Phillies Nation

As divulged by MLB Trade Rumors Monday, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt have been classified as Type A free agents, while Brad Lidge and Raul Ibanez garnered Type B titles.

Offering Roy Oswalt arbitration would be way too risky.

Type A free agents, if they are offered and decline arbitration, bring back two early draft picks if signed by another team. The top 15 teams in baseball surrender their first round pick and a sandwich pick (between first and second round) to the old team if they sign the free agent, while the bottom 15 teams give up their second round pick and a sandwich pick. So if the Phillies offer Ryan Madson arbitration and he declines then signs with the Nationals, the Phillies would get the Nats’ second-rounder and a sandwich pick. Make that first-rounder and sandwich pick, because the Nationals had the 15th best record. (Why did I have to pick the most confusing example?)

The Phillies will almost certainly offer arbitration to Rollins and Madson. If either accepts (which they won’t), they would be back with the Phillies next year for a salary that cannot be lower than 80 percent of last year’s figure or 70 percent of the figure from two years prior.

Neither player would accept arbitration because both Rollins and Madson are seeking long-term financial commitments. But how about Oswalt? Would the Phillies offer him arbitration?

Continue reading Phils Would Be Unwise To Offer Oswalt Arbitration

Photo AP

Jimmy Rollins. Ryan Madson. Roy Oswalt. Brad Lidge. A Cole Hamels extension. You’ll hear about these names all through the winter.

On Monday, Oswalt and Lidge were let out of their options. Decisions on Rollins and Madson will be coming in the next couple of months. A Cole Hamels contract extension (he’s in his final arbitration eligible year after finishing out a three-year deal) seems imminent.

So, let’s get down to business. Here is a look at the payroll obligations for the Phillies in 2012, and what other players will likely receive. We’ll try and fill out the roster to see what it looks like next year.

Blue: money that the Phillies owe in 2012
Red: educated guess as to how much player will earn in 2012 (arbitration or otherwise)

Infield:

-Ryan Howard: $20MM
-Chase Utley: $15.286MM
-Placido Polanco: $6.417MM
-Carlos Ruiz: $3.7 MM
-Michael Martinez: $425K

$45.828MM

Continue reading Phillies 2012 Roster and Payroll Projections

Don't do it, Ruben. You'll thank me later.

This is an argument I’ve been making for close to a year, and while I’ve hinted at it, in both my post on Domonic Brown’s future and in my season review of Antonio Bastardo, but the Phillies have a need that might run counter to the big-splash mentality by which Ruben Amaro has seemed to run this team since taking over. With Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson entering free agency, the Phillies find themselves without a proven closer heading into the offseason. This presents a rather different conundrum for the team than does Jimmy Rollins‘ impending free agency or even Roy Oswalt‘s. This free agent class is unbelievably weak at shortstop and in starting pitching, which are, of course, two areas where many teams with designs on a playoff berth in 2012 have great need.

For shortstops, it’s Jose Reyes, then Rollins, then Marco Scutaro and Alex Gonzalez. That’s it. Almost every other free agent shortstop is either a replacement-level player or close to it, and if you’re going to put a bad player on the field, better to get that lack of production from a cheap source, such as Wilson Valdez , than to pay a premium to get the same production from a bigger name, say, Yuniesky Betancourt. For pitchers, CC Sabathia seems like he’ll opt out of his contract and re-sign with the Yankees, which leaves Oswalt–whose status for 2012 is still not certain–along with C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, and a littany of former stars (Aaron Harang, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis, and others) to whom time and chance have been so unkind that they resemble their former selves only in appearance. Francis and Webb, who faced off in Game 1 of the 2007 NLCS, are no more ace starters than the sunken wreckage of the U.S.S. Arizona is a functioning ship of the line. That message seems to have reached the Phillies’ front office clearly.

However, this free agent class features a surfeit of proven closers. Even if the Phillies don’t re-sign Madson, they have Jose Valverde, Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Frank Francisco…if the Phillies want to splash big money to buy someone who’s racked up impressive save totals in recent years, they certainly won’t lack the opportunity.

But spending big money on a relief pitcher is a sucker’s bet, and the Phillies, who tend to be very hit (Roy Halladay, Chase Utley) or miss (Ryan Howard, Brad Lidge, Placido Polanco, depending on who you ask) with their long-term contracts would be extremely foolhardy to sign any relief pitcher to a multi-year deal.

Continue reading Dr. Strangeglove: On Constructing a Bullpen

The 2011 Phillies Nation Player Reviews continue today, with Michael Stutes…

The Phillies entered Spring Training with righthanded relievers aged 23, 24 and 25. The 23-year-old and 25-year-old combined to give up seven runs on eleven hits in seven innings. The 24-year-old let slide a lone run on three hits in nine innings. And on the 24th of April, that 24-year-old got the call to The Show.

Stutes allowed runs in only six of his first 31 appearances.

Michael Stutes came up on the fourth Sunday in April to replace a DL’ed Jose Contreras. Contreras had pitched eight scoreless innings in the young season, striking out nine while allowing only eight men to reach base. But the elbow problems began, and Stutes became the silver lining to limited contributions from a recently extended 39-year-old reliever.

