Categories: Analysis

Should the Phillies have beaten the Yankees’ return for Frankie Montas?

Dave Dombrowski is the Phillies’ president of baseball operations. (Cheryl Pursell)

When the Cincinnati Reds traded Luis Castillo to Seattle for the Mariners’ Nos. 1, 2, 10 and 26 prospects (per Baseball America) on Friday, the price of top-tier starting pitching — and even mid-tier arms — on the trading block figured to be exorbitant thereafter.

That’s why it came as somewhat of a surprise when the New York Yankees’ return to the Oakland Athletics for Frankie Montas on Monday was … not.

Granted, Castillo is arguably a notch above Montas in terms of talent, the latter has been dealing with shoulder issues this season and both have the same amount of club control remaining (through 2023). But still — the Yankees only needing to send their Nos. 5, 9 and 20 prospects (plus one outside their Top 30) for one of the top starters on the market and Lou Trivino makes one wonder what it might have taken for the Philadelphia Phillies to edge out New York for Montas.

Now, prospect rankings in the Yankees’ system (No. 13 overall) are not equal to prospect rankings in the Phillies’ (No. 23). So to say that a package of Johan Rojas, Francisco Morales and Bailey Falter — the Phillies’ minor leaguers with those aforementioned organizational rankings — would have landed Montas is a misguided oversimplification.

But how much further would the Phillies have needed to go? The Montas deal’s headliner was southpaw Ken Waldichuk, MLB.com’s No. 70 overall prospect. The Phillies’ closest-ranked prospect to Waldichuk is Logan O’Hoppe, 16 spots below at No. 86 — but given that Oakland’s top two prospects are both catchers, it’s unlikely O’Hoppe would’ve enticed Oakland much as a headliner.

Instead, let’s go 17 spots the other direction, to Mick Abel at No. 53. Abel may have offered more appeal to the A’s than did Waldichuk, meaning if he was the headliner, the supplemental pieces around him might not have needed to match those the Yankees put forth.

Say the Phillies manage to slash Trivino from the trade (it’s been reported they aren’t in the reliever market anyway) and a package of Abel, Hans Crouse and Francisco Morales gets it done.

Is that rough estimate of a package something Dave Dombrowski and co. should’ve offered? Parting with Abel would’ve been tough, but that’s likely what it would’ve required, given Oakland’s apparent interest in pitching prospects and the reality that Crouse or Griff McGarry probably isn’t headlining a package to net Frankie Montas.

Maybe swapping Abel isn’t worth it in that scenario. Maybe Montas’ injury concerns were cause for hesitation by a Phillies team seeking reliable innings in the starting rotation, in light of Zach Eflin’s injury and minimal rotation depth. Or maybe that package wouldn’t have been enough for Oakland anyway.

The extent to which the Phillies were in on Montas is unclear, but previous reports suggested the club was interested in adding a potential Game 3 playoff starter while also unwilling to part with five of its top prospects, Abel included.

For someone like Frankie Montas — whose value is higher than that of your typical Game 3 starter — that caliber of prospect, and perhaps Abel specifically, almost certainly would’ve been required as part of the return. And though the Phillies may have had the pieces to get a deal done, it’s hard to say Dombrowski and co. are totally to blame for saying no.