Any of the following words could be used to describe the 2023 Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation: Deep. Talented. Improved.
One thing it is not: Invincible. And, more than any other, that fact is the one the Phillies should keep at the front of their collective mind heading into the regular season.
Six-man rotations rarely make a ton of sense for Major League clubs to employ, if only for obvious competitive reasons: Why would you want fewer starts from your best starters, and more from your worst? But rarely do teams find themselves in a position like the one the Phillies do, fresh off their magical run to the World Series that ended deeper into the calendar than any World Series in the history of the World Series.
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a huge reason for the Phillies’ National League pennant in the first place, but each of them — especially Nola — fatigued as the season came to a close. Nola set a career-high in total innings this season, and Wheeler’s heavy workload (plus a September injured list stint) came after leading baseball in innings pitched in 2021.
Ranger Suárez just blew out of the water his previous career-high in innings pitched this season — after doing the same the year before. Taijuan Walker, the latest addition to the Phillies’ rotation, has been relatively durable the past couple years, but he’s dealt with his share of injuries in his career, tends to fall off in the second half and is now in his 30s.
And, perhaps most crucially as it pertains to the next decade of Phillies baseball, top prospect and potential generational talent Andrew Painter, one of a few contenders for the final rotation spot that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has earmarked for one of the organization’s young talents, is 19 years old.
A six-man rotation wouldn’t simply cater to the needs of one starter who could use an extra breather. It would cater to the needs of five. What’s more: Barring an acquisition, that sixth spot (assuming Painter holds the fifth), would likely go to Bailey Falter — who may not be a long-term rotation mainstay but was more than capable while filling in for Wheeler down the stretch and compiled an ERA of 3.00 from Aug. 20 to the end of the regular season.
Of course, he’s no Wheeler or Nola, meaning extra Falter starts would usually be a bad thing. But is that true if those two aces — now experiencing the shortest offseason of their respective careers — are exhausted by May?
If the Phillies were to trot out Wheeler, Nola and co. every fifth day in a traditional five-man rotation, one must consider whether it’s worth the risk. Sure, there’s a chance that such a workload doesn’t take a toll, and everyone remains at their freshest all year. If you’re focusing on regular season win total, that’s the best-case scenario.
But the Phillies just fell two wins shy of a World Series championship, then bolstered an already-quite-good rotation largely responsible for getting them there and signed the best shortstop in baseball. They will be a popular pick to win the National League East, even in a crowded field. They will be a not-outlandish one to repeat as NL champs. And more than zero people will tab them to take home all the marbles.
Are a few extra Falter starts — even if he’s not the Falter of late-regular-season 2022 — the difference between another postseason run and the start of a new playoff drought?
File this one for later, Freezing Cold Takes, but I’ll go with a resounding no.
If that prediction ages like milk, fine (well, not fine). Abort mission, and throw your best starters every fifth day in the second half — or earlier, if things really go south.
But until then, the Phillies have five starters who could use — as Gabe Kapler might put it — “a blow.” They have six starters who are plenty capable of regularly taking the hill on a Major League mound. And, for now, they have every reason in the world to capitalize on that fact.
Sometimes, the obvious choice is indeed the correct one.
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