Phillies Nation

Frandsen might have to get as creative to break camp with the Phils. Photo: AP

As Spring Training’s third calendar week comes to a close, the Phils have fourteen non-rostered invitees still in camp. On Friday, the Phils reassigned catcher Steven

Lerud of the original eight position player invitees to Minor League camp. We’ll take a look at the seven remaining position players and reassess their chances of cracking the big league club. Our original preview can be found here. The remaining seven players are listed alphabetically for your convenience.

Kevin Frandsen

What I originally wrote:

Frandsen was the Iron Pigs’ hottest hitter in 2011, hitting .321 with 3 bombs across 30 games, before being placed on the restricted list for violating MiLB’s restricted substance policy for using Ritalin to treat ADHD without a MiLB approved-waiver. Frandsen, like Orr, plays 2B and 3B, and is a slightly better Major League hitter (.243/.302/.335 v. Orr’s .254/.286/.322). Frandsen, however, rates as a below average defender at 2B and 3B and his offensive output does not separate himself far enough away from Orr to leapfrog him.

Projected Role: Starting utility infielder (2B/3B, not an oxymoron) for the Iron Pigs.

Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: D-. Would need to outplay Martinez and Orr and benefit from an untimely injury.

Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: D. If Frandsen has a monster season in LV, he could earn a late call-up to the big club.

What has changed?

Normally, I’d say Frandsen would benefit directly from Chase Utley’s unknown status and Placido Polanco’s jammed finger. But Frandsen has not put any pressure on the Phillies to keep his name in the conversation (.185/.303/.370 in 27 ABs). It doesn’t help his case that both Michael Martinez (.320/.393/.520) and Pete Orr (.276/.353/.379) are playing above their career averages this Spring, either. Updated Grades: No change.

Continue reading Update: Non-Rostered Invitees – Position Players

Can Scott Elarton complete his comeback by winning a Major League roster spot? Photo: AP

As Spring Training’s third calendar week comes to a close, the Phils have fourteen non-rostered invitees still in camp. On Wednesday, the Phils reassigned four (Dave Bush, Austin Hyatt, Pat Misch, and BJ Rosenberg)  of the original ten pitching invitees to Minor League camp. We’ll take a look at the six remaining pitchers and reassess their chances of cracking the big league club. Our original preview can be found here. The remaining six pitchers are listed alphabetically for your convenience.

Scott Elarton

What I originally wrote:

Elarton comes with an impressive pedigree: former first-round pick out of high school. But, that was in 1994, turns 36 next Wednesday, and Elarton has not played affiliated ball in the US since he posted an 8.24 ERA in 19.2 innings for Triple-A Charlotte in 2010. I also have a sneaking suspicion either he or a family friend routinely edits his Wikipedia page based on all of the superlatives currently on it.

Projected Role: Likely released out of camp

Chances of Making Phils out of Spring Training: None

Chances of Seeing Time with Phils in 2012: Zero

What has changed?

Elarton had, by far, one of the most entertaining Wikipedia pages of all time. Perhaps at the end of the year, his comeback story may be something else to put on there. While by no means a lock to make the roster, Elarton has played his way into at least a spot at Lehigh Valley if not more with his Spring performance. His 8 IP rank 5th on the Phils out of 30 and his 0.75 WHIP is second on the Phils among starters, only behind Kendrick’s more astounding 0.48. Opponents are hitting just .185 against him. Elarton has gone from one-in-a-million to one-in-a-thousand; I would love to eat my words on what could be the Rocky Balboa out of camp. Take caution: there is a still a long way to go and plenty of righties ahead of him. Updated grades: D+ and C-.

Continue reading Update: Non-Rostered Invitees – Pitchers

Who will win the battle for the last spot on the 25-man roster, Pierre or Podsednik? (Photos: AP)

Yesterday, we took a look at the 10 non-rostered pitchers the Phillies are inviting to Clearwater. Today, we’ll feature the 8 position players who have been invited to camp.

The storyline behind the non-pitching, non-rostered invitees to camp is a bit more exciting than that surrounding the non-rostered pitchers. A crowded, and very talented, pitching corp already existing on the 40-man roster limits the opportunities for just about all parties involved. Off the mound? It is almost guaranteed at least one of these players will break camp a member of the 25-man roster.

