Categories: Analysis

Analyzing the 4 big-ticket shortstops available in free agency

Xander Bogaerts is one of four big-ticket free agent shortstops this offseason. (Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)

The defining characteristic of the 2022-23 free agent class is its depth at shortstop, and it’s no secret that the Phillies have their eyes set on that market — perhaps as the front office’s top priority.

It’s also no secret that the fanbase has a big-ticket shortstop at the top of its collective wish list this holiday season. The hundred[s]-million dollar question: Which one?

Of course, there are different ways to approach the debate. Should the Phillies prioritize offense? Defense? Age? Price? Each of those could very well yield a different favorite.

Let’s break it all down.

Age

On its face, age is the easiest category to assess — and it favors Carlos Correa, who doesn’t turn 29 until September. Dansby Swanson will turn 29 in February, Trea Turner will hit his 30s in June and Xander Bogaerts is the veteran of the group, set to turn 31 at the start of October.

But the age factor is a little more complicated, as the four shortstops obviously won’t all receive the same duration contract this offseason (even before factoring in potential opt-out clauses). Correa, the youngest of the bunch, is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive a nine-year deal, Turner an eight-year contract, and Bogaerts and Swanson seven apiece. If those figures are correct, that would leave Correa, Turner and Bogaerts signed through their age-36 seasons, and Swanson through his age-35 year.

Of course, those durations (and the corresponding prices we’ll discuss later) are merely educated predictions. The point: Teams might get an extra year or two of Correa’s prime as compared to the other three, but the back ends of the deals will likely look similar, and none has an injury history worthy of too much concern.

By and large, the age variable is a wash.

Defense

Per defensive runs saved (my preferred defensive metric), Swanson is coming off the best season out of the bunch, posting 9 DRS in 2022. Correa, though, has accumulated 70 DRS in his eight-year career, never posting a negative number in that department and finishing with a whopping 20 in 2021.

Meanwhile, Turner has been a slightly above league average defender at shortstop his whole career, while Bogaerts is the weakest of the bunch — totaling -51 DRS and -34 outs above average across his 10 seasons. Of the four, Turner and Bogaerts are the least likely to stick at shortstop throughout the duration of their contract.

That uncertainty (which Correa and Swanson don’t carry), plus the overall metrics across a several-year sample size for each, makes the defensive hierarchy quite clear-cut.

Ranking: Correa, Swanson, Turner, Bogaerts

Offense

Let’s use process of elimination here: Whoever the best hitter of the bunch is, it’s not Swanson. Zero full seasons (not counting 2020) with an OPS above .800 will do that to you.

As for the other three, the pecking order is harder to distinguish. At his peak (33 homers in 2019), Bogaerts possesses the most power, but 15 big flies across 150 games in 2022 isn’t exactly an encouraging figure. Correa, meanwhile, swatted 22 in 14 fewer games at a much more pitcher-friendly Target Field in Minnesota, and he’s found himself in the 20s in six of his seven full-length big league seasons.

If you remain a batting average holdout, Turner is your guy. He’s hit .311 across the last four seasons, including an MLB-best .328 in 2021 and an even-better .335 in the shortened 2020. He’s also posted an OPS above .900 in two of the last three seasons; Correa and Bogaerts have combined for zero such instances in that span.

Turner also strikes out the least among the bunch and is one of the fastest players in baseball. There are questions as to how that latter skillset will age, but for now — and despite a relatively modest 2022 — we’ll give Turner the nod.

Ranking: Turner, Correa, Bogaerts, drop-off, Swanson

Price

If the Phillies cheap out at shortstop, Edmundo Sosa (or an equally disappointing alternative) will find himself starting on Opening Day. Bottom line: None of the big four will come without a large, well, bottom line.

Let’s use MLB Trade Rumors’ predictions as a measuring stick here. The site has Turner leading the bunch with a $33.5 million average annual value, Correa at $32 million, Bogaerts at $29 million and Swanson at $22 million. Again, these figures likely won’t be exact (kudos to MLBTR if they are), but it does seem likely that Turner and Correa’s sticker prices will headline the group, with Swanson lagging behind.

Finally, there’s the intangibles: Correa has the most postseason experience, Bryce Harper loves Turner, Bogaerts has the Dave Dombrowski connection and Swanson seems to have earned a reputation as a “winner” from his time with the Atlanta Braves. It’s unclear how much those factors ultimately matter, but they’re worth mentioning nonetheless.

Each of the four would undoubtedly make the Phillies better and address one of their biggest holes. As for the overall ranking, we’ll leave that up for interpretation — but let this be your guide as you craft your wishlist this Christmas season.