Categories: Analysis

Harper, Hoskins due for big power seasons according to ZiPS projections

Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins will be crucial pieces for the Phillies in 2020. (Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

With Spring Training just around the corner, many are beginning to wonder what 2020 will have in store for the Philadelphia Phillies. And while that cannot be truly answered until the start of the regular season, some new projections have recently come out to help show how the year may go for the Phillies.

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for the Phillies for this upcoming season have recently been released on FanGraphs. ZiPS is a popular projection system that is often used to determine what a player’s performance may look like. This year’s ZiPS projections were kind to several Phillies but, as Szymborksi noted in his article, the team could still be missing a few pieces.

ZiPS seems to expect relatively high power production from both Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. Harper is projected to hit 36 home runs with a .909 OPS. ZiPS has Hoskins projected at 34 home runs with an OPS of .853. A total of 34 home runs would tie Hoskins’ career high and his projected OPS would be the highest of any full season he has played in the majors.

Based on FanGraphs‘ depth charts playing time, ZiPS only estimates the projected center field pairing of Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn to accumulate 0.6 WAR. Although things could change if Scott Kingery moves back to the outfield with the promotion of third base prospect Alec Bohm, center field is projected to be the worst position for the Phillies. The potential lack of production from this position could be what ultimately pressures the Phillies into calling Bohm relatively early this summer.

Aaron Nola is projected to be the ace of the Phillies pitching staff once again. ZiPS has Nola down for a 3.57 ERA over 194 innings pitched. Zack Wheeler is projected for a 4.02 ERA across 177 innings in his first season in Philadelphia. After the top two pitchers in the rotation, ZiPS projects Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and Spencer Howard all to have ERAs in the mid-4.00s.

Closer Héctor Neris received good projections from ZiPS following an excellent 2019 campaign. He is projected to have an ERA of 3.48 while leading the team in strikeout percentage. ZiPS also projects Seranthony Domínguez to have an ERA of 3.40, but his ability to stay healthy will of course be a major key to the 2020 season.

ZiPS is an outstanding tool to use to help gauge where certain players stand in terms of potential performance. To find the full 2020 ZiPS projections for the Phillies, click here.