halladay will throw his cutter where he darn well pleases, thank you very much.

- The strike rates for Lidge’s slider and Oswal’t changeup are interesting, with gaping holes right down the middle.

- Oswalt’s slider being third-best with that rather ugly slash line tells you all you need to know about slider quality depth on the staff.

- The precision of both Durbin’s change and Oswalt’s slider to righties is impressive.

Having finished the year with the Phillies, Herndon is now a full-fledged member of the organization, no longer required to be on the active 25-man roster in order to be kept. For that, he deserves some recognition. Sometimes, Rule 5 picks don’t last the year, and are offered back to their original franchise, exposed to waivers, and subsequently lost. Herndon may not have had the most impressive rookie year, but doing well enough to stay up at the Show for an entire year shouldn’t be discarded entirely.

On the whole, Herndon pitched 52.1 innings with 29 strikeouts and 17 walks, inducing a big 56.9 percent groundball rate, a figure that came in 16th in all of baseball among pitchers with 50-plus IP. That’s what Herndon is: a sinkerballer who will only strike out a few more people than Kyle Kendrick, but get plenty of groundballs in the meantime. Of course, that philosophy can backfire quickly, and Herndon’s .354 BABIP against was the 12th-highest mark in baseball. Part of that was bad luck, part of it subpar stuff in some outings, but it’s clearly not all Herndon’s fault.

Herndon seems likely to start the season in Triple-A, where some talk suggests he may be stretched out to become a starter, a position he frequented in the minors before the 2009 season. Failing that, the organization may instead opt to refine his secondary stuff in the hopes of keeping him in full-time relief.

In any case, there seems to be some latent potential within Herndon. Being able to induce as many groundballs as he does is a valuable skill, and if he can somehow refine his stuff enough to increase his strikeouts even a little bit, Herndon could be quite useful. He won’t be a Madson; that just won’t ever happen, but a career of ineffectiveness is far from a foregone conclusion.

So, all that said, 2010 was far from a world-beating year for Mr. Herndon. He took his lumps, made a jump from Double-A to the Bigs and survived. I find that admirable, but that admiration can only obscure the end results so much. The numbers are simultaneously better than and worse than they appear on the surface, so it’s difficult to label just what Herndon was or forecast what he will be. Here’s to an improved 2011, David.

PAUL’S GRADE: 5.5/10

Thornton, who debuted with the Mariners in 2004 at age 27, was a nearly anonymous figure for the first four years of his career. Spending two years in Seattle before being traded to the White Sox for super-bust Joe Borchard, Thornton pitched 200 innings on the nose through 2007. He racked up 191 strikeouts in those 200 innings, but also walked 114, limiting his effectiveness.

In the last three seasons, though, something seems to have clicked with Thornton. Pitching 200.1 innings since the start of ’08, Thornton has elevated his impressive strikeout numbers – 245 of them, in fact – while drastically improving his control and walking just 59 batters. Let’s reiterate that in a cleaner fashion:

2004-07: 200 IP, 191 K, 114 BB, 1.515 WHIP
2008-10: 200.1 IP, 245 K, 59 BB, 1.028 WHIP

That’s a tremendous difference, and it makes Thornton a valuable commodity under contract for just $3M in 2011. Among pitchers who made at least 80 percent of their appearances in relief and logged 150-plus innings since 2008, Thornton ranks highly among some impressive company.

• 4th in K/9 (11.01)
• 18th in BB/9 (2.65)
• 4th in K/BB (4.15)
• 14th in HR/9 (0.58)
• 3rd in WAR (7.2)

The long and short of it is this: sometime around the 2008 season, Thornton flipped the switch and turned into an elite reliever. He’s affordable, potentially a Type B (or better) free agent after the season, and left-handed. It’s worth noting that Thornton not only held lefty batters to a measly .175/.221/.278 line in 2010, he also stifled righties to the tune of .203/.296/.288, so Thornton’s clearly no situational lefty reliever.

As for the likelihood of a deal, well, that’s another thing. There were whispers in July about the Phillies being linked to Thornton, but no real movement on that front thus far this winter. It’s entirely possible that the White Sox will hold on to Thornton as they look to contend in the perennially up-for-grabs A.L. Central, only listening to him if they fall out of contention this summer.

Whatever the case, Thornton is unlikely to cost premium talent (like Dom Brown, in spite of Thornton’s impressive numbers), and his presence would be a major boost to the Philly ‘pen; that much doesn’t seem to be in contention. The possibility of Thornton’s availability and Amaro’s interest in acquiring him, on the other hand, definitely appear to be in doubt. The fit is there, and the Phillies have what it would take to acquire Thornton, but this is a match that appears far, far away. Let’s give this a 3/10 on the Amaro Head Scale.

