Should Aaron Nola or Zack Wheeler start for Phillies on Opening Day?

Barring injury, two-time National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom will get the ball for the Texas Rangers on March 30, when they kick off a highly-anticipated 2023 season by hosting the Philadelphia Phillies.

Who will toe the rubber for the defending NL Champions?

Of course, plenty can happen between Jan. 6 and March 30, which could render this conversation moot. Cliff Lee started, in Texas, on Opening Day in 2014 because Cole Hamels was out with biceps tendinitis. Aaron Nola got the ball on Opening Day in 2022 because Zack Wheeler — who had finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting the prior season — wasn’t ready to start the first game of the season after dealing with offseason shoulder soreness.

But if both Nola and Wheeler are healthy this time around, it will be interesting to see who gets the nod to square off against deGrom.

Nola has made five consecutive Opening Day starts, and FanGraphs says that he led all starting pitchers with a 6.3 WAR in 2022. The only other starter in franchise history to make six consecutive Opening Day starts is Hall of Famer Steve Carlton, who got the ball to open the season every year between 1977 and 1986. (In total, Carlton made 14 Opening Day starts as a Phillie, a franchise record unlikely to ever be matched.)

But while you’re initial inclination would be to stick with someone with such a lengthy track record of pitching in the first game of the season, it’s not as though Wheeler is a young arm that lacks big-game experience. He started Games 1 of the NLWCS and NLCS this past season, while also turning in six strong innings in sub-optimal weather conditions in Game 5 of the NLCS, which saw the Phillies clinch the NL pennant.

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It’s fair to wonder if Wheeler would have been the Opening Day starter in 2022 had he been physically ready for the opportunity. Now entering his age-33 season, Wheeler has never had the chance to pitch on Opening Day. Perhaps, even if it means snapping Nola’s streak, Rob Thomson will give Wheeler a shot to open the 2023 season.

Nola, the longest-tenured player on the Phillies, is entering a contract year. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been very complimentary of Nola since taking over, and it’s clear that the Phillies would like to keep the former first-round pick in red pinstripes beyond 2023. But to do that, it will likely take a deal in excess of the six-year/$162 million pact that Carlos Rodón signed with the New York Yankees this offseason.

We’ll see if the Phillies are willing to do what it takes financially to retain Nola beyond this upcoming season. If not, Wheeler — who would be entering the final year of his five-year/$118 million contract — could be in line to be the Opening Day starter in 2024. Perhaps it will be his second consecutive nod to kick off the season.

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