Phillies Nation

PHOTO: AP

It has already been a few days since the Dodgers and Red Sox engaged in one of the most unprecedented, and seemingly improbable, swaps in baseball history. While the instant returns have seen the Dodgers lose two straight and the Red Sox win two straight, the deal becomes a defining moment in the paths of both clubs: the Dodgers have shown they are willing to eat and absorb as many bad contracts (Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and, to an extent, Nick Punto) as they can to obtain one piece they truly covet (Adrian Gonzalez) while the Red Sox have shown they are willing to take a mulligan when offered. Both positions effected the Phillies more than what appears on the surface.

First, the Dodgers’ willingness to absorb somewhere between $260-272 million in guaranteed contracts in one deal shows that the Dodgers threat to offer Cole Hamels whatever he wanted and more was real. In this regard, the boogeyman was real – he was in the closet the whole time, counting Magic Johnson’s money, ready to cut as big a check as necessary to pair the lefty Cy Young candidate with Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley to form one of the most formidable rotations in all of baseball.

Second, it shows that the Dodgers were completely serious about trying to create a deal to acquire Cliff Lee off of waivers. Ken Rosenthal stated over the weekend that the Phillies “blew it” by not trading Lee and his approximately $90 million left on his deal to the Dodgers. While it is true that Lee may not be pitching himself into the Cy Young debate, Lee has bounced back in recent starts. After being worth $30.7 million last year to the Phillies according to FanGraphs, Lee has been worth approximately $14.7 million to the Phillies this season.

Continue reading Megadeal Confirms Existence of Boogeymen

PHOTO: AP

As reported on Twitter by our own Pat Gallen, The Phillies have made another trade, this time sending Joe Blanton to the Dodgers for cash OR a player to be named later. Ruben Amaro Jr. implied that the Phillies are hoping to take the player over the cash, and that the Phils are still making moves.

Taking Blanton’s spot on the roster will be B.J. Rosenberg, who was brought up from AAA Lehigh Valley. Kyle Kendrick will start in place on Blanton tonight.

The trade deadline has come and gone but trades can still be made. Perhaps the trade deadline itself should be named differently to assuage the notion that teams can no longer make deals after it passes. All that has realistically changed is the ability to unilaterally make moves. Teams cannot deal directly with one another the way they could before July 31, as players must first pass through the waiver wire before a trade can materialize.

Waivers can be confusing given the rules and different types, but don’t mistake the various forms with how the actual waiver wire works from here on out. The concept itself is fairly simple, and while none of us will ever be 100 percent versed in the minutia, hopefully this here primer can shed some light on how teams will make moves over the rest of the season.

Broadly, the waiver wire comes into play after the deadline for two reasons:

1. To improve parity by giving poorer teams first dibs to improve
2. To ensure teams cannot unload players via some secret pact to help another

The second reason occurs in fantasy sports as well, where a last place team might trade some of its best players to a fringe contender in order to aid that owner’s chances of winning. Of course, real baseball is played on a much larger scale, but the idea remains the same. As for parity, well, it makes sense if a league-wide goal is to improve competition.

Most players are made available via the waiver wire even if the team has no intention of trading them. Sometimes teams do this to try and mask a player they want to move by surrounding him with plenty of other names from their roster. Other times, a team will gauge interest in an all-star caliber player to get a sense of what teams might be willing to offer if he were seriously available. There is no risk in placing someone on waivers because these are revocable, meaning the team can revoke a claim and pull the player back if they want to keep him on their roster. For instance, Cliff Lee was placed on waivers, and a big deal was made over nothing. Him, and guys like him, are always placed on waivers. Even if someone claims him, the Phillies will likely just pull him back, no harm done.

Continue reading How Waivers Work

So long, Shane (Photo: Phillies Nation)

Certain games and specific events stick out to hardcore fans, no matter how many years have passed. That’s just what happens when someone devotes so much of his or her time to a team. The players start to feel like members of the extended family and their great memories become ours as well. I couldn’t tell you what I had for dinner last Thursday, but I know exactly what I did on September 22, 2005: I fell in baseball love with Shane Victorino.