Stutes was thrust into high-pressure situations from the get-go and used a 60/40 split on a 93 mile per hour fastball and biting, low-80s slider to get off to a rock solid major league start. He was scored upon in only one of his first 13 appearances and six of his first 31. And this success came at much-needed times…14 of Stutes’ 27 appearances during May and June came with the score tied or within a run, and he allowed a  run only three times. With key relievers like Contreras and Brad Lidge out, Stutes nestled himself into a nice little role in the Phillies’ bullpen, becoming the comfortable third wheel to Ryan Madson and Antonio Bastardo.

Stutes hit a bit of a wall in late-July, all through August, but that was expected from a youngster pitching so many stressful innings. An encouraging September led us to believe that perhaps the wall just briefly stunned Stutes, but a disastrous outing in the ninth of a Game 1 NLDS laugher reminded us that unheralded rookie relievers don’t just speed past growing pains.

The Phils will need Stutes to build upon the good from 2011, which could be difficult with each NL team now having not just a book but a look at him. He figures to be an integral part of the Phils’ pen in 2012. Madson and Lidge are both free agents and, as dominant as Bastardo was for much of the season, the lefty took a bizarrely stiff regression in the final weeks. It is nice to have a young, talented, inexpensive late-inning relief option. The Phillies have done an underratedly good job of developing relievers in recent years, but as long as youngsters keep seizing opportunities, it doesn’t matter who notices.

GRADE: 8.0/10 because, while the late struggles were expected, the constant early successes weren’t. And for much of the season, Stutes contributed to a bullpen that held just about every lead it was given.

There are a bunch of reasons to love Antonio Bastardo, from his bubble butt to his funny delivery to the incredible amount of joy I got from calling him “Tony No-Dad” all year. But the 26-year-old lefty, who was a middling starter prospect back in 2009 (which seems like ancient history), was quite possibly the most electrifying Phillies reliever ever, out of nowhere putting together a season that can only be described as fantastic in both meanings: excellent and resembling something from the works of Samuel Taylor Coleridge.

Over the whole of 2011, Bastardo went 6-1 with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.931 WHIP in 58 innings spread over 64 appearances, but that’s including a September that, due to fatigue or some undisclosed injury, was more latter-day Dennis Cook than latter-day Dennis Eckersley. Take out September and Tony No-Dad compiled an opponent slash line of .114/.204/.223. Over the course of the full season, Bastardo’s fastball was worth eight runs above average and his slider was worth 7.1 runs above average, good, between them, for a K/9 ratio that, in the finest tradition of Nigel Tufnel, nearly went all the way to eleven.

Bastardo was effective against lefties and righties and, despite being the team’s fourth-choice closer after injuries sidelined Brad Lidge, Jose Contreras, and Ryan Madson in order, filled in admirably in that role, saving eight games from nine chances and recording 32 FanGraphs shutdowns against only eight meltdowns. The only NL relievers with a higher net WPA than Bastardo were Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Jonny Venters, J.J. Putz, and Eric O’Flaherty. Bastardo’s final opponent OPS was the fifth-lowest for a Phillies reliever since integration.

Due respect to the voters who said that Ryan Madson should be re-signed over Jimmy Rollins, but not only will Madson cost more money than he’s worth, we should not be afraid if he walks away this offseason, because Tony No-Dad can fill in as the Phillies’ relief ace and, if his 2011 season is any indication, the Phillies won’t miss a beat.

Grade: 9.8/10 That awful last month cast a pallor over what was otherwise an unbelievable season, and made Bastardo’s 2011 outstanding, rather than historic. Still, the Dominican with the funny name and the prominent posterior went from middle reliever to folk hero this summer and deserves all the praise we can heap on him.

Roy Oswalt. (Photo: AP)

From the Phillies:

The Phillies officially declined the 2012 options for the contracts of right-handed pitchers Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt, the club announced today.

“While we will not pick up either of their options, we will remain in contact with representatives for both players about the possibility of bringing them back for the 2012 season,” said Senior Vice President & General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr.  “Brad and Roy both made significant contributions to the Phillies over the past several seasons.”

Lidge, 34, went 0-2 with one save and a 1.40 ERA in 25 appearances for the Phillies in 2011.  He struck out 23 batters in 19.1 innings, an average of 10.7 strikeouts per 9.0 innings pitched.  In four seasons (2008-11) with Philadelphia, Lidge posted a 3-11 record with 100 saves and a 3.73 ERA.  In 22 postseason appearances, he went 1-1 with 12 saves in 12 opportunities and a 1.77 ERA.

Oswalt, also 34, went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA in 23 starts for the Phillies this past season.  In 36 regular season games (35 starts) since being acquired from the Houston Astros on July 29, 2010, he was 16-11 with a 2.96 ERA.

Opinion: I think Ruben Amaro will make a strong play for both men. Lidge is in one-year territory at less than $2 million these days, and I’m not sure teams will be lining up for him with his injury past. Maybe he feels he owes it to the team and will take a minumum contract or a minor league deal.

