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What might a Rhys Hoskins contract extension look like?

Rhys Hoskins is under contract for one more season. (Don Otto)

Rhys Hoskins, the longest-tenured position player on the Phillies, has an uncertain future in Philadelphia beyond this year. Entering his third season of arbitration, the veteran first baseman is set to become a free agent at the end of 2023.

Hoskins, since bursting on the scene in the final 50 games of the 2017 season, has been a more-than-solid contributor, his scorching hot streaks outweighing the defensive blunders and unproductive stretches at the plate. In the last six seasons, the 29-year-old ranks 12th in fWAR among qualified major-league first basemen (11.5), 10th in wRC+ (125) and seventh in home runs (148) in only 667 games; all six first basemen above Hoskins in homers in that stretch have played at least 726 games.

Of course, Hoskins is a player with flaws, but finding a replacement for him after this season would not be an easy task. There’s no apparent full-time fill-in within the Phillies system, and an external acquisition could cost more in terms of dollars or prospects than the team would want to give up. Not to mention, the homegrown talent has solidified himself as a fixture in both the team’s clubhouse and in franchise lore after this past fall’s run to the World Series.

Keeping Hoskins on a new deal could be the route the Phillies decide to take. But what might that agreement look like? The details of some other first basemen’s contracts might be able to provide some insight.

Hoskins — due to receive an estimated $12.8 million in arbitration in 2023, according to Spotrac — is likely not slated for a contract of the caliber of the deals former NL MVP first basemen Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million) and Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130 million). And turning 30 in March, he probably won’t see something with the length of the eight-year, $168 million extension that Matt Olson signed in Atlanta at age 27, even if the $21 million average annual value could be comparable.

Houston’s recent deal with José Abreu might be an indicator for what Hoskins could get from the Phillies. The soon-to-be 36-year-old signed a three-year, $58.5 contract with the Astros this winter. With a 138 wRC+ in 2022, Abreu is coming off a better season than any of Hoskins’ full years in the majors, but his age is a concern that Hoskins wouldn’t need to worry about.

Hoskins and Abreu figure to be in a similar tier of production over the next few seasons, and a number around the $19.5 million average annual value that Abreu received could make sense for Hoskins — as long as its over a longer period of time.

An extension that would pay Hoskins between $97.5 million and $105 million over the five years after his current deal expires could be what gets it done. Time will only tell if the that’s the approach the Phillies will take.