In the last episode of Phillies Nation TV, Pat asked why Utley hadn’t yet seen an inning in the field or a plate appearance against live pitching. It was a valid question that offered more and more room for pessimism the longer you thought about it.

Sure, resting Utley was logical. But if he was going to be OK, why not give him an inning a week or a few at-bats just to catch him up to speed? Jimmy Rollins has dealt with plenty of injuries to his lower-half and he’s been out there regularly this Spring. It just didn’t bode well and on Monday, Phillies Nation (the collective, not the site), awoke to a nightmarish scenario that may turn out to be passable, but may usher in the end of the Chase Utley era in Philadelphia.

That’s the longer-term scenario we’re looking at here. Utley is 33 with a contract that expires after next season and knees that will never get better. The last part of that sentence has been stated both subtly and explicitly by Charlie Manuel and Ruben Amaro.

Utley is missing cartilage in his knee, and as Amaro put it Monday, “you just can’t grow back cartilage.” There is likely bone-on-bone friction in Utley’s knee(s), and all you have to do is imagine the feeling of moving laterally with bones rubbing each other to understand why such a cautious approach is necessary and why Utley is probably destined for DH-duty in his next deal.

This isn’t a curable condition, it’s one you attempt to manage, but the fact remains that nobody in the Phillies organization knows what is going to happen with Utley in 2012, much less 2013 and beyond. I can guarantee you that nobody in the front office is thinking about how to approach Utley’s next contract because no one knows what he’ll be 18 months from now.

It’s an incredibly sad situation. Utley was on a Hall-of-Fame pace through the end of 2009, when he was averaging a .301/.388/.535 slash-line with 32 homers and 43 doubles in full seasons while playing elite defense (top-1 or top-2 in the sport) at a premium position.

Utley was the player that separated the Phillies from other teams.

This was before Roy Halladay, and for half of 2009, before Cliff Lee. It was after Cole Hamels’ stellar postseason run but before he turned into a four-pitch demon. Utley was what was different about the Phillies. A patient hitter who could hit the ball anywhere, for power and average, reach balls to his left and right that 25 second basemen can’t glove and run the bases exceptionally.

Now, he’s a shell of that.

If Utley misses several weeks or several months, the Chase that returns won’t be the one who hit five homers against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series. It’ll be the Zombie Utley we’ve seen in 2010 and 2011 that hits .278 with a .800 OPS.

We’ll delve into the analysis of what Utley’s absence means in the coming weeks. Hopefully Freddy Galvis proves in early-April that his Spring success was just minimally fluky. Hopefully Galvis gets off to a hot enough start that we don’t have to hear about why the Phillies traded the eminently replaceable Wilson Valdez.

In the meantime though, the real story is how quickly and unfortunately a Hall-of-Fame career was derailed.

Chase Utley could have been one of the all-time greats. Instead, I fear he’ll be viewed outside of Philadelphia as one of many players who merely had a great five-year peak.

I arrived Philadelphia International Airport a day before the cruise was set to embark. At the terminal, I was greeted by dozens of people wearing Phillies apparel.

After the plane ride, where I wasn’t even able to finish the movie I was watching, we arrived at the hotel, and it was just like the airport. Phillies clothes everywhere. And there is more than one hotel in Fort Lauderdale, too. So I imagine a lot of other hotels were similar.

The next day, we arrived at the dock terminal to the sight of a sea of red. And by sea of red I mean hundreds of people wearing Phillies jerseys, hats, jackets, and pants. Now, this was curious. Why would you wear a heavy jacket in Florida? I was sweating and I was wearing a Cliff Lee shirsey and khaki shorts! Furthermore, I spotted a Brewers shirsey, a Twins hat, and fair amount of Yankees apparel. Even some Cardinals shirts. Obviously not everyone was in the AAA group with the Phillies, but come on, these people had to have felt awkward. I imagine it felt like being a Marlins fan at a Phillies-Marlins game–in Florida. But I digress.

We all boarded the ship, and I was still seeing Phillies apparel everywhere. After everyone was on the ship, all the people in the Phillies group were to go down to pick up their credentials that would serve as tickets into the events. They resembled media credentials, on a red ‘AAA’ lanyard.

My Credentials

I had nothing to do, so I went down to the room early and sat down with a drink. Slowly, Phillies fans trickled into the hallway, and I overheard conversations about how this was someone’s 4th Phillies Phantastic Voyage, how Shane Victorino was on a US Air flight (actually the one directly after mine) with a bunch of Phillies fans, and how Charlie Manuel only agreed to do the cruise if Rich Dubee would go. I even saw a Phillies jersey that had tiny last names of past and present Phillies players and coaches, embroidered and scattered across the entire back of the jersey. It was actually a pretty neat piece of clothing, only there was what I hope was just a typo–the name ‘Halliday’. Sad face.

We eventually picked up our credentials and headed back to the room. After normal cruise procedures, we all made our way to the main show lounge for the first event–the introductory cocktail party. One by one, each player and coach was announced to the loud applause and cheers of the crowd, but nothing compared to the ovation that Charlie Manuel got. As soon as his name was announced, the whole crowd stood up and began chanting ‘Char-lie! Char-lie! Char-lie!’ over and over again. It was absolutely surreal. The cocktail party ended up being a just simple introduction, with the players and coaches saying a few words each. At the end, names were picked from a bucket to win door prizes. I didn’t win anything, which would become a trend.

After dinner that night I found myself in the nightclub chatting it up with Scott Palmer and other Phillies fans. Scott is a really cool guy, and easily the most social guest on the entire cruise. Before the cruise I wasn’t really a Scott Palmer fan, but I’ve changed my tune completely.

Scott Palmer introducing Charlie Manuel

The next morning, there was an event called ‘Fun with the Phanatic’ (side note: Thank you, AAA, for not making it ‘Phun with the Phanatic) that was basically a long line to get your picture taken with the Phanatic. Sounds kind of boring, but as you guys know, nothing is boring with the Phanatic. He alone made the long wait in line worth it with his hilarious shenanigans. That day was a sea day, so afterward I headed to the pool to cook my skin until the next event.

Our pass gave us a specific time to show up at the show lounge that afternoon, meaning that all 400 Phillies fans wouldn’t show up at once. But when we got there, there was again an enormous, snake-y line outside the lounge. This event was a photo and Q & A session, and the line was for the photo part of it. Our given time was actually the last block for photos, but we still ended up being about 15 minutes behind schedule. I only got one photo–one with all the players and coaches–before sitting down. We were to go through the line a second time to get individual pictures with each guest, but I was so tired of lines I didn’t even do it. No biggie, that picture with everyone would come in handy later.

Once everyone was done with the pictures and found seats in the lounge, the Q&A session began. This was pretty cool–Scott Palmer, Charlie Manuel, Shane Victorino, John Mayberry Jr, Rich Dubee, and the Phanatic sans costume fielded questions from the audience. One funny thing that Scott Palmer said was that “The questions from [the audience] were probably going to be more intelligent than those by the general media.” Anyway, the questions began, ranging from picking Charlie’s mind about what he thought about the 2011 season to what the players do behind the scenes. All in all, it was a very interesting session.

Tom, the guy who is the man behind the green fur of the Phanatic, had some interesting insight on how much his job means not only to him, but to other players, and not just Phillies players. He explained how he goes about doing some of his shenanigans with players or umpires, and how most of the time it is unplanned and made up on the fly. He also said how the reason the Phanatic is so popular is because of visiting players. They love it.

The Phanatic explaining his shenanigans

The following day was Grand Turk day, and for those of you who have never been to Grand Turk, the most popular spot there is Margaritaville. I was sitting at the bar, enjoying the most delicious Pina Colada I’ve ever had when I saw John Mayberry Jr and his girlfriend walk by and sit down and enjoy the festivities, which included a beer chugging contest and a dance contest, among other things.

Back on the ship, the event of the day was a viewing of the 2011 season highlight film, narrated by Cliff Lee, where Tom and Scott kicked it off stumbling on stage pretending to be members of the Rat Pack with their singing and acting. Again, these two guys–especially Scott–were hilariously entertaining, and made the cruise as fun as it was, more so than any of the coaches or players. I think that says a lot about these two men.

The next event was a first-time event by AAA–a “pajama dance party”. It was at 10:00 PM on the same day of the highlight film and was held up in the adult lounge all the way forward of the ship. I was excited for the dance party but it fell way short of my expectations. It turned out to be simply a gathering of all the people in the Phillies group, with AAA’s “DJ” using his iPod for the music. Weak.

The next day was an event called “Game Show”. We soon learned that this would be a “Battle of the Sexes” themed game. As with some of the other events, Scott Palmer, who played the role of host and MC, really made the show hilarious as I found myself laughing throughout the entire thing. The last round had special surprise team captains–Charlie Manuel and his wife, Missy. This was awesome, as the team members of each team–picked in the same fashion as the door prizes at the end of each event–got to talk with Charlie (the guys team) and his wife (the girls team). In fact, Charlie and Missy did this on their own, as they were not scheduled to be a part of the event. Very cool.

We took a day off from events, and returned Thursday morning in the same adult lounge at the front of the ship for the autograph session. Now, the autograph session was easily the worst event on the entire cruise. They were doing it in 15 minute blocks, so a certain amount of people showed up at 11:00 AM, 11:15 AM, etc. However, there must have been some major delays because when I showed up at 11:15 AM, there were still people in line that did not even enter yet from the 10:00 AM group. So the wait began. And continued. And continued. It wasn’t until about 12:20 PM-ish that I began getting stuff signed. By that time I was drenched in sweat, as were many other people, because it was extremely hot up there. Remember that group picture I had? I got it signed by each guest.

In costume this time, the Phanatic making everyone laugh, as usualThe final event was on the last night, so it was a bittersweet mood in the crowd. On one hand, it was an awesome cruise that we were celebrating, and on the other it was sad to see it end. The cocktail party consisted of re-introducing the AAA team that was on the cruise, re-introducing all the players a coaches, and some jokes by Scott Palmer and a funny routine by the Phanatic (with the costume). Just like the first night, Charlie got a standing ovation. That was basically it for the last event, however, which ended with a toast to us the fans for making it such a fun experience.

The events themselves were obviously very cool, but what was even more cool to me was just seeing the players and coaches and talking with them. There were many times I would see Charlie in the casino–I even played video poker with him once. John Mayberry Jr enjoyed blackjack, Rich Dubee enjoyed just hanging out with everyone, whether it be the pool, the casino, or the buffet. I didn’t really see Shane Victorino outside of the events, but he had 12 people with him, he probably didn’t have much time to be out hanging with the fans. The one guy who I saw everywhere was Scott Palmer. As I said above, I saw him at the night club, the casino, the pool, on the islands, at breakfast, at the bar, and I’m sure other places as well. And he wasn’t just “around” either, he was chatting with anyone who wanted to listen, telling stories, and having a good time. He was definitely my MVP for the cruise.

AAA’s gift to each person who was part of the group was a ‘Phillies Phantastic Voyage’ pool bag, and in the bag was the 2011 highlight film, a Phillies Phantastic Voyage towel, and some papers that would serve as souvenirs of the cruise (itinerary, etc). We got one of our bags signed by each guest.

The cruise is definitely something I would recommend doing for anyone who calls themselves a Phillies fan. In fact, I’ll be going on it again next year, as the ports of call are places I’ve never been to. Charlie Manuel has confirmed that he will go next year, and at the last cocktail party, Shane hinted that he will go again next year, although it may be out of his control as his contract is up after next year. He definitely made it sound like he plans to go on the cruise next year and not only be a Phillie, but be a Phillie for the rest of his career.

This cruise was definitely a top 5 Phillies related things I’ve done, and something I will remember for a long time. I hope you enjoyed my thoughts on it.

