Phillies Nation

I didn’t actually take a vacation with Shane Victorino, but I did go on a cruise with him, Charlie Manuel, John Mayberry Jr, the Phanatic and Rich Dubee. I was surprised with a Christmas gift by my parents with this vacation, booked through AAA. It was a group of almost 400 Phillies fans on a seven day trip to the Bahamas. The destinations were Grand Turk, San Juan Puerto Rico, St Thomas, and Holland America’s private island, Half Moon Cay.

I arrived Philadelphia International Airport a day before the cruise was set to embark. At the terminal, I was greeted by dozens of people wearing Phillies apparel.

After the plane ride, where I wasn’t even able to finish the movie I was watching, we arrived at the hotel, and it was just like the airport. Phillies clothes everywhere. And there is more than one hotel in Fort Lauderdale, too. So I imagine a lot of other hotels were similar.

The next day, we arrived at the dock terminal to the sight of a sea of red. And by sea of red I mean hundreds of people wearing Phillies jerseys, hats, jackets, and pants. Now, this was curious. Why would you wear a heavy jacket in Florida? I was sweating and I was wearing a Cliff Lee shirsey and khaki shorts! Furthermore, I spotted a Brewers shirsey, a Twins hat, and fair amount of Yankees apparel. Even some Cardinals shirts. Obviously not everyone was in the AAA group with the Phillies, but come on, these people had to have felt awkward. I imagine it felt like being a Marlins fan at a Phillies-Marlins game–in Florida. But I digress.

Continue reading My Vacation With Shane Victorino

Cole Hamels enters the 2011 season as the youngest of the heralded Phillies starting rotation, having just turned 27 this past December. He’s already pitched four full seasons – plus the majority of a fifth – in the Major Leagues, and has established himself as a premier pitcher entering his prime.

The problem that comes attached to every premier player is, of course, money. There’s no sense of panic in Hamels’s case, as he and the Phillies still maintain an arbitration-eligible year of control in 2012, but as Cole continues to perform, his price continues to go up. Among a roster that already features multiple large contracts that go beyond 2012, will the Phillies have room in the payroll for Hamels, and still be able to field a full, competitive roster?

These and other concerns discussed after the jump.

Continue reading Expectations for Cole’s Next Contract

Getting eliminated from the playoffs sucks.

In the moments immediately following elimination, it’s hard to stave off feelings of bitterness, anger and disappointment. It’s hard not to run with the overwhelmingly negative emotion and rail against the closest thing. For some, that opportunity arose when Ryan Howard stared at strike three. For others, their ire was directed toward Chase Utley and his disappointing postseason. Hey, everyone copes in his or her own way, but it’s important to maintain some perspective (especially when it comes to a franchise cornerstone).

Chase Utley played in 115 games, in large part because of a thumb injury that required surgery, and, as a result, recorded some stats that were not what we’ve become accustomed to seeing. All of these stats were Chase’s fewest since 2004, when he played in just 94 games:

• 117 hits
• 20 doubles
• 2 triples
• 16 home runs
• .275 batting average
• .445 slugging percentage
• 124 OPS+
• 3.5 oWAR

So the guy is human after all, huh? No one will argue that Chase had one of his typical years, just as I’m sure few will argue that injuries and fatigue probably had their fair share of effect.

What is most certainly arguable is the notion of trading Utley. One “subpar” season – or, microscopically, one bad postseason in which Chase hit just .182/.333/.227 in 27 PA – after a run of historically good ones is no cause to call for Utley’s head.

I won’t derail this post into a defense of Utley against the trading hordes, so instead I’ll just say this: in the land of arbitrary stat endpoints, Chase Utley has had six seasons with .275/.375/.445 or better, with a 120 OPS+ or higher to boot. Only Charlie Gehringer (11), Rogers Hornsby (10) and Eddie Collins (8) have ever had more seasons meeting those criteria as a second baseman than Utley (Utley registered his sixth such season of those numbers in 2010, too, for what it’s worth), and all three of those gentlemen are Hall of Famers.

