Categories: Analysis

How big is the Phillies payroll in 2023?

J.T. Realmuto has three years remaining on his contract. (Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

The Philadelphia Phillies’ World Series run ended just over a month ago, and with free agency underway, Dave Dombrowski and the front office have already made a big splash.

Following a 2022 offseason that saw the Phillies enter the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history, the club is on track to go over again with an 11-year, $300 million agreement with Trea Turner plus reported deals for Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm.

While there are some question marks about what the Phillies roster will look like on Opening Day, much of the team is already put together. Here is a summary of all of the Phillies poised to play in 2023 and the details of their contracts.

GUARANTEED CONTRACTS

Each player’s 2023 salary will be shown with the luxury tax salary in parentheses afterward. The luxury tax salary is what actually matters if the team approaches the competitive balance tax, which is set at $233 million in 2023. The year in which the player is set to enter free agency is in italics. This is the season for which the player will be set to sign elsewhere.

Bryce Harper – $27,538,462 ($25,384,615)

The Phillies signed Harper prior to the 2019 season, and he has been one of the best players in baseball in four years with the team. The biggest question mark with Harper is whether he will need surgery on his UCL, which limited to a DH-only role for a majority of the 2022 season. FA in 2032.

Trea Turner – $27,272,727 ($27,272,727)

The Phillies first big splash of the offseason came earlier this week when they signed Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract. The 29-year-old figures to factor in at the top of the lineup and gives the Phillies even more star power entering the 2023 season.

Zack Wheeler – $24,500,000 ($23,600,000)

Wheeler has proven to be Matt Klentak’s greatest free-agent decision, as the 32-year-old has been better-than-advertised in three seasons since signing with the team. In 69 games with the Phillies, Wheeler has a 2.80 ERA. FA in 2025.

J.T. Realmuto – $23,875,000 ($23,100,000)

The Phillies re-signed Realmuto to a five-year contract prior to the 2021 season. 2022 was arguably his best season with the Phillies, as he finished the year with a 6.5 fWAR, the 10^th best mark among all position players. FA in 2026

Nick Castellanos – $20,000,000 ($20,000,000)

It was Castellanos who the Phillies entered the luxury tax for in the first time in franchise history. His first season in red pinstripes was underwhelming, as the 30-year-old finished with a .694 OPS, the worst mark of his career. FA in 2027

Kyle Schwarber – $20,000,000 ($19,750,000)

Schwarber excelled in his first year as a Phillie, leading the National League with 46 home runs and providing the offense a spark during its World Series run. FA in 2026

Taijuan Walker – $18,000,000 ($18,000,000)

The Phillies signed Walker to slot into the fourth spot in the rotation. The former Met has pitched to a 3.98 ERA in 59 games over the last two seasons, and was brought in to eat productive innings for the next four years in Philadelphia. FA in 2027

Aaron Nola – $16,00,000 ($16,000,000)

Following an up-and-down 2021, Nola led all pitchers in fWAR in 2022 and once again proved himself as one of the better pitchers in all of baseball. Nola is a candidate for an extension ahead of his free-agent walk year. FA in 2024

Matt Strahm – $7,500,000 ($7,500,000)

Strahm was the first reliever added to the Phillies this offseason, and the bullpen is likely where they will continue to add before the season starts. The left-handed pitcher pitched to a 3.83 ERA across 50 appearances in 2022 for the Red Sox. FA in 2025

Scott Kingery – $8,250,000 ($4,000,000)

While he is no longer on the 40-man roster, Kingery is still with the organization and is owed the final year of the six-year, $24 million contract he signed before ever playing in a major league game. FA in 2024

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PLAYERS ENTERING ARBITRATION

A player first reaches arbitration when they accrue three years of service time as a major leaguer, and is then arbitration-eligible for three years before becoming a free agent.

A player can also become arbitration-eligible if they accrue more than two and less than three years of service time and are in the top 22% in service time of players that fit that description.

The Phillies, aside from a relatively small agreement with Sam Coonrod, have yet to settle with any arbitration-eligible players. The following figures are projections from MLB Trade Rumors.

Rhys Hoskins – $12,600,000

Hoskins had several big moments in the 2022 postseason that were somewhat overshadowed by his poor play at first base. He is entering his final year of arbitration with the Phillies, and will enter a contract season coming off his lowest regular season OPS in his major league career. FA in 2024.

Seranthony Dominguez – $2,000,000

The Phillies settled with Dominguez to avoid arbitration in 2020, a decision that showed they believe in his long-term potential even though he was unable to make an impact in 2021 while he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander responded with an electric 2022 in which he was the team’s best reliever, and a dynamic weapon in the postseason. FA in 2025.

Jose Alvarado – $3,200,000

The Phillies acquired Alvarado from the Tampa Bay Rays in Dave Dombrowski’s first move as president of baseball operations. After an up-and-down 2021, Alvardo struggled out of the gate but transformed into one of the most reliable relievers on the pitching staff. He is a candidate for an extension this offseason. FA in 2024.

Ranger Suarez –$3,500,000

After a coming out party in 2021, Suarez had a solid 2022 season in which he pitched to a 3.65 ERA over a career-high 155 1/3 innings. Suarez also excelled in the postseason as both a starter and reliever, cementing himself as both a reliable contributor and sudden fan favorite.

Edmundo Sosa –$1,000,000

The Phillies acquired Sosa in exchange for left-handed reliever JoJo Romero in late July. Sosa was excellent offensively in limited time, with a .937 OPS across 25 games. He is likely limited to a reserve role with the team moving forward unless they fail to sign a shortstop during the upcoming offseason.

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PRE-ARBITRATION

There are several projected members of the Phillies 2022 roster who have yet to reach arbitration, which occurs after a player has accrued at least three years of service time. These players will make the major league minimum of $700,000 for the season.

Here are the players currently on the 40-man roster that aren’t yet arbitration eligible:

3B Alec Bohm
RHP Andrew Bellatti
RHP Connor Brogdon
LHP Bailey Falter
IF/OF Dalton Guthrie
1B/DH Darick Hall
SS Bryson Stott
OF Matt Vierling
CF Brandon Marsh
IF/OF Nick Maton
RHP Nick Nelson
C Garrett Stubs
RHP Michael Plassmeyer
OF Símon Muzziotti
RHP James McArthur
RHP Luis Ortiz
C Rafael Marchan
LHP Andrew Vasquez
OF Jhailyn Ortiz
RHP Francisco Morales
RHP Vinny Nittoli
LHP Cristopher Sánchez
C Donny Sands
RHP Tayler Scott

Certainly, at least a few of these players won’t be on the 40-man roster come Opening Day. Others may remain on the 40-man roster but no end up playing in the majors next season for the Phillies.

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SUMMARY

According to Fangraphs, the Phillies luxury tax payroll currently sums to roughly $242 million, which is $9 million over the $233 million tax threshold, and $11 million under the next tier of $253 million.

Assuming that ownership remains willing to exceed the first threshold as they did in 2022, when they spent an estimated $242 million, they have plenty of flexibility. They have already addressed the biggest areas of need with the signings of Turner, Walker and Strahm, but can continue to add bullpen arms in addition to a first-half replacement for Harper throughout the rest of the offseason.

The Phillies created unexpected momentum to end the 2022 season. So far this offseason, they have seized the momentum and look to enter 2023 with an improved roster.