Continue reading The 2012 Non-Roster Invites: Position Players

Austin Hyatt is the non-rostered pitcher with the best shot to crack the Phils in 2012.

It’s almost here. The grass may still be brown for most of the greater-Philadelphia region, but the sun is staying out longer. It is getting a little warmer. Baseball is almost here.

Oakland and Seattle each received a week head start on the Spring Training process reflective on their trip to Japan, where they open the season on March 28 in Tokyo. All other clubs, including our beloved Phils, will have their batteries report on Sunday.

Not everybody gets invited to big league camp: of course, the 40-man roster reports, but so do select non-rostered minor leaguers and veterans auditioning for a role on the big club. This year, the Phillies are inviting 18 non-rostered players to workout with the big club. Some figure to fit into the Phils’ immediate plans, while others have been invited to train as they prepare for the future. The majority of the players, veterans seeking another shot, will play on two-way contracts hoping they can catch fire or be the beneficiary of an injury. Or both.

Because they are reporting first, the first of two features will take a look at the pitchers the Phillies are inviting. Unfortunately for non-roster invitee pitchers reporting to Clearwater, the Phils already have 19 pitchers on the 40-man roster and a plethora of young, talented arms that will make it near impossible for any one of these pitchers to crack the roster for any period of time. Continue reading The 2012 Non-Roster Invites: Pitchers

Atlanta Braves (86-76, third place in the NL East in 2009)

Happy Easter, everyone, Christ is Risen, and so are the Braves.

I hate this team. I know those Phillies fans who only started following baseball in 2007 think the Mets are the Phillies’ biggest rivals, but for those of us who came of age during the 1990s, there will always be a special dark place in our hearts for the Braves. The 1990s Braves were clean, boring, methodical, reeked of Southern passive-aggressiveness, and ruthlessly dominant. Of course, since 2005, the tables have turned somewhat, with the Braves missing the playoffs each of the past four seasons and the Phillies winning three division titles, two pennants, and a World Series.

While the Braves stumbled through a purgatory of mediocrity for four years, they seem to have figured things out and are being tipped by many pundits to give the Phillies the strongest challenge for the division title.

2010 Season

Since the departure of most of the stalwarts from the 1990s dynasty, the Braves’ greatest strength has been local scouting. They’ve studied and gobbled up high school prospects from Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida, and it’s paid off quite well. That process netted Brian McCann, one of the top three hitting catchers in baseball, world-beating outfield prospect Jason Heyward, and other assets who were traded later, including Jeff Francoeur and Adam Wainwright.

The Braves also were able to make the most of their Caribbean scouting department, bringing in Phillie-killer Jair Jurrjens from the Netherlands Antilles and Yunel Escobar (who, depending on how Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes do this year, might be the second-best shortstop in the division) from Cuba. Martin Prado is a solid average guy who plays multiple positions.

The Braves, with Heyward, Matt Diaz, Nate McLouth, and Melky Cabrera, have tremendous outfield depth, and a formidable starting rotation. While no Atlanta pitcher is quite up to the standards of Roy Halladay, they legitimately go four or five deep with reliable, quality starting pitchers.

I predict Atlanta’s return to the playoffs this season, but as the wild card team. In Bobby Cox’s last year, the organization has given him one more shot at a World Series title.

Prediction: 90-72

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts that analyzes the closest competition facing the Phillies in 2010. The posts use Wins Above Replacement, a metric designed to use offensive and defensive production within a single stat. You can check out the rest of the teams in our series here.

All winter, we’ve been doing this Total WAR Project, and hearing a chorus of “We don’t care about the Cardinals, or Mariners, or Red Sox–what about the Phillies?”

Well, two days before the first pitch of the season, we can finally answer that question–what about the Phillies?–after the jump.

Continue reading Total WAR Project, Part X: Philadelphia Phillies

Florida Marlins: (87-75, second place in the N.L. East in 2009)

The Florida Marlins are truly an amazing team. They’ve got a cycle going: start out with a crap team, draft and scout well, make a few shrewd trades, win a World Series, sell everyone off, and repeat. So far, it’s worked about once every five to seven years.

