Phillies Nation

From 2009-11, Justin Upton hit .288 with an .868 OPS.

According to Ken Rosenthal’s latest report, which went up around 3:05 a.m., the Arizona Diamondbacks are “trying to pull off a blockbuster trade for a premier starting pitcher.”

Rosenthal mentions that the D’backs have the tools to make such a deal happen. They have Justin Upton. They have young pitchers like Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Wade Miley.

The connection hasn’t yet been made, and there’s a very good chance I’ll look like an idiot by the time I wake up Tuesday for even suggesting this… but couldn’t a trade of Cliff Lee for Justin Upton work?

Lee is owed $87 million through the end of 2015. Upton is owed $40 million. The Phillies have reportedly been willing to eat a large chunk of Lee’s salary. Let’s say the Phils pick up $47 million of it, and the Diamondbacks basically get Lee for the same price they’d be paying Upton. Doesn’t it begin to make some sense?

Yes, Upton is 24, a whopping nine years younger than Lee. But the D’backs have soured on Upton. He’s hitting .270 this season with a sub-.400 slugging percentage, and if Arizona has proven one thing in 2012, it’s that it can score without Upton playing at a high level. If you can acquire a legitimate ace for the same price you’re paying your struggling rightfielder, don’t you try it?

Josh Johnson probably makes more sense under this scenario. He’s 28, five years younger than Lee, and is the only other “premiere” starting pitcher believed to be on the market. But then again, Johnson has missed 77 of 165 possible starts since 2007 with injuries. So the mileage and wear-and-tear on the two pitchers is essentially even.

What other available pitchers can be classified as “premiere?” James Shields is good, but not an elite SP, and I doubt the Rays are keen on picking up $40 million.

Felix Hernandez? Absolutely not. Stop it. He’s not on the market. The Mariners couldn’t make that more clear. Who else? Yovani Gallardo? Nah. Maybe Jon Lester, but the dude has a 5.49 ERA this season.

Lee can block a trade to 21 teams. Is Arizona one of those teams? That question hasn’t yet been answered.

A trade like this obviously makes sense for the Phillies. Acquiring Upton (those two words are so unrealistic to type) would solve the corner outfield problems and enable the Phils to comfortably shop Hunter Pence this winter. The Phils could sign a third-starter-type like Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy or Shaun Marcum and still have a solid rotation.

Financially, it would be a wash for the Phillies, but by shopping Pence they could clear a projected $15 million in 2013 payroll. And Upton’s contract is already set, whereas Pence is due to make over $14-15 million in his final arbitration year before commanding a four- or five-year deal in that range.

It all kind of makes sense when you travel down this road, which we’re only doing because Rosenthal doesn’t just throw things up against the wall. If he reports at 3 a.m. that the Diamondbacks are trying to make a blockbuster for a starting pitcher, you listen.

Cliff Lee would make the D’backs a much more complete team. They’re in the top 10 in baseball in most offensive categories, but are middle-of-the-pack in pitching. At 52-51, they’re only 3 1/2 games out of first place in the NL West.

I don’t know. Looser connections than this have been made.

They do it again! The Comeback Kids are back in the house. Credit Jimmy Rollins on the game-winning hit, but Erik Kratz and Carlos Ruiz set it up in the Phillies 7-6, 10 innings victory. It’s their first three-game sweep of the season.

Ty Wigginton had a costly error in the top of the 10th, but it mattered not. The Phillies survive on their final at bat for a fourth straight day.

WORLEY SO-SO

-This is just Vance these days. He was average, at best, working in and out of trouble, getting through just 5 1/3 innings. The 10 hits allowed is alarming, although he was able to combat that by holding the Brewers to just three runs. He did strikeout six. You have to wonder if he’s feeling the effects, even just a little, of the loose bodies in his pitching elbow. Worley has not been crisp in quite sometime and is unable to get past the fifth or sixth inning. His high pitch counts early on are killing his hopes of pitching deeper into games. Again, not a terrible job by Worley, just not overwhelming.