Utley didn’t have a great season, be that because of injury, fatigue, aging, slight skill decline or demonic possession, but he’s signed to an affordable deal for a player of his caliber, and he’s a face of the franchise. We can be disappointed in 2010, but we can be assured of Utley’s dedication to returning to top form in 2011.

PAUL’S GRADE: 7.3/10

PAT GALLEN: 7.2/10 – Yes, the injury injured his chance at a productive season, however the writing was already on the wall for a down year before his thumb gave out. His not-so-good playoffs didn’t help, either.

NICK STASKIN: 7.1/10 – A down year for Utley, is almost an up year for any other second baseman in baseball. If you compare this season to almost any other second baseman in MLB, it still measures up…just not to the production we are used to.

Tomorrow: Placido Polanco

The numbers certainly indicate that this could become the most prolific month in Phillies history. Using baseball-reference.com as a guide (as you all should), I found that the Phillies haven’t had a month like this in quite sometime.

In May of 1976 and in more recent times, June of 1892(!), the Phillies posted a 22-5 month. In ’76, the Phillies finished with a team-record 101 wins, which they would match the following year. The 1892 season was only an 87 win year, sorry old fellas.

Here are some other great months in Phillies history:

• July 2009: 20-7
• Sept 2008: 17-8
• April 1993: 17-5
• Sept 1983 22-7
• Sept 1980: 19-10
• Aug 1977: 22-7
• Aug 1950: 20-13, July 1950: 21-13
• Sept 1916: 22-9

But anyway, are we currently witnessing the most impressive month in Phillies history? If the Phils finish the month going 5-1, they’ll have a record of 23-4, which would be the most wins in any month ever, and maybe one of the better September/October runs in recent memory by any team.

The Colorado Rockies of 2007 stand out for a team that finished strong, and even they won’t come close. Those Rockies got steaming hot, winning 11 in a row and 14 of 15 to finish the year, and still only compiled a 20-8 September record.

If you go into the way-back machine, the ’02 Oakland A’s won 20 consecutive games in August and completed the month a ridiculous 24-4. The Phillies have an outside shot of nearing that win percentage with an incredible stretch run.

To the best of my knowledge using the internets, The Giants won 29 games in September of 1916, the most ever. The 1938 Yankees won 28 games in August of that year, the most by an AL team. Both were obviously aided by the use of doubleheaders during that time.

Whatever the case may be, you could be witnessing history yet again with this club. Depending on how they close, the 2010 Phillies could be setting themselves up for a prime run at the crown once again.

I live in Voorhees Township, in eastern Camden County in South Jersey. Around here, odd as it may sound, the arbiter of our cultural and societal zeitgeist is a chiropractor named William Nicoletto. Dr. Nicoletto is an institution–the sign out in front of his practice, as long as I can remember, has been a running commentary of our shared experience as Voorheesians. Every few days, the message is changed to a different statement on the weather, or current events, or, most often, sports. He’s such a part of the culture that when the township made road signs with movable letters illegal (they’re allowed in Gibbsboro, literally across the street from Dr. Nicoletto’s office), he was allowed an exception.

Earlier this week, with the Phillies seemingly in a free fall from playoff contention, I was driving home from work when I noticed that the sign had been changed. I submit the following without commentary.

I assume that everyone here is a Phillies fan, and has either cheered for the men in red pinstripes their entire lives or jumped on the bandwagon sometime between August 2006 and September 2008. But even though we all root for the same team, each of us has his own idiosyncratic biases about non-Phillies baseball teams. Sure, we all hate the Yankees (because everyone does), and we take special pleasure in the misfortune of Phillies rivals like the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers. But apart from that, I’d wager that our team preferences are somewhat disparate.

Now, I don’t think that having a passing interest in another team makes me a sports polygamist any more than enjoying Gemma Arterton’s brief appearance in Quantum of Solace makes me an adulterer. I enjoy baseball in all its forms, and it’s fun to have someone to cheer for when the Phillies aren’t playing.

For instance (if you’ll forgive an NFL example), I pull for the Houston Texans because their owner endowed the scholarship that paid for my college education. But if they were to play the Eagles? No doubt where my allegiances lie. My point is that we all have secondary preferences in sports for one reason or another.

