Phillies Nation

The Phillies have fired hitting coach Milt Thompson, according to multiple reports from Phillies beat writers.

Thompson, a .274 career hitter in 13 seasons with the Phillies, Cardinals, Braves, Astros, Rockies and Dodgers, joined the Philly coaching staff in 2003 as their first base coach, and was promoted to hitting coach the following season. The Phils, who had led the league in runs scored two of the last three seasons, leaves a Phillies team that has endured more offensive futility than it has become accustomed to. The team had hit just .253/.322/.411 entering Thursday, with those average and OBP marks good for only thirteenth and twelfth in the N.L., respectively.

Greg Gross takes over Thompson’s role in the interim.

When Ryan Howard hit his eleventh homer of the season this week against the Yankees, it marked the latest point that Howard has reached that mark in any of his four previous full seasons. Now, eleven is a bit of an arbitrary number to point out, but this occurrence merely highlights the overarching concern that Ryan Howard has, well, been a bit of a power drain.

With no word on injury, Howard’s relatively low slugging in 2010 is curious. Frankly, there’s more about Howard’s game this season that puzzles me than just his power, but seeing as the long ball is the Big Man’s calling card, it deserves a bit more scrutiny. Where have the homers gone? Why aren’t there more?

Through 64 games and 279 plate appearances, Howard has 11 home runs and 23 extra-base hits, both of which are his lowest totals through 64 games played since 2004, when he played just 19 games. Were the rest of the club not exiting one of the worst offensive slumps in recent memory, this is something that probably would have already been discussed in detail.

So, what gives? Let’s start at the top, looking at Howard’s 11 dingers. HitTrackerOnline is a site that’s nice enough to track the distance of every single ball that leaves the yard during the Major League season. To the right, Howard’s long ball landing spots are plotted out by direction and distance. Howard has established a reputation of having incredible opposite-field power, and this plot shows an intriguingly even spread across the field, in confirmation that Howard’s opposite-field ability is still there. Even with a relatively small sample, a comparison of this plot to previous years yields similarities in spread.

All right, so that relieves one area of concern. Howard doesn’t appear reliant on pulling the ball out of the park. HitTracker notes that Howard’s 11 homers this year have an average “true” distance* of 408 feet. Hey, that’s farther than I can hit a golf ball with an aluminum bat, I’m sure, and actually ranks as Howard’s second-best average distance, trailing last year’s 414-foot average mark.

*HitTracker defines “true” distance as such: “if the home run flew uninterrupted all the way back to field level, the actual distance the ball traveled from home plate, in feet.”

All right, that looks well and good, too. I suppose that leaves us with one final stone to overturn: how is Howard hitting the ball? It is within that answer that we may have found the reason for Howard’s modest homer totals.

From 2006 to 2009, Howard has had some pretty consistent percentages of ball-in-play types. His splits come out to around 38.8 percent fly balls, 37.7 percent ground balls, 22.7 percent line drives and less than one percent infield flies. This year, Howard’s fly ball percent is the lowest it’s been since 2005 – though his line drive rate is his highest by a slim margin – and an alarmingly low number of those fly balls are leaving the yard.

Since his 58-homer campaign of 2006, the percentage of Howard’s flies that have left the park have declined. From39.5 percent of flies turning into homer that MVP year, to 25.4 percent last year, to just 17.5 percent in 2010, it seems we may have found our culprit.

Why would that be the case, though? I don’t know if anyone can say for sure. Some would point to the dropping amount of fastballs he gets to hit (and the reflexive bump up in sliders seen), some would say this is mere bad luck, and others may suggest more radical things like Howard’s annual weight loss have, in turn, sapped some power away. Maybe he just needs a human jinx like me to stand up and mention it. Whatever the case may be, Phils fans can only hope that the hot summer months continue to bring out the beast in Howard, as they have in the past. Third-highest on the Phils in slugging – behind Shane Victorino, no less – is not a place most of us are accustomed to seeing Ryan.

UPDATE (6/9, 5:20 P.M.): Jim Callis of Baseball America reports that Biddle’s agreement with the Phils includes a $1.16M signing bonus, and is expected to be made official this weekend after Biddle graduates.