KENDRICK KEEPS ROLLING

-Get the lunchmeat because Kyle Kendrick is on a roll. (Really unacceptable pun there, I know). Kendrick has now gone 19 1/3 scoreless innings with 1 2/3 more today. Liking what I’m seeing from him in the bullpen; he seems most comfortable there.

Continue reading Phillies Sweep Brewers, 4th Straight on Final At-Bat

In sports, the term ‘anchoring’ refers to when fans develop an opinion based off of a specific series of events and hold steadfastly to that opinion regardless of what subsequently transpires. Most of the time anchoring occurs at the start of a season, when a hot or cold stretch can mislead fans into under- or overvaluing certain players. When preformed opinions join anchoring at the bar, lazy narratives are often born. Jimmy Rollins is another perfect example of why anchoring to early season struggles, especially when it supposedly helps confirm a preconceived notion, is folly in the world of analysis.

Yes, Rollins started off slowly. He posted a terrible .259 wOBA in April, with a poor .283 on-base percentage that was actually higher than his even worse .271 slugging percentage. His defense remained solid, but he looked mostly lost throughout his first 85 trips to the dish. Since he hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut recently, and because he is past his prime, it became very easy to assume that Rollins was done; that he was washed up; that his new contract was a joke, because the Phillies were paying $11 million per season to the shortstop formerly known as Jimmy Rollins.

Don't even think about trading him.

Though many would readily admit that, under most circumstances, 85 plate appearances is far too small a sample off of which to base definitive conclusions, the mixture of anchoring to his early struggles and the preexisting belief — or fear — that he is rapidly declining, led to unnecessary widespread panic.

But then something funny happened — Rollins started hitting again. He posted a .289 wOBA in May, which, while still very poor, was an improvement. And he followed that up with a .396 wOBA in June. It may have taken him a while to get going, but Rollins has been tearing the cover off of the ball recently, and his seasonal line is right where we would expect it, even after a very poor two months to start the season.

Even before he started proving that he still has offensive talent in the tank, it would have been foolish to consider trading Rollins. Now that he has once again proven himself capable of hitting at a relatively high level, while flashing all-sport defense at the most important infield position, the Phillies shouldn’t even think twice about trading him.

Continue reading The Phillies Absolutely Shouldn’t Trade Rollins

PHOTO: AP

The Phillies offense is clearly struggling. As a team, the Phils are (out of 16 NL teams) 14th in runs, 16th in walk rate, 14th in OPS, and for you advanced metric fans, 14th in wOBA. They swing at pitches at a higher rate than all NL teams except the Pirates, and swing at pitches outside of the zone more than any other team. As evidenced by their 3rd-best strikeout rate, they can put the ball in play, but they can’t produce runs.

The one thing that stands out is the lack of power from John Mayberry Jr. Last year, his isolated power was .240, meaning that his slugging percentage was 240 points higher than his batting average. It was the highest on the team, and would’ve been top 10 in the NL had he qualified. Mayberry also ended the year with a .854 OPS, which was second on the Phillies only to Hunter Pence. He had a great year, and we all loved him for it, but so far this year he’s been sub-par.

Continue reading Is Mayberry Re-Opening Door for Dom Brown?

It’s official – the Phillies announced they will add some infield depth by signing free agent infielder Mike Fontentot. He will report to extended spring training in Clearwater.

Fontenot, 31, was let go by the Giants on March 30. He’s a career .263 lifetime hitter with a .332 on-base percentage and a .406 slugging percentage.

This seems like nothing more than a depth move as Fontenot represents a slight upgrade over a guy like Pete Orr.

The Nix/Wigginton platoon might not struggle like Ryan Howard in early-May of 2011, but it won't flourish like Howard in mid-June.

I think we’re all getting a bit too comfortable with the idea of Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix playing first base every day while Ryan Howard is out.