The problem that comes attached to every premier player is, of course, money. There’s no sense of panic in Hamels’s case, as he and the Phillies still maintain an arbitration-eligible year of control in 2012, but as Cole continues to perform, his price continues to go up. Among a roster that already features multiple large contracts that go beyond 2012, will the Phillies have room in the payroll for Hamels, and still be able to field a full, competitive roster?

These and other concerns discussed after the jump.

Right now, there are more pressing contractual issues for the Phillies to handle. Hamels having an extra year of control means Charlie Manuel, Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson get more attention in their respective potential walk years. We can expect Manuel back, as many indications seem to be that, even as spring approaches with no new deal in hand, Cholly and the Phillies will work something out.

Cole Hamels will need to get paid soon. What's his worth?

As for the remaining three, some questions remain. Rollins, in the middle of what appears to be a precipitous offensive decline, is making $8.5 million in 2011. Should his bat continue to evaporate – .875, .786, .719 and .694 have been J-Roll’s OPSes since 2007 – Rollins may be perceived as a rather noticeable offensive liability. The thing that sets Rollins apart, though, has been and always will be his stellar defense. As long as he performs at an elite level at short, his disappearing bat can actually be tolerated. Compounding that issue, of course, is a lack of near-ready shortstop prospects. Right now, it’s either Rollins or a free agent in 2012, and judging by the list of projected free agents next winter, I think Jimmy is the best fit. I’d expect him back, but he’ll probably fetch $9-10 million annually. Add that to the tab.

One of Lidge/Madson will not be back in 2012. This team operates under the typical sense of bullpen management, with one pitcher designated for close games in the ninth inning, and Madson’s rising star may not fit in any other role for much longer. He’s making less than $5 million this year, and agent Scott Boras may look for something more along the lines of $7+ million per season for Madson’s next deal. This much is guaranteed: whether it’s for the Phillies or some other team, Ryan Madson will be a closer next season. If both he and Lidge leave – Lidge’s $12.5 million option for 2012 seems unlikely to be exercised at this point – there may be added financial flexibility for a new Hamels deal, but the bullpen’s depth takes a dramatic dive.

Taking a step back from the micro issues for a second, these are the positions that will be open after the World Series ends:

• Shortstop: Rollins, as mentioned.
• Left Field: Raul Ibanez‘s three-year deal expires after this season, and he’s unlikely to return.
• Starting Pitcher: If Roy Oswalt isn’t healthy, isn’t effective or is deemed too expensive for his $16M club option – for which the Phils are receiving no money from Houston – he may not be back. Or, as some light speculation suggests, he may retire.
• Bullpen Depth: Madson, Lidge, Danys Baez and J.C. Romero are in the final years of their deals (plus Lidge’s noted option). As much Doc, Lee, Cole and Joe can eat innings, the club will actually need relievers.
• Bench Depth: Including backup catcher Brian Schneider, two bench spots will likely need to be replaced. Schneider and pinch-hit specialist Ross Gload are approaching free agency.

Some spots could be filled internally, of course, but Domonic Brown looks to be the only young prospect set to be ready to contribute at a potentially high level in the next two season. Others may emerge as being potentially ready, but right now, most of the big help – Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, et. al – is multiple years away.

Bringing this all back to the issue at hand: how much can the Phillies afford to pay Hamels? Or, better yet, can they afford not to pay him? Should Hamels and the Phillies go to arbitration next February, the likelihood of a new deal is sure to decrease. Arbitration hearings are notorious for alienating players, and when they don’t, they can end up resulting in massive overpays.

Rest assured, Cole Hamels on the open market will be one of the most highly sought players in the league. Luckily, Cliff Lee‘s new contract seems to bust the conventional wisdom held in the Phillies’ front office that deals longer than three years for pitchers are taboo. Now, Lee could be the exception to the rule instead of the bearer of change, but if another exception is to be made, Hamels looks to be as prime a candidate as any. Among an aging – albeit still effective – roster, Hamels is the front-runner to be the best player on the Phillies over the next five years, Halladay and Lee included. This young, homegrown talent has already accomplished so much, and is just entering his prime. He appears in line to receive – and is, for all intents and purposes, deserving and worthy of – a five- or six-year deal worth around $90 million.

The Phillies have entered a new era; they’re willing to pay lots of money to acquire (or retain) players they see as building blocks to a championship. Before various arbitration cases, potential option pick-ups and supplemental free agent signings, the Phillies have approximately $112 million committed to 11 players in 2012, and at least $50 million to as few as two (!) players in each of the next four years. That’s a lot of money. Luckily, people want to see this team play. Citizens Bank Park will almost certainly sell out for the 200th straight time later this season, and merchandise sales never seem to slip, especially when trademarkable phrases seem to continuously come into play (see: “funner,” etc.). The Phillies will need to rely on their fanbase – hey, that’s you! – and a competitive team to be able to afford these mega-contracts. If it becomes a struggle to afford these deals, players like Hamels may leave for greener pastures. Almost literally.

Time remains for the Phillies to decide if they can afford yet another large contract on their books. In Hamels’s case, he happens to be worth it, at least as we sit here today at the dawn of a new slate of spring training games. He’s proven durable enough to make 30-plus starts per year, and effective enough to have the 15th-most strikeouts of any pitcher in his first five seasons since 1901.

Cole Hamels is good. Real good. He was drafted and groomed by the Phillies, and rewarded the club by being a key part of a championship team. He’s done his part. Will the Phillies do theirs?

In the moments immediately following elimination, it’s hard to stave off feelings of bitterness, anger and disappointment. It’s hard not to run with the overwhelmingly negative emotion and rail against the closest thing. For some, that opportunity arose when Ryan Howard stared at strike three. For others, their ire was directed toward Chase Utley and his disappointing postseason. Hey, everyone copes in his or her own way, but it’s important to maintain some perspective (especially when it comes to a franchise cornerstone).

Chase Utley played in 115 games, in large part because of a thumb injury that required surgery, and, as a result, recorded some stats that were not what we’ve become accustomed to seeing. All of these stats were Chase’s fewest since 2004, when he played in just 94 games:

• 117 hits
• 20 doubles
• 2 triples
• 16 home runs
• .275 batting average
• .445 slugging percentage
• 124 OPS+
• 3.5 oWAR

So the guy is human after all, huh? No one will argue that Chase had one of his typical years, just as I’m sure few will argue that injuries and fatigue probably had their fair share of effect.

What is most certainly arguable is the notion of trading Utley. One “subpar” season – or, microscopically, one bad postseason in which Chase hit just .182/.333/.227 in 27 PA – after a run of historically good ones is no cause to call for Utley’s head.

I won’t derail this post into a defense of Utley against the trading hordes, so instead I’ll just say this: in the land of arbitrary stat endpoints, Chase Utley has had six seasons with .275/.375/.445 or better, with a 120 OPS+ or higher to boot. Only Charlie Gehringer (11), Rogers Hornsby (10) and Eddie Collins (8) have ever had more seasons meeting those criteria as a second baseman than Utley (Utley registered his sixth such season of those numbers in 2010, too, for what it’s worth), and all three of those gentlemen are Hall of Famers.

Utley didn’t have a great season, be that because of injury, fatigue, aging, slight skill decline or demonic possession, but he’s signed to an affordable deal for a player of his caliber, and he’s a face of the franchise. We can be disappointed in 2010, but we can be assured of Utley’s dedication to returning to top form in 2011.

PAUL’S GRADE: 7.3/10

PAT GALLEN: 7.2/10 – Yes, the injury injured his chance at a productive season, however the writing was already on the wall for a down year before his thumb gave out. His not-so-good playoffs didn’t help, either.

NICK STASKIN: 7.1/10 – A down year for Utley, is almost an up year for any other second baseman in baseball. If you compare this season to almost any other second baseman in MLB, it still measures up…just not to the production we are used to.

Tomorrow: Placido Polanco

In May of 1976 and in more recent times, June of 1892(!), the Phillies posted a 22-5 month. In ’76, the Phillies finished with a team-record 101 wins, which they would match the following year. The 1892 season was only an 87 win year, sorry old fellas.

Here are some other great months in Phillies history:

• July 2009: 20-7
• Sept 2008: 17-8
• April 1993: 17-5
• Sept 1983 22-7
• Sept 1980: 19-10
• Aug 1977: 22-7
• Aug 1950: 20-13, July 1950: 21-13
• Sept 1916: 22-9

But anyway, are we currently witnessing the most impressive month in Phillies history? If the Phils finish the month going 5-1, they’ll have a record of 23-4, which would be the most wins in any month ever, and maybe one of the better September/October runs in recent memory by any team.

The Colorado Rockies of 2007 stand out for a team that finished strong, and even they won’t come close. Those Rockies got steaming hot, winning 11 in a row and 14 of 15 to finish the year, and still only compiled a 20-8 September record.

If you go into the way-back machine, the ’02 Oakland A’s won 20 consecutive games in August and completed the month a ridiculous 24-4. The Phillies have an outside shot of nearing that win percentage with an incredible stretch run.

To the best of my knowledge using the internets, The Giants won 29 games in September of 1916, the most ever. The 1938 Yankees won 28 games in August of that year, the most by an AL team. Both were obviously aided by the use of doubleheaders during that time.

Whatever the case may be, you could be witnessing history yet again with this club. Depending on how they close, the 2010 Phillies could be setting themselves up for a prime run at the crown once again.

Earlier this week, with the Phillies seemingly in a free fall from playoff contention, I was driving home from work when I noticed that the sign had been changed. I submit the following without commentary.

Now, I don’t think that having a passing interest in another team makes me a sports polygamist any more than enjoying Gemma Arterton’s brief appearance in Quantum of Solace makes me an adulterer. I enjoy baseball in all its forms, and it’s fun to have someone to cheer for when the Phillies aren’t playing.

For instance (if you’ll forgive an NFL example), I pull for the Houston Texans because their owner endowed the scholarship that paid for my college education. But if they were to play the Eagles? No doubt where my allegiances lie. My point is that we all have secondary preferences in sports for one reason or another.

With that said, I’ve started hearing rumblings. It’s mid-June, and teams are starting to figure out what their needs are, and whether they’re good enough to pursue the playoffs this year. I love trade rumors. But I heard one over the weekend, from Ken Rosenthal, Rumor Geyser, that could ruin the Phillies’ hopes at a second World Series title. Not only that, it could cause violence and lawlessness in the Phillies blogosphere and cast a black cloud over this entire half-decade of National League supremacy.

That rumor: Cliff Lee to the Yankees for prospects, possibly including 20-year-old catcher/Tokyo-wrecking radiological monster Jesus Montero.

My reaction: To become the world’s biggest Tampa Bay Rays fan.

For a city prone to sports-based mass panic, the dual trades that sent Cliff Lee to the Mariners and Roy Halladay to the Phillies occupied a special place. Like T.O. doing crunches in his driveway panic. Like Eric Lindros concussion panic. The cries of “the Phillies are too cheap to win a title” and “to hell with the prospects, I want the three-headed monster this season” seemed to blot out the sun. Even after Roy Halladay started off better than any Phillies starter in recent memory, it seemed like no number of MS Paint illustrations or French-speaking slurves from Phillippe Aumont could stem the insatiable bloodthirst of the Philly sporting public.

Now imagine the following series of newspaper lead sentences.

July 29 SEATTLE (AP)—The Mariners threw in the towel on their season this morning when GM Jack Zduriencik announced that the team had traded ace pitcher and free agent-to-be Cliff Lee to the New York Yankees for three prospects, including prize catcher Jesus Montero.

Oct. 27 NEW YORK (AP)—“It’s good to be back,” said Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard as his team arrived at Yankee Stadium for the second straight October.