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6/8: Bryce Harper was the No. 1 overall pick in last night’s opening phase of the 2010 MLB Draft. This came as a surprise to no one, as his name was announced as the selection of the Washington Nationals. Unfortunately, human cloning isn’t quite to the point where 26 more Harpers were available, and so the Phillies had their homework cut out for them in deciding who to select 27th overall.

Despite the availability of some big-time names – and even a former Philly draftee – the Phillies used their 27th-overall selection on hometown product Jesse Biddle, a left-handed pitcher from Germantown Friends High School. As amateur baseball players don’t get nearly the publicity and coverage of college football and basketball players, the name “Jesse Biddle” might not mean much to many people. Here’s what we know about the newest Phillies prospect.*

* In the interest of full disclosure, I personally have yet to see Biddle pitch. His being a local product could certainly make that easier, but for now, I’ll be parsing the scouting data and opinions of those more in-tune than I.

You can find links to full, detailed scouting reports on Biddle at various places. For now, here are some quotes that should be of interest.

Phuture Phillies:

He’s a big, tall LHP with plus velocity and the chance for two average secondary pitches. He is projectable, and LHP is something the Phillies lack in their system, at least the high ceiling variety.

MLB Bonus Baby:

The first thing you’ll always hear about Biddle is how much scouts drool over his projectability, and some would compare his projectability favorably to almost any lefty in the entire 2010 prep class.

ESPN:

His upside is probably that of a #2 starter, but even for that he’ll need to develop a third pitch and show that his improved control is for real.

Project Prospect:

Terrific upside & projection, fastball should add few ticks, potential plus change.

Baseball America:

Biddle gets good downhill plane on his fastball and also throws a slower curveball in the 66-68 mph range and a 77 mph changeup with some deception.

In short, it seems like what we’re seeing with the Phillies’ pick of Biddle really isn’t a deviation from the established draft strategy of the past few years: grab a raw, projectable athlete and have faith that your system can develop him as it did Domonic Brown. It’s risky, and for every Dom Brown there are five more Anthony Hewitts, but if the risk and investment pay off, it seems the Phillies may have landed a solid pitcher late in the first round without reaching for the pick on a Hewitt or Kelly Dugan-esque level

Considering the amount of work his secondary stuff seems to need in order for him to become a Major League starter, I don’t expect to see Biddle in the Bigs anytime before late 2013. That said, it seems the Phillies have found a player they are very high on, and expect to be a contributor in the future. His progress will be exciting to follow.

Hi, Nation. I’ve been feeling a bit guilty about not having an abundance of time to contribute as often as I’ve wanted to. To make it up to you, I’m going to start an irregularly scheduled new column called “New Phrontiers,” taken off my shiny, beautiful Twitter account handle and the deceased Phrontiersman blog from which Mike and I emigrated. Within, I’ll take a look at some of the subplots of previous or future games, as well as some other details of the Phillies’ game.

Let’s get to it, then! I’m so excited!

Continue reading New Phrontiers: Contreras, Ruiz, Cosart

Raul Ibanez singled home Chase Utley in the bottom of the eighth, and Jose Contreras battled out of a jam to record his second save as the Phillies defeated the Cubs, 5-4.

Propelled by an efficient start from Joe Blanton, the Phils jumped out to a 4-1 after six, behind homers from Utley and Jimmy Rollins. From there, however, things got shaky. Chicago responded with two runs in the top of the seventh, then tied the game in the eighth when Kosuke Fukudome led off the frame with a home run to right. It was only the second hit reliever Antonio Bastardo had allowed to a lefty hitter all season.

Danys Baez immediately relieved Bastardo and retired the side in order. It was Baez’s team-leading 19th appearance out of the ‘pen, and he would pick up the win for his efforts. Why? Because in the bottom of the eighth, Utley and Rollins walked to place runners on first and second with two out for Ibanez, who poked a single to right field that scored Utley, the game’s deciding run.

Contreras would make things interesting in the ninth before closing the door. After plunking Alfonso Soriano on the 11th pitch of his at-bat, Mike Fontenot singled to put Soriano at third with none out. From there, Contreras took over, striking out Starlin Castro and pinch-hitter Aramis Ramirez and inducing a weak, foul pop-out from Geovany Soto to end the game.

Their pair of two-game series complete, the Phillies now turn their attention to the Boston Red Sox, who come to town to kick off interleague play. John Lackey will oppose Cole Hamels in the opener.

