Phillies Nation

One of the toughest aspects of both being a fan and providing accurate analysis is separating perception from reality. Fans tend to anchor their opinions of a player early on, holding steadfastly to that perception even after the player improves or declines. This holds especially true for fans of a specific team, who watch the same players routinely and have difficulty acknowledging legitimate changes in their games.

It’s hard to suddenly feel confident in a player you once saw struggle mightily, just like it’s tough to remove your supreme confidence in a formerly elite player whose skills and numbers more closely resemble the middle of the pack. It takes time for these perception shifts to occur and this tends to lead to fans under- or overrating players throughout the transition.

Regardless of what we once thought about Kyle Kendrick the time has come to change that perception. Kendrick is a flat out different pitcher than he was from 2007-11, and it isn’t merely a small sample size fluke this season.

Kendrick ’07-’11: 4.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 45.6% GB, 4.41 ERA, 4.95 FIP
Kendrick ’12-’13: 6.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 46.9% GB, 3.82 ERA, 4.27 FIP

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Kendrick’s results improved as he started missing more bats. However, his results started to improve in 2011, when he spent half the season in the rotation and the other half in the bullpen. As a reliever, he had a 3.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 over 31 2/3 innings, compared to his 5.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 83 innings as a starter.

In isolating his numbers as a starter in 2011 and adding them to his 2012-13 numbers, we get the following pitching line: 6.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 46.2% GB, 3.60 ERA. Without knowing who those numbers were attached to, a fan would likely get excited at the prospect of that pitcher occupying the middle of the rotation. Yet, the perception of Kendrick is disconnected from his actual performance as a starting pitcher from 2011-13, and the time has come to give the man his due. This is a different Kyle Kendrick and that’s exactly the point.

Continue reading Giving Kendrick His Due

Young will likely help round out the Clearwater or Reading relief corps. Photo by: Scott Lucas

According to Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Phillies signed left-handed pitcher Corey Young, 26, last week to a Minor League deal with an invitation to Minor League camp. Young, a Seton Hall alum, comes to the Phillies organization after being released by the Rangers in June 2012. Young spent most of the last four seasons in Double-A Frisco where a dip in velocity from his low 3/4 arm slot contributed to him failing to maintain high strikeout rates that put him on the map as a potential Major League reliever. Young struggled to keep runners off base in Double-A (1.613 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 IP). Young is likely to start the year in either High-A Clearwater or Double-A Reading.

Mitchell has a shot, albeit a very small one, to make the Phillies out of camp in 2013. Photo: MLB.com

Unlike 2012, the Phillies enter Spring Training in 2013 with a surplus of depth in the outfield. Yet, what 2012 lacked in depth, it made up for it with talent at the top, including the now-departed Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino. The Phillies enter Spring Training with nine outfielders on their 40-man roster and two non-roster invitees competing for five spots. When the dust settles, the outfield run-off won’t be quite as exciting as last year’s battle between Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik, which was very clearly for the 25th roster spot, but of the two names invited, one may have a chance help the Phillies out.

Jermaine Mitchell

We talked briefly about Mitchell when his December signing went under the radar. Mitchell, now 28, was ranked eighth by Baseball America among A’s prospects headed into 2012, one ahead of former Phillies prospect Michael Taylor. He earned the superlatives of Fastest Baserunner and Best Defensive Outfielder but could not impress enough in his first extended shot in Triple-A Sacramento (.252/.345/.386) to earn a stint with the A’s in 2012. A bit old for the prospect side,  Mitchell latched on with the Phillies after the A’s let him go.

Continue reading 2013 Non-Roster Invitee Preview: Outfielders

Lopez will join the Phillies in Spring Training on a Minor League deal in 2013. Photo: AP

Fernando Ballesteros of Puro Béisbol first reported that right-handed veteran Rodrigo Lopez has signed a Minor League contract with an invitation to Spring Training with the Phillies. Lopez can make up to $1 million should he play with the Phillies the entire year. Lopez, 37, posted a 5.68 ERA in four games for the Cubs last year, spending most of the year in Triple-A Iowa, where he posted a 5.28 ERA in 18 games. Lopez memorably was a stopgap starter for the Phillies in 2009, earning three wins in his first four Phillies’ starts, with three quality starts.

Analysis: It never hurts to have too much pitching. Lopez fits within the budget if he gets brought to the big club, can pitch well enough to fake it in a spot start, and can clear waivers if he needs to be sent back down after a spot start. Solid but unspectacular move to bring back a cult favorite from the 2009 squad.

The Phillies made something of an effort to sign B.J. Upton and pushed hard for Angel Pagan before trading Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Twins for Ben Revere.