The Phillies were five games behind the Braves in the NL East with only 10-11 games left, but remained legitimate contenders for the wild card berth. They were set to play the final game of a crucial late-season series with those Braves, and after splitting the first two contests, were sending ace Jon Lieber to the hill. The Braves countered with Tim Hudson, who was in his first year with the team. It was one of the most important games of the season for the Phillies, and a clear must-win.

The game was scoreless through eight innings. Lieber was on and Hudson wasn’t far off of that. However, Hudson started to falter in the top of the ninth. He walked Bobby Abreu on four pitches. Two batters later, he gave up a single to then-rookie Ryan Howard. First and second, one out, 0-0 game. Michael Tucker (!) singled Abreu in and the Phillies had finally broken through. Billy Wagner quickly started warming up to get ready for the save situation.

With Wagner getting ready to enter, Charlie Manuel pulled Lieber and decided to instead pinch-hit with Victorino, a September call-up. The Phillies had selected him in the Rule V draft prior to the season and he absolutely tore up the International League, winning the Triple-A MVP award. Over 126 games with Scranton, Victorino hit .310/.377/.534, with 18 home runs and 17 stolen bases. He had nothing left to prove and deserved the call-up. He would soon prove he deserved this pinch-hitting opportunity as well.

Continue reading Farewell, Shane Victorino

The Phillies targeted a select group of relievers in potential deals for Shane Victorino, ultimately deciding on Dodgers righty Josh Lindblom in Tuesday’s trade. Lindblom is 25 years old, under team control until 2017, and features a decent fastball-slider combination with a heater in the 91-94 mph range.

He is also an example of why splits are important in properly evaluating players.

In his brief career, Lindblom has thrown 77.1 innings with pretty decent numbers. He has a career 2.91 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. He has surrendered just over one home run per nine innings. He has stranded runners at a well above-average 85.1% clip (league average is approximately 73%), and has held the opposition to a .270 BABIP. On paper, there is a lot to like about this young reliever.

But his overall numbers are misleading. He has logged over half of his innings in the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, and sports a pretty drastic performance split. The Phillies probably pursued Lindblom because of his contractual status, his makeup, and his results to date, but they aren’t likely to garner the benefit of his home performance at Dodger Stadium. And quite frankly, the road version of Lindblom is a poor relief pitcher right now.

Continue reading The Phils Didn’t Get ‘Home’ Lindblom

Moments after the Phillies finalized a deal sending Shane Victorino to the Dodgers (see story), reports surfaced that the Phils and Giants were close to completing a deal for Hunter Pence.

A few hours and a few issues later, the deal was finalized. Pence is on his way to San Francisco for three players: catching prospect Tommy Joseph, major league outfielder Nate Schierholtz and Single-A pitcher Seth Rosin.

The Phils and Giants had been negotiating all week, but the acquisition of Victorino by their NL West rival likely escalated talks between the parties.

Joseph is 21 years old, was a 2009 second-round pick and entered the season as the Giants’ No. 2 prospect, behind centerfielder Gary Brown. Joseph has a .315 wOBA in Double-A this season and has hit slightly below average relative to his level in each of his first three years in the minors. But then again, he’s only 21, and he’s in Double-A. So growing pains are to be expected. Last season, Joseph hit .270/.317/.471 with 22 home runs and 33 doubles at High-A San Jose.

Scouts consider him a viable catching option, which obviously increases his value to the team, with Carlos Ruiz a potential free agent after the 2013 season. The Phils also have Sebastian Valle waiting in the wings, though his struggles at Double-A have caused some concern. Plus, catcher is one position where depth is welcome. Acquiring Joseph means the Phillies have two solid catching prospects in the system.

