Why David Robertson, Seranthony Domínguez are the biggest X-factors in the series
ST. LOUIS — Thursday marks 12 years since Roy Halladay’s no-hitter in his first career playoff. Friday, the day the Phillies’ 11-year postseason drought officially ends, is the anniversary of the franchise’s last playoff game, a showdown between Halladay and his best friend Chris Carpenter for a chance to advance to the NLCS.
Phillies fans will quickly learn that postseason baseball has changed dramatically since the last time the Phillies were in the tournament. Gone are the days where aces can single-handily win a game for his team. Top tier bullpen depth is a necessity to survive in October.
Consider this. From 2007 to 2011, Phillies starters threw at least seven innings in a game in the postseason 18 times. Over the last two seasons, the total number of starts of seven innings or more league wide in the postseason is 12.
The Phillies have two of the best starters in baseball in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola pitching in Game 1 and 2. Ranger Suárez, when he’s right, is an excellent option in an elimination game.
Prior history has shown that having an ace on the mound doesn’t always correlate to team success for the Phillies. Heck, the Phillies got swept in Chicago a week ago with Wheeler, Nola and Suárez all lined up to pitch.
Starting pitching doesn’t matter if nobody else shows up. The offensive struggles are another discussion, but there’s some concern regarding the Phillies bullpen heading into the series.
It’s concerning that the Phillies have only two sure things in the bullpen in José Alvarado and Zach Eflin. Alvarado has not allowed an earned run since August 23. Hitters have an .085 expected batting average against his cutter, which he throws 43% of the time. He’s been one the most dominate relievers in baseball since being recalled from Triple A in June.
Eflin has settled in nicely in a back end relief role after missing a big chunk of the season with knee issues. His fastball velocity maxed out at 94 in his last outing against Houston. He’s allowed one earned run in seven outings. It just looks like he belongs in late games when it matters most.
Eflin and Alvarado can’t cover every high leverage outing for the Phillies in the postseason. It’s imperative that top arms Seranthony Domínguez and David Robertson turn a corner and find their command quickly.
“I think the emergence of Alvarado is really good,” Rob Thomson said Thursday. “The emergence of Eflin getting healthy and not having the time to build back up into a starter and just knowing that he’s a calm person. The heartbeat never changes. Being able to trust him late in games really helps. … There’s a couple of guys that have been struggling lately. That comes and goes and I’m expecting them to get right and then we’ve got a whole bunch of options.”
The struggling pair are walking hitters at an alarming rate. Domínguez has walked 10.29 batters per nine innings since coming off the injured list in the beginning of September. Robertson has walked the lead off hitter in three of his last five outings and has walked 16 over 23 1/3 innings since coming over from Chicago in a trade.
The two combined to give up 14 earned runs in September/October. It’s not a formula for success.
“He’s not giving up a ton of hits or a ton of damage,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said about Robertson. “He just gets himself in trouble by falling behind the count, giving guys free bases. When it’s late in the ballgame and it’s a close game, those walks are really important and every base runner matters.
“His stuff is great. It’s just a matter of getting ahead of guys, getting him to throw his fastball, cutter, curveball, slider. Being able to throw them for strikes is the most important thing.”
Both Robertson and Domínguez are tremendous relievers when everything is right. Robertson began the season with Chicago on a 10-game scoreless appearance streak. Domínguez was a godsend for Philadelphia before his injury. He posted a 1.85 ERA in the first half.
The ’08 Phillies won it all behind a stellar bullpen. Brad Lidge and his perfect season anchored the unit, but that would not have been possible without “The Bridge to Lidge,” guys like Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and others who got big outs prior to the ninth inning.
The Phillies do not have a set closer. Thomson has always preferred playing matchups. There’s only a bridge to the end of the game and right now, the foundation is shaky with only two bonafide back end relievers.
That could absolutely change if Robertson or Domínguez recapture the magic they once had this season. Maybe it’s the difference between an NLDS matchup with the Atlanta Braves next Tuesday or an early exit.
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