Nov. 3 NEW YORK (AP)—If you can’t beat him, trade for him. Cliff Lee, the one pitcher the Yankees couldn’t solve in the 2009 World Series outdueled former teammate Cole Hamels for the second straight game to tie up the Series at 3-3. The 4-1 victory sets up a Game 7 matchup of Phil Hughes against Joe Blanton.

Let’s say Hughes beats Blanton (which he would in most cases) and the Yankees beat the Phillies in the World Series again, this time behind the one guy Philly fans wanted to keep the most. Where the Phillies were either unable or unwilling to pony up to keep Lee, the Yankees were, and were rewarded with a World Series title. The blogosphere would blow up. WIP’s switchboards would catch fire and burn down half the city. I’m imagining the scene in Mean Girls where Regina George sprinkles photocopied pages of the Burn Book down the halls of the high school, except it’s neither funny, ironic, or narrated by Lindsay Lohan.

Granted, this scenario is far from a certainty. First, the Yankees have to trade for Lee. Then, the Phillies and Yankees have to both make it back to the World Series. Then, Lee has to win two games (both against Cole Hamels, in the worst-case scenario) and the Yankees have to take the Series.

But I’d give almost anything to avoid this scenario. I wouldn’t sell my own soul, but I’d certainly sell someone else’s. Which is why I’m throwing my full karmic weight (such as it is) behind Tampa for the rest of the season, in the hope that they prevent the Yankees (either through some confluence of regular-season events or in the ALCS) from reaching the World Series. If you don’t want this to happen, you’ll do the same.

With his current deal running through next season, the timing of this announcement comes as bit of a surprise. That notwithstanding, the new big debate immediately revolves around Howard’s worth. Is this contract an accurate projection of what Howard will accomplish from the 2012 to 2016 seasons? Remember, contracts are for production you expect, not production you’ve received. Will Ryan Howard, from age 32 to 36, be a player even more valuable than he was from 2006 to 2009? Will he be as valuable as other players being paid that much, a la Rodriguez and (presumably) Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder?

The fact is that no one knows the answer to that question, for sure. Not yet. All a person like me can do is look at the numbers and the history and make a determination for my own sake, and that determination is simple: Ryan Howard is not now and will not be worth his new contract extension.

In what will be a point/counterpoint argument, I’ll be playing the bad cop to Corey’s good cop. I’m about to tell you why this is a bad deal for the Phillies. He’ll rebuild your spirits in a post of defense to follow. There’s even some thematic music at the bottom to tap your toes to as you read.

Ryan Howard is an exciting player. I enjoy having him play for my team, and I can certainly appreciate the raw power he brings to the dish in every plate appearance. I can certainly understand why he often gets more appreciation than Chase Utley; most fans see batting average, home runs and RBI as the biggest measures of success, and thus see little to sway them away from favoring Howard as the better player. That’s fine. Utley is better for reasons that are irrelevant to the true point of this article, but the line of thinking seemingly at play here establishes some sort of rationale for this deal, and the likely acceptance most fans will meet it with.

The breakdown is as follows: starting with the 2012 season, Howard will make $20 million from ’12-’13, then $25 million from ’14-’16 with a $23 million club option for 2017, plus a limited no-trade clause. Howard will play his age 32-37 seasons under this new deal, a time that will make paying him such amounts of money quite dubious. Through 2009, Howard’s age 29 season, his five most comparable hitters are Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Willie McCovey and David Ortiz, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Determined through comparison of past performance, these are the players B-R has pegged as most similar to Howard.

The obvious standout is McCovey, who finished a Hall of Fame career off by hitting .262/.397/.512 with 145 homers in 718 games spanning his age 32 to 37 seasons. McCovey is the best-case scenario, here, among this group of five. Here’s how the other four fared from their age 32 to 37 seasons:

• Sexson: .211/.306/.392 with 33 homers in 217 games (only played to age 33)
• Fielder: .249/.344/.439 with 69 homers in 375 games (only played to age 34)
• Vaughn: .261/.356/.469 with 65 homers in 327 games (only played to age 35, missed entire age 33 season)
• Ortiz: .245/.343/.474 with 52 homers in 273 games through Sunday, in his age 34 season

All of those signify marked declines from the prime years of each of those hitters. The scariest part of those numbers isn’t even necessarily the relatively pedestrian offensive lines, it’s the stark lack of longevity. All four had body types too big to play effective defense, and all were exclusively first basemen or designated hitters. Howard’s body type isn’t far removed, as his 6’4″, 225-pound frame puts him right smack-dab in the middle of the bodies those four sported. Prodigious power hitters with average contact skills and decent plate discipline, all mired in “slumps” to end their careers; ending them abruptly, at that. Those guys are not Ryan Howard to a T, no, but they are very similar. Will Howard have a career arc that trails off as quickly as those listed above? Maybe, maybe not. For every McCovey-type, though, it seems there are four Sexons, Vaughns, Fielders and Ortizes*.

*The remaining five comparable players to Howard that B-R lists – Tony Clark, Mark McGwire, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff and Norm Cash – combined to put up a much more reassuring .275/.370 line, with many of them accumulating significant playing time into their later 30s. I’m hopeful Howard will follow their career paths more closely, but can’t help thinking they were in the bottom five of comparables for a reason.

Steering away from the careers of others and back to Howard, let’s place his production in line with his new $25 million compatriot, Alex Rodriguez. Do the numbers stack up? Is Howard comparable to Rodriguez?

Equating salaries is not my forte, and I won’t try to discuss something I am not fluent in. Knowing that, take a look at A-Rod’s latest contract, signed following the 2007 season when Rodriguez was 31. A 10-year deal worth $275 million made A-Rod the richest player ever. He’ll make $25 million per season or more through 2014, with salaries of $21 million, $20 million and $20 million thereafter. He will be 42 when his contract ends.

Howard’s deal is not quite as severe, but Howard is also not the player A-Rod is, nor are the Phillies the Yankees. General Manager Ruben Amaro does seem to think Howard will be worth about as much to the Phillies as the Yankees hope Rodriguez will be. In opening that door, comparisons have at least been made fair game.

Check out the two graphs above. Thanks to Fangraphs’ nice comparison tool, the career paths of Howard and Rodriguez have been synced up rather nicely. You can even ignore the last drop in Howard’s line, as that includes the current, far from complete season. The first dot also includes a very partial, pre-rookie season. The middle five are where the money is.

The top graph shows on-base percentage, or the number of times each didn’t make an out. Howard’s MVP campaign in 2006 gives him his lone victory over A-Rod, here. Beyond that, he’s noticeably below A-Rod and only just about his equal at one point. Really, 2005, 2008 and 2009 found Howard only barely above league average (denoted by the solid blue line).

The second graph denotes Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA*. You can read up on wOBA here, but for the sake of simplicity, regard this as an advanced form of the above stat, OBP, that also includes slugging, so Howard’s power is not discounted.

*As I’m sure most of you are familiar with OPS, take note of how this differs. Weighted on-base is a way of properly valuing both on-base and slugging percentage. Simply squishing them together into OPS makes things a little sloppy; OBP’s maximum is 1.000, while slugging tops out at 4.000 (if you homered every time you came to the plate), yet both are treated equally when combined into OPS. Weighted on-base tries to right the playing field a bit, and present its result on the OBP scale. So there’s a quick briefing on that.

The graphs are nearly the same. Howard’s power does not eclipse Rodriguez, nor does it provide enough leverage to significantly close the gaps in traditional OBP. In fact, Howard’s MVP season in ’06 is actually made less impressive, as Rodriguez had a year that was nearly equal over those multiple facets. It still remains to be seen whether Howard can maintain his production at a level near A-Rod in the coming years.

So, considering the above, as well as Rodriguez’s superior contact, plate discipline and comparable power, it’s safe to assume that Alex Rodriguez is a better player without much serious competition. It follows that the line of thinking that compares Howard to Rodriguez in order to structure a new contract is patently misguided.

Another thing to consider, as written up earlier today by Fangraphs’ Matthew Carruth:

Even if you think baseball’s salary per win goes up to $4.25 million this coming offseason and rises at a 5% clip every winter through 2017, Howard will need to produce an average of 4.75 wins from 2012 through 2017 just in order to justify his salary. If you factor in that Howard gets (even more) long-term security from this deal, then that average production levels goes up to 5.3 wins.

The “wins” Mr. Carruth is referencing are Wins Above Replacement, a stat Michael and I introduced some of you to in our Total WAR series. Wins Above Replacement is a stat that seeks to encapsulate all of a player’s abilities into one simple-to-use – if not so simple-to-calculate – statistic: how many “wins” do a player’s offense and defense contribute to his team over any given “replacement” player, who could be any Joe Smith called up from the minor leagues tomorrow.

He says that Howard needs to average about five wins over the life of his new deal in order to justify it, in terms of justifying salary with production. Unfortunately, Howard has bested five wins just once: 2006. He hit 4.9 last year, but managed just 4.2 and 3.3 wins in ’06 and ’07. In fact, Howard has averaged below five wins over his four complete seasons, the prime seasons of his career. If he can’t manage an average of five wins above replacement in what should be the best years of his career, what makes anyone think his post-prime years (and beyond) will be better? Not just that, how can they be consistently better over a longer period?

Of course, it would be another thing entirely if Howard played a premium defensive position, like catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. There is an added emphasis on defensive proficiency at each of those position, and so players who can play them well defensively and contribute offensively are valued higher. Logical, yes?

Howard plays first base, one of the least-taxing defensive positions on the field. He plays first base among a field of players that includes Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto, Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee and others, like Kendry Morales. Howard’s numbers are impressive, but just how impressive are they, relative to his field? Well, WAR already took some of that into account – hence numbers that were probably a bit lower than you expected – but they don’t detail Howard’s ranks among his first base peers.

In 2009, among first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances, Howard was 14th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging. In 2008, Howard was 29th in average, 25th in OBP and seventh in slugging. Again, that’s exclusively among first basemen, and 2007′s ranks aren’t much better (though they are an improvement over ’08). With this extension, Phillies brass are paying Ryan Howard to be not only one of the best first basemen in the game, but one of the five best players period, and they expect him to stay at that level for many, many years to come. As it stands right now, Howard isn’t even one of the five best first basemen in the league, much less one of the best regardless of position*.

*Because I’m sure you were just dying to know, Howard’s ranks in WAR among M.L. first basemen from 2007 to 2009 are fifth, ninth and eighth, respectively. Very good, but worth this much coin?

For three years, it looked as though Howard was already set to decline. At least, it seemed that way, given his declining walk rate (found here under BB%) and increasing tendency to swing at balls out of the strike zone (denoted here by O-Swing%). It seemed as though 2009 bucked that trend. His slash stats went up across the board, his BABIP went up 40 points despite no discernible increase in line drive percent with way more fly balls than ground balls, and his strikeout rate went down (though it was still 30 percent). Had this extension happened months later, the current project on Howard and the shift would be done and we’d have a conclusive reason why this happened. Alas.

Back on track, Howard’s even a one-tool player in relation to pitcher handedness, too. For his career, Ryan is a .226/.309/.443 career hitter against lefty pitchers, while he mashes righties to the tune of .307/.406/.656, a huge disparity. Years into his Major League career, he still has extreme difficulties against left-handed pitching, and there’s little reason to think that will improve after he’s already spent so much time with the big league club. From .225 to .224 to .207 batting against lefties from 2007 to 2009, the downward trend is scary. If he’s not already, it seems Ryan Howard’s skill set is destined to turn him into a platoon player. A platoon player who is very, very good at his specialty, but pretty much one-dimensional just the same.

