Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Phillies may have struck gold with José Alvarado, who is a major second-half key

Jose Alvarado had a strong finish to the first half of the season. (John Jones/Icon Sportswire)

The Philadelphia Phillies are hopeful that Bryce Harper and Jean Segura will return at some point in the second half. Ditto for Zach Eflin. It goes without saying that after signing Nick Castellanos to a five-year/$100 million deal, they need much more than the .673 OPS he posted prior to the All-Star Break.

But as the Phillies welcome the Chicago Cubs to Citizens Bank Park to begin the second half of the 2022 slate Friday, they are tied for the third Wild Card spot in the National League. A portion of their first-half rebound can be attributed to José Alvarado’s emergence as an elite late-inning reliever, and the 27-year-old will have quite a bit to say about whether the Phillies do indeed return to the postseason for the first time since 2011.

After being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, Alvarado posted a 4.20 ERA and 4.80 FIP in 64 games last season. He flashed his elite potential just enough to be brought back for a second season, but you had a feeling that if the Rays had given up on Alvarado, they didn’t believe he would ever have enough control to be a reliable relief pitcher.

And the beginning of the 2022 season was much of the same for Alvarado.

Over his first 17 appearances of the season, Alvarado was 0-1 with a 7.62 ERA, 4.03 FIP and a 0.0 fWAR. He had a 6.92 walks per nine innings, the eighth worst mark among all relievers.

Alvarado was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on May 27. While pitching for the IronPigs, the left-handed reliever got a chance to reset mentally. Reports from his four appearances at Triple-A were excellent, as were the results. Alvarado struck out five batters over four scoreless innings, while walking just one.

He was recalled on June 12, with Rob Thomson having replaced Joe Girardi as the team’s manager during his detour to Triple-A. His new manager inserted him into the lowest-leverage situation possible to get his feet wet again, as Alvarado entered the team’s June 12 game against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the seventh inning with the Phillies trailing 8-1. For all intents and purposes, the game was over.

And if it wasn’t over by the time Alvarado entered the game, it certainly was when he exited. Alvarado’s return to the majors produced pretty similar results to what he had early in 2022 — he walked two batters and gave up two runs. Two innings later, backup catcher Garrett Stubbs was pitching for the Phillies, who saw their nine-game losing streak snapped with an ugly 12-1 loss.

But then, a funny thing happened. Alvarado wasn’t shaken by a relatively disastrous first appearance back with the Phillies. Alvarado focused on improving his mental strength on the mound, as detailed in an excellent story by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. He’s used his cutter to get ahead of hitters and despite a rough second impression, Alvarado looked like one of the best relievers in baseball over the final month of the first half.

“I think it’s a couple things, he’s just more of himself. He’s comfortable … he’s pitching … he’s getting results … he’s using his cutter more, obviously. Really, he’s just pitching,” Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham said Friday afternoon. “He’s not worried as much about his delivery. He knows kind of who he is and what his fixes are. And he’s able to make adjustments quicker.”

Since June 16, Alvarado is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.74 FIP and a 0.6 fWAR in 15 appearances. The only relievers with a higher fWAR over that period are Andrés Muñoz and Edwin Díaz. His BB/9 is still 4.26, but his 24 strikeouts are third to the same two pitchers.

You can’t go long when talking to anyone about Alvarado’s recent dominance without them pointing you back to his increased cutter usage. The decision to use it more frequently was a collaborative one that’s been building dating back to last season. The Phillies showed Alvarado the data that backed up how successful he had been when using the pitch, and obviously the results have spoken for themselves since he began to lean on the pitch even more.

On one hand, Alvarado has a career 3.77 ERA, which leads you to wonder if he can sustain anything close to what he did over his final 15 appearances of the first half.

On the other hand, since Alvarado’s arrived, the feeling from pretty much anyone involved was that he could be an All-Star caliber reliever if he could consistently throw strikes. Now that the cutter has allowed Alvarado to throw strikes on a relatively consistent basis, why shouldn’t we believe that he’ll be able to continue pitching at a very high level?

“Well, I mean, for me, yes,” Cotham said when asked if Alvarado’s recent transformation is sustainable. “I think he’s just in a really good spot. The tricky thing when you’re going good is to not try to do more than that. So I think he’s in a really good spot. I have nothing but confidence that there is sustainability there.”