Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Through 4 years, who has been better — Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Bryce Harper (left) and Manny Machado (right) will forever be linked. (Rich von Biberstein, Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire)

For as long as they both play, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will be compared.

Said comparisons are likely to reach a fever pitch this week, as the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres meet in the NLCS.

Harper was selected No. 1 overall in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, two picks before the Baltimore Orioles took Machado. Both became free agents after the 2018 season, ultimately joining new teams. And one day, both will likely be in the Hall of Fame, perhaps even in the same class.

So before Harper and Machado meet with a trip to the World Series on the line, let’s take a look at how the two have compared since both being pursued by the Phillies ahead of the 2019 campaign:

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Offense

Since the start of the 2019 season, Harper has slashed .282/.394/.546 with 101 home runs, 296 RBIs, 294 walks and a .940 OPS.

Over the same period, Machado has a .280/.352/.504 with 108 home runs, 340 RBIs, 217 walks and an .856 OPS.

It should be noted that Machado has played in 519 games since joining the Padres, while Harper has played in 455. Harper was limited to 99 games in 2022, in large part because he suffered a fractured thumb when hit by a pitch in a game against, ironically, the Padres in late June.

There’s something to be said for availability, but the thumb fracture was an occupational hazard that could have just as easily have happened to Machado. So while Machado has better counting numbers in terms of home runs and RBIs, we’d still lean Harper over Machado offensively.

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Fielding

When the story of Harper’s career is told, it will be hard to pinpoint exactly how effective of a defender he was.

In 2018, his final season with the Nationals, he had an unsightly -13 defensive runs saved and -7 outs above average. But after securing his long-term contract, Harper was a Gold Glove finalist, posting 11 defensive runs saved and matching his career-high with 13 outfield assists in his first season in red pinstripes.

Truthfully, how you evaluate Harper defensively depends on what year it is. This year has been a wash in the field, because Harper has dealt with a torn in his UCL that hasn’t affected him at the plate, but has prevented him from playing in right field since April 16. It remains unclear if Harper will need offseason surgery to be able to return to the outfield.

Meanwhile, Machado was an all-time fielder when he first entered the league with the Baltimore Orioles. A natural shortstop that played at third base because J.J. Hardy was already entrenched at short, Machado had 65 defensive runs saved between 2013 and 2016. That was the same amount that Nolan Arenado — arguably the greatest defensive third baseman ever — had during the period. The only players with more defensive runs saved in that four-season stretch were Andrelton Simmons (99) and Jason Heyward (72).

Defensive runs saved is no longer as keen on Machado, who had -3 across 1,143 innings in the category in 2022. With that said, Machado is only a year removed from posting six defensive runs saved. And outs above average — which some believe is a more accurate defensive metric — still graded Machado at eight OAA this season.

There are different advanced statistics that suggest Machado’s range has declined, which is natural as you age. But while we take the metrics into account, it should still be recognized that even the advanced defensive stats that feel the most accurate right now are still being refined.

Certainly, Machado isn’t the same guy that won the 2013 Platinum Glove in the American League. But he’s still an above average defender at one of the most important positions on the field, so he gets the edge in this category.

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Team Success

Both the Phillies and Padres rebounded from disappointing 2021 seasons to make the playoffs in 2022 as Wild Card representatives.

The Phillies — despite starting 22-29 — roared back to go 87-75, securing the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

The Padres overcame having to play the entire season without Fernando Tatis Jr. to go 89-73 and win the second Wild Card in the senior circuit.

Philadelphia swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLWCS, before winning three of four against the defending World Series Champion Atlanta Braves in the NLDS.

San Diego took two of three games in Queens to eliminate the New York Mets in the NLWCS. Like the Phillies, they upset a division-rival in the NLDS, knocking the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers out in four games.

In terms of how the 2022 season has transpired, the Phillies and Padres are pretty close to equal.

Since each signed their contracts prior to the 2019 season, the Padres are 275-271 (.504). The Phillies are 278-268 (.509). But while the Phillies have a better win percentage, this is their first playoff trip with Harper. The Padres are back in the playoffs for the second time in three years, as they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card Round in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, before getting swept by the eventual World Series Champion Dodgers in the NLDS.

Harper struggled in the final month plus of the regular season, but is off to a scalding-hot start to the postseason, as he is 10 for 23 (.435) with three home runs and six RBIs in his first postseason action since 2017.

In 13 postseason games with the Padres, Machado is 12 for 53 (.226) with four home runs and seven RBIs.

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What Deal Looks Better?

This really depends on your perspective.

One of the things that made both players so intriguing as free-agent targets is that they both hit the market ahead of their age-26 season, so you could reasonably predict that a 10-year deal might age pretty well.

The Padres signed Machado to a 10-year/$300 million deal — one that then-general manager Matt Klentak said was too rich for the Phillies’ blood. The contract features a six-team no-trade clause, and runs through Machado’s age-35 season.

Machado can opt out after the 2023 season, so it’s possible that A.J. Preller and the Padres will be forced to either give Machado a deal that ties him to San Diego into his early-40s or let him walk. If he leaves, that might not be the worst thing. You will have gotten five years of a Hall of Fame-caliber player, and none of the lean years as he ages. It will also open up some money to sign Juan Soto, who can become a free agent after the 2024 season.

Harper, on the other hand, signed a 13-year/$330 million deal with no opt outs and a full no-trade clause.

While the potential of an opt out will follow Machado and the Padres all year in 2023, Harper may very well finish his career with the Phillies. He broke into the league at age-19, and is signed through the 2031 season, which will be his age-38 campaign. He wanted to be anchored to one team, in one city as he and his wife, Kayla, started a family. Harper has welcomed two children since becoming a Phillie, and he never wavered in wanting to be in Philadelphia during some lean times.

Will the Phillies experience some lean years at the end of Harper’s contract? Probably. But between 2020 and 2028, Harper will make $26 million annually. That will be reduced to $22 million from 2029 to 2031, the final three seasons of his deal. That’s not an amount — especially as salaries inevitably rise across the sport — that will cripple any team, especially one as deep-pocketed as the Phillies.

By the time Harper is wrapping up his contract, for better or for worse, Machado could be in the waning years of an entirely new deal, potentially with a different employer.