Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Sam Fuld says Phillies would be ‘foolish’ not to try to retain Aaron Nola ‘for as long as possible’

Aaron Nola is the longest-tenured Phillie. (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Outside of whether No. 1 overall prospect Andrew Painter will be able to make the Opening Day roster, Aaron Nola’s future with the Philadelphia Phillies will likely be the top story in Spring Training for the club.

The Phillies, without thinking twice, exercised Nola’s $16 million club option for 2023. This came after a season where he led all pitchers with a 6.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs. To say that four-year/$45 million deal — which, with the option exercised, has turned into a five-year/$61 million deal — Nola is wrapping up has been a team-friendly pact would be putting it lightly.

As Nola and his representation at Paragon Sports International look forward to his second major payday, it’s clear that the 30-year-old will be looking for a significantly larger deal this time around.

And the Phillies should seemingly be eager to appease Nola. The former first-round pick may not be an ace in the sense that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee were, but over the past five seasons, he’s posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.24 FIP across an MLB-leading 871 2/3 innings pitched.

So have president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld and the Phillies begun talking about a new deal with Nola’s team?

“I think there’s been some loose dialogue, not necessarily just now, but really over an extended period of time,” Fuld said earlier this week at the Philadelphia Sportswriters Association dinner.

“I mean, we love Aaron,” Fuld continued. “Obviously, he was a huge part of our run to the World Series, of course. But I think he’s been a big part of our culture and he’s really been a rock in that rotation. So I think it’s foolish not to try to keep a guy like that in your organization for as long as possible.”

The Phillies do have the aforementioned Painter likely to make his Major League Debut at some point in 2023, and it’s possible that the organization’s two other top prospects — Mick Abel and Griff McGarry — also do the same.

The fact that the Phillies believe they have three potential impact starting pitchers on the cusp of the majors could serve as a nice insurance policy if they were to lose Nola after the 2023 season.

Make no mistake, though, it would be almost impossible to lose Nola and not become a worse team. The Phillies hope that all three of Painter, Abel and McGarry become frontline starting pitchers, but chances are that at least one of them won’t. The most exciting part for the Phillies about having potentially the three best pitching prospects since Nola himself is that they could eventually join him in the rotation.

Additionally, Zack Wheeler can become a free agent after the 2024 season. He’s been excellent across his first three seasons with the Phillies, and if he continues on this course, one would think they would like to retain him beyond his current five-year/$118 million deal.

But if you had to bet on whether Nola or Wheeler will age better, the former would probably have the edge because he’s never relied on throwing in the high 90s and hasn’t already undergone Tommy John surgery once. (Nola is also three years younger than Wheeler, who will turn 33 in May.)

As we previously noted, Carlos Rodón landed a six-year/$162 million deal in free agency from the New York Yankees this offseason. He’s a year younger than Nola will be if he reaches free agency, but he has more health concerns and less of an overall track record. From the perspective of Nola, the Rodón deal feels like the starting point for the type of contract he should pursue. And given that he’s en route to being one of the greatest pitchers in Phillies history, they may be inclined to meet that asking price.

If Painter is immediately an impact pitcher, the Phillies will have one of baseball’s best rotations in 2023 with him, Nola, Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker. And yes, it would be foolish not to try to keep that group of pitchers together for multiple seasons.