In 2009, the Marlins won 87 games with a combined team salary of roughly $34.5 million, according to Cot’s Contracts. That means they paid about $397,000 per win. It’s about the cost of a house in the suburbs, but it’s far better than the Phillies’ ratio (93 wins, $127.9 million payroll, $1.375 million per win) or the World Champion Yankees (103 wins, $206.8 million payroll, $2.01 million per win). Now, I’m sure that while Marlins fans (if there are any) are proud that their team paid about 1/8 as much per win as the Yankees, they’d much rather overspend for a World Series title.

But there is something to be said for being able to scare the bejeezus out of the Phillies, Mets, and Braves every year with a bunch of homegrown prospects and reclamation projects. Their scouting department does an excellent job and Fredi Gonzalez, while I think he’s a self-important, tyrannical prick, is an excellent manager who now has won more games than any other manager in team history. While I don’t think anyone in his right mind would pick the Marlins to win the division outright, you’d have to be an idiot to underestimate them.

2010 Preview

We know that Hanley Ramirez is probably the best position player in the National League not named Pujols. We know that Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu will hit some and play terrible defense. Apart from that, the Marlins just have a slew of young players, enough that if Andrew Miller or Cameron Maybin doesn’t work out, they don’t really care.

Look for the Marlins to pitch very well. Josh Johnson might turn out to be the third-best starting pitcher in the division, and is an intimidating presence on the mound at a massive 6-foot-7, 250 pounds. He rode a mid-90s fastball and a hammer slider to a 3.03 FIP and 15 wins last year, good enough results that when MLB ordered the Marlins to go spend some money, they spent it locking up Johnson to a contract extension. He and Hanley Ramirez are the only Marlins signed beyond this year.

Another Marlin pitcher to watch out for is Ricky Nolasco. Think of him as a right-handed Cliff Lee–he was quite good in 2008 but went to the minors in 2009. He straightened out his mechanics and came back up to the majors with his problems fixed. In September and October, he struck out more than 11 batters every 9 innings, a staggering total for a starting pitcher. Look for Nolasco’s 2008-09-10 to be a less-dramatic version of Lee’s 2006-07-08 seasons.

Beyond Johnson and Nolasco, they have the team’s highest-paid player, Nate Robertson, acquired from the Tigers this spring. Of course, the Tigers are paying $9.6 million of his $10 million salary. Beyond him stand a collection of young pitchers, ranging from former No. 6 overall pick Miller (6-foot-7) to Chris Volstad (6-foot-8) to Anibal Sanchez, who’s only 6-foot but threw a no-hitter once. If this season goes south, look for the Marlins to loan their starting rotation to the Heat next year.

If you don’t know the Marlins by now, you will never never never know them–they’re going to be a young, exciting team that finishes a few games over .500 and scares the crap out of the Phillies in September. With the ascendancy of the Braves, the Phillies have a bigger chaser in their rearview mirror, but don’t sleep on the Fish, or your playoff hopes might sleep with them.

Prediction: 86-76

Pittsburgh Pirates: (62-99, 6th place in the N.L. Central in 2009)

Ah, the Pirates. The team of perpetual rebuilding, or so they’ve come to be known over the last two decades. Few stretches of futility compare with the Pirates’ postseason-less run. Last year, their seventeenth straight without an October run, at least showed a bit of promise to cap an otherwise dreary decade. Centerfielder Andrew McCutchen emerged as a solid offensive producer with plenty of potential yet to realize, and Garrett Jones highlighted a bunch of unheralded players who showed flashes of promise, but the team clearly needed to relieve itself of more dead weight and finished with a sickly 63-99 record.

Only McCutchen, Jones and Nyjer Morgan posted OBPs above .350 among the Pirates’ regular starters, and Morgan ended up being traded to Washington mid-season. In fact, four Opening Day starters ended up being dealt at some point last year, with Morgan, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson all being sent packing. It was another tumultuous season filled with losses and turnover, overshadowing the few bright spots found within.