It seems to me, then, that this deal is a result of an old-fashioned way of thinking. Howard’s power right now is excellent, and as a result of having great power and hitting behind Chase Utley, Howard has high RBI totals. Howard gets a large number of chances to drive in runners because of the high-OBP Utley and good-OBP Victorino hitting ahead of him.

To his credit, Howard does have a nice career line with runners in scoring position: .280/.416/.582 in more than 1,000 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. An excellent line, something I can’t explain, seeing as I don’t believe “clutch” hitting is necessarily a skill. It’s something I should acknowledge amidst all this, though. And has the Ted Williams shift robbed him of more hits than it’s given him? That’s another thing we don’t know. At least, not yet.

As for the future shock this gives the team, the ripples from this deal will be felt for years. The Phillies will now have $55 million and change committed to Howard, Utley and Roy Halladay alone in 2012, with an additional $30 million-plus to the bank accounts of Placido Polanco, Victorino, Joe Blanton and Carlos Ruiz. The offseason preceding that 2012 season would also be a time for seven current Phillies – including Ryan Madson – to become free agents, and an additional five Phillies would have arbitration years to be paid. A total of $85 million and change is now on the books for seven players.

Even if you’re not a subscriber to the belief that this deal is budget-hampering, it’s hard to dispute that this is money that could be spent better down the line. Twenty-five million can get a whole lot on the free agent market, or even be put toward international scouting or other players currently on the roster or any number of other things. It’s like what was discussed earlier about the going price of a “win.” Howard has averaged just below five wins over his four full seasons, yet must now be expected to be even better – as one player – than whatever combination of talent $25 million could bring in every season, and for a long stretch. His production alone must eclipse whatever value could be brought to the team in other areas of need down the line, and he just won’t be capable of that.

Let me be clear, once more: I appreciate what Ryan Howard helped bring us in 2008. I find my jaw hanging a bit agape at the length of some of his home runs. I can respect his desire to get paid like a top-tier player. I just don’t believe that a player with what appear to be declining skills – skills that weren’t enough to make him a top-ten MLB player to begin with – should be paid one of the most expensive contracts in history for a time period where his skills are expected to decline even further. That’s not slighting Howard as a person, but rather putting Howard the baseball player into perspective. He has power, and, if you wish to call it a skill, hits well with runners in scoring position. That’s it, at least in terms of major credentials in favor of Howard getting such a monstrous deal. My belief that Howard is overpaid is not a reflection of the intangible contributions he has made to this city nor his personality; those are things I cannot measure and am neither counting for nor against his case. I just judge based on the earlier-stated belief that MLB contracts are about expected production, not the past.

To that end, in the long view, Howard’s contract is set up to become an albatross. He will be all but untradeable – the no-trade clause is redundant, given the enormity of his yearly salaries – and his budget hit could restrict the Phillies’ movements in the free agent market for quite a while, assuming their current economic state doesn’t change. Future circumstances could provide the team with their own cable network, something that would surely soften the budget blow of Howard’s deal, at least, but no such thing appears imminent.

As it stands right now, the Phillies have given a top-player contract to a player whose skills have begun to decline while playing at a non-premium defensive position at which he is not among the five best in the Majors. Again, I like having Ryan on the team. I will cheer him on when he does well and boo him when he slumps, just as I would any other player not named Utley. I take exception to his contract and the precedent it could set for this team’s future deals, as well as the potential restrictions it could have on the team’s roster construction. It’s a gross overpayment and misjudgment of ability as it stands right now. Only time will tell if I – and the history I’ve used as anecdotal evidence – will be persuaded away from our beliefs.

Hey, things could change. I’m certainly open to persuasion. And maybe the front office could pull out a rabbit and re-sign Jayson Werth after all. Who knows? All I know is what I know on this day, and that’s what I’m going with. I’m sure others are far more content with this deal than I am, and they are even quite pleased at the news. More power to them, for sure. There’s little doubt that Monday was a momentous day, further ushering in a new era of highly competitive, heavily funded Phillies baseball.

I’m just not feeling this particular deal. At least not yet.

The music: 1 2 3

•When did it become cool to boo Cole Hamels?  On a team that had no pitching in 2008 he carried them to a World Series. He had a down year last year, but some of those numbers were inflated by a few awful starts. There are no making excuses for his postseason last year, but this year he has kept the team in the game both starts. Not amazing starts to say the least, but good enough to keep the Phillies in it while he works out the kinks. I really don’t want the voices of some dumb fans to get in the head of a kid with worlds of talent. Philadelphia has a knack for moving its stars, see the resumes of Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling, Allen Iverson, Charles Barkley and most recently Donovan McNabb. I’m really not prepared for the name Cole Hamels to join that list yet.

•For everybody that complains about how hard it is to get tickets to games, why don’t people use them to actually watch the game? I spoke with countless fans who couldn’t tell me anything about why Rollins was hurt, who homered for the Nats, or who came in for the out after Hamels couldn’t finish the inning. Tons of fans seemed to just chill out in Ashburn Alley or the smoking stands or even worse wait in line for Crab Fries for over an hour without even glancing onto the field for the action. Considering how tough this ticket was to get it confused me. We aren’t talking about a mid-July Wednesday afternoon game against the Reds, this was the home opener.

•After the terrible weather that normally comes with Phillies games in early April, how refreshing was Monday, as well as the rest of this week’s forecast? Perhaps Major League Baseball finally got it right, limiting home games on the East Coast.

•Was it me or was the raising of the National League Championship flag a bit uneventful? Same goes with the National League Champions ring ceremony scheduled for Thursday afternoon. Maybe 2008 spoiled me, being in the stadium as they rose the flag minutes after winning the World Series, but this kind of felt like kissing your sister. The blue flag is cool, but I think that raising a red one that reads 2010 will make everything right again.

•I don’t want the ladies to take this wrong and think that I don’t appreciate it. And I don’t want the men to think I’m trying to ruin it for the rest of them, but what is going on with the women at Citizens Bank Park? All of a sudden the stadium has the feel of a singles bar. Girls are wearing their skimpiest Chase Utley t-shirts that are cut down the cleavage to go along with the shortest of Phillies shorts that show the bottom of their butt cheeks. I’d be lying if I didn’t say I loved the scenery, but from watching these girls…and trust me, I’m watching, it sure seems like a lot of these girls are there to pick up guys rather than watch the game. What they choose to do with their ticket is on them, but seems like another case of people wasting the tickets that everyone is howling about not being able to get. I understand it only recently become cool to be a Phillies fan, and who am I to judge what these girls wear or how they act in the game, but I know I’m not the only person to notice this over the past year or so.

•As far back as I can remember, I don’t remember any player bringing this kind of excitement to Philadelphia as Roy Halladay is doing right now. I don’t even think the Eagles acquisition of Terrell Owens had the city in such joyous uproar. You couldn’t even begin to count the amount of #34 jerseys and t-shirts Monday afternoon. What is Saturday going to be like when he takes the mound for the first time at The Bank?

•Finally, after talking with numerous fans, everyone seems to have the same expectation: World Series or bust. A favorable first nine games, facing the two worst teams in the NL (depending who you ask), has definitely helped get the momentum rolling in the right direction. But where do the Phillies go without Jimmy Rollins? Upon writing of this column, the word was still “wait-and-see”, by Wednesday morning that could become a stint on the 15-day DL. Without one of the leaders on the team, it will be interesting to see how the Phillies respond as a team.

One week is in the books for the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies and I can’t remember a season starting the way this one has in a very long time.

All winter, we’ve been doing this Total WAR Project, and hearing a chorus of “We don’t care about the Cardinals, or Mariners, or Red Sox–what about the Phillies?”

Well, two days before the first pitch of the season, we can finally answer that question–what about the Phillies?–after the jump.

2009 Roster

C1: Carlos Ruiz (2.2 WAR)
C2: Chris Coste (0.4 WAR), Paul Bako (0.1 WAR)

1B: Ryan Howard (4.8 WAR)
2B: Chase Utley (7.6 WAR)
3B: Pedro Feliz (1.3 WAR)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (2.4 WAR)
INF: Eric Bruntlett (-1.0 WAR); Greg Dobbs (0.0 WAR)

OF1: Jayson Werth (4.7 WAR)
OF2: Raul Ibanez (4.3 WAR)
OF3: Shane Victorino (3.4 WAR)
OF4: Ben Francisco (0.6 WAR)
OF5: Matt Stairs (o.5 WAR)

SP1: Cole Hamels (3.8 WAR)
SP2: Cliff Lee (2.4 WAR)
SP3: Joe Blanton (2.2 WAR)
SP4: J.A. Happ (1.8 WAR)
SP5: Brett Myers (-0.5 WAR), Jamie Moyer (0.6 WAR), Pedro Martinez (0.6 WAR)

CL: Brad Lidge (-0.7 WAR)
SU: Ryan Madson (1.4 WAR)
RP: Chan Ho Park (1.5 WAR)
RP: Clay Condrey (0.2 WAR)
RP: Chad Durbin (-0.4 WAR)
RP: Scott Eyre (0.0 WAR)
RP: Jack Taschner (-0.2 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 44

What this illustrates is how good Pedro and Cliff Lee were last year, piling up those WAR numbers in only 2 months. It also illustrates how bad the bullpen was, with three below-replacement-level pitchers eating up significant innings. Also, Eric Bruntlett’s historic badness crops up once again.

There were minor contributions by a host of other pitchers like Kyle Kendrick and Rodrigo Lopez, but they were close to zero.

Ordinarily I’d dive into the contributions of Lee and Utley and the down seasons had by Lidge and others, but I think you know the story. One point that bears mentioning is that Chad Durbin, who had a good 2008 and is looked on as the team’s top middle reliever, was below replacement level in 2009, as was J.C. Romero, though Romero only pitched a handful of innings and was injured.

On to 2010

2010 Roster

C1: Carlos Ruiz (2.4 WAR)
C2: Brian Schneider (1.5 WAR)

1B: Ryan Howard (4.4 WAR)
2B: Chase Utley (6.1 WAR)
3B: Placido Polanco (3.0 WAR)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (3.8 WAR)
INF: Juan Castro (-0.5 WAR); Greg Dobbs (0.6 WAR)

OF1: Jayson Werth (3.2 WAR)
OF2: Raul Ibanez (2.0 WAR)
OF3: Shane Victorino (2.9 WAR)
OF4: Ben Francisco (2.2 WAR)
OF5: Ross Gload (-0.3 WAR)

SP1: Roy Halladay (6.4 WAR)
SP2: Cole Hamels (3.9 WAR)*
SP3: Joe Blanton (2.6 WAR)*
SP4: J.A. Happ (2.3 WAR)*
SP5: Jamie Moyer (0.7 WAR)*, Kyle Kendrick (0.4 WAR) 4.96 FIP, 167 IP

CL: Brad Lidge (0.5 WAR)*
SU: Ryan Madson (1.2 WAR)*
RP: Jose Contreras (2.5 WAR) 3.79 FIP, 68 IP
RP: Danys Baez (0.3 WAR) 4.69 FIP, 47 IP
RP: Chad Durbin (-0.4 WAR) 4.46 FIP, 68 IP
RP: J.C. Romero (-0.3 WAR) 4.57 FIP, 39 IP
RP: David Herndon (0.0 WAR) 5.61 FIP, 55 IP
RP: Antonio Bastardo (o.1 WAR) 4.93 FIP, 85 IP (as a starter)

2010 Projected Total WAR: 51.5

I know this is more than 25 players, but I’m trying to compensate for Blanton, Lidge, and Romero starting the year on the DL.

