2009 Projection: Brett Myers
Age: 28 (29, Aug. 17)
2008: 190 IP / 10-13 / 4.55 ERA / 65 BB / 163 K / 2 CG / 1.38 WHIP
Summary: It was a crazy season for Brett Myers. The righty had a horrendous first half (5.84 ERA) and a fantastic second half (3.06 ERA). In the time between then he learned to become a pitcher in the minor leagues over a handful of starts. Sounds weird, but it’s true. Myers returned in 2008 to throw more curveballs, place his fastballs better and keep his head in check. Everything worked well and his finish was respectable, but not quite solid. Optimism reigned after the season, however.
Career Level: Prime (Year 1)
Green Flags: Everything in the second half was so much better than the first half. In four fewer starts he surrendered 37 fewer runs, walked 23 further hitters, gave up 33 fewer hits. … Despite giving up the most home runs in baseball for the majority of the season, Myers’ fly ball rates decreased from 35 percent in 2007 to 32.5 percent in 2008. His ground ball rates increased to 47.1 percent, his best total since 2004.
Red Flags: He can turn back around and be a horrible pitcher. Not much more to say. … His K/9 rate decreased below 8.00 for the first time since 2004. … At the same time, his walk rate increased above 3.00 for the first time since then.
Prognostication: Myers is the hardest cookie to crack, always. This time he can be very good, or he can be very poor. I will side with good, but not incredible. He is a solid No. 2-3 guy, and can record an ERA within the 3.00 range. His strikeouts won’t be as prominent, but maybe that’s a good sign — he might be turning into a ground-ball pitcher. Maybe.
2009 Projection: 214 IP / 16-10 / 3.74 ERA / 60 BB / 147 K / 2 CG / 1.32 WHIP