Joseph, Rosin and Schierholtz might seem like an underwhelming return, but Joseph is now one of the top prospects in the Phillies’ system, Rosin has some potential, and Schierholtz, if platooned with Mayberry, could be pretty effective. It’s an interesting deal. Here’s why…

Continue reading Phillies Send Pence to Giants in 4-Player Deal

Shane gave the Phillies some great seasons (MLB.com)

The Phillies have sent two time all-star outfielder Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers for relief pitcher Josh Lindblom and Ethan Martin. Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports was the first to finalize the news, via twitter.

Victorino spent six full seasons, and parts of two others, with the Phillies, joining the team  late in the 2005 season. This year, Victorino is hitting .261 with nine homers, but also shows a career-low .724 OPS.

Lindblom, 25, has a 3.02 ERA in 47 2/3 relief innings this year. Some of his other peripherals: 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.70 HR/9, and 38% groundball rate. The homers are bit concerning, but he is young and under team control through 2018. Lindblom is also pronounced “Lind-Bloom” for those who were unaware.

The righty reliever is mostly fastball/slider, topping out around 94 on the gun. He would instantly be there second best relief pitcher upon arrival.

Martin, 23, is currently in Double-A and has started 20 games this season. Over 118 innings, Martin has struck out 112 but walked 61. Walks have been an issue for him throughout his minor league career, allowing 269 free passes in 426 innings in the Dodgers organization.

Domonic Brown is on his way to Washington D.C. to meet the Phillies for their series with the Nationals.

As our Eric Seidman pointed out, it actually made some sense to keep Victorino around next year. The Phillies felt it was time to get as much for him as they could, so on he goes to the team that actually let him go in the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

As frustrating as Victorino can be at times, he gave the Phillies some really great seasons. It was the ultimate low-risk, high-reward player that often times does not pan out. He will be missed in Philadelphia, as the city had grown close with the Flyin’ Hawaiian. However, his contractual demands were over the top in the eyes of the Phillies brass, so they made a move to at least capitalize on his remaining value.

Victorino is the first chip to fall on Trade Deadline Day. It feels like the end of an era. Who will be next?

The new collective bargaining agreement drastically reduced the likelihood that teams get much in return for rental players. Since these players no longer net their suitors draft pick compensation upon signing elsewhere after the season, there is far less incentive to pony up prospects, money or both for two months of an otherwise valuable asset.

He's worth more than friggin' Josh Lindblom.

The Phillies are experiencing this wrath of the rental first-hand, as Shane Victorino isn’t attracting anywhere near the attention he would have under the prior agreement. No, he isn’t hitting the way he did last year, but he’s been on fire since the all-star break, plays a solid center field and remains a terrific baserunner. In this depressed offensive environment, his .325 wOBA is above the National League’s .313 wOBA, and par for the course with the senior circuit centerfielders, who have a .323 wOBA. Shane is still having a solid season, albeit not an MVP-caliber one.

The Phillies have essentially been forced to target team-controlled middle relievers in a Victorino deal, not because they desperately need one, but because that might be all they can get for him at this juncture. And if the reports are true, the Reds even rejected a deal where all they would give up is fungible reliever Logan Ondrusek.

The Phillies are making a concerted effort to sell pieces this week, but working under the constraints of the new labor agreement has added a new set of challenges. If Victorino can barely bring back an Ondrusek or Josh Lindblom, the Phillies are simply better off keeping him and extending the qualifying offer after the season. There truly isn’t a downside to extending Victorino the qualifying offer, as the worst case scenario would still prove better than selling him at the nadir of his value for a reliever the team doesn’t truly need.

Continue reading Keep Shane, Extend Him the Qualifying Offer

From 2009-11, Justin Upton hit .288 with an .868 OPS.

According to Ken Rosenthal’s latest report, which went up around 3:05 a.m., the Arizona Diamondbacks are “trying to pull off a blockbuster trade for a premier starting pitcher.”

Rosenthal mentions that the D’backs have the tools to make such a deal happen. They have Justin Upton. They have young pitchers like Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Wade Miley.