So this is what we get–replacing Bruntlett with someone who’s going to be almost as bad, a slight rebound out of a few key players, and predicted regression to the mean for Ibanez and Werth. Utley’s going to be the best position player, and Halladay the best pitcher–I think we knew that. I’m not sure why Werth is being tipped to drop so much, but it does worry me. Pretty much everyone else stays in line with previous production. Brian Schneider’s going to be a good backup catcher–he’s almost exactly like Ruiz behind the plate, but with a better arm. You know how Ruiz loves to try to pick runners off? Well, Schneider does that too, except when he does it he doesn’t put the ball into the second row of seats.

David Herndon is also worth mentioning. I know a lot of people are excited about his spring training numbers. Don’t be. First of all, there’s no point in getting excited about 11.2 innings of spring training ball from a pitcher who, at age 24, has never been above AA ball before. Second, look at his minor league numbers. Even in the low minors, he only strikes out about 5 batters per 9 innings. If you can’t miss more bats than that in A-ball, how are you going to strike anyone out in the majors? He gets a lot of ground balls (a ratio of about 3.5/1 in spring training), which helps, but I see him as, at best, a replacement-level mopup guy, and at worst, a guy who costs the Phillies a couple of close games in April before landing back in the Angels’ minor league system by July 4.

So the Phillies got a little bit better this offseason. I think we knew that. But how did they compare to their rivals?

As you can tell, the projected WAR is, across the board, up for most of these teams. I’d chalk this up to two factors: first, the reliance on fan projections from FanGraphs for relievers (the fans tend to overrate compared to CHONE), and the fact that the WAR projections don’t take into account the possibility of Carlos Beltran, for instance, missing the whole season.

Here’s what we can conclude. First, that the Phillies, at worst, kept pace with their title rivals. The teams projected to improve the most are the Mets and Brewers, both of which were well off the pace last year. Behind them are the Phillies and Rockies, two teams that are expected by many to be a couple wins better than last year.

Second, we can conclude that the Yankees and Red Sox are light-years ahead of the other teams. Not like we didn’t have evidence of that already, but this is just one more statistic reinforcing what we already know.

What I consider to be the most interesting (and most fortunate, for the Phillies) is the expected regression of the Dodgers and Cardinals. Neither team made any major moves in the offseason, both carry significant flaws, and both are getting older. The projections don’t show a major drop-off for either team, but when you’re standing still while your rivals, by the same method, are shown to be significantly better, there’s a problem.

Now, just because we can, let’s put together an all-star team from these WAR projections. I’m not sure what this is supposed to predict or prove, but we’ve got all this data, so why not have some fun?

C: Brian McCann (4.7 WAR)
1B: Albert Pujols (7.2 WAR)
2B: Chase Utley (6.1 WAR)
3B: David Wright (5.2 WAR)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (6.4 WAR)
OF1: Curtis Granderson (4.9 WAR)
OF2: Ryan Braun (4.8 WAR)
OF3: Matt Holliday (4.8 WAR)
SP1: Roy Halladay (6.4 WAR)
SP2: Felix Hernandez (6.0 WAR)
SP3: Cliff Lee (6.0 WAR)
SP4: Jon Lester (5.6 WAR)
SP5: CC Sabathia (5.5 WAR)
CL: Jonathan Broxton (2.6 WAR)

So there you have it. This concludes Total WAR Project 2009-10. I hope you’ve had as much fun reading it as Paul and I have had writing it, and I hope it hasn’t been as much of a pain to read as it was a pain to write.

The best news is that we can all quit projecting, because baseball starts for real tomorrow night, and Phillies baseball starts for real on Monday. Have a happy Easter, and may you have a wonderful 2010 season.

The Florida Marlins are truly an amazing team. They’ve got a cycle going: start out with a crap team, draft and scout well, make a few shrewd trades, win a World Series, sell everyone off, and repeat. So far, it’s worked about once every five to seven years.

In 2009, the Marlins won 87 games with a combined team salary of roughly $34.5 million, according to Cot’s Contracts. That means they paid about $397,000 per win. It’s about the cost of a house in the suburbs, but it’s far better than the Phillies’ ratio (93 wins, $127.9 million payroll, $1.375 million per win) or the World Champion Yankees (103 wins, $206.8 million payroll, $2.01 million per win). Now, I’m sure that while Marlins fans (if there are any) are proud that their team paid about 1/8 as much per win as the Yankees, they’d much rather overspend for a World Series title.

But there is something to be said for being able to scare the bejeezus out of the Phillies, Mets, and Braves every year with a bunch of homegrown prospects and reclamation projects. Their scouting department does an excellent job and Fredi Gonzalez, while I think he’s a self-important, tyrannical prick, is an excellent manager who now has won more games than any other manager in team history. While I don’t think anyone in his right mind would pick the Marlins to win the division outright, you’d have to be an idiot to underestimate them.

2010 Preview

We know that Hanley Ramirez is probably the best position player in the National League not named Pujols. We know that Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu will hit some and play terrible defense. Apart from that, the Marlins just have a slew of young players, enough that if Andrew Miller or Cameron Maybin doesn’t work out, they don’t really care.

Look for the Marlins to pitch very well. Josh Johnson might turn out to be the third-best starting pitcher in the division, and is an intimidating presence on the mound at a massive 6-foot-7, 250 pounds. He rode a mid-90s fastball and a hammer slider to a 3.03 FIP and 15 wins last year, good enough results that when MLB ordered the Marlins to go spend some money, they spent it locking up Johnson to a contract extension. He and Hanley Ramirez are the only Marlins signed beyond this year.

Another Marlin pitcher to watch out for is Ricky Nolasco. Think of him as a right-handed Cliff Lee–he was quite good in 2008 but went to the minors in 2009. He straightened out his mechanics and came back up to the majors with his problems fixed. In September and October, he struck out more than 11 batters every 9 innings, a staggering total for a starting pitcher. Look for Nolasco’s 2008-09-10 to be a less-dramatic version of Lee’s 2006-07-08 seasons.

Beyond Johnson and Nolasco, they have the team’s highest-paid player, Nate Robertson, acquired from the Tigers this spring. Of course, the Tigers are paying $9.6 million of his $10 million salary. Beyond him stand a collection of young pitchers, ranging from former No. 6 overall pick Miller (6-foot-7) to Chris Volstad (6-foot-8) to Anibal Sanchez, who’s only 6-foot but threw a no-hitter once. If this season goes south, look for the Marlins to loan their starting rotation to the Heat next year.

If you don’t know the Marlins by now, you will never never never know them–they’re going to be a young, exciting team that finishes a few games over .500 and scares the crap out of the Phillies in September. With the ascendancy of the Braves, the Phillies have a bigger chaser in their rearview mirror, but don’t sleep on the Fish, or your playoff hopes might sleep with them.

Prediction: 86-76

Back when when we were at The Phrontiersman, Paul and I did a playoff projection pool with our friends and families (his Yankee-fan girlfriend predicted the outcome of every single series and won). I got in trouble when my predicted NL champion, the Cardinals, got swept in the first round. Since then, not much has changed. They’ve ditched Joel Pineiro and Mark DeRosa’s medical history, but the core remains.

I don’t know how a team with so few quality players can be any better than the 2009-10 Cardinals. They manage it because they’ve got two of the five best starting pitchers in the National League, two quality outfielders (including one, Colby Rasmus, who’s getting a lot of love for a breakout 2010 on the heels of his 16-homer rookie season), the best defensive catcher in baseball, and that dude Pujols.

Albert Pujols is mind-bendingly good, as I’m sure you know. He just turned 30 in January, and has already hit 366 major league home runs. His WAR of 8.5 last year was as good as Ichiro and Shane Victorino combined. He’s literally two all-stars in one. He’s third all-time in career OPS, up with Babe Ruth and Ted Williams and Barry Bonds. At one point late last summer (I don’t know if this held up until October), he was twice as likely to hit a homer with the bases loaded than he was to swing and miss at a pitch. He’s a truly transcendent player, and I don’t know that we’ll ever see the like of him again.

But after Pujols, there’s a huge drop-off to Matt Holliday, and from him, a huge drop in quality to Brendan Ryan, Rasmus, and Yadier Molina, and after that, who knows?

Essentially, the Cardinals won 90 games last year on the strength of Pujols, their top two starting pitchers, and tremendous good fortune. Ryan Franklin held up as a dominant closer for most of the year. Pineiro developed a bowling ball sinker. Zombie John Smoltz turned into a solid No. 4 starter.

Perhaps most ridiculously, Skip Schumaker acquitted himself quite well after converting to second base from the outfield. While infielders move to the outfield quite often with great success (Mickey Mantle, for instance, was originally a shortstop), the opposite almost never happens. But Schumaker, while he didn’t light the world on fire, continued to hit .300 and walk some while not killing the Cards at the keystone. That’s the kind of break the Cardinals always seem to get, and it’s what put them into a position to mount a serious challenge for the pennant.

2010 Season

The good news for Cardinals fans is that the rest of the NL Central is in such a state that they don’t need all the same breaks to get back into the playoffs. I’m going to contradict my esteemed colleague Pat Gallen here, but the NL Central, apart from St. Louis is like a Dane Cook TV special–just one terrible joke after another.

I can’t name more than four Pittsburgh Pirates without using Google. The Reds don’t have any proven star-quality players and are toiling under the leadership of the only manager in baseball whom I’d describe as an albatross–Dusty Baker. In Houston, Ed Wade is trying to win by reassembling the 2003 Phillies. Lou Piniella’s Flying Circus is just getting older and more dysfunctional. That leaves the Brewers, a team that could steal the division, but needs even more lucky breaks than the Cardinals to do so.

St. Louis would be the third-best team (at best) in four of the other five divisions in baseball, but due to fortunate geographical circumstances, they’re in a division where having two good starters and one monster position player is good enough to win 90 games.

Of course, once they win the division, Wainwright and Carpenter go from pitching 40 percent of the time to 2/3 of the time. I’m not saying that’s enough for me to pick them to win the pennant again, but they scare me.

Prediction: 90-72

So we’ve covered the six NL teams (Braves, the Mets, the Rockies, the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Brewers), plus the Mariners. I honestly think that these Yankees are the team to be worried about. It goes against the pessimist in me, but short of Chase Utley and Roy Halladay engaging in and acting on a suicide pact over the All-Star break, I can’t see any way this team doesn’t get back to the Fall Classic.

They were the best team in baseball by a huge distance last year, and they got even better this offseason. They go legitimately 4-deep in the rotation, they have the best lineup in baseball, and they’re in the process of rotating older talent out of the lineup and inserting younger talent, but more on that later. In short, the best team in baseball continues to get better. More on this after the jump.

2009 Roster

C1: Jorge Posada (3.9 WAR)
C2: Jose Molina (0.0 WAR)

1B: Mark Teixeira (5.2 WAR)
2B: Robinson Cano (4.4 WAR)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (4.4 WAR)
SS: Derek Jeter (7.4 WAR)
INF: Jerry Hairson, Jr. (0.6 WAR); Ramiro Pena (0.5 WAR)

OF1: Johnny Damon (3.1 WAR)
OF2: Melky Cabrera (2.7 WAR)
OF3: Nick Swisher (3.6 WAR)
OF4: Hideki Matsui (1.7 WAR)
OF5: Brett Gardner (2.0 WAR)

SP1: CC Sabathia (6.0 WAR)
SP2: Andy Pettitte (3.3 WAR)
SP3: A.J. Burnett (3.1 WAR)
SP4: Joba Chamberlain (1.5 WAR)
SP5: Sergio Mitre (0.2 WAR)
SP6: Chad Gaudin (0.1 WAR)

CL: Mariano Rivera (2.0 WAR)
SU: Phil Hughes (2.2 WAR)
RP: Alfredo Aceves (1.2 WAR)
RP: David Robertson (0.7 WAR)
RP: Phil Coke (0.1 WAR)
RP: Brian Bruney (-0.1 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 59.8

Yeah. Ok. That’s not even fair. I don’t know if anyone’s seen the Disney animated classic Hercules, but at the very end, Meg (the love interest) is telling Hades (the badguy, voiced by a particularly florid James Woods) why she believes in the title character. “You can’t beat him,” she says. “He has no weaknesses.”