The move gave them a young, cost-controlled centerfielder who plays excellent defense and offers top-notch baserunning. He probably isn’t a finished product yet either, which lends credence to the belief that he could consistently produce at a 3-WAR clip as he enters his prime. The move came out of nowhere and was met with some criticism, but it was a risk worth taking if the team was opposed to doling out a lucrative, long-term contract.

One centerfielder the Phillies shied away from was Michael Bourn.

The former Phillies outfielder, who blossomed into an elite player with the Astros and Braves, was set to sign a big-time contract this offseason. Best laid plans haven’t come to fruition for Bourn, a Scott Boras client, and he remains unsigned. Granted, Boras likes to wait until late in the game, but the rumor mill has virtually dried up with respect to Bourn.

He’ll find a home somewhere but he may have to settle for a one-year deal that enables him to test the free agent market under friendlier conditions next year. If push comes to shove and that scenario plays out, should the Phillies consider him even after acquiring Revere?

Continue reading Reconsidering Michael Bourn

The Phillies filled their centerfield void by acquiring Ben Revere, bolstered the bullpen with Mike Adams and shored up the rotation with the cost-effective and underrated John Lannan. While these moves likely represent the bulk of their offseason activity, the Phillies have been linked to a wide array of corner outfielders given the obvious uncertainties in those posts.

They went hard after Cody Ross but balked at his lofty demands. They supposedly offered Josh Hamilton a short-term deal with a high average annual value. They have previously been linked to either Jason Kubel or Gerardo Parra, and that link will only grow stronger with the Snakes’ recent signing of Ross. There were reportedly discussions between the Phils and Cubs regarding Alfonso Soriano earlier in the offseason as well.

Some of these players make more sense than others, but the available corner outfielder the Phillies should stay completely away from is Vernon Wells. Unfortunately, the Phillies have expressed interest in the former Blue Jays all-star, though the extent of their interest remains unknown. Let’s hope it is nothing more than executives tossing a name around while brainstorming, because Wells has been one of the worst players in the league over the last two seasons and is signed to the very worst contract in the sport.

Continue reading Steer Completely Clear of Vernon Wells

The Diamondbacks signed Cody Ross to a three-year, $26 million deal over the weekend, giving them five starting outfielders for just three spots. With Adam Eaton set to start in centerfield and both Kubel and Ross signed to free agent deals, the Diamondbacks are more likely to trade one of their outfielders than use expensive platoons. Gerardo Parra‘s name was frequently mentioned as a possible trade target last year, when the Diamondbacks similarly signed Kubel to an outfield already including Parra, Chris Young and Justin Upton, but now it seems even more likely they make a move.

While Kevin Towers hasn’t officially put Kubel on the block, he noted that his phone didn’t stop ringing with requests for his outfielders after news of the Ross signing broke.

The Phillies were strong suitors for Ross but sources suggest they never really wanted to go beyond one or two years on a deal. If the Phils were seeking Ross’s level of productivity on a short-term and less lucrative contract, they could potentially find that in the form of the now expendable Kubel, whose numbers are quite similar over the last two seasons.

Continue reading Does Kubel Fit the Phillies?

The Phillies opened up a spot in their rotation when they traded Vance Worley for Ben Revere. They were looking to fill that spot with a low-risk free agent instead of relying on farmhands Tyler Cloyd and Jonathan Pettibone.

Definitions of risk vary but it seemed that the Phillies were looking for cheap and durable starters, valuing those attributes over pure talent and upside.

While several pitchers were available on reasonable short-term deals — Brandon McCarthy (pre-signing), Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood and Carlos Villanueva, to name a few — the Phillies signed Nationals castoff John Lannan to a one-year, $2.5 million contract. The deal could be worth upwards of $5 million through incentives. However, the deal is designed in a way that Lannan would most likely be worth $5+ million if those incentives were triggered.

The move was met with mixed reviews. Some gravitated towards the idea of having a durable pitcher with a stellar groundball rate at a minimal commitment. Others trashed it because they felt Lannan’s numbers were bad, occasionally conflating his numbers against the Phillies with his overall stats. Some were against it because they wanted the Phillies to spend more money and bring in a Marcum or McCarthy. And, of course, many people still couldn’t get past his propensity for beaning Phillies players.

I fell into the first group — those in favor of the deal.

What the Phillies did with Lannan was minimize risk at the back-end of the starting rotation. He isn’t flashy but he has been eerily consistent over the last several seasons. He is very much a known commodity and, from an expected value standpoint, there is far greater certainty in what he will provide than there is with Marcum or McCarthy.

Both of those pitchers have the potential to outperform Lannan but they are also big injury risks. They are question marks for a team that needs no more.

