FanGraphs heard you were excited about Philadelphia Phillies pitchers and catchers having their first workout in Clearwater Wednesday and decided to rain on the parade a bit.
The analytically-driven baseball site released their projected playoff odds for each team Tuesday, and they don’t think especially highly of the Phillies.
FanGraphs currently projects the Phillies to win 79.2 games in 2021, and gives them just a 3.4% chance to win the crowded National League East. The Phillies odds to make the playoffs as one of the National League’s two Wild Card teams isn’t much higher at 9.2%. In total, FanGraphs‘ model gives the Phillies just a 12.6% chance to make the postseason in 2021.
If the Phillies were to miss the playoffs in 2021, it would mark the 10th consecutive season without a postseason berth. Only the Seattle Mariners, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, have a longer postseason drought in baseball than the Phillies.
It goes without saying, but missing the postseason in 2021 would put a damper on this entire era of Phillies baseball. It would mean that the club has wasted three peak years from Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, along with another year from Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins and Zack Wheeler.
The most disappointing part about this projection is that FanGraphs has the Phillies slated to post a losing record for the eighth time in 10 years. Under last season’s rules, the Phillies would be the eighth and final team in the postseason, but the plan is for both leagues to go back to five playoff teams in 2021. It’s one thing to go 86-76 and miss out on the second Wild Card spot by a few games. 79-83, or thereabouts, wouldn’t even have the Phillies within spitting distance of the postseason.
In FanGraphs‘ model, the Phillies finish in fourth place in the National League East, behind the New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. At 98.8 wins, the defending World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to win the most games in the sport.
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