With Howard’s latest setback — which I’m glad we all realize now is a setback, even if the word “setback” isn’t used — the possibility exists that The Big Piece doesn’t return until late-June, early-July, perhaps even after the All-Star break. Just think about it… it’s an infection on an incision on his Achilles’. He’ll be in a walking boot for the next 10-or so days, and after that you’d imagine the rehab process either starts over or moves slower than it was in the opening days in Clearwater.

What it means is a whole lot more Wigginton and Nix than we originally anticipated.

Now, I for one have made it clear that I’m a believer in the first base platoon, that it’s a good idea to put two players in situations where they can succeed and refrain from playing them in scenarios where the degree of failure is high.

But what if Wigginton, who hasn’t truly had an above-average offensive season since the year the Phillies won the World Series, is just no longer effective at age 34? What if Nix, who had a .299 on-base percentage last season, doesn’t perform against right-handed pitching?

Continue reading What if the First Base Platoon Fails?

Cody Overbeck has proven himself to be an impact slugger after slamming 48 total homeruns and driving in 154 runs across three levels of the Philadelphia developmental ranks from 2010-2011. Throughout his time in the Philadelphia system, Overbeck, who is regarded for his quick hands and his ability to drive the ball, has been valuable to every lineup he has swung a bat for.

Formerly a third baseman through his first three seasons in the minor leagues, Overbeck, a 6-foot-1-inch 200-pounder, dabbled in the outfield and was primarily a first baseman in 2011 with Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The experience for Overbeck increased his versatility. Continue reading Prospect Nation 2012: #21 1B Cody Overbeck

Victorino's excellent 2011 raises more questions than gives answers. (Photo: AP)

Not one thing stood out about Shane Victorino’s 2011 season and, in many ways, that is a good thing. Victorino has consistently put up very good numbers at a premium position for the Phils for six-full seasons now and is about as complete of a position player that the Phillies currently have on their roster.

Victorino’s exceptional first-half play earned him a trip to Arizona to represent the Phillies in the All-Star Game, but for most casual fans, he went unnoticed. With column after column devoted to debating the worth of the Big Piece, the excitable Flyin’ Hawaiian was in contention for the batting title entering September,   posted a career high slugging percentage 44 points higher than his previous best, and his defense returned to career best levels that helped him win the Gold Glove in 2008.

Continue reading Shane Victorino’s 2011: Solid

We continue on with our 2011 Player Reviews with Placido Polanco.

Placido Polanco started off the 2011 season in a  great way. He was the best Phillies hitter in the month of April, even earning the MVP for that first month by many bloggers and reporters. He hit .398/.447/.524 in his first 26 games, and drove in 19 runs while striking out just five times.

But we all know what happened next. It was as though he simply fell off a cliff with no warning, as he quickly became one of the Phillies worst hitters in the month of May. He hit .248/.289/.294 in 28 May games, and struck out more (11) than he had RBIs (10).

He was bound to bounce back, right? Wrong. Things didn’t get any better for Polanco for the rest of the year, as from June to September, he posted a .241/.310/.284 slash line, again having more strikeouts (28) than RBIs (21).

He was even demoted in the batting order at times, as he recorded 93 plate appearances in the bottom of the order by the time the season was over.

Continue reading Polanco’s Promising April And His Subsequent Decline

Nix brings an added element to the bench. (PHOTO: AP)

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that he Phillies have inked outfielder Laynce Nix to a 2-year deal, pending a physical.

Nix hit .250 with 16 home runs in 366 plate appearances with the Nationals in 2011. He posted a respectable .750 OPS as a platoon/bench player last year and from 2009-11, has a 3.4 WAR. His addition to the Phillies strengthens the bench and brings a solid defender. This also likely means the end of Ben Francisco with Nix and Ty Wigginton in the fold.

Nix did post a negative UZR in the outfield last season, but for his career has a 15.4 UZR total and has only four errors in the outfield in the last three seasons.

Overall, seems like a solid move, as Nix is just 30. He can hit for some pop and is left-handed, giving the Phillies more options off the bench. Nix could also be part of some platoon if the Phils feel John Mayberry Jr. is best suited splitting some reps.