If it comes down to Dansby Swanson, the Phillies should re-sign Jean Segura instead
The Phillies are pursuing the top four free agent shortstops. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson have all either met with the Phillies or are scheduled to meet with them in the coming days, according to a report from The Athletic.
While speaking to the London Ontario Sports Association on November 29, Phillies manager Rob Thomson casually mentioned that he was flying to Atlanta the next day. Now knowing that the Phillies have planned in-person meetings with all four shortstops, you can connect the dots and infer that he and the Phillies brass were going to meet with Swanson, who is from the Atlanta area.
Jon Morosi of MLB Network also mentioned the Phillies as having “active interest” in Swanson. The Cubs are also in on Swanson.
It’s great that the Phillies are checking all the boxes. There’s no harm in being thorough in their search for a new middle infielder. At the same time, we shouldn’t look at this free agent class of shortstops as “the big four.” It’s Correa, Turner, Bogaerts — and then Swanson.
Swanson, like Turner and Bogaerts, posted a six-win season in his walk year, but his track record as an offensive player falls short relative to the other three shortstops the Phillies can choose from this offseason.
The market knows Swanson is the fourth-best option available. Bogaerts is projected to get over or around $200 million in the open market. Correa could get $300 million. Turner has an outside chance of being a $300 million player, but he’s likely to get over $250 million. Swanson could eclipse $150 million. Even at that price for Swanson, the Phillies are probably better off re-signing second baseman Jean Segura and keeping Bryson Stott at shortstop.
There’s a lot to like about Swanson. For starters, he’s durable. He started every game at shortstop for Atlanta in 2022 outside of a meaningless regular season finale. He hasn’t been on the injured list since 2019.
Swanson is also the best defender and the most likely to stay at shortstop for the duration of the contract. While it’s strange to say a good defender up the middle isn’t the best fit on a Phillies roster that could use improvement on the defensive side, Swanson’s offensive track record does not warrant a pricey long-term commitment.
2022 was an impressive season at the plate for Swanson, who slashed .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs. And while he was already considered a good defender at short, he elevated his game last year and took home his first career Gold Glove Award. Last season was by far the best of his career.
The issue is that last season was his only full season in which he was an above average offensive producer. Before this season, Swanson had a 90 OPS+ for his career, which is 10% worse than league average.
Swanson is also streaky. It’s not necessarily a bad trait as all hitters are streaky to a certain extent and Swanson could carry an offense for a month. But with the Phillies already having Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins in the lineup, two notoriously streaky hitters, it might not be the best idea for the Phillies to add another up and down bat to the lineup.
Swanson has had an OPS below .700 in 12 months in which he has played at least 20 games since 2017. To compare, Hoskins has had six. Correa has had seven. Bogaerts has two and Turner has one.
In a way, he’s in the middle of a career that resembles a current Phillies Hall of Fame candidate. Jimmy Rollins was an excellent defender at shortstop, remembered as “a winning player” and outside of a few incredible offensive seasons, was statistically below average as a top of the order hitter. Maybe if the Phillies signed Swanson, they would be betting that Swanson could have a season or two that resembles Rollins’ 2007 MVP campaign. One of those seasons might have come last year.
A deal for Swanson might seem more reasonable if he were to cost around $80 to $100 million, but in this market, that doesn’t seem to be the case. If the Phillies strike out with Turner, Correa and Bogaerts, it may be wise to give Segura a contract similar to Didi Gregorius’ two-year, $28 million deal signed before the 2021 season and use the money saved on pitching.
While Segura has durability concerns, he may be the most underrated free agent on the market. He’s a plus defender at second base and has steadily improved since his first season with the Phillies in 2019. Stott and Segura have worked well as a double play pairing as well. It’s not a bad backup plan for the Phillies, who seem hell bent on paying up for a shortstop this offseason.
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