Phillies Nation

So we’ve learned that Chase Utley probably won’t be ready for Opening Day, a reality many of us assumed but wanted badly not to hear this season.

In the last episode of Phillies Nation TV, Pat asked why Utley hadn’t yet seen an inning in the field or a plate appearance against live pitching. It was a valid question that offered more and more room for pessimism the longer you thought about it.

Sure, resting Utley was logical. But if he was going to be OK, why not give him an inning a week or a few at-bats just to catch him up to speed? Jimmy Rollins has dealt with plenty of injuries to his lower-half and he’s been out there regularly this Spring. It just didn’t bode well and on Monday, Phillies Nation (the collective, not the site), awoke to a nightmarish scenario that may turn out to be passable, but may usher in the end of the Chase Utley era in Philadelphia.

That’s the longer-term scenario we’re looking at here. Utley is 33 with a contract that expires after next season and knees that will never get better. The last part of that sentence has been stated both subtly and explicitly by Charlie Manuel and Ruben Amaro.

Utley is missing cartilage in his knee, and as Amaro put it Monday, “you just can’t grow back cartilage.” There is likely bone-on-bone friction in Utley’s knee(s), and all you have to do is imagine the feeling of moving laterally with bones rubbing each other to understand why such a cautious approach is necessary and why Utley is probably destined for DH-duty in his next deal.

This isn’t a curable condition, it’s one you attempt to manage, but the fact remains that nobody in the Phillies organization knows what is going to happen with Utley in 2012, much less 2013 and beyond. I can guarantee you that nobody in the front office is thinking about how to approach Utley’s next contract because no one knows what he’ll be 18 months from now.

It’s an incredibly sad situation. Utley was on a Hall-of-Fame pace through the end of 2009, when he was averaging a .301/.388/.535 slash-line with 32 homers and 43 doubles in full seasons while playing elite defense (top-1 or top-2 in the sport) at a premium position.

Utley was the player that separated the Phillies from other teams.

This was before Roy Halladay, and for half of 2009, before Cliff Lee. It was after Cole Hamels’ stellar postseason run but before he turned into a four-pitch demon. Utley was what was different about the Phillies. A patient hitter who could hit the ball anywhere, for power and average, reach balls to his left and right that 25 second basemen can’t glove and run the bases exceptionally.

Now, he’s a shell of that.

Continue reading The Utley Era Wasn’t Supposed to Go Like This

The Nix/Wigginton platoon might not struggle like Ryan Howard in early-May of 2011, but it won't flourish like Howard in mid-June.

I think we’re all getting a bit too comfortable with the idea of Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix playing first base every day while Ryan Howard is out.

With Howard’s latest setback — which I’m glad we all realize now is a setback, even if the word “setback” isn’t used — the possibility exists that The Big Piece doesn’t return until late-June, early-July, perhaps even after the All-Star break. Just think about it… it’s an infection on an incision on his Achilles’. He’ll be in a walking boot for the next 10-or so days, and after that you’d imagine the rehab process either starts over or moves slower than it was in the opening days in Clearwater.

What it means is a whole lot more Wigginton and Nix than we originally anticipated.

Now, I for one have made it clear that I’m a believer in the first base platoon, that it’s a good idea to put two players in situations where they can succeed and refrain from playing them in scenarios where the degree of failure is high.

But what if Wigginton, who hasn’t truly had an above-average offensive season since the year the Phillies won the World Series, is just no longer effective at age 34? What if Nix, who had a .299 on-base percentage last season, doesn’t perform against right-handed pitching?

Continue reading What if the First Base Platoon Fails?

(This article is just over 1,000 words, but I promise you that they’re all worth it in understanding exactly how much money the Phillies will and can commit to Shane Victorino.)

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

A benefit to the Phillies having the second most wins in baseball since 2007 (473, the Yankees have 479) is that few players want to leave.

Going back to that first playoff season since 1993, every free agent the Phillies let walk — save for Jayson Werth — found work elsewhere because the team decided to move on.