Right-handed relief appears to be a less pressing than lefty relief – or, depending on your faith in Antonio Bastardo, perhaps more pressing – with Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson topping the current roster, and recently re-signed Jose Contreras providing support. Bullpen depth is never a bad thing, though, and filling out the roster with effective pitchers could go a long way toward eating innings and providing solid injury replacements.

The Phils could be looking for up to three right-handed replacements for 2011. Chad Durbin is a free agent and rumored to be getting interest as a starter; David Herndon, whose Rule 5 status has expired, will likely start the year in Triple-A, possibly to be stretched out for starting; Danys Baez is Danys Baez.

Who’s out there on the free agent market that could be a fit? Let’s take a look at some players who, while not all elite or big names, could provide stability to the Philly ‘pen. Again, these are four free agents. For trade possibilities, stay tuned to our Trade Option series.

Jesse Crain

2010 Overall: 68 IP, 62 K, 27 BB, 1.176 WHIP

Crain, who has spent his entire Major League career with the Minnesota Twins, is eligible for free agency for the first time at age 29. As a Type B free agent with no closer role strings attached, Crain is likely to field offers from a variety of teams, and perhaps the Phillies should be among that group. The Colorado native saw a dramatic spike in his K/9 boost his stock entering the winter. His 8.2 K/9 in 2010 easily bests his previous season-high of 7.5 and career mark of 6.2, but Crain’s strikeouts rates have been rising pretty consistently since 2005.

Getting younger isn’t really a necessity, especially when dealing with free agents who may only be around for a year or two, but Crain’s sub-30-year-old status is sure to placate those who feel an infusion of youth is a must.

One potential red flag is a sharp drop in Crain’s BABIP – from .306 to .305 to .270 over the past three seasons – which, while certainly no crystal ball into 2011, could make his 2010 seem better than it may have actually been.

J.J. Putz

2010 Overall: 54 IP, 65 K, 15 BB, 1.037 WHIP

A huge bounce-back from a roundly disappointing 2009 campaign with the Mets has left Putz in prime position to cash in. Injury issues and ineffectiveness in the second half of the season put dents in an otherwise shiny 2010, and Putz could field interest from a number of teams. Like Crain, Putz is a Type B free agent, and as of this post’s publishing, the Diamondbacks have been rumored to have interest in obtaining Putz for ninth inning duty.

If Putz gets legitimate interest from teams in becoming a save-accumulator, the Phillies will probably miss out here. Time with the Mets aside, Putz’s big strikeout rates and relatively modest walk rates – including two sparkling 1.5 and 1.6 BB/9 figures in 2006-07 – make him out to be a superb reliever when healthy. Those health questions, though, could prove damaging for Putz’s prospects in obtaining anything longer than a two-year deal. Either way, J.J. would be an excellent get for the ‘pen. Putz turns 34 in February.

Jon Rauch

2010 Overall: 57.2 IP, 46 K, 14 BB, 1.301 WHIP

Rauch could find himself with his fourth different team in five years if he ends up leaving Minnesota, where he was traded to in 2009. Rauch has often posted solid peripheral numbers while occasionally falling victim to the long ball, numbers that paint Rauch in a better light than even his above-average ERAs might.

Rauch has seen his workloads decrease each of the past five seasons, falling from 91.1 IP in 2006 with the Nationals to 57.2 in 2010, but he doesn’t come with any alarming injury baggage and should prove durable enough to provide plenty of innings over two or three years. As Rauch turned 32 in September, his prospects for a three-year deal aren’t outstanding, though that’s something that could end up working in the Phillies’ favor.

In keeping with the pattern, Rauch is also a Type B free agent.

Scot Shields

2010 Overall: 46 IP, 39 K, 34 BB, 1.717 WHIP

A name sure to make PN’s own Corey Seidman crack a grin, Scot Shields could emerge as a prime buy-low candidate, assuming he doesn’t retire. Shields, who has not been effective over the past two seasons, posted an 8.3 K/9, 3.2 B/9 and 2.98 ERA over 622.1 IP with the Angels from 2002 to 2008. Now 35, it’s entirely possible that Shields’s days of effective relief are behind him, but assuming he maintains his health and decides to keep playing, he definitely feels worth the risk. What’s more, his lack of effectiveness in the past two seasons might reduce his asking price to the point of a minor league deal. Of course, if I’m Scot Shields and contemplating retirement, a minor league deal probably isn’t the carrot-on-a-stick that I need to motivate me. Regardless, Shields should be the most inexpensive of these four by far, and could end up providing a solid return on investment.