Phillies Nuggets: Magic number, postseason odds & more

Entering play on Wednesday, Sept. 28, here’s where the Philadelphia Phillies stand in their quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 2011.

Where Are The Phillies In The Standings?

Increasingly, it appears that the Phillies will be the third Wild Card team or miss the postseason. The San Diego Padres (86-68) now have a 2 1/2 game cushion over the Phillies (83-70) for the second Wild Card in the National League after an extra-inning win over the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday. The Phillies are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the third and final Wild Card spot. The Phillies also own the tiebreaker over the Brewers because they went 4-2 in the season series. Essentially then, the Phillies have a 2 1/2 game lead over the Brewers.

What Is The Phillies Magic Number?

Even though the Phillies lost to the Chicago Cubs Tuesday, the Brewers also lost to the St. Louis Cardinals, so the Phillies’ magic number to make the playoffs as the No. 6 seed is down to seven.

What Are The Odds That The Phillies Make The Playoffs?

FanGraphs‘ model gives the Phillies an 84.7% chance to reach the postseason. Meanwhile, Baseball Reference has the Phillies at 76.6% to play in the playoffs.

What’s On The Slate Today?

• Aaron Nola will get the ball for the Phillies, as they continue their series against the Cubs at 7:40 p.m. ET. Nola has a 2.08 ERA in 21 2/3 innings so far in September. He’ll be opposed by righty Hayden Wesneski, who has a 2.45 ERA in four games, two of which have been starts.

• Milwaukee will give the ball to one of their aces, as Brandon Woodruff will toe the rubber in a 7:40 p.m. ET game at American Family Field. Veteran lefty José Quintana will start for the Cardinals.

• Joe Musgrove is slated to start for the Padres in an excellent pitching matchup at Petco Park, as the Dodgers will counter with Julio Urías. That game won’t get underway until 9:40 p.m. ET.

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