That’s really how last year’s Yankee team worked. They had the best infield in baseball, a good outfield, a great bench, a workhorse ace, two of the eight best relievers in the game and no real stinkers in the bullpen. How could you beat them over seven games? Well, you’d need to score enough runs to keep up with that ridiculous offense, a good enough pitching staff to slow their offense down, and you’d have to steal games against starters not named Sabathia while not letting your own back-end starters and relievers get knocked around.

Believe it or not, the Phillies were probably the team best set up to beat the Yankees last year, and they still lost the World Series in a six-game series that wasn’t really as close as the game differential would make it seem.

In short, Brad Lidge, Pedro Feliz, and Cole Hamels were not to blame for last year’s World Series loss—the Yankees were just head and shoulders above any other team in the league.

The scary part? They’ll be just as good, if not better, this year.

2010 Projected Roster

C1: Jorge Posada (2.9 WAR)
C2: Francisco Cervelli (0.8 WAR)

1B: Mark Teixeira (5.1 WAR)
2B: Robinson Cano (4.2 WAR)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (5.1 WAR)
SS: Derek Jeter (3.5 WAR)
INF: Nick Johnson (2.4 WAR); Ramiro Pena (0.7 WAR)

OF1: Curtis Granderson (4.9 WAR)
OF2: Nick Swisher (2.8 WAR)
OF3: Brett Gardner (2.1 WAR)
OF4: Randy Winn (0.8 WAR)
OF5: Jamie Hoffman (0.0 WAR) 35.3

SP1: CC Sabathia (5.5 WAR)*
SP2: Javier Vazquez (4.9 WAR)* 45.7
SP3: A.J. Burnett (3.2 WAR)*
SP4: Andy Pettitte (2.9 WAR)*
SP5: Chad Gaudin (0.9 WAR)*–note: split between starter and reliever

CL: Mariano Rivera (2.2 WAR)*
SU: Phil Hughes (2.8 WAR)*–note: mostly as a starting pitcher
RP: Alfredo Aceves (0.7 WAR)*
RP: David Robertson (1.2 WAR)*
RP: Joba Chamberlain (2.5 WAR)*–note: mostly as a starting pitcher
RP: Damaso Marte (0.6 WAR)
RP: Sergio Mitre (0.2 WAR)­—split between starter and reliever

2010 Projected Total WAR: 62.9

In case you were wondering, yes, I did check my math.

So here’s what the Yankees have, of value, that they didn’t last year: 1) Curtis Granderson, 2) a full season of A-Rod, 3) Javier Vazquez, who, according to WAR, was actually better than CC Sabathia last season.

The downside is that they lost Matsui, Cabrera, and Damon, all of whom are serviceable, but not amazing players. Besides, I think the Phillies Nation commentariat has made its feelings on Damon quite clear.

It’s also rather unlikely that Derek Jeter will repeat his 7.4-win season from last year. I think he’s being underrated (along with about three-quarters of the position players on this team) by CHONE, but he’s not going to post his numbers that would have put him in the MVP discussion had Joe Mauer not had the season that he had.

Some things you might want to look out for. Curtis Granderson’s not a big dude, so his power goes overlooked. But if that short porch in right field at New Yankee Workshop lets Johnny Damon (career .489 slugging percentage) tie his career high in home runs at age 35, Granderson (career .484 slugging percentage) could easily hit 30 or more at age 29.

You also might find the battle for fifth outfielder somewhat interesting. The favorite, as of right now, is Jamie Hoffman, a Rule V pick from the Dodgers, who hit .182 in limited action last season. However, Rule V outfielders from the Dodgers have a good track record—just look at Roberto Clemente, Shane Victorino, and…well…anyway…

But the guy who’s up against Hoffman is former Phillies farmhand Greg Golson, who, I’m sure, would appreciate you calling to say hi the next time you’re in the Bronx.

The Yankees are also coping with the aging and potential loss of Jorge Posada with a prospect that, frankly, I’m more excited about than any other in baseball, including the Strasburg/Heyward axis.

Jesus Montero is a 20-year-old Venezuelan catcher. He’s 6-4, 225 pounds, and slugged .562 in two levels of the minors last year. He’s obviously a long shot to make the team out of spring training, but a power-hitting righty bat with great plate discipline (he only struck out 47 times in 379 plate appearances last year, great for a power-hitting teenager) is a tremendous commodity.

I’m really high on Montero, in case you couldn’t tell. Not only do I think that he’d be an able replacement for Posada, I think he’s got a chance to be the greatest player ever named after a car. Who’s he got to beat? Renyel Pinto? Yovani Gallardo? Lew Ford? I guess Ichiro Suzuki counts…I guess I take that back.

Now, because Montero is a big, unweildy dude and he hits so well, the Yankees are considering moving Montero to first base or DH. What a waste. Mashers, I mean, true mashers (or, to offend my good friend Special Agent X, “professional hitters”) are hard to come by, particularly at catcher. How many teams now have catchers hitting 3-4-5 that turly belong there? Three? I figure the list of catchers in the game right now who are truly great hitters is only three players long: McCann, Mauer, and Victor Martinez.

The Yankees got tremendous mileage out of Hideki Matsui (much to our dismay in the World Series), a man who could not play the field at all, as a DH. It’s not necessary to move someone out from behind the plate because he’s a good hitter. Not all catchers field like Yadier Molina or Carlos Ruiz. Those that do hit like Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz. History, particularly Yankee history, is littered with catchers of limited defensive ability but prodigious offensive skill.

But back to the Yankee team that will take the field Opening Day. I’ll be honest with you, boys and girls. I don’t see any way around this team that doesn’t involve some sort of subterfuge. You can’t beat them. They have no weaknesses.

In today’s Total WAR Project, we visit the famous story of the jilted ex-boyfriend. You know the feeling when, as Gloria Gaynor famously sang, “you see me with somebody new,” and your heart immediately falls into your colon? Well, it’s not exactly like that, but there will always be a sense of “what-could-have-been” for Phillies fans with Cliff Lee. Yes, the Phils dumped him for a stud, but the grass is always greener, etc. Sort of like when I broke off my torrid romance with Holly Hunter to be with Kate, my Long-Suffering Girlfriend. I’m happy now, but every time I watch Broadcast News, there’s that little twinge of regret. But I digress.

We have identified, studied, and otherwise examined the six teams that are most likely to deny the Phillies the pennant, either by preventing them from winning the division or Wild Card or by knocking them out in the NL playoffs: the Braves, the Mets, the Rockies, the Cardinals, the Dodgers, and the Brewers.

And so we journey to the mystic American League West to take a look at the first of three teams that could give the Fightins the most trouble in the World Series: The Seattle Mariners.

2009 Roster

C1: Rob Johnson (0.3 WAR)
C2: Kenji Johjima (0.9 WAR)

1B: Russell Branyan (2.8 WAR)
2B: Jose Lopez (2.6 WAR)
3B: Adrian Beltre (2.4 WAR)
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt (-0.8 WAR); Josh Wilson (0.5 WAR); Ronny Cedeno (-0.7 WAR); Jack Wilson (0.1 WAR)
INF: Jack Hannahan (0.5 WAR); Mike Sweeney (0.4 WAR)

OF1: Franklin Gutierrez (5.9 WAR)
OF2: Ichiro Suzuki (5.1 WAR)
OF3: Endy Chavez (0.9 WAR)
OF4: Ken Griffey, Jr. (0.3 WAR)
OF5: Bill Hall (-0.5 WAR)

SP1: Felix Hernandez (6.9 WAR)
SP2: Jarrod Washburn (2.7 WAR)
SP3: Ryan Rowland-Smith (1.5 WAR)
SP4: Eric Bedard (1.9 WAR)
SP5: Ian Snell (0.3 WAR)
SP6: Jason Vargas (0.4 WAR)

CL: David Aardsma (1.9 WAR)
SU: Mark Lowe (1.3 WAR)
RP: Miguel Bautista (0.1 WAR)
RP: Sean White (0.7 WAR)
RP: Shawn Kelley (0.0 WAR)
RP: Brandon Morrow (0.2 WAR)
RP: Carlos Silva (-0.1 WAR)
RP: Garrett Olson (-0.8 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 37.7

For those of you keeping score at home, statnerds absolutely love this team. They act like Beatles groupies around GM Jack Zduriencik, worship upon the altar of Franklin Gutierrez, who posted off-the-charts defensive numbers as a center fielder last year and broke off a 5.9-win season (just better than Matt Holliday and Kevin Youkilis) despite only hitting .283 with 18 home runs and a .339 OBP. They won 85 games last year, despite only scoring 640 runs and being outscored by 52 runs.

Last season, this was a very top-heavy team. The two best non-pitchers, Ichiro and Gutierrez, made up more than half of the total value of Seattle’s position players. Those two, plus Felix Hernandez and 2/3 of a season of Jarrod Washburn, were more valuable than the rest of the team combined.

Zduriencik took over in 2008 and has since dealt freely. The theory behind the Mariners is to set the tactical clock back about 95 years. Assemble a team of guys who get on base and play great defense in this ridiculously big park and hitch your wagon to a couple top-flight starting pitchers.

The Mariners finished 4 games over .500 while carrying arguably the worst position player (Betancourt) and the worst pitcher (Silva) in baseball. Both have since been cashiered, and a frenzy of moves has made this team into a contender and the obligatory “team no one wants to face in the postseason.”

2010 Projected Roster

C1: Rob Johnson (0.6 WAR)
C2: Adam Moore (0.3 WAR)

1B: Casey Kotchman (0.9 WAR)
2B: Jose Lopez (2.6 WAR)
3B: Chone Figgins (3.2 WAR)
SS: Jack Wilson (1.3 WAR)
INF: Jack Hannahan (1.3 WAR); Ryan Garko (0.8)

OF1: Franklin Gutierrez (3.0 WAR)
OF2: Ichiro Suzuki (2.9 WAR)
OF3: Milton Bradley (1.7 WAR)
OF4: Ken Griffey, Jr. (-0.6 WAR)
OF5: Eric Byrnes (0.5 WAR)

SP1: Felix Hernandez (6.0 WAR)
SP2: Cliff Lee (6.0 WAR)*
SP3: Eric Bedard (2.3 WAR)*
SP4: Ryan Rowland-Smith (2.7 WAR)*
SP5: Ian Snell (1.8 WAR)*

CL: David Aardsma (1.2 WAR)*
SU: Mark Lowe (0.8 WAR)*
RP: Brandon League (1.1 WAR)*
RP: Sean White (0.5 WAR)*
RP: Shawn Kelley (0.5 WAR)*
RP: Ricky Orta (o.o WAR)–No previous ML experience
RP: Jason Vargas (0.6 WAR)*
RP: Kanekoa Texeira (0.0 WAR)—No previous ML experience

2010 Projected Total WAR: 43.5

Now, I’m not really sure what to make of these predictions. I wouldn’t bee too swayed by the higher WAR total–the FanGraphs fan rankings have a tendency to systematically overrate. However, CHONE foresees that the values of Franklin Gutierrez, Chone Figgins, and Ichiro will each be cut in half. I have no clue why. WAR adjusts for park effects, and it’s not like Ichiro’s ever going to stop hitting .350.

On the other hand, the advanced fielding stats (or as some say, “metrics,” a term I tend to avoid because I find it pretentious) tend to be somewhat finicky from one year to the next, and defense was, after all, the foundation of Gutierrez’s absurd value.