With that said, I’ve started hearing rumblings. It’s mid-June, and teams are starting to figure out what their needs are, and whether they’re good enough to pursue the playoffs this year. I love trade rumors. But I heard one over the weekend, from Ken Rosenthal, Rumor Geyser, that could ruin the Phillies’ hopes at a second World Series title. Not only that, it could cause violence and lawlessness in the Phillies blogosphere and cast a black cloud over this entire half-decade of National League supremacy.

That rumor: Cliff Lee to the Yankees for prospects, possibly including 20-year-old catcher/Tokyo-wrecking radiological monster Jesus Montero.

My reaction: To become the world’s biggest Tampa Bay Rays fan.

For a city prone to sports-based mass panic, the dual trades that sent Cliff Lee to the Mariners and Roy Halladay to the Phillies occupied a special place. Like T.O. doing crunches in his driveway panic. Like Eric Lindros concussion panic. The cries of “the Phillies are too cheap to win a title” and “to hell with the prospects, I want the three-headed monster this season” seemed to blot out the sun. Even after Roy Halladay started off better than any Phillies starter in recent memory, it seemed like no number of MS Paint illustrations or French-speaking slurves from Phillippe Aumont could stem the insatiable bloodthirst of the Philly sporting public.

Now imagine the following series of newspaper lead sentences.

July 29 SEATTLE (AP)—The Mariners threw in the towel on their season this morning when GM Jack Zduriencik announced that the team had traded ace pitcher and free agent-to-be Cliff Lee to the New York Yankees for three prospects, including prize catcher Jesus Montero.

Oct. 27 NEW YORK (AP)—“It’s good to be back,” said Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard as his team arrived at Yankee Stadium for the second straight October.

Nov. 3 NEW YORK (AP)—If you can’t beat him, trade for him. Cliff Lee, the one pitcher the Yankees couldn’t solve in the 2009 World Series outdueled former teammate Cole Hamels for the second straight game to tie up the Series at 3-3. The 4-1 victory sets up a Game 7 matchup of Phil Hughes against Joe Blanton.

Let’s say Hughes beats Blanton (which he would in most cases) and the Yankees beat the Phillies in the World Series again, this time behind the one guy Philly fans wanted to keep the most. Where the Phillies were either unable or unwilling to pony up to keep Lee, the Yankees were, and were rewarded with a World Series title. The blogosphere would blow up. WIP’s switchboards would catch fire and burn down half the city. I’m imagining the scene in Mean Girls where Regina George sprinkles photocopied pages of the Burn Book down the halls of the high school, except it’s neither funny, ironic, or narrated by Lindsay Lohan.

Granted, this scenario is far from a certainty. First, the Yankees have to trade for Lee. Then, the Phillies and Yankees have to both make it back to the World Series. Then, Lee has to win two games (both against Cole Hamels, in the worst-case scenario) and the Yankees have to take the Series.

But I’d give almost anything to avoid this scenario. I wouldn’t sell my own soul, but I’d certainly sell someone else’s. Which is why I’m throwing my full karmic weight (such as it is) behind Tampa for the rest of the season, in the hope that they prevent the Yankees (either through some confluence of regular-season events or in the ALCS) from reaching the World Series. If you don’t want this to happen, you’ll do the same.

So, there it is. The big debate over whether the Phillies would keep Ryan Howard or Jayson Werth has been answered with a resounding “HOWARD.” At least, for now. The big first baseman has inked a five-year extension worth about $125 million, with an option for a sixth year and a limited no-trade clause. Howard will become the only player not named Alex Rodriguez to make at least $25 million a season when the new deal kicks in for the 2012 season, at least for now.

With his current deal running through next season, the timing of this announcement comes as bit of a surprise. That notwithstanding, the new big debate immediately revolves around Howard’s worth. Is this contract an accurate projection of what Howard will accomplish from the 2012 to 2016 seasons? Remember, contracts are for production you expect, not production you’ve received. Will Ryan Howard, from age 32 to 36, be a player even more valuable than he was from 2006 to 2009? Will he be as valuable as other players being paid that much, a la Rodriguez and (presumably) Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder?

