The Phillies have to play better when Wheeler, Nola pitch

The Phillies have two of the best starters in the National League in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Injuries have limited Wheeler to 142 innings this season, but he’s 11-7 with a 2.98 ERA. He touched 99 mph in his first start back from right forearm tendinitis. Nola is the workhorse who has bounced back from a down year. He ranks third in the National League in innings pitched and has a 3.28 ERA through 30 starts.

They are scheduled to pitch Tuesday and Wednesday in Chicago. Ranger Suárez will pitch the series finale on Thursday.

With Wheeler and Nola lined up to possibly pitch games one and two of a wild card series, the Phillies should be seen as a dangerous opponent in a best-of-three playoff series, right?

The answer to that question is sort of. Since 2020, the Phillies are 72-69 when one of Wheeler or Nola take the mound. They are 121-112 with all other starting pitchers. With Wheeler, that record is 38-29. With Nola, it’s 34-40.

Wheeler (11) and Nola (9) rank No. 2 and 3 respectively in baseball since 2020 in starts of at least seven innings or more in a team loss. Of those 69 losses with one of them on the mound since 2020, 20 of those have come when they have thrown at least seven innings. For Nola, eight of his nine team losses after throwing seven innings have come this season. He has a 3.02 ERA in those games.

Playoff baseball is just different. Gone are the days of elite starters going at it with the bullpen taken completely out of the equation. We may never see anything like the Roy Halladay vs. Chris Carpenter pitcher’s duel in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS, which is ironically the last postseason game the Phillies have ever played in.

Justin Verlander was the last pitcher to throw a complete game in the postseason. That happened in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS. Only three starting pitchers threw at least seven innings in an outing during the postseason last season.

Maybe the Phillies are the team that reverses the trend, if they make the playoffs. Most of the time, Nola and Wheeler tend to be the better option than whoever is in the bullpen in tight spots later in the game. Rob Thomson is more likely to bring in Andrew Bellatti with a runner on second and two outs in the fifth inning with Bailey Falter on the mound as opposed to Wheeler or Nola.

There have been plenty of instances over the last three years where Wheeler and Nola were lined up to pitch in the same series. That will be the case for round one if the Phillies are in the postseason.

Since 2020, the Phillies are 12-15-6 in series in which both pitchers start. The Phillies’ series record in 2022 with Wheeler and Nola on the bump is 2-4-2.

The Phillies have won both Wheeler and Nola starts in a series 10 times since 2020. They have also lost both Wheeler and Nola starts in a series 10 times. Here’s the breakdown from this season:

• April 11-13 vs. New York Mets — Wheeler (L), Nola (L): Phillies lose 2 of 3
• April 22-24 vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Wheeler (L), Nola (L): Phillies swept in 3
• May 12-15 at. Los Angeles Dodgers — Wheeler (W), Nola (L): Phillies win 3 of 4
• May 23-26 at. Atlanta Braves — Wheeler (W), Nola (W): Phillies split
• June 28-30 vs. Atlanta Braves — Wheeler (L), Nola (W): Phillies lose 2 of 3
• July 8-11 at. St. Louis Cardinals — Wheeler (W), Nola (L): Phillies split
• July 28-31 at. Pittsburgh Pirates — Wheeler (W), Nola (W): Phillies sweep in 4
• Aug. 12-14 at. New York Mets — Wheeler (L), Nola (L): Phillies swept in 3

Sometimes, the plan works to perfection. Last season, the Phillies went into Citi Field in September needing a series victory against a disappointing Mets team. The Phillies won 4-3 and 5-3 in Wheeler and Nola’s outings. Both starters did not pitch past the sixth inning, but the bullpen was able to hang on.

Sometimes, Wheeler and Nola are just not enough. Needing at least a series win to stay alive in the division race, the Phillies sent Wheeler and Nola to the mound for the first two games of a do or die series against the Atlanta Braves during the final week of the 2021 regular season. In game one, Wheeler went seven innings and allowed only two runs in a loss. In game two, Nola went six and allowed three runs in a 7-2 defeat that essentially ended their season. They were outdueled by opposing starters Charlie Morton and Max Fried and the Bryce Harper or nothing offense couldn’t get anything going.

The Phillies have Wheeler, Nola and Suárez lined up to pitch in Chicago. They should feel at least slightly better about their chances because of that. Maybe Suárez, who has the second-lowest ERA in the majors since the start of 2021, is an X-factor. Wheeler and Nola are widely considered the team’s No. 1 and 2, but Suárez can also perform like an ace when he’s hot.

But if the Phillies take care of business and secure a playoff berth, there will be a lot of talk surrounding their chances in a three game series with Wheeler and Nola on the mound. Recent history tell us that the Phillies are an average team when their best starters are pitching.

That’s not great, but maybe that should tell us that the Phillies’ October fate has less to do with great starting pitching and more about whether or not the supporting cast shows up with them.

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