2009 Projection: Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels, SP (LHP)
Age: 25

2008: 227.1 IP / 14-10 / 3.09 ERA / 53 BB / 196 K / 2 CG / 1.08 WHIP

Summary: Forget the wins and losses: 2008 was a breakthrough season for Hamels. His ERA fell close to below 3.00 while his BB/9 rate continued to fall close to below 2.00. Almost every start was a quality start, as he seemed to dominate most teams with his fastbal-changeup combination. The games he didn’t dominate were true ace performances — sticking through with marginal stuff while only giving up 2-3 runs. He carried that style to the postseason, ripping off a slew of solid starts that earned him two postseason MVP trophies.

Career Level: Ascent (Year 3)

Green Flags: The numbers continued to improve in 2008. That alone is a big green flag. … When balls were put in play, opponents were only hitting .270 — best of his major league career. … Hamels remained a ground-ball pitcher, throwing with a 1.02 GB/FB ratio. … Home run rates also dropped in 2008. … The curveball is slowly becoming an out pitch.

Red Flags: Hamels’ K/9 rates were down, and have decreased each season (down to 7.76). … Hamels threw more than 300 innings, combining the season with postseason and spring training 2008. … Hamels suffered some elbow pain during spring training 2009. … Hitters were striking line drives off Hamels at a higher rate than ever in 2008.

Prognostication: If Hamels remains healthy — a concern, for sure — he can duplicate his 2008 success and maybe improve upon it. Hitters are slowly starting to read him better, but if the curve becomes a prominent pitch, it’ll probably give Hamels another three seasons of baffling success. He’ll likely have another great season, but health and strikeout rates might caution us a bit.

2009 Projection: 203.2 IP / 15-6 / 3.31 ERA / 50 BB / 182 K / 3 CG / 1.10 WHIP

Tim Malcolm

Tim first found the Phillies as a little infant at Veteran’s Stadium, cheering on a Juan Samuel game-winning home run in his very first game. With the pinstripes in his blood, he witnessed Terry Mulholland’s 1990 no-hitter, “Steve Carlton Night” at the Vet, game three of the 1993 World Series, countless games during the charmed 2008 championship season and various road excursions. Since November 2007 Tim’s been writing about them daily at Phillies Nation, becoming one of the world’s most popular Phillies scribes. You can catch him on Twitter and Facebook, as well. When he’s not talking about the Phils he’s relaxing with a St. Bernardus ABT 12 or one of his many favored brews.