Here’s a postgame video from Pat Gallen at Citizens Bank Park:

Sometimes, every once and again, the Phillies play a game of baseball so well that all you can stand to do is smile, laugh and applaud, wherever you may be.

If tonight wasn’t one such game, one would be hard-pressed to find a better example.

Jamie Moyer, still in the prime of his life and career, pitched his first shutout since 2006 – a two-hitter with no walks, at that – and Jayson Werth hit a three-run homer as the Phillies trounced Derek Lowe and the Braves, 7-0.

Playing without three regulars, the Braves’ lineup looked quite feeble against Moyer. First baseman Troy Glaus provided the only hits of the night for Atlanta, which fell to 12-17 with the loss. Starter Derek Lowe allowed seven runs on 11 hits in just five innings, by far his worst start in Citizens Bank Park. It took Lowe 95 pitches to finish those five innings, just seven fewer hurls than it took Moyer to go the distance.

Werth kept his bat alight, hitting a three-run homer in the third and added a double later, his league-leading sixteenth. Five starters had multiple hits, and only Moyer and Shane Victorino failed to reach base on the offensive end. A crowd of 45,349 saw the show, yet another sell-out for the Phils.

All-in-all, it was a pretty good Friday night in South Philadelphia.

Saturday, Joe Blanton will make his second start of the season against Kris Medlen, who will make a spot start for the injured Jair Jurrjens.

The Phillies lost the opening game of their series against the Mets, 9-1. There was basically nothing positive about this game, except Dave Herndon. It even included Brad Lidge serving up a home run to the very first batter he faced this season! Kyle Kendrick struggled, Danys Baez ruined a 1-2-3 inning by following up with a much rougher one, and no Philly batter recorded an extra-base hit as the hitters struck out eight times. What stands out, though, is the continued lack of offensive production from the frigid Philly bats.

There are few things more irritating than watching the Phillies’ offense go into extended offensive slumps. A lineup stacked with good hitters – Utley, Howard, Werth, et. al – goes into a prolonged period of futility every year, almost without fail. Whenever the struggles come, they almost always manifest in the form of a full-team slump. No one hitter rises above the mess to salvage these ugly stretches, so it seems. Compounded by tonight’s rather embarrassing loss to the Mets at the start of a homestand, the offense’s struggles seem to have the same symptoms of past seasons’ ills, only happening a couple of months sooner.

Granted, struggles often come with some poor pitching interspersed throughout. I’ll put those aside, as we focus solely on the offensive side of things. In the end, even through the doom-and-gloom, you’ll see the silver lining.

Continue reading Lumber Slumber

So, there it is. The big debate over whether the Phillies would keep Ryan Howard or Jayson Werth has been answered with a resounding “HOWARD.” At least, for now. The big first baseman has inked a five-year extension worth about $125 million, with an option for a sixth year and a limited no-trade clause. Howard will become the only player not named Alex Rodriguez to make at least $25 million a season when the new deal kicks in for the 2012 season, at least for now.

With his current deal running through next season, the timing of this announcement comes as bit of a surprise. That notwithstanding, the new big debate immediately revolves around Howard’s worth. Is this contract an accurate projection of what Howard will accomplish from the 2012 to 2016 seasons? Remember, contracts are for production you expect, not production you’ve received. Will Ryan Howard, from age 32 to 36, be a player even more valuable than he was from 2006 to 2009? Will he be as valuable as other players being paid that much, a la Rodriguez and (presumably) Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder?

The fact is that no one knows the answer to that question, for sure. Not yet. All a person like me can do is look at the numbers and the history and make a determination for my own sake, and that determination is simple: Ryan Howard is not now and will not be worth his new contract extension.

In what will be a point/counterpoint argument, I’ll be playing the bad cop to Corey’s good cop. I’m about to tell you why this is a bad deal for the Phillies. He’ll rebuild your spirits in a post of defense to follow. There’s even some thematic music at the bottom to tap your toes to as you read.

Continue reading The Case Against the Howard Extension

Philadelphia Phillies (10-5) at Arizona Diamondbacks (6-9)

Cole Hamels (2-1, 3.86) vs. Kris Benson (0-1, 3.00)

Time: 9:40, Chase Field
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 53 (Retractable Roof Stadium)
TV: Comcast SportsNet
Twitter: @philliesnation

From one young phenom to another, the Phillies travel west to take on the Diamondbacks in the second leg of their current road trip. After defeating Jason Heyward and the Braves in Atlanta, the Phils must now set their sights on Justin Upton’s D-Backs, who will send former Lehigh Valley IronPig Kris Benson to the hill to face Cole Hamels.