The connection hasn’t yet been made, and there’s a very good chance I’ll look like an idiot by the time I wake up Tuesday for even suggesting this… but couldn’t a trade of Cliff Lee for Justin Upton work?

Lee is owed $87 million through the end of 2015. Upton is owed $40 million. The Phillies have reportedly been willing to eat a large chunk of Lee’s salary. Let’s say the Phils pick up $47 million of it, and the Diamondbacks basically get Lee for the same price they’d be paying Upton. Doesn’t it begin to make some sense?

Yes, Upton is 24, a whopping nine years younger than Lee. But the D’backs have soured on Upton. He’s hitting .270 this season with a sub-.400 slugging percentage, and if Arizona has proven one thing in 2012, it’s that it can score without Upton playing at a high level. If you can acquire a legitimate ace for the same price you’re paying your struggling rightfielder, don’t you try it?

Josh Johnson probably makes more sense under this scenario. He’s 28, five years younger than Lee, and is the only other “premiere” starting pitcher believed to be on the market. But then again, Johnson has missed 77 of 165 possible starts since 2007 with injuries. So the mileage and wear-and-tear on the two pitchers is essentially even.

What other available pitchers can be classified as “premiere?” James Shields is good, but not an elite SP, and I doubt the Rays are keen on picking up $40 million.

Felix Hernandez? Absolutely not. Stop it. He’s not on the market. The Mariners couldn’t make that more clear. Who else? Yovani Gallardo? Nah. Maybe Jon Lester, but the dude has a 5.49 ERA this season.

Lee can block a trade to 21 teams. Is Arizona one of those teams? That question hasn’t yet been answered.

A trade like this obviously makes sense for the Phillies. Acquiring Upton (those two words are so unrealistic to type) would solve the corner outfield problems and enable the Phils to comfortably shop Hunter Pence this winter. The Phils could sign a third-starter-type like Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy or Shaun Marcum and still have a solid rotation.

Financially, it would be a wash for the Phillies, but by shopping Pence they could clear a projected $15 million in 2013 payroll. And Upton’s contract is already set, whereas Pence is due to make over $14-15 million in his final arbitration year before commanding a four- or five-year deal in that range.

It all kind of makes sense when you travel down this road, which we’re only doing because Rosenthal doesn’t just throw things up against the wall. If he reports at 3 a.m. that the Diamondbacks are trying to make a blockbuster for a starting pitcher, you listen.

Cliff Lee would make the D’backs a much more complete team. They’re in the top 10 in baseball in most offensive categories, but are middle-of-the-pack in pitching. At 52-51, they’re only 3 1/2 games out of first place in the NL West.

I don’t know. Looser connections than this have been made.

Six years, $144 million. That’s $24 million per year for Cole Hamels, the Phillies’ third $20-plus million pitcher and their fourth player making an eight-figure salary.

Conventional wisdom is that this move cripples the Phillies financially. They’re right up against the luxury tax this season and, with Hamels’ contract, have just under $140 million committed to nine players in 2013: Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Laynce Nix, Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins and Kyle Kendrick.

But is that completely true? Let’s break it down.

Carlos Ruiz, Ty Wigginton and Placido Polanco have options. Chooch will obviously be back, whether at his $5 million option or by way of an extension. Wigginton will probably be back, too, at $4 million. Polanco? It’s hard to make the case to keep him.

Let’s say that the Phillies just pick up Ruiz’s option and extend him during the season. Adding in the money for him, Wigginton, and the relative pennies paid to John Mayberry, Vance Worley, Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Justin De Fratus and Freddy Galvis, the Phils will be at about $148 million for 17 players.

They’ll still need a starting centerfielder and leftfielder, and they’ll need to plug someone into third base unless they plan on splitting duty there between Wigginton, a Mike Fontenot-type and perhaps Galvis.

Oh, and then there’s Hunter Pence, who enters his fourth and final year of arbitration this off-season. A very safe bet is that he commands a $15 million salary for 2013.

Continue reading Want to Compete? Keep the Pitching, Trade Pence