When judging the Phillies move along those lines, too many fans are comparing Lannan to the best case scenario of Marcum. Hearkening back to expected value, there is far more uncertainty as to what Marcum would provide, and that wasn’t worth a potential $4-$6 million premium for a team looking to minimize risk.

Continue reading John Lannan Minimizes Risk

The Phillies have long held an interest in Cody Ross and have amped up their efforts to sign him in the wake of Josh Hamilton‘s deal with the Angels. We discussed Ross’s numbers last week and found that he is really little more than a marginal upgrade over the inexpensive John Mayberry and Nate Schierholtz platoon the Phillies could have used.

Ross has some value but the advantages of using him over that platoon — saving a roster spot and adding perhaps a smidgen more consistency at the position — were not worth the additional $7-$10 million per year the Phillies would pay.

Ross could help the Phillies on a reasonable contract but he simply is not worth a three-year deal in the $24-$36 million range he is seeking.

If the Phillies are not going to make a major move, like signing Nick Swisher or trading for Mark Trumbo, they are better off sticking with some combo of Mayberry, Darin Ruf and Laynce Nix than spending what they figure to spend on Ross.

If they are dead-set on Ross, or the idea of Ross and what he brings to the table, there are cheaper alternatives: Scott Hairston, who is currently a free agent, and the aforementioned Nix, who is already on the Phillies 2013 roster at less than $2 million. Both Hairston and Nix have similar skill-sets to Ross and have been similarly valuable over the last three seasons.

Both would also enable the Phillies to utilize what they like about Ross without sacrificing financial flexibility now and into the future.

Continue reading Hairston or Nix Makes More Sense Than Ross

The Phillies have signed reliever Mike Adams to a two-year, $12 million contract, with a third-year vesting option at preusmably the same annual rate.

Adams underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in October — a literal rib-removal procedure — but expects to be ready for opening day. He has had his fair share of health issues over the years but is still very much worth the risk at $12 million over two guaranteed years. As with most vesting contracts, its design will likely mean that Adams is very much worth that extra year and $6 million if the option is triggered.

Adams, from 2008-11, was an elite major league reliever. He had videogame numbers in that span. He made 237 appearances in a setup capacity and posted the following numbers: 1.71 ERA, .235 BABIP, 2.52 SIERA, 28.3% K-rate, 6.8% BB-rate, 0.90 WHIP.

He had a K/BB ratio over 4.0, an above average groundball rate, and what looked like a legitimate skill at inducing weak contact and keeping runs off the board.

The Padres had Trevor Hoffman and Heath Bell closing games out in San Diego, while the Rangers went with Neftali Feliz, but Adams was better than all of them in this span.

Last season, Adams saw his strikeout and walk rates decline, while injuries slightly limited his action. He threw 52.1 innings and had very good numbers but it was his worst season since becoming the Adams we know and love with the 2008 Padres.

That isn’t to say he will continue to decline, or that he has lost that Mike Adams mojo, but rather that it’s important to remember that the Phillies signed the age 34-36 Adams and not the younger, peak version. He could get back to somewhere in between last year and the preceding span, but he doesn’t have to in order to justify this contract.

And that’s what makes this move solid: the Phillies didn’t, as frequently happens with relievers, pay Adams current dollars for past performance.

They didn’t sign him to the eight-figure annual salary his peak numbers likely merited. They didn’t even guarantee  three years as an enticement to accept a lower annual value. Unless doctors accidentally removed his entire ribcage, or every other team has access to detailed medical data the Phillies don’t, it’s hard to find a reason to really dislike this move.

Even the watered-down version of Adams that pitched for the Rangers last season was worth $6 million, $ per WAR be damned, since I’m not really a fan of using WAR for relievers. Now, one could argue that this is $6 million spent in an area that didn’t really need an investment, but the front office clearly wanted more stability in the bullpen. Wouldn’t you rather this than an $11 million Rafael Soriano?

The Phillies may have missed out on some big-time talent this offseason, but signing Adams to this reasonable contract was a very subtle way of improving the team in a more pronounced manner. The Phillies bullpen pitched very well after the all-star break last season, as some pitchers regressed (in the good direction) while others succeeded after being given a chance to replace dead weight. Adding Adams to that mix is exciting.

Having said that, the Phillies bullpen was pretty great after the all-star break and there are more significant needs elsewhere. If this move precludes them from upgrading in the corner outfield or rotation, then its value is reduced. However, as it currently stands, I’m choosing to evaluate it from the best case scenario standpoint as the start of more moves to come. Though if the Phillies really just signed John Lannan to be their 4th or 5th starter, then perhaps I spoke too soon with that best case scenario talk.