Categories: Analysis

The 2022 Phillies’ midterm report card

Rob Thomson gets an A- for his performance as Phillies interim manager. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

If, before this season, the average Philadelphia Phillies fan had been told their team would be 43-38 at the 81-game mark, it might not have been met with the maximum degree of enthusiasm, but it certainly wouldn’t have sounded like a disaster scenario either.

That’s where the Phillies find themselves at the season’s midway point. The way they got there was somewhat circuitous, once sitting eight games under .500 — which did feel like disaster — before flipping the switch as the calendar flipped to June.

The Phillies closed out the unofficial yet mathematically sound first half at 22-9, perhaps the most encouraging way to reach five games over .500 when it comes to playoff hopes. But for the purposes of evaluating the first half as a whole, let’s treat it like a monolith, where games in April count the same as those in July. (After all, they do.) This isn’t about forecasting, merely about grading.

Here’s the Phillies’ report card from the first 81 of 162 regular-season games in 2022.

OFFENSE: B+

Keep in mind — Bryce Harper was an everyday starter for the first 74 of those 81 games, and we’re not looking toward the future here (though I have my reasons to believe they just might be OK).

With Harper as the centerpiece of the lineup, Rhys Hoskins having an underrated year to the tune of an .837 OPS and Kyle Schwarber leading the National League with 25 home runs, the oft-frustrating Phillies offense has actually been quite good this year. Despite some maddening inconsistency, particularly in the first two months, the bunch ranks third in MLB in runs. Ball indeed go boom.

One name I didn’t mention in that little blurb is Nick Castellanos, and that will have to change for the Phillies’ offense to do its part in boosting the team GPA. His struggles (.687 OPS) plus J.T. Realmuto’s (.704) are weighing the group down, and Didi Gregorius’ zero homers aren’t helping a whole lot.

However, the big three in this lineup, along with the occasional big hit from other starters as well as contributions from platoon or bench guys like Garrett Stubbs and Matt Vierling, have been enough to make this offense one of the league’s best.

STARTING PITCHING: B

Zack Wheeler turning in another All-Star-worthy and perhaps top-five Cy Young season has been incredibly fun to watch, though given his last couple campaigns, it wasn’t exactly unexpected.

Aaron Nola firmly reentering the “ace” conversation, on the other hand, was.

It’s a good thing he has, because the bottom of the rotation hasn’t done enough. And the bottom of the rotation is the reason why this group, despite boasting two likely All-Stars, can’t earn much higher than a B.

Zach Eflin has been largely inconsistent even when he’s managed to stay on the mound, and his semi-regular midseason injury issues are flaring up again this year. Kyle Gibson has the occasional gem, but the rest of the sample has been underwhelming, even for a No. 5. Ranger Suárez is starting to find his groove a little, but uncharacteristically spotty command has sunk him.

Thankfully for the Phillies, Wheeler and Nola have shouldered the burden. They’ve done every bit what was asked of them (in Nola’s case, more), and they’re the main reasons the rotation’s 8.2 fWAR ranks second in all of baseball.

BULLPEN: C

It has its bright spots, to be sure. Seranthony Domínguez should be an All-Star. Andrew Bellatti has been a nice add. Brad Hand — specifically, Brad Hand without inherited runners — too, and Nick Nelson has had some moments.

Beyond them, there are signs of life from once-struggling and suddenly-dominant relievers like Corey Knebel and José Alvarado. But the fact that those relievers required “signs of life” in the first place is precisely the problem. Knebel hasn’t been the sure-thing-in-the-ninth-inning that the Phillies overpaid him to be; Alvarado struggled (with walks, of course) so much that he was demoted to Triple-A.

But that demotion seems to have made something click for Alvarado, who’s been lights out since rejoining the team. And a demotion of Knebel’s own, out of the closer’s role and into lower-leverage spots, is paying dividends as well. Still, those are just three-week samples in an 81-game season, and their respective struggles contributed in no small part to the Phillies’ early bullpen woes. Jeurys Familia’s did too, but he’s pretty much been relegated to irrelevance. Connor Brogdon has been good when he’s pitched, but he’s missed a lot of time.

This bullpen, though, once retired 34 consecutive hitters, which is a perfect game plus 2 1/3 innings worth of outs. It’s part of a recent hot stretch for the unit, which is why I decided to delete my initial “-” following the “C”.

DEFENSE: D-

It wasn’t expected to be pretty, and whaddya know? It hasn’t been pretty. Harper’s confinement to DH is partially responsible, as is Jean Segura’s long stint on the injured list. But mainly at fault is an offseason plan to throw defense completely by the wayside in favor of offense, offense and more offense. Go figure!

Hey, I’m not saying it was the wrong plan. But it was the plan. And the defense has held up its end.

Why is a group that ranks 29th in Major League Baseball with -26 defensive runs saved and 28th with -22 outs above average anything higher than an F? Because, improbable as it may sound, a couple-week period in mid-May is the only prolonged stretch where it’s felt like the defense has really lost the Phillies a bunch of games.

It might just be sheer luck that it hasn’t cost them more, and sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. But I’m mainly grading goodness here. And if I were to grade the Phillies’ defense as anything approaching “good” or even a passing grade, I’d deserve to get ratio’d into orbit.

MANAGING: D and A-, in that order

Must I explain?

For the first two months of the season, the Phillies looked like the Same Old Phillies. Bullpen mismanagement abounded, lifelessness proliferated and the uncanny ability to find every way imaginable to lose reigned supreme.

The Phillies were 22-29 when they fired Joe Girardi, and everything has changed since. Right out of the gate, Rob Thomson guided his team to eight straight wins, part of a 19-8 June. A team that once found every way to lose feels like a team that — gasp — knows how to win, pulling numerous near-impossible comeback victories from out of a hat.

The Phillies Day Care has injected energy into the clubhouse, something Thomson said after his managerial debut that he values about younger players. There have been a couple inexplicable moments here and there — c’mon, he’s spent his entire career under Girardi — but by and large, the Rob Thomson Era has been a smashing success to this point. Slice it any way you want — 22-29 is 22-29, and 21-9 is 21-9.

But, alas. Firing Joe Girardi won’t fix the Phillies’ problems.