Keith Law — the preeminent prospect expert in baseball, who currently writes for The Athletic — is bullish on Philadelphia Phillies pitching prospect Andrew Painter. Law recently ranked Painter as the third best pitching prospect in baseball, and No. 13 overall at any position.
Appearing on The Phillies Nation Podcast this week, Law told host Nathan Ackerman that he sees a “big, huge, strong pitcher who can hold his velocity and whose fastball really does play.”
But Law believes that Painter — who won’t turn 20 until April 10 — would be best served beginning the 2023 season in the minors, as opposed to being the No. 5 starter for the defending National League Champions.
While there’s already a lot to like about a fastball that has touched the high-90s and an impressive curveball, Law thinks that it’s imperative for Painter to develop a consistent third pitch. The former first-round pick does have a slider in his repertoire, but Law says that Painter’s changeup is the pitch most likely to become a weapon for him on top of his fastball and curveball. And it’s easier to have him focus on developing the changeup at Triple-A Lehigh Valley than it would be at Citizens Bank Park.
“… I feel like if they put him on the Major League roster … like obviously he’s got the two pitches right now to help a Major League team in some capacity … maybe it’s long relief or the bullpen, I like the idea of breaking starters in like that … but this guy has No. 1 starter upside,” Law said. “And to me, you set aside short-term needs to do everything you can to get this guy to his No. 1 starter upside.
“This is best pitcher in the National League at some point in his career type of upside. I don’t mean the 99th percentile, this is a reasonable upside we’re talking about for him. But there are steps he has to take to get there.”
Phillies manager Rob Thomson told the collective media Thursday — including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer — that Painter is competing with Bailey Falter, Cristopher Sánchez, Nick Nelson and Michael Plassmeyer for the final spot in the starting rotation.
As far back as last summer, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hinted at being aggressive in terms of promoting some of the team’s young pitching talent, which Painter is at the forefront of. Josh Beckett debuted for the Florida Marlins in 2001, his age-21 season. Justin Verlander did so at age 22 for the Detroit Tigers in 2005. Dombrowski led both front offices when said promotions were made, and Beckett and Verlander developed into two of the best pitchers in baseball.
Could Painter be next?
Law didn’t rule out changing his mind on whether Painter should be in Texas with the Phillies when they open their 2023 slate on March 30, but admitted he’s unlikely to alter his thought process in the coming weeks.
“I guess if he shows up in Clearwater this week and suddenly it’s a wipeout changeup and we see that over the course of March, I’d have to revisit that,” Law acknowledged.
“That’s not very likely. And honestly, I’d just feel more confident even if he went to Triple-A for a month to start the year. And if we see at the end of that month that the changeup is turning out to be a real weapon for him and the other stuff hasn’t changed … the other two pitches are there and he’s still throwing strikes … OK, great. You know what? May 1, call him up.
“You really haven’t lost much at that point, but you’ve at least increased your confidence level and given him a chance to do that if he does need to make further adjustments to that pitch, as opposed to doing it for a Major League team that is expecting to go back to the playoffs to try to go back to the World Series this year.”
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