The Mariners also lost their only two big power bats: Beltre and Russell Branyan. That those two were the heart of the Mariner order last year should tell you everything you need to know about this team. They do not have a player on their active roster who hit more than 20 home runs last season. They do, however, start the order with Chone Figgins (.395 OBP in 2009) and Ichiro (.386 OBP), so whoever does hit third, most likely Bradley, will have ample RBI opportunities.

The lack of power could be a problem, or Mariner opponents could suffer Death by 1,000 Hit-and-Run Singles. Who knows?

However, in spite of losing those bats and picking up the “troubled” Milton Bradley, there are a lot of things to like about this team. First, they picked up some dude named Lee who they tell me is pretty decent. Affable Aussie Ryan Rowland-Smith is a solid pitcher. Eric Bedard, once he comes back, could team with Lee and Hernandez to form a potent top-of-the-rotation combination. They also shored up what was a terrible bullpen last year with the addition of Brandon League, a hard-throwing former Blue Jay who was acquired in a trade for Dallas Stars center Brenden Morrow. (I know they’re not spelled the same way, but I still think it’s funny.)

Speaking of bullpen power arms, the returning closer, David Aardsma, has always been a favorite of mine. In 2004, he broke one of Hank Aaron’s most famous records 3 years before his then-Giants teammate Barry Bonds took out the home run record. Aardsma surpassed Aaron for first on the all-time list of major league players in alphabetical order by last name, a record that could stand a while if there’s not a Dutch infielder with a last name that starts with three a’s in a row.

The Mariners also pillaged the Pirates in a seafaring player swap at last year’s trade deadline, pilfering shortstop Jack Wilson and pitcher Ian Snell. CHONE predicts Wilson, a decent hitter and excellent defender, to pick up only a token 1.3 wins. Even if he only does that well, the combination of Yuniesky Betancourt and Ronny Cedeno were literally 1.5 WAR worse than a minor leaguer off the street would have been. It’s still a huge upgrade at short.

Another thing to like is outfielder Michael Saunders, who is not listed here because he’s not near the top of the MLB.com depth chart. FanGraphs rates him as the organization’s top prospect, and Phillies fans might know him as The Guy We Wanted for Cliff Lee But Didn’t Get. Saunders is 23, and in 2009 he turned it on in AAA, cutting his strikeout rate by a third, hitting for more power, and upping his batting average to .310 in 282 plate appearances. In limited duty with the Mariners last year, he didn’t really impress, hitting only .221 with a dismal .057 isolated power. But lots of good young hitters struggle in their first big-league action, so if Saunders can figure it out and crack the lineup, he provides insurance for the aging and fragile Ken Griffey and the batshit-insane Milton Bradley.

The AL West is shaping up to be a difficult division, with 3 teams in the hunt to win it. It’s no lock that the Mariners will even make the playoffs, but if and when they do, they could put the fear of God into the other World Series contenders.

The knock on the Mariners is that they don’t hit. With this pitching staff, this defense, and SAFECO Field, they may not have to.

Three tables away, a man overheard my comment, came over my table, and almost without warning launched into a three-minutes of some of the most hateful invective I’ve ever heard about one Cole Hamels. I began offering some counter-arguments (“Cole was distracted with the new wife and baby” and “Cole was unlucky with his high BABIP”), but this man was hearing nothing of it. He didn’t hear me, because he was screaming so loud and not stopping to breathe, and even if he had, I don’t think he would have cared much about the fact that Cole allowed two more hits per 9 innings in 2009 than 2008, despite almost all other peripheral stats remaining the same.

It occurred to me that the Phillies’ ascendancy in 2007 and 2008 was due in large part to three players who, for whatever reason, were all just abject disappointments in 2009. These three–Jimmy Rollins, Hamels, and Brad Lidge, will all be back in prominent roles in 2010. I don’t think it’s fair to blame these three for the failure to repeat (after all, a lot of things went wrong in that World Series), but I do think it would help if the Phillies had a leadoff hitter with an OBP over .300, a No. 2 starter who’s somewhat more consistent than two-hit shutout one night, then 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings five days later, and a closer who’s not having literally the worst year ever for a full-season closer.

So from these three stalwart Phillies, what can we expect? Whom can we trust?

Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll is my favorite Phillie of all time. Yeah, I’m willing to say that. He’s one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, one of the best basestealers (by percentage as well as volume), and he has good power for a shortstop (about 20 homers and 40 doubles a year). However, he’s never hit .300 in a full season (even in his MVP year he hit .296) and he’s never had an OBP above .350, which, combined with his power, leads me to believe that the leadoff spot might not actually be the best place for him.

But will he replicate last year, when, up until the All-Star break, he was a faster, better-groomed Eric Bruntlett? I say no, because since 2004, he’s been remarkably consistent, throwing up .290/.340/.450 seasons like clockwork, with the exception of 2007, when his slugging percentage jumped about 50 points from 2006 and he won the MVP. Even post-All-Star last year, his batting average jumped 50 points from the first half and his slugging percentage jumped 150 points. But his OBP, even in the second half, was still only .306, which leads me to wonder if J-Roll might be done as a leadoff hitter. He’s still an incredibly valuable player, with his power, speed, and defense, but as little as he walks (and, at 31 on Opening Day, we can probably expect him to start declining slowly in the next couple years), he might be better-suited to hit 6th in the order if his batting average continues to slide. We’ll see. I think expecting a second-half Rollins all year next year is reasonable.

Cole Hamels
This post over at The Fightins pretty much sums up how I feel about Cole Hamels in 2009. It’s a great read, and very thought-provoking, and I’m not just saying that because they quote my friend and colleague Paul Boye liberally in the piece. For those of you without the time and inclination to click the link, here’s a brief summary. Much of pitching is luck. You can give up a 390-foot fly ball or a liner hit right on the screws and it can be an out depending on whether it’s hit at a fielder or not. As we so often on ESPN, the difference between an out and a double is often how well the fielder reads the ball off the bat. The pitcher can control strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and to a certain extent, whether the hits he gives up are ground balls, fly balls, or line drives. With that said, the biggest difference statistically between Cole Hamels 2008 and Cole Hamels 2009 was that kind of luck.

He kept striking people out at the same rate, walking people at the same rate, giving up the same percentages of grounders, line drives, fly balls, and pop-ups. But while in 2008 the only way to score against Cole Hamels was with the two solo homers a game he was good for, in 2009, he gave up a phenomenal number of dying quails, Texas Leaguers, and broken-bat toppers for hits.

But while I said that luck was the biggest factor in Cole Hamels’ disappointing 2009, I didn’t say only. When things were going well, he was still the same, and you got that brilliant complete-game shutout in Dodger Stadium on less than 100 pitches. But when those cheap bloopers started falling in, you could almost visibly see the wheels falling off. This is what happened in Game 3 of the World Series, incidentally. While 2008 Hamels would have shaken off the A-Rod Camera Homer and gotten on with his night, 2009 Hamels went to pieces.

I suspect that part of this was due to Cole Hamels becoming a father for the first time at age 25 during the playoffs. I don’t fault him if his head was miles away during the playoffs–mine would have been too. I suspect that part of this was, yes, due to the lost focus and band conditioning while he was doing Letterman and the banquet circuit in the offseason, and letting his wife slowly emasculate him in magazine condominium ads.

So what do I think for 2010? I think Cole (whom we haven’t heard much from since that Game 3, by the way) has gone to Tibet or something to train without distractions. I think he’s learned from what worked in 2007-08 and what didn’t work in 2009. I think he’s taken the Lee/Halladay hoopla to heart. I think he’s going to come back, at 26, in eff-you mode, possibly with a third effective pitch, and break off 200 strikeouts, an ERA at or below 3.00, and, if the stars of run support and the bullpen align, make a run at 20 wins. I think he’ll make some Cy Young noise. There’s no way he’s that unlucky again for a whole season, and there’s no way he’s that unfocused all season again. I think the Cole Hamels of 2010 will be arrogant, rejuvenated, and effective.

Brad Lidge
In baseball, people say “best ever” or “worst ever” far too often. But Brad Lidge’s 2009 was an unmitigated disaster, a test case in which we find out what a pitcher with an average fastball and a devastating slider turns into when he’s suddenly a pitcher with a terrible fastball and a league-average slider. Suddenly, the walks, which aren’t an issue when you’re giving up two-thirds of a hit an inning and striking out double digits every nine innings, lead to blown save opportunities and, by my estimation, a difference of as much as eight game in the standings.

Here’s what we know. Brad Lidge was never completely healthy in 2009. We know this because he went on the DL mid-season and wasn’t any better when he came off, plus he’s had two different surgeries this offseason. The second, a knee operation three weeks ago, should rule him out for Opening Day. Good. I don’t want him rushed back. I want him to take far too long to rehab the knee, not because I don’t want him on the roster, but I don’t want 80 percent of Brad Lidge early on at the price of not having any kind of effective Brad Lidge later.

So if keeping him out until May means we get a decent closer for the second half of the season and the playoffs, I’m all for it.

But what kind of closer will he be? I know this sounds like a cop-out, but about halfway between 2008 Lidge and 2009 Lidge. First, it’s hard to get any worse than Brad Lidge in 2009. But even as he gets older, and his fastball starts to lose a little zip, I think that, when healthy, he’s a good closer. And we could have used a closer of any kind last year, even one who’s just “good.”

So there go three of the biggest question marks for 2010. Have a pleasant weekend, brothers and sisters, and stay strong–only 12 more days until pitchers and catchers report.

But on to business. It’s now late January, and that means that the Super Bowl is bearing down on us. For some, that means wings, commercials, and debate over which one of Andy Reid or Donovan McNabb (or both) is to blame for the Eagles not being there. Not me. For me, it means prop bets. Now, sports betting isn’t legal in Pennsylvania or New Jersey, and even if it were, I’m not really much of a gambler. I find point spreads and money lines sort of boring, but during Super Bowl Week, you can bet the over/under for the number of the player who scores the first touchdown, or the set list in Bruce Springsteen’s halftime show. I love these wagers.

So it got me thinking, since there is no baseball going on right now, and the Phillies appear to be putting the finishing touches on their team for next year, what prop bets would I offer on the Phillies for 2010 if I were a Las Vegas sportsbook?

Weight of the Phillies’ home run leader:
230 pounds or less: 3/1
231 pounds or more: 1/3

The Phillies famously had four players hit 30 home runs last season: Chase Utley (190 pounds), Jayson Werth (212), Raul Ibanez (225) and Ryan Howard (259). Now, this might seem like an easy bet, since Howard has led the team in homers four years running. But what if he gets hurt? What if Jayson Werth continues to improve year-on-year (an unlikely occurrence at his age, but he did hit 36 last year)? What if Chase Utley, a notorious fast starter, picks up where he left off in the World Series and continues to hit 4 homers a week for the first month of the season? What if Victorino gets hurt, they move Werth to center, and bring up John Mayberry to play right, then Mayberry goes nuts and hits 40 homers in his first full season? With the odds the way they are, there’s a lot of potential to outthink yourself here.

Uniform number of the Phillies’ wins leader:
Over/Under 34 1/2

Essentially, this is a bet on whether or not you think Roy Halladay’s going to lead the team in wins.

Since 2005, the Phillies’ win leaders have been Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, and J.A. Happ. The team leaders in ERA have been Myers, Myers, Hamels, Hamels, and a three-way tie between Happ, Moyer, and Joe Blanton. There’s absolutely no guarantee that the best pitcher leads the team in wins, even using that relatively simple statistic.

So does the Stormin’ Mormon get the love from the offense? Does he stay healthy? Does Cole Hamels come back in eff-you mode in April and break off a 1972 Carlton season? Does Happ stay lucky? My head hurts.