The fact is that no one knows the answer to that question, for sure. Not yet. All a person like me can do is look at the numbers and the history and make a determination for my own sake, and that determination is simple: Ryan Howard is not now and will not be worth his new contract extension.

In what will be a point/counterpoint argument, I’ll be playing the bad cop to Corey’s good cop. I’m about to tell you why this is a bad deal for the Phillies. He’ll rebuild your spirits in a post of defense to follow. There’s even some thematic music at the bottom to tap your toes to as you read.

Continue reading The Case Against the Howard Extension

After working my ninth straight home opener, a couple things caught my eye inside Citizens Bank Park on Monday afternoon during the Phillies win over the Washington Nationals. This isn’t really a column, just some random thoughts that popped into my head over the course of the afternoon.

•When did it become cool to boo Cole Hamels?  On a team that had no pitching in 2008 he carried them to a World Series. He had a down year last year, but some of those numbers were inflated by a few awful starts. There are no making excuses for his postseason last year, but this year he has kept the team in the game both starts. Not amazing starts to say the least, but good enough to keep the Phillies in it while he works out the kinks. I really don’t want the voices of some dumb fans to get in the head of a kid with worlds of talent. Philadelphia has a knack for moving its stars, see the resumes of Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling, Allen Iverson, Charles Barkley and most recently Donovan McNabb. I’m really not prepared for the name Cole Hamels to join that list yet.

•For everybody that complains about how hard it is to get tickets to games, why don’t people use them to actually watch the game? I spoke with countless fans who couldn’t tell me anything about why Rollins was hurt, who homered for the Nats, or who came in for the out after Hamels couldn’t finish the inning. Tons of fans seemed to just chill out in Ashburn Alley or the smoking stands or even worse wait in line for Crab Fries for over an hour without even glancing onto the field for the action. Considering how tough this ticket was to get it confused me. We aren’t talking about a mid-July Wednesday afternoon game against the Reds, this was the home opener.

•After the terrible weather that normally comes with Phillies games in early April, how refreshing was Monday, as well as the rest of this week’s forecast? Perhaps Major League Baseball finally got it right, limiting home games on the East Coast.

•Was it me or was the raising of the National League Championship flag a bit uneventful? Same goes with the National League Champions ring ceremony scheduled for Thursday afternoon. Maybe 2008 spoiled me, being in the stadium as they rose the flag minutes after winning the World Series, but this kind of felt like kissing your sister. The blue flag is cool, but I think that raising a red one that reads 2010 will make everything right again.

•I don’t want the ladies to take this wrong and think that I don’t appreciate it. And I don’t want the men to think I’m trying to ruin it for the rest of them, but what is going on with the women at Citizens Bank Park? All of a sudden the stadium has the feel of a singles bar. Girls are wearing their skimpiest Chase Utley t-shirts that are cut down the cleavage to go along with the shortest of Phillies shorts that show the bottom of their butt cheeks. I’d be lying if I didn’t say I loved the scenery, but from watching these girls…and trust me, I’m watching, it sure seems like a lot of these girls are there to pick up guys rather than watch the game. What they choose to do with their ticket is on them, but seems like another case of people wasting the tickets that everyone is howling about not being able to get. I understand it only recently become cool to be a Phillies fan, and who am I to judge what these girls wear or how they act in the game, but I know I’m not the only person to notice this over the past year or so.

•As far back as I can remember, I don’t remember any player bringing this kind of excitement to Philadelphia as Roy Halladay is doing right now. I don’t even think the Eagles acquisition of Terrell Owens had the city in such joyous uproar. You couldn’t even begin to count the amount of #34 jerseys and t-shirts Monday afternoon. What is Saturday going to be like when he takes the mound for the first time at The Bank?

•Finally, after talking with numerous fans, everyone seems to have the same expectation: World Series or bust. A favorable first nine games, facing the two worst teams in the NL (depending who you ask), has definitely helped get the momentum rolling in the right direction. But where do the Phillies go without Jimmy Rollins? Upon writing of this column, the word was still “wait-and-see”, by Wednesday morning that could become a stint on the 15-day DL. Without one of the leaders on the team, it will be interesting to see how the Phillies respond as a team.