As for Oswalt, there is always a market for starting pitching, and while he is no longer an Ace, he can be a very good pitcher for several more years. As long as that back doesn’t act up…

(PHOTO: NJ.com)

In 2011, Ryan Madson proved he could be a closer. For years, many wondered if he could handle the ninth-inning duties, as his mental game came under fire because of some poor outings filling in for Brad Lidge in years prior. He shut up the naysayers and then some.

And all of this almost didn’t happen. Jose Contreras began the year as the closer, saving five games early on before dealing with elbow troubles that would keep him sidelined for most of the season. Madson took over and took control.

Madson saved 32 games and blew just two opportunities as the primary closer for the first time in his career. He also managed to stay healthy through most of the year. If you’ll recall, his 2010 season was marred by a broken toe he suffered after kicking a chair in the clubhouse. Not a smart move. This past year, he refrained from such actions, but did go down for about three weeks after a batted ball struck him on his pitching hand. It was a fluke injury and one that did not harm him following the DL stint.

Continue reading Phillies Player Review 2011: Ryan Madson

-As MLBTradeRumors.com pointed out yesterday, Hong-Chih Kuo is likely to be a non-tender candidate after a rough year with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies should be on this guy this offseason. Phillies fans should remember Kuo for his relief abilities against them in the 2008 and 2009 playoffs. In seven appearances between the two series, he allowed just four hits.

From 2008-2010, Kuo was one of the finest situational lefties in baseball. Over 170 innings during those three years, Kuo posted a minisucule 1.95 ERA, and in 2010 had a ridiculous 0.74 WHIP. In ’10, he fanned 73 batters in 60 innings (11.0 K/9) and walked just 18 (2.7 BB/9). Lefties were held to an unfathomable .095 average and .111 with 28 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances.

This past season was a different story for Kuo, who dealt with anxiety issues and also spent time on the disabled list with a back strain. His ERA ballooned from 1.20 in 2010 to 9.00 in 2011. It was a phenomenally bad turnaround; much the same as Brad Lidge, who was perfect in 2008 and then historically awful in 2009.

Continue reading Odds and Ends: Kuo, Doumit

I wanted to say how nice it’s been to get along with the readership over the past few weeks, a state of affairs I’d chalk up to my being neither informative nor persuasive since the first week in September or so. Anyway, I wanted to get that out there, because I’m back to my old ways. I went into this offseason with almost no expectations. This offseason, my wish was really more that the Phillies do nothing rather than do something. I was prepared to make peace with whatever the Phillies did this offseason, provided the following things happened:

1. The Phillies don’t offer arbitration to Raul Ibanez.
2. The Phillies don’t sign any free agent reliever (including Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson) to any contract with a total value of more than $5 million.
3. The Phillies commit to getting Domonic Brown 400 or more major league plate appearances in 2012, preferably as the every day left fielder, but at least in some sort of platoon arrangement with John Mayberry.

Then Ruben Amaro announced that the Phillies wanted to get Brown a full season at AAA before bringing him up to the majors. I was absolutely mystified by this decision, though, judging by Ruben Amaro’s bizarre insistence on giving anyone but Brown a chance to play at the major league level in 2011, I can’t say I was surprised. Ever since he refused to include Brown in any sort of trade for Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay back in 2009, Amaro has, like Hamlet tormenting Claudius, seemed to take some sort of perverse pleasure in treating the Phillies’ top hitting prospect since Chase Utley like a yo-yo, tossing and spinning, and otherwise screwing with Brown for no reason other than he can.

Maybe there’s some sort of plan for Brown that the public is not privy to, and this is part of it. Maybe he’s being kept in the minors because there’s a flaw in his game that the Phillies are aware of but has escaped the eye of the extremely astute talent evaluators at ESPN and Baseball America. If that’s the case, maybe he’s being hidden so as not to harm his trade value. But I find that hard to believe.

I think I actually want this more than 400 plate appearances for the Domonator: to know what, exactly, that plan is.

Continue reading Dr. Strangeglove: On a Plan for Domonic Brown

Ruben Amaro and Jimmy Rollins both spoke to the media Tuesday, outlining potential plans for a crucial offseason.

Rollins reiterated his desire for a five-year deal, though conceded that he would take a four-year deal with an option. The option, however, would have to be his option, not one belonging to the team. Team options often go unexercised, meaning that the player is bought out of the last year of his deal for a significantly smaller amount. Examples would be Roy Oswalt, who has a $16MM mutual option for 2012 with a buyout of $2MM, and Brad Lidge, who has a $12.5 million team option with a buyout of $1.5MM. Oswalt and Lidge will almost certainly not have their options picked up.

This is the kind of scenario Rollins wishes to avoid, and he can do so by fighting for a player option — which he’d control — or a vesting option — controlled by things like amount of plate appearances or games played in the previous year(s). Rollins acknowledged that he cannot see himself in another uniform and that there is a “good chance” he’ll strike a deal with the Phillies, but he has made clear time and again that his last contract will be all about years and money, not friendship or loyalty. He’s certainly entitled to that.

Continue reading The Futures of Rollins, Madson, Dom Brown