As Manny Machado prepares to opt out, Bryce Harper’s deal looks even better

In November of 2018, I penned a column early in my time at Phillies Nation entitled “13 years is a lot … for any potential free agent.”

The gist was that one of the reasons that someone like Bryce Harper was such an intriguing free agent was that he was reaching the market ahead of his age-26 season. If you signed Harper to a 10-year deal, you would only be paying him through his age-35 season. One of the reasons that decade-long deals often don’t work out is that former stars often see a steep decline in their age-36 through 40 seasons. But because Harper and Manny Machado had reached free agency at such a young age, you could sign them to 10-year deals and avoid having half a decade of lean years at the end of a major contract.

So when the Phillies initially signed Harper to a 13-year/$330 million deal in March of 2019, my belief was that while the Phillies had made the right decision to choose Harper over Machado, the 10-year/$300 million deal that Machado had inked with the San Diego Padres was a better value.

Four-and-a-half years later, that opinion, while well reasoned at the time, appears to be incorrect.

Both Harper and Machado have lived up to their contracts, to the point that each look relatively team-friendly entering the 2023 season. Harper won the National League MVP in 2021 and the NLCS MVP in 2022, as the Phillies disposed of Machado and the Padres en route to a World Series berth. Machado has finished in the top three in NL MVP voting in two of the last three seasons, and if you can’t yet refer to him as “a future Hall of Famer,” we’re not far off from being able to do so.

The difference now is that there isn’t any question about Harper’s future in Philadelphia. After years of speculation about what team he would sign with after the 2018 season, Harper insisted on not having any opt-out clauses in his long-anticipated deal. He’s entering the fifth season of a 13-year deal, and barring something unforeseen, he’s going to play for the Phillies through the 2031 season. He’ll be 38 during the 2031 season, his 20th season in the league.

But while Machado and the Padres will enter 2023 with perhaps the best roster in the senior circuit, what he, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. can do together isn’t the early talking point in camp for San Diego.

Instead, Machado’s announcement that he will opt out of his current contract after the conclusion of the 2023 season has become the biggest story in the sport.

“So far this year, I’m a Padre, but who knows next year,” Machado said Friday, according to MLB.com‘s Jack Magruder. “Obviously the team knows where I stand, my situation, with the opt-out coming. I think I’ve expressed that I will be opting out after this year, but my focus is not about 2024.”

Machado may not be thinking about 2024, but he knows the power of his words. Every time he homers in 2023 or makes an excellent play at third base, the pressure will increase on Padres general manager A.J. Preller to make sure that the six-time All-Star finishes his career with the franchise.

And while Friday’s words could be interpreted as Machado using the commencement of Spring Training to put pressure on the organization to lock him up to a new deal before the regular season starts, evidently that’s not the case. According to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune, Machado wanted any new deal to be completed before Feb. 16. The Padres did offer him a five-year/$105 million extension, on top of the $30 million he would make in each of the next five seasons if he didn’t opt out after the season. Evidently, Machado believes he can top what would have amounted to a 10-year/$255 million deal. And he probably is right.

There’s something to be said for just getting five peak years from a Hall of Fame-caliber player and then letting them walk if they opt out. There’s a good chance that if Machado signs another 10-year deal this offseason — when he’ll have already celebrated his 31st birthday — it won’t age particularly well. But while that case may sound good in theory, it’s not practical.

In just four seasons, Machado has cemented his place among the greatest players in franchise history in San Diego. Owner Peter Seidler has taken what was once perhaps the most irrelevant franchise in the league and turned them into a powerhouse. Machado has been at the forefront of that, and even as the Padres continue to make major investments in star players, they will unquestionably be a worse team from 2024-2028 if they allow their third baseman to depart next offseason.

Through 4 years, who has been better — Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

So, they probably won’t. There’s sure to be major pressure from the fanbase in San Diego to re-sign Machado next winter, and the guess here is that the Padres will do that.

From there, though, the comparison contractually between Harper and Machado will be non-existent.

Would the Phillies have preferred to sign Harper for, say, 11 years when he was a free agent? Probably. But in an effort to top the longest contract in MLB history — at that time it was Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year/325 million deal — the Phillies committed to 13 years with Harper. His age-37 and 38 seasons may very well be underwhelming compared to his peak.

But if Machado opts out and signs another 10-year deal with the Padres that begins in 2024, he’ll be under contract through his age-41 season. And given that the aforementioned Bogaerts and Trea Turner signed for 11 years this past offseason, Machado may get even more than a decade if he’s coming off of another MVP-caliber season.

What’s more, the $32 million that Machado will make in 2023 will be just the 12th highest in the sport. His average annual value in his current contract — which is what counts against the luxury tax threshold — is $30 million. Let’s say Machado opts out and signs a 10-year/$380 million deal. Both of those numbers will spike next year and moving forward.

Meanwhile, 19 players will make more than Harper’s $27.54 million salary in 2023, which is almost laughable. At first blush, a 10-year deal may have looked better than a 13-year deal for Harper. But with $330 million spread out over 13 years, Harper will count $25.38 million towards the luxury tax threshold for the entirety of his time in red pinstripes. That feels extremely team-friendly now, and even if there are some lean years at the end of the 13-year deal for Harper, it’s not an amount that will cripple the Phillies as the luxury tax threshold continues to rise. Perhaps that’s why managing partner John Middleton joked that he had “underpaid” Harper with his $330 million deal after the Phillies won the NL Pennant in 2022.

There won’t be a “Sign Bryce” campaign in 2023. There won’t be any debates about whether it’s wise to give a player already in his early 30s another 10-year deal. Harper will be a Phillie through his age-38 season, rain or shine. And as Machado prepares to seek a significantly larger contract that will tie him to the Padres into his early-40s, 13 years for Harper feels like an appropriate cost of doing business.

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