Shane Victorino is the latest in a series of players who have expressed their desire to remain in Philadelphia, but his words were a bit more direct than most. Victorino explicitly used the words “hometown discount” this week, which was sonic beauty to Phillies fans and torture to his agents, the Levinson Brothers.

“I’m willing to give up free agency,” Victorino told ESPN’s Jayson Stark at the beginning of the final week of February. “A lot of guys won’t. In the game of baseball, free agency is what every major league player dreams of. You want to maximize your value, and of course I do, too. But what’s important to me is, I want to be here. I love playing here. My family loves the city. I love the city. So when I made that statement (to Todd Zolecki, that I’m not going anywhere), that’s what I meant.”

Victorino likely realized after those comments that no matter how badly he wants to stay in Philly, it isn’t worth making public comments and losing so much leverage. He clarified things a bit for CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury Thursday morning.

“I look at it this way, if it’s a significant difference, I have to weigh my options,” Victorino told CSNPhilly.com. “I obviously love playing in Philly. They made me who I am. That sits in the back of my mind. But I also understand there’s a window in this game. Age and time comes into play. When I say I don’t want to go anywhere — yeah, I call this home and I want to finish my career here — but we’ll see how it goes.

“I won’t say I won’t take a hometown discount, but I also will say I want to maximize my opportunity with not only what I’ve accomplished as an individual, but as part of a team.”

Victorino then made his first public request for five years, the same contractual length Jimmy Rollins sought at the outset of his own free agency.

“I’ll be 32 on the market,” said Victorino. “I can go another five years. I would think even more. I want to go until I’m 40. My agents say I can get a five-year deal on the market. Why not trust them?”

Here’s the part where we examine whether or not five years is a realistic length for Victorino.

Continue reading Phils Can Afford Victorino & Hamels, But Not a 3B

As divulged by MLB Trade Rumors Monday, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt have been classified as Type A free agents, while Brad Lidge and Raul Ibanez garnered Type B titles.

Offering Roy Oswalt arbitration would be way too risky.

Type A free agents, if they are offered and decline arbitration, bring back two early draft picks if signed by another team. The top 15 teams in baseball surrender their first round pick and a sandwich pick (between first and second round) to the old team if they sign the free agent, while the bottom 15 teams give up their second round pick and a sandwich pick. So if the Phillies offer Ryan Madson arbitration and he declines then signs with the Nationals, the Phillies would get the Nats’ second-rounder and a sandwich pick. Make that first-rounder and sandwich pick, because the Nationals had the 15th best record. (Why did I have to pick the most confusing example?)

The Phillies will almost certainly offer arbitration to Rollins and Madson. If either accepts (which they won’t), they would be back with the Phillies next year for a salary that cannot be lower than 80 percent of last year’s figure or 70 percent of the figure from two years prior.

Neither player would accept arbitration because both Rollins and Madson are seeking long-term financial commitments. But how about Oswalt? Would the Phillies offer him arbitration?

Continue reading Phils Would Be Unwise To Offer Oswalt Arbitration

Ruben Amaro and Jimmy Rollins both spoke to the media Tuesday, outlining potential plans for a crucial offseason.

Rollins reiterated his desire for a five-year deal, though conceded that he would take a four-year deal with an option. The option, however, would have to be his option, not one belonging to the team. Team options often go unexercised, meaning that the player is bought out of the last year of his deal for a significantly smaller amount. Examples would be Roy Oswalt, who has a $16MM mutual option for 2012 with a buyout of $2MM, and Brad Lidge, who has a $12.5 million team option with a buyout of $1.5MM. Oswalt and Lidge will almost certainly not have their options picked up.

This is the kind of scenario Rollins wishes to avoid, and he can do so by fighting for a player option — which he’d control — or a vesting option — controlled by things like amount of plate appearances or games played in the previous year(s). Rollins acknowledged that he cannot see himself in another uniform and that there is a “good chance” he’ll strike a deal with the Phillies, but he has made clear time and again that his last contract will be all about years and money, not friendship or loyalty. He’s certainly entitled to that.

Continue reading The Futures of Rollins, Madson, Dom Brown