Phillies Nation National League Wild Card Series predictions

Phillies Nation writers submit their predictions ahead of Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals.

Nathan Ackerman — Staff Writer

Nolan Arenado, likely NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and this version of Albert Pujols compose a three-headed monster that gives the Cardinals the lineup advantage — even if you think (which I do) that the Phillies’ runs a little deeper. Keeping those three in the ballpark will surely be a challenge — and an imperative — for the Phillies.

But whatever advantage the Cardinals have in the lineup (and on defense), the Phillies override on the pitching side. With all due respect to José Quintana and Miles Mikolas, but either of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola would be starting Game 1 if they were Redbirds. And, if it gets to a Ranger Suárez Game 3, there are workarounds (opener, anyone?) that can manage the situation enough to best Adam Wainwright and his 7.22 September ERA.

Recent struggles by Seranthony Domínguez and David Robertson don’t instill tons of confidence against that aforementioned three-headed monster in the late innings, but José Alvarado has been pitching so well the last few months that you trust him against anyone — righty, lefty, whatever. (Zach Eflin isn’t too shabby, either.) Contrarily, a thin group of lefties in the Cardinals’ pen is good news for Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. The Alvarado argument might apply to Ryan Helsley as well, but given the starting pitching edge, the Phillies might need less from their bullpen than the Cardinals.

Experience matters, no doubt. The Cardinals win that department. But give me the Phillies’ pitching staff over a formidable Cardinals offense that’s scored three or fewer runs in 10 of its last 16 games. Oh — and the 2011 revenge is served quickly.

• Phillies in 2
• Impact Phillies player of the series: José Alvarado 

Aaron Clark — Staff Writer

The Cardinals, led by Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina, ended the Phillies’ 2011 season and the greatest stretch in franchise history. This time around, it’s the Phillies who are looking to repay the favor and end the trio’s swan song. They roll into St. Louis with minimal expectations outside of Philadelphia, but they match up well with the Cardinals in this best-of-three series. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a formidable 1-2 punch, and Zach Eflin has proven to be a weapon out of the bullpen. While the offense has been inconsistent this season, the lineup is deep, with five starters who have hit at least 25 home runs in a season. On paper, this series sets up to be low scoring, so having a lineup with multiple threats to hit the ball out of the park could prove decisive.

Wheeler’s performance in Game One will set the tone for the series, with the Phillies having never won a postseason series after losing the first game. In fourteen shutout innings against the Cardinals this season, he allowed nine hits, only walked two batters, and struck out ten. He’ll have to quiet Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, but in twelve at-bats against Wheeler this season, the Cardinals’ dynamic duo didn’t have an extra-base hit. If Wheeler can replicate his previous outings against St. Louis, the Phillies will be primed to advance to the NLDS to face the rival Atlanta Braves.

• Phillies in 2
• Impact Phillies player of the series: Zack Wheeler

Destiny Lugardo — Deputy Editorial Director

I’ve mentioned this a couple times over the last week, but I still can’t get over the fact that the Phillies got swept by the Cubs last week with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez all pitching in the series. Baseball is noisy, especially in a three-game sample size. Rob Thomson even told reporters in Houston that every game one of a series is a crapshoot to him. You don’t really know how the guys are going to react the first time they’re in a playoff environment as a team.

If this is indeed a crapshoot, the Cardinals have the advantage. It will be tough for the Phillies to take the first two, regardless of how well Wheeler and Nola pitch. If there’s a game three, St. Louis has the better pitching options. I’ll take Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery plus a superior bullpen over Ranger Suárez and Bailey Falter. Giving the ball to anyone whose name is not José Alvarado or Zach Eflin late in games is a risky proposition at this point.

• Cardinals in 3
• Impact Phillies player of the series: J.T. Realmuto

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