Of the 16 N.L. teams, the Pirates ranked 14th or worse in runs scored, hits, home runs, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases. Of those same teams on the pitching side, the Bucs ranked 14th or worse in ERA and runs allowed and 13th in hits allowed. Optimism was, needless to say, in short supply.

2010 Season

Some in Pittsburgh are not without hope, though. McCutchen shows the promise of becoming a core player, someone the Pirates can build around to, hopefully, form a contending team in the near future. Prospect Pedro Alvarez seems likely to break into the M.L. lineup sometime this summer, and he should join with McCutchen to form a nice one-two punch in the middle of the order.

The pitching staff leaves a little bit to be desired. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm provided serviceable innings, and even Ross Ohlendorf submitted a decent season’s work (albeit with a bit of luck, holding batters to a .265 BABIP, the third lowest in the Majors last year). None of those is really a number one starter, though, and the bullpen isn’t exactly fraught with talent, either. All of the hope for the future of the Pirates – McCutchen excepted – lies deep in the minor leagues. Two-thousand ten likely won’t be a year of reckoning, where the Pirates rise in a 2008 Rays-like fashion to stun the baseball world, but at least 2012 is looking all right.

Hey, when your team has been as disappointing as the Pirates have been over the past two decades, you take what you can get. Honestly, I do see the Pirates winning more games, but for reasons neither I, nor their currently assembled roster, could rationally explain. But you know, I did hear this crazy story the other day about genetically modified pigs sprouting wings…

Prediction: 71-91

St. Louis Cardinals (91-71, first place in NL Central)

Back when when we were at The Phrontiersman, Paul and I did a playoff projection pool with our friends and families (his Yankee-fan girlfriend predicted the outcome of every single series and won). I got in trouble when my predicted NL champion, the Cardinals, got swept in the first round. Since then, not much has changed. They’ve ditched Joel Pineiro and Mark DeRosa’s medical history, but the core remains.

I don’t know how a team with so few quality players can be any better than the 2009-10 Cardinals. They manage it because they’ve got two of the five best starting pitchers in the National League, two quality outfielders (including one, Colby Rasmus, who’s getting a lot of love for a breakout 2010 on the heels of his 16-homer rookie season), the best defensive catcher in baseball, and that dude Pujols.

Albert Pujols is mind-bendingly good, as I’m sure you know. He just turned 30 in January, and has already hit 366 major league home runs. His WAR of 8.5 last year was as good as Ichiro and Shane Victorino combined. He’s literally two all-stars in one. He’s third all-time in career OPS, up with Babe Ruth and Ted Williams and Barry Bonds. At one point late last summer (I don’t know if this held up until October), he was twice as likely to hit a homer with the bases loaded than he was to swing and miss at a pitch. He’s a truly transcendent player, and I don’t know that we’ll ever see the like of him again.

But after Pujols, there’s a huge drop-off to Matt Holliday, and from him, a huge drop in quality to Brendan Ryan, Rasmus, and Yadier Molina, and after that, who knows?

Essentially, the Cardinals won 90 games last year on the strength of Pujols, their top two starting pitchers, and tremendous good fortune. Ryan Franklin held up as a dominant closer for most of the year. Pineiro developed a bowling ball sinker. Zombie John Smoltz turned into a solid No. 4 starter.

Perhaps most ridiculously, Skip Schumaker acquitted himself quite well after converting to second base from the outfield. While infielders move to the outfield quite often with great success (Mickey Mantle, for instance, was originally a shortstop), the opposite almost never happens. But Schumaker, while he didn’t light the world on fire, continued to hit .300 and walk some while not killing the Cards at the keystone. That’s the kind of break the Cardinals always seem to get, and it’s what put them into a position to mount a serious challenge for the pennant.

2010 Season

The good news for Cardinals fans is that the rest of the NL Central is in such a state that they don’t need all the same breaks to get back into the playoffs. I’m going to contradict my esteemed colleague Pat Gallen here, but the NL Central, apart from St. Louis is like a Dane Cook TV special–just one terrible joke after another.

