Categories: Posts

As It Stands, The 2009 Phillies Are Worth 88 Wins

I checked out some win shares today, trying to determine exactly how much the Phillies were losing and/or gaining for 2009. You can see win shares here.

2008 Phillies: 274 win shares = 91.3333 wins.

Removed
Pat Burrell: 21 WS
Chris Coste: 10 WS*
JC Romero: 3 WS**
Rudy Seanez: 3 WS
Tom Gordon: 2 WS
So Taguchi: 1 WS

* hypothetical
** expected loss of time

The Phillies now have 234 win shares = 78 wins.

Added
Raul Ibanez: 23 WS
Chan Ho Park: 6 WS
Ronny Paulino: 3 WS
Gary Majewski: 0 WS

The 2009 Phillies now have 266 win shares = 88.6666 wins.

If the Phillies are finished with offseason additions, don’t fret. The three major midseason additions totaled 7 win shares, so a 7-share addition during the 2009 season will put the Phillies back around 91-92 wins. Is the 266 total accurate? Maybe, maybe not. We can hope that totals increase for Brett Myers (6 WS), Geoff Jenkins (5 WS), Joe Blanton (3 WS), JA Happ (2 WS), Kyle Kendrick (2 WS), but then again, we can hope that totals don’t decrease for Shane Victorino (21 WS), Jayson Werth (18 WS), Brad Lidge (13 WS), Jamie Moyer (13 WS) and Chad Durbin (8 WS).

Win shares are a crap shoot, but are usually quite accurate in determining value to a team’s success. Say everything remains as is for the playes reaching or in their prime – that includes Vic, Werth, Lidge and Durbin. The best addition the Phils may receive in 2009 is a full season of Blanton and Happ, and improved play by Jenkins. Those things alone could give the Phillies another 12-15 shares, which could put them in the 95-97-win range.

Of course, if Chase Utley misses a lot of time, the Phils could lose a bunch of shares, as he accounted for a team-high 30.

So as it stands, the Phils offseason is a minor disappointment from the value standpoint; however, it seems the Phils are really hoping their younger players increase their success levels, while their very veteran players sustain or improve. At this point, it’s not a bad theory.

Tim Malcolm

Tim first found the Phillies as a little infant at Veteran’s Stadium, cheering on a Juan Samuel game-winning home run in his very first game. With the pinstripes in his blood, he witnessed Terry Mulholland’s 1990 no-hitter, “Steve Carlton Night” at the Vet, game three of the 1993 World Series, countless games during the charmed 2008 championship season and various road excursions. Since November 2007 Tim’s been writing about them daily at Phillies Nation, becoming one of the world’s most popular Phillies scribes. You can catch him on Twitter and Facebook, as well. When he’s not talking about the Phils he’s relaxing with a St. Bernardus ABT 12 or one of his many favored brews.