One week is in the books for the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies and I can’t remember a season starting the way this one has in a very long time.

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts that analyzes the closest competition facing the Phillies in 2010. The posts use Wins Above Replacement, a metric designed to use offensive and defensive production within a single stat. You can check out the rest of the teams in our series here.

All winter, we’ve been doing this Total WAR Project, and hearing a chorus of “We don’t care about the Cardinals, or Mariners, or Red Sox–what about the Phillies?”

Well, two days before the first pitch of the season, we can finally answer that question–what about the Phillies?–after the jump.

Continue reading Total WAR Project, Part X: Philadelphia Phillies

Florida Marlins: (87-75, second place in the N.L. East in 2009)

The Florida Marlins are truly an amazing team. They’ve got a cycle going: start out with a crap team, draft and scout well, make a few shrewd trades, win a World Series, sell everyone off, and repeat. So far, it’s worked about once every five to seven years.

In 2009, the Marlins won 87 games with a combined team salary of roughly $34.5 million, according to Cot’s Contracts. That means they paid about $397,000 per win. It’s about the cost of a house in the suburbs, but it’s far better than the Phillies’ ratio (93 wins, $127.9 million payroll, $1.375 million per win) or the World Champion Yankees (103 wins, $206.8 million payroll, $2.01 million per win). Now, I’m sure that while Marlins fans (if there are any) are proud that their team paid about 1/8 as much per win as the Yankees, they’d much rather overspend for a World Series title.

But there is something to be said for being able to scare the bejeezus out of the Phillies, Mets, and Braves every year with a bunch of homegrown prospects and reclamation projects. Their scouting department does an excellent job and Fredi Gonzalez, while I think he’s a self-important, tyrannical prick, is an excellent manager who now has won more games than any other manager in team history. While I don’t think anyone in his right mind would pick the Marlins to win the division outright, you’d have to be an idiot to underestimate them.

2010 Preview

We know that Hanley Ramirez is probably the best position player in the National League not named Pujols. We know that Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu will hit some and play terrible defense. Apart from that, the Marlins just have a slew of young players, enough that if Andrew Miller or Cameron Maybin doesn’t work out, they don’t really care.

Look for the Marlins to pitch very well. Josh Johnson might turn out to be the third-best starting pitcher in the division, and is an intimidating presence on the mound at a massive 6-foot-7, 250 pounds. He rode a mid-90s fastball and a hammer slider to a 3.03 FIP and 15 wins last year, good enough results that when MLB ordered the Marlins to go spend some money, they spent it locking up Johnson to a contract extension. He and Hanley Ramirez are the only Marlins signed beyond this year.

Another Marlin pitcher to watch out for is Ricky Nolasco. Think of him as a right-handed Cliff Lee–he was quite good in 2008 but went to the minors in 2009. He straightened out his mechanics and came back up to the majors with his problems fixed. In September and October, he struck out more than 11 batters every 9 innings, a staggering total for a starting pitcher. Look for Nolasco’s 2008-09-10 to be a less-dramatic version of Lee’s 2006-07-08 seasons.

Beyond Johnson and Nolasco, they have the team’s highest-paid player, Nate Robertson, acquired from the Tigers this spring. Of course, the Tigers are paying $9.6 million of his $10 million salary. Beyond him stand a collection of young pitchers, ranging from former No. 6 overall pick Miller (6-foot-7) to Chris Volstad (6-foot-8) to Anibal Sanchez, who’s only 6-foot but threw a no-hitter once. If this season goes south, look for the Marlins to loan their starting rotation to the Heat next year.

If you don’t know the Marlins by now, you will never never never know them–they’re going to be a young, exciting team that finishes a few games over .500 and scares the crap out of the Phillies in September. With the ascendancy of the Braves, the Phillies have a bigger chaser in their rearview mirror, but don’t sleep on the Fish, or your playoff hopes might sleep with them.

Prediction: 86-76