Who will have more total home runs: Raul Ibanez OR Jeff Francoeur, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes combined?

You would have won this bet last year with Ibanez. Probably not this year, but I enjoy talking about the Mets’ inexplicable power outage.

Which will Joe Blanton produce more of on the mound in 2010: strikeouts or gallons of sweat?

Smart money’s on the strikeouts, assuming he picks up a few in  cold-weather playoff games. If he doesn’t, then it’ll probably go the other way.

Who will lead the Phillies in strikeouts?
Roy Halladay: 10/3
Cole Hamels: 5/1
Joe Blanton: 10/1
Ryan Howard: 5/2

You know who my money’s on. Yes, Halladay posted career highs in K/9 for a full season each of the past two years, but you know Howard’s good for another 180 whiffs at least this year. That’d be a great total for a pitcher throwing 200 innings.

Ok, time for one more.

Who will get more press coverage in 2010 (not including box scores and team statistics): Heidi Hamels or Juan Castro?

For those of you who don’t know me, I’ve sort of got it in for Heidi Hamels. I think she’s a little bit of a wet blanket and an attention hog. And it’s paid off: last year she had a front-page feature written about her in the Inquirer that was every bit as long and in-depth as the one they ran on Chase Utley the same season. Certainly she can outdo a 37-year-old utility infielder who figures to get into one game a week, maybe two.

Remember: sports gambling is illegal in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, so don’t try to bet on these. If you do, I won’t pay out. And if you get arrested and make me your one phone call, I’ll pretend not to know you. Goodbye for now.

For those of you interested in how the free agency process works, tomorrow is the day teams must file their Reserve lists for all Major and Minor League levels.

Major league clubs can reserve 40 players, only 25 of whom can be on the active roster between Opening Day and midnight August 31. AAA clubs can reserve 38 and AA clubs can reserve 37, with roster limits of 24 from Opening Day through the 30th day of the season and from August 10 until the end of the season, 23 between these dates. Teams in A, short-season A and Rookie leagues can reserve 35. Class A clubs play with 25-man rosters, while short-season A clubs have 30-man rosters, only 25 of whom are eligible to play in any given game, and Rookie league clubs have 30-man rosters.

Those lists comprise the entire roster of players for a major league franchise. If you are not on any of these lists (and not eligible for the Rule 5 draft), you are a free agent. General Managers like to act fast so they can pick up the cream of the discarded crop at a reasonable price. Expect some hot news in the morning.

In 1977, the Phillies and Dodgers first met during the League Championship Series.  That year, the Phillies won 101 games, a franchise best.  The Phillies took the first game of the series, 7-5, but the Dodgers answered with three consecutive wins.  Dusty Baker was named the Most Valuable Player, but it was game three that stirred controversy.

The Phillies had a comfortable 5-3 lead headed into 9th inning before a huge turn of events.  Davy Lopes hit a ground ball that deflected off Mike Schmidt. Larry Bowa bare handed the ball in mid-air. In the same motion, he fired to first. Lopes was ruled safe, although the replay clearly showed that Lopes was out. Instead of ending the game, the tying run scored.  Bill Russell’s RBI single scored Lopes. The Dodgers won the game and eventually the series.  October 7, 1977 will forever be known as “Black Friday.”

1978′s NLCS featured a rematch. Once again, the Dodgers won the series, 3-1.  Steve Carlton was unavailable until game three because he pitched the National League East clinching game a few days before the NLCS.  Game three was the only game that the Phillies won.   For the second year in a row, Russell drove in the game winning run.

In 1983, the Dodgers dominated the Phillies in the regular season, winning 11 of 12 against their cross-country rivals.  However, the Phillies won the games that mattered most, winning the NLCS in four games.  Carlton shutout the Dodgers to open the series. The lone run came on Mike Schmidt’s home run.  After losing the second game of the series, the Phillies rebounded and won the final two games. Gary Matthews crushed three home runs during the series, earning the NLCS MVP.

In each of these series, the team that won the NLCS lost the World Series.  That changed in 2008.

In game one, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell’s sixth inning home runs off Derek Lowe led to a victory.  Brett Myers drove in three runs during game two.  In game four, Shane Victorino, still furious about a fastball that almost nailed him in the head, homered in the eighth inning to tie the game at five.  Matt Stairs had no problem sending Jonathan Broxton’s fastball “deep into the night.”  Stairs’ game winning homer gave the Phillies a 7-5 win.  Cole Hamels, the NLCS MVP, shut down the Dodgers en route to a 5-1, clinching victory.

This series will feature many familiar faces.  Former Dodgers Davy Lopes, Chan Ho Park and Jayson Werth are against their former team, much like Larry Bowa, Mariano Duncan, Jim Thome, Vicente Padilla, and Randy Wolf.

As the saying goes, history repeats itself.  Will Matt Stairs be the new Bill Russell?  Will Cliff Lee’s unavailablility until game three prove to be costly like Steve Carlton in 1978?  The umpires have missed several calls throughout the postseason; will there be another missed call as big as “Black Friday?”  These two teams can’t look at the past. They are looking to build their own legacy, and the Phillies hope it’s the same as 2008.  As Jimmy Rollins said: “it’s going to be one of those epic series.”

Brad Lidge’s time as a closer must be numbered. After last year, Lidge has been given a free pass, but it’s time to rip it up. With nine blown saves, a 7.33 earned run average, and 1.80 walks and hits per innings pitched, he can’t continue to be the Phillies closer. The Phillies have other options.

When Lidge was on the disabled list earlier this year, Ryan Madson took over as closer.  However, he was also victimized.  Madson has of record of 4-4 and is 4/8 in save opportunities.  He has a 2.95 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  He strikes out 9.1 batters per nine.  Overall, they are decent numbers, but most of his struggles have come as closer.  While trying to adjust to his new role, perhaps he tried too hard.  Giving him another chance is worth a shot.

Brett Myers went down with a hip injury, but is recovering faster than expected.  There is a chance Myers will be back as a reliever.  He has closing experience, in 2007, when he went  5-5 with a 2.87 ERA.  He saved 21 games in 24 opportunities and opponents batted just .229 against him.  As a closer, he was a whole different animal, striking out 64 in 53.1 innings.

With this being his contract year, Myers would like to make an impact any way he can.  He has experience, and was successful at it.  He loved it, and was upset with the Phillies converted him back to a starter the following year. Myers should not immediately jump into the closers role, but depending on his outings, he could find himself in the ninth inning.

Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, and others could close, but they aren’t the best options.  They have been successful in the roles they are currently in, especially Park.  When J.C Romero returns, he would give the Phillies another option, but with the number of base runners he allows via walks, he probably won’t fare well.

Charlie Manuel wants to “stick to his guy,” but how many more blown saves will it take? After being the National Leagues’ best closer in 2008, Lidge has been the worst closer in baseball this season, sporting the most blown saves and highest ERA of any reliever. As long as Lidge is pitching the way he currently is, he can not close. The best option is Madson or Myers, once he returns.

-Amanda Orr

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We Will Miss You, Brad Lidge

This is in no way an obituary for our fair closer Brad Lidge.  It is, in essence, a kind reminder of what was, and what should be.

It’s not every season you can be perfect, but in 2008, Brad Lidge was just that.  To think that 2009 would be similar was justifiable, though not recommended.  Not in the fickle game of baseball.  Only certain closers can be counted on year after year after year.  Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and a select few have been able to relish the role in the 9^th inning.  Lidge has not done that.

Last night against Pittsburgh, we witnessed another piece of confidence torn from the fabric of number 54.  Is there any left from here on out?

Let us not forget the special things Lidge brought forth less than a year ago.  The anchor of a stellar bullpen nailed down games with ease, unlike anything Phillies fans had seen since Steve Bedrosian in the 80’s.  And even Bed Rock couldn’t hold a candle to what Lidge put forth.

Lest we forget, it’s a “what have you done for me lately” world we inhabit, and that same slogan holds true in baseball.  Brad Lidge cannot close games now.  At least not every game.  And while Charlie Manuel has gone through the manual on how to approach the subject, I’m afraid the options are limited.

My theory: closer by committee.  There are several able arms that have withstood the pressure in late inning situations.  With Madson throwing 98, Park on point, Eyre a shoo-in against lefties, and possibly a healthy and hungry Myers set to return, there are options here.  Go with the gut feeling.

If Madson matches up well against the hitters in the ninth, go his way.  Two lefties about to come up?  Call on Eyre.  Looking for a change of scenery?  Give Lidge a shot here and there.

Try this for the next month and at the end of September, come to a conclusion for the playoffs.  If a CBC still works, go with it.  If Madson is simply on fire, run with him.  If Myers jumps back in and remembers how to be a closer, then he can be your man.

Cholly is a smart individual; that much is certain.  The mind games he has attempted to play with Lidge have failed, but you cannot blame him for trying. In a similar situation with Jamie Moyer, Manuel and the staff made a tough decision on a guy who helped the Phillies win games.  Now, another decision like that has to be in the works.  It’s time for real change.  The Phillies have some room to maneuver here with such a large lead in the NL East.  So trial and error should not hurt any more than Lidge has.

We will hardly forget Brad Lidge’s magical season of a year ago.  However, that chapter is closed and its time open another.  Make it happen, Cholly.

-Pat Gallen

As we enjoy back-to-back wins for the Phillies (and hopefully three in a row on Monday afternoon) it pains me to jump back into a sore subject.  Not trying to be the buzz kill.

On Saturday night in Queens, the Phillies got a superb effort out of J.A. Happ once again.  He fought hard through seven innings, giving up eight hits, but only one run, en route to a 4-1 Phils victory.  While Happ fought on the mound, the fighting in the stands came to a head.

Undoubtedly you’ve either seen the live broadcast, the YouTube video, or heard through the grapevine that two parties – one rooting for the Phillies, the other for the Mets – got into fisticuffs in the seats, leading to ejections and the like.  There was beer spilling and haymakers, all in what intends to be a family-friendly environment.

It is yet another black eye for our fan base.  Maybe it wasn’t the Phillies fans fault, perhaps it was the New York group egging them on. But nonetheless, it adds to the already incessant negativity tossed our way.

I’m here to say the machismo has gone far enough. Whatever Mets fans do is their own business.  If they want to brawl in the stands and act like jerks, then so be it.  But lets be better than this, Phillies Nation.  I’m as sick as you are of having to hear that our town is filled with bullies and thugs.  That we care only about drinking and fighting, more so than what goes on within the diamond. That our crime rate reflects on our baseball-loving supporters. That our education system breeds incompetence and unsportsmanlike behavior.

Phillies faithful are often thought of as some of the most passionate and knowledgeable in all of sports.  But they also let their blood spill onto the canvas more than most, and it’s a trend that needs reversing.

As for Saturday, the long, hot day, on top of the alcohol, added to the heated conflict that has been brewing for nearly three seasons. People will fight – it’s nature.  We witnessed this recently in our own backyard as a Phillies fan was killed in the CBP parking lot over a spilled beverage.

However, this shtick is growing tired, and its time for us all to do something about it.  I’m not here to tell people how to live or how to react to a confrontation.  But I can say that I hope we all grow up enough to realize that we are rooting for a team, a band of brothers, and that our own agendas should be set aside for the betterment of those around us.

The black eye continues to grow.  And while some believe they are simply backing their hometown team by fighting for them, in actuality it hurts us as a whole. Unfortunately, it’s the few who believe their masculinity is more important than being a decent person that have pushed this issue to a new level. Let’s use our best judgment from here on out, because the fact is we are the best fans in sports, and we do put forth the most passion and we are the most well informed baseball followers.  But the extra-curricular activities are barbaric and just plain disgusting.

We can at least try to get along.