PECOTA projects Phillies will win 83 games in 2021

In re-signing J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius this offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies hope that they can not only post their first winning record since 2011, but return to the playoffs as well.

The always polarizing PECOTA projections were released Tuesday, and they have the Phillies accomplishing just one of those two goals.

PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus‘ “proprietary system that projects player and team performance.” The system believes that the Phillies will go 83-79 in 2021, which would mark the club’s first winning campaign in a decade. However, as baseball returns to just five teams from each league reaching the postseason, the Phillies would be on the outside looking in for the playoffs, with six teams projected to win more games in the National League.

On one hand, PECOTA does believe that the Phillies will win more games than the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, two teams that not only reached the playoffs in 2020, but both won at least one playoff series.

That said, the New York Mets are projected by the model to win the National League East with either 95 or 96 wins. The Washington Nationals – who finished tied with the Mets for last place in the National League East in 2020 – are expected to go 85-77, also better than the Phillies.

The defending World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest projected win total at 102.9.

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