I can’t name more than four Pittsburgh Pirates without using Google. The Reds don’t have any proven star-quality players and are toiling under the leadership of the only manager in baseball whom I’d describe as an albatross–Dusty Baker. In Houston, Ed Wade is trying to win by reassembling the 2003 Phillies. Lou Piniella’s Flying Circus is just getting older and more dysfunctional. That leaves the Brewers, a team that could steal the division, but needs even more lucky breaks than the Cardinals to do so.

St. Louis would be the third-best team (at best) in four of the other five divisions in baseball, but due to fortunate geographical circumstances, they’re in a division where having two good starters and one monster position player is good enough to win 90 games.

Of course, once they win the division, Wainwright and Carpenter go from pitching 40 percent of the time to 2/3 of the time. I’m not saying that’s enough for me to pick them to win the pennant again, but they scare me.

Prediction: 90-72

Chicago Cubs: (83-78, 2nd Place in the N.L. Central in 2009)

The Cubs are a tragic story. It’s difficult to type a sentence like that and not worry about coming off as derisive and condescending, but it’s truly difficult for me to view the Cubs over the past ten years as anything but one missed opportunity after another, fortified by more than their fair share of bad breaks.

How often do we hear about a team’s “window” of opportunity, wherein they’re perceived to have their best shot at contending for a title? Well, the window for the Cubs has all but passed them by. Promises of 2003 with sugarplums and Mark Prior and Kerry Wood dancing in Cubs fans’ heads are long gone. Derrek Lee did rebound to have a stellar year and post a .306/.393/.579 slash line with 35 homers and providing 5.3 wins above replacement, his highest total since his ridiculously good 2005 season (7.5). Aramis Ramirez played well in the time he was healthy, but played only half a season. Geovany Soto, the much-hyped catcher from 2008, had a major regression and never really provided anything of note.

In the outfield Kosuke Fukudome and, yes, Milton Bradley had nice seasons. Both OBPed .375-plus, but only hit 23 homers in a combined 1,076 plate appearances. That, plus Bradley’s rather public feelings of isolation and resentment, led to his being shipped out to Seattle for…Carlos Silva. A mind-boggling trade of a productive player that was, essentially, forced by the fanbase. It isn’t the first and certainly won’t be the last time such a thing happens, but it left the Cubs off worse heading into 2010, whether they rid themselves of a distraction notwithstanding.

What the Cubs did get out of their staff was adequate, perhaps even a fair bit above average at points. The five most frequently used starters all posted ERA+ figures of 110 or better, and a few relievers put up some nice numbers. Sadly, whatever the pitching contributed, the offense counteracted with its poor play, and a defense that posted a -19.8 cumulative UZR. In other words, their run prevention did anything but prevent once a pitch was put in play.

2010 Season

Besting 100 years since their last title, the Cubs have teased baseball fans with the possibility of breaking their storied curse with season after season of renewed potential. Unfortunately, things aren’t exactly looking up as the Cubs enter their 102nd championshiplesss campaign.

The core is aging. The rotation is full of question marks from top to bottom. The bullpen will provide anything but a relief, especially since the loss of Angel Guzman to major shoulder surgery leaves the ‘pen with only Aaron Heilman and David Patton backing up Carlos Marmol with right arms.

Is Carlos Zambrano going to return to primo form, or will he continue to only talk a big game? Can Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster stave off the inevitable power of aging for another season? It’s not as if they’re old, but they’re beginning to reach a point where their stuff will begin to decline.

Marlon Byrd is a nice signing, but will likely not replace Bradley’s on-base skills, though he should remain on the field a bit more. And Alfonso Soriano, for all he’s being paid, looks as though he’s cooked and will continue to be an albatross in left field.

The bench isn’t much to speak of, either. Only Jeff Baker, acquired from Colorado, posted a decent line, and even that came with a .374 BABIP draped across his neck; he’s likely due to regress, as well.

The Cubs are a decent team. In the N.L. – and the Central to boot – they always have a shot at the division crown. But with the Cardinals looking solid and the Brewers featuring a far more potent offense, their window seems to close a bit more as the days go by. I speak pessimistically about their chances, but they will be far from a pushover in 2010. In fact, I like them to be a few games above .500, unspectacular though the season might be.

Prediction: 84-78