Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

If the playoffs started today, here’s who the Phillies would play

Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto are key cogs on the Phillies. (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

After defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday evening, the Philadelphia Phillies enter the month of September with a 73-58 record, in control of the second Wild Card spot in the National League.

The Phillies are a half game up on the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card race, and 2 1/2 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers, the first team currently on the outside looking in.

Given that they are 10 games back in the NL East and 7 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves for the top Wild Card spot in the senior circuit, the Phillies are likely looking at either the second or third Wild Card as their path to the playoffs.

As it stands today, the Phillies would be the No. 5 seed in the NL, and they would play the Braves, the No. 4 seed. If things hold, the Phillies would play a best-of-three series, with all three games played at Truist Park in Atlanta. There would be no off days in the series, which would create an interesting dynamic for how managers utilize their bullpens. The Phillies are 6-6 against the Braves so far in 2022.

If the Padres end up winning the second Wild Card and the Phillies the third and final one, then then Philadelphia would be the No. 6 seed and play a best-of-three series in St. Louis. The Phillies won four of seven games they played against the Cardinals this season. A postseason matchup with St. Louis would set the Phillies up with a chance to end the Hall of Fame careers of Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina, both of whom have said they will retire at the conclusion of the 2022 season.

In theory, you would probably prefer to play the Cardinals in a best-of-three series, as opposed to the Braves. But the Phillies famously (or perhaps infamously) swept the Braves in the final series of the 2011 season, knocking them out of what was the lone Wild Card spot at that time and allowing the Cardinals in. The Cardinals, of course, would go on to pull off an NLDS upset of the Phillies, who won a franchise record 102 games in 2011.

So sometimes, it’s a case of being careful of what you wish for. The most important priority for the Phillies has to be just getting back to the postseason, where they haven’t been since the aforementioned 2011 season.

The Seattle Mariners have the longest postseason drought in baseball, given that they haven’t played in the playoffs since 2001. But they are 72-58, and if they snap their postseason drought, the Phillies have the next longest in the sport.

Another scenario that exists is that the Braves usurp the New York Mets and win the NL East. Atlanta will enter the final month of the season three games back of the Mets, so it’s certainly possible.

If the Braves win the NL East, they will likely join the Los Angeles Dodgers as one of the two teams in the NL playoffs with a first-round bye. The Mets would then become the top Wild Card seed. If the Phillies remain in control of the second Wild Card spot, they would then face the Mets in a best-of-three playoff series at Citi Field. The Phillies finished the regular season series against the Mets with an unsightly 5-14 record.

Of course, none of this will matter if the Phillies turn in a disastrous month of September (and early October), as they have in recent seasons. But as of now, the Phillies are on track to play in the playoffs, and it’s interesting to look ahead at who they could ultimately face off against.