Categories: Analysis

Near-perfect outing was icing on the cake to excellent regular season for Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola was excellent Monday. (John Adams/Icon Sportswire)

On Monday night, Aaron Nola was perfect through the first 20 batters he faced in Houston. Everything was working for him; his fastballs went exactly where he wanted them to go, his curveball was unhittable, opposing batters looked at strikes and swung and missed at balls outside.

Simply put, it was Nola’s best start of the year, especially considering the context.

Everybody watching knew what this game meant for the Phillies, who were looking to clinch their first playoff berth in over a decade. Win it and they were in — and Nola’s outing went a long way in winning it for the Phillies.

Nola’s playoff-clinching start merely bookended one of the best seasons he’s ever had. For all the debate that seems to swirl about his every start, he’s been one of the league’s best pitchers in the sport in 2022. Nola has the highest fWAR (6.3) among all pitchers, he’s thrown the second most innings (205) and pitched fewer than five innings only three times (one of which, against the Nationals on Sept. 11, was a rain-shortened start).

On most days, a Nola start meant a break for the Phillies bullpen. In essence, Nola took the baton from Zack Wheeler — who threw a Major League-high 213 1/3 innings in 2021 — as the team workhorse this season. Wheeler was on the IL for nearly a month between August and September, and the Phillies managed to stay afloat in his absence.

Aside from the workhorse aspect of Nola’s 2022 season, he was just … excellent.

Nola had the second lowest BB/9 (1.27) among all starters, which led to his Major League-leading 8.10 K/BB ratio, topping the next highest starter by a significant margin (Kevin Gausman, 7.32). Aside from limiting free passes, Nola was good at keeping the ball in the ballpark, as he was top 10 in HR/9 (0.83) among National League starters. It is perhaps no surprise that, according to FanGraphs, Nola has the most valuable fastball and the third most valuable curveball in the senior circuit.

What’s perhaps most encouraging about Nola’s 2022 campaign is that he’s finally overcome the “September Nola” narrative. In six starts across September/October, Nola threw 34 1/3 innings with a 2.36 ERA — his lowest ERA by month in 2022. The 6 2/3 scoreless innings on Oct. 3 certainly helped, but his five starts in September alone had an ERA of 2.93. Opponents put up a .509 OPS with only two homers in September and October against Nola, while striking out 45 times.

Is Nola going to win the NL Cy Young Award? No, it would be shocking if Sandy Alcántara doesn’t take home the honor. But Nola should be in strong consideration for the top five. And after they exercise his $16 million club option for 2023, perhaps another long-term deal with Nola will be in order.