Is Bryce Harper still on a path to hit 500 home runs?

As the dust settled following the most iconic home run of Bryce Harper’s career, the significance of the play started to come into perspective. His game-winning, eighth-inning drive into the left-field seats in Game 5 of the 2022 NLCS not only sent the Phillies to the World Series for the first time since 2009, but presented itself as the signature moment for one of baseball’s biggest stars and a likely future Hall of Famer.

With two NL MVPs, seven All-Star selections and now a dominant postseason run under his belt, Harper has built a resume that should land him in Cooperstown when his playing days conclude. The one milestone that could be missing for him that other sluggers of his caliber do have, however, is eclipsing the 500 career home run mark.

Once thought of as the benchmark for a premier Hall of Fame power hitter, there are 28 members of the 500 home run club in the history of the major leagues. After winning NL Rookie of the Year as a 19-year-old in 2012 and putting up a 42-homer MVP campaign as a 22-year-old in 2015 for the Nationals, there was a time where it appeared as if Harper was destined to join that list. But due to both injury and a shortened 2020 season, the 30-year-old’s path there will not be easy.

Entering his 12th season in the bigs, Harper sits at 285 career home runs in the regular season. He’s averaged 33 home runs per 162 games in his career, and, with nine seasons left on his 13-year deal in Philadelphia, he has time to reach the 215 long balls remaining.

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The issue for Harper is going to be games played, which have kept him from making up more ground in recent seasons. The pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign limited Harper to 13 home runs in 58 games, and injuries to his elbow and thumb limited him to 18 home runs in 99 games in 2022.

Harper needs to average 23.9 home runs per season for the duration of his Phillies contract to reach 500 for his career. But that will start off with a limited 2023 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery that he underwent this winter on his injured elbow, setting him up to return as a DH in the summer.

From there, Harper will still have a decent shot to stay on pace in 2024 and beyond, as long as he remains healthy. Of course, that’s no guarantee, having dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career; Harper has only played 147 or more games in a season four times.

Still, Harper is one of the more feared hitters in baseball when he’s on the field with a good stretch of time to rack up homers. It’s far from a lock at this stage in his career, but — if Harper’s body can hold up as he ages — the 500 home run club is still attainable for the superstar.

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