Can Dom Brown Win Home Run Crown?

When Domonic Brown was sidelined with a concussion after a diving catch attempt on July 23, a lot of the Phillies hopes went with down with him. The Fightins went 1-10 in the stretch without Brown, being outscored 67 to 24. Brown probably would not have been able to erase the 43 run differential all by himself but may have been able to help in the five one or two run games the Phillies lost in that run.

Amazingly, Brown lost almost no ground in the NL Home Run race during his injury. With his 27th homer last night, Brown sits just two homers behind the suddenly-smoking Paul Goldschmidt (8 HR in his last 19 games) and the Pirates’ consistent power threat Pedro Alvarez for the NL crown. In a season full of disappointments, Brown’s performance has not been one of them.

If Brown can make up the two homer deficit, he would be the first Phillie since Ryan Howard

in 2008 to win the National League home run title. Brown would join eight other Phillies who have won the NL Home Run crown if he could achieve the feat. Can Brown join the ranks of Mike Schmidt, Chuck Klein, and Jim Thome?

According to my projections, the winner would require about 40 homers to win it, meaning Brown would need to hit 13 in the final 42 games, or one every three games which is certainly a doable pace. Thoughts?