After placing J.A. Happ on the disabled list Thursday, the burden on Hamels to provide a solid secondary option to Roy Halladay in the rotation seems increased. Hamels was very effective in his last outing, allowing two runs on seven hits while striking out eight in a hard luck loss to the Marlins. Plenty of people are hoping he can build on that start to hold the rotation together as Happ and Joe Blanton recover from their nicks and scrapes.

Arizona, meanwhile, enter on a cold 1-6 skid in their last seven games, weighted down by a pitching staff that sports a 5.31 ERA, twelfth in the National League. Offense certainly hasn’t been the problem, despite the young Upton’s early struggles – .186/.284/.356 for the 22-year-old through 15 games – the Diamondbacks have averaged better than five runs per game to start the year. Led by their potent infield bats, SS Stephen Drew, 2B Kelly Johnson and 3B Mark Reynolds have combined to hit 10 homers and create a noteworthy top of the Arizona lineup, though much of that goes for naught if pitching can’t seal the deal.

Current Phillies, Juan Castro and Brian Schneider included, have a combined .370/.452/.532 line against Benson, with Polanco being Benson’s standout nemesis; the old/new third baseman has tattooed Benson (albeit over just 12 PA) to the tune of .545/.583/.727 with two doubles. This will be the first time he has faced the Phillies since 2006, noting that he missed the entire 2007 season and was part of the Philly system in 2008.

LINEUP: Victorino (CF), Polanco (3B), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), Werth (RF), Francisco (LF), Castro (SS), Schneider (C), Hamels (P)

Go Phillies!

Your gameday beer: Rising Moon

A seasonal from the Blue Moon branch of Coors, Rising Moon has a hint of citrus undertone with lime taking the lead; a nice choice for the improving spring weather. It is the offshoot of a bigger, corporate brewer, so you will get some of the flavorings and finishes that are typical of such an establishment. But couple it with some meat or fish after grilling and you’ve got a solid pairing. Besides, you’re all closet Miller Lite drinkers in the end.

After a tough loss Tuesday extended their losing streak to three games, the Phillies seemed to be on a bit of thin ice. The bats had gone cold, the bullpen was looking dubious, and an early-season division lead seemed to be vaporizing before their very eyes.

Leave it to the veterans, Roy Halladay and Jamie Moyer, to turn the tides back in Philly’s favor. Jamie picked up where Roy left off Thursday, permitting seven baserunners in six innings, allowing only two to cross as unearned runs as the Phillies defeated the Braves, 8-3. Moyer, who has looked steady and solid since the first inning of his last start against the Marlins, struck out four and suffered his only blemishes in the fifth inning as a result of some defensive miscues. The bullpen finished the night with three innings of one-run ball to seal the game and the series.

The Phils passed a tough test, overcoming the vaunted pitching staff of the Braves at Turner Field in Atlanta. Utley briefly brought unpleasant flashbacks of the 2009 NLCS with a pair of errors in the fifth, but the second base stalwart collected four hits in 11 at-bats this series, and faced a series-leading 73 pitches in his 14 plate appearances. Oh, and he made a pretty nifty play in the second game, lest we forget.

Philly starters have been excellent in the time following Moyer’s frustrating first inning against the Fish. In the starters’ last 36 innings – right after that poor opening inning from Moyer’s last start – they have permitted just two earned runs (four total) with 28 strikeouts against just 22 hits and five walks. Starting pitching has certainly provided a big lift.

In injury news, the Phillies placed J.A. Happ on the Disabled List with left forearm tightness, though with the way the schedule and rotation are set up, Happ may only miss one start. Nelson Figueroa is slated to take his place on the next turn through the rotation. Placido Polanco, who was hit by a pitch Wednesday, is expected to return to the lineup Friday after sitting out the series finale against Atlanta.

Friday kicks off a western road trip, beginning in Arizona, with Cole Hamels set to toe the rubber against former Lehigh Valley IronPig Kris Benson. Game time